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Attachments: Daily Cable Analysis
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Daily Cable Analysis

  • #8,181
  • Dec 25, 2007 2:04pm Dec 25, 2007 2:04pm
RED FIBO

Low 1.8836 11/17/2007
High 1.9914 1/23/2007
Price dipped to a 61.8 area on 1/7/2007 also in this fibo.

61.8% Completion on 3/5/2007

BLUE FIBO
Low 1.9181
High 2.0131

50% Completion at 1.9656 on 6/8/2007 and remained there for 7 days before breaking upward to test the high at 2.0131 and breaking and staying above on 7/10/2007
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GU Chart #3 Daily Fibo.GIF Size: 43 KB
  • #8,182
  • Dec 25, 2007 2:16pm Dec 25, 2007 2:16pm
This is the chart where you will see that the HIGH is reached and were starting to get a BEARISH momentum to take over the BULLS.

THE RED FIBO
Low 1.9619 6/8/2007
High 2.0650 7/24/2007

We can see that the move downward made a big move near the starting point and supported at 1.9649 on the 8/17/2007, just 30 pips above the low we started the move on.

Based on the move down to test the 1.9619 area, I am now looking at the price which is in the 1.9700 area as we analyze the charts heading down to once again test the 1.9649/1.9619 area.

If Price drops below this 1.9619, then we must consider the move down as a new down trend and begin our Fibo counts from the top down.

In Chart #5 which I will post next, we will take a look at the overall trend change that could be taking place by the 1st of January 2008.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GU Chart #4 Daily Fibo.GIF Size: 50 KB
  • #8,183
  • Dec 25, 2007 2:35pm Dec 25, 2007 2:35pm
Okay, this will be my last chart for now.

I have red/blue/yellow lines showing the fibo levels as we neared the top.

The first two RED moves up completed the 61.8 and then the 38.2 levels.

On the Blue Lines we see the 76.4 was completed and finally a new lower area came into effect on the first RED line down from the top on the right of the HIGH reached.

Then we have the two RED FIBO's coming down, the first and second both completed the 61.8 Fib levels.

We are now in the YELLOW FIB MOVE, which has taken us from the high of 2.0576 down to the low right now at 1.9753, but this could continue down to the 1.9400 area before making it's retracement move.

If price stalls in the 1.9753 (NOW) the fibo levels are:
23.6 - 1.9947
38.2 - 2.0067
50% - 2.0164
61.8 - 2.0262

If price continues to the MONTHLY FIBO at 1.9430 then we would have the following fibo levels to adjust:
23.6 - 1.9701
38.2 - 1.9868
50% - 2.0003
61.8 - 2.0138

I will make adjustments as price continues later in the week.

Have a Great Christmas Day, time to break for the FEAST.

Enjoy.

Ken

NOTE: Price as of 3:30 pm EST was GU> 1.9815

CLICK ON CHARTS TO ENLARGE >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GU Chart #5 Daily Fibo.GIF Size: 27 KB
  • #8,184
  • Dec 26, 2007 7:52am Dec 26, 2007 7:52am
The market opened on my MT4 charts on Christmas day at 1.9773, but I had received an alert from Interbank earlier in the day that price dipped below 1.9740.

The four hour chart has moved up slowly with 3 small bullish candles, with the present candle shaping up like a nice doji.

1 hour left before the 4 hour closes and price has reached upwards to 1.9848, a modest gain of 75 pips since the chart opened yesterday.

Price should range much of today before the news release tomorrow, so I am going to take a nice break till then and do some constructive work. LOL

Will check back in late tonight to see where the GU stands.

Have a great day folks.

Ken
  • #8,185
  • Dec 26, 2007 11:03pm Dec 26, 2007 11:03pm
Okay folks, after a nice day of working outside the office we are nearing the Frankfurt and London Open.

The 4 hour candles have slowly risen from the low 1.9753 up to the recent high at 1.9873, 120 pips.

I am watching the small fibo move on the Daily candles for now:

High 2.0224
Low 1.9753

23.6 - 1.9864 (completed in the present 4 hour candle)
38.2 - 1.9993
50% - 1.9989
61.8 - 2.0044

I have 3 trades Long for now:
2.0037
1.9890
1.9810
Average Entry: 1.9913

The 1.9735 entry missed by 18 pips yesterday.

Target Price
Release 2 entries @ 2.0012
Release 1 entry @ 2.0112

I will let the news take it's course the next 12 hours.

Cheers,
  • #8,186
  • Dec 26, 2007 11:38pm Dec 26, 2007 11:38pm
This Chart is showing each Fibo move in Purple with the Fibo now in progress in RED.

Based on the Daily Fibo, the 61.8% connects with the upper and lower trend lines at 2.0160. The Yellow Circle.

Also if you run a Fibo Expansion from the Daily open at 2.1067 on 11/9/2007 down to the open at the daily 2.0432 on 11/16/2007 and back up to the close at 2.0800 you will have the 100% Fibo expansion at 2.0164, the same as the 61.8% retracement on the move in progress.

Also using the same Fibo Expansion as noted, you will have the 161.8% fibo expansion at 1.9776, the low we just achieved yesterday.

Note: This is not a trade recommendation!

Please feel free to add your analysis on the GU.

Ken
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GU Daily Chart 12-26-2007.GIF Size: 22 KB
  • #8,187
  • Dec 26, 2007 11:45pm Dec 26, 2007 11:45pm
Also, looking to the left, the 61.8% fib and trend line are at confluence with old support which is now resistance, now we have to wait for news..

A



Quoting monarch
This Chart is showing each Fibo move in Purple with the Fibo now in progress in RED.

Based on the Daily Fibo, the 61.8% connects with the upper and lower trend lines at 2.0160. The Yellow Circle.

Also if you run a Fibo Expansion from the Daily open at 2.1067 on 11/9/2007 down to the open at the daily 2.0432 on 11/16/2007 and back up to the close at 2.0800 you will have the 100% Fibo expansion at 2.0164, the same as the 61.8% retracement on the move in progress.

Also using the same Fibo Expansion as noted, you will have the 161.8% fibo expansion at 1.9776, the low we just achieved yesterday.
  • #8,188
  • Edited Dec 27, 2007 12:28am Dec 26, 2007 11:59pm | Edited Dec 27, 2007 12:28am
Quoting AlexFX
Also, looking to the left, the 61.8% fib and trend line are at confluence with old support which is now resistance, now we have to wait for news..

A
True indeed.

I changed my Daily from a Candle to a LINE Chart and the last low (valley) is right at 2.0160 - the 61.8% Fibo Retracement Line.

I am looking to release my final lot 50 pips below this area, and will start to add shorts in this area.

Of course the News could place this into a fallout real quick, if that were the case, then my trades would take a plunge and my lower entries would come into play.

I was expecting the 1.9660 area prior to test of the 2 area, but we can never tell if it wants to retrace sooner or later.

We shall soon find out.

This is a long term trade I am in, so it may take a week, or a month, or today.
(note: I have only 3 Longs entered at this moment, but have 11 more entries waiting below, which was explained in the last few pages on the thread).

Remember, this is only one strategy I am using, but it is not the only trades I am taking, be careful with money management if your taking multiple entries.

Cheers, time to go to sleep till US News time tomorrow.

Ken
  • #8,189
  • Dec 27, 2007 7:43am Dec 27, 2007 7:43am
Negative US News propels the GU higher then most expected.

The 38.2 fibo at 1.9936 has been completed and now striking upwards to the 50% at 1.9989.

Originally my targets were in the 2's area, but I have backed off somewhat with the news being real close to expectation, therefore, I have taken some profit at the 38.2 area (1.9940), and will release my final entries at the 50% at 1.9985.

That will complete this phase of LONGS and I will evaluate the market again after Daily candle closes.
  • #8,190
  • Dec 29, 2007 2:04pm Dec 29, 2007 2:04pm
Monarch no offense but averaging in 10 lots like that? You might want to remember 1981.
  • #8,191
  • Dec 30, 2007 12:19am Dec 30, 2007 12:19am
Well, this is what I see, we could have a resistance point with the daily canddle (spinning top = indecision) @ 1.9967. If that resistance is broken, next resistance will be @ 61.8% - 2.020 area then go down to 1.96 area.

Excuse my english, it is my second language
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBP-USD DIC.30-2007 Fibo analisis.png Size: 48 KB
  • #8,192
  • Dec 31, 2007 7:31am Dec 31, 2007 7:31am
Quoting faqcya
Monarch no offense but averaging in 10 lots like that? You might want to remember 1981.
Actually I had planned 14 lots of entry. LOL.

I do not start buying/selling until I see a very strong supp/res area, and when price looks overextended which it was at my time of entry.

I only had 3 lots in (I was hoping for a deeper drop) with this past LONG trade, and all 3 lots cleared profits very easy. Now the GU is up at 2.0100, and heading to 2.0200 or so before we see some point of resistance.

I am currently not in GU, but will anticipate later in the week on taking Shorts depending on the type of Daily candles we start to get.

I have a Journal of trades going now, but don't really plan on making too many trades till the holiday's finish.

Cheers.
  • #8,193
  • Feb 22, 2008 5:17am Feb 22, 2008 5:17am
Hello All, hope trading is good!

Seems cable is out of the woods for the time being. The 19400 handle holding again on a daily basis, the charts favor move to 1.9740 - 19867 -19960 - 2 level and Higher. However failure to hold up at these levels shall have bearish implications with a daily/weekly close below 19400 to force to review a move 1.90/1.88 areas.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: CABLE pitchfork daily and weekly.JPG Size: 321 KB
Trading is 80% Emotional, 20% Technical
  • #8,194
  • Feb 22, 2008 5:18am Feb 22, 2008 5:18am
Weekly chart shows the 4 closes above the blue line, indicating the good support area if weekly closes above 1.9800 the momemtum will turn firmly bullish see moves higher next month, however again if fails to hold 1.9400 area then move lower
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: cable weekly.JPG Size: 396 KB
Trading is 80% Emotional, 20% Technical
  • #8,195
  • Feb 22, 2008 5:31am Feb 22, 2008 5:31am
... wrong thread
.
  • #8,196
  • May 26, 2008 11:45pm May 26, 2008 11:45pm
FXLOCAL, Thank you for the nice charts.
  • #8,197
  • May 28, 2008 1:01pm May 28, 2008 1:01pm
Gents,

What do you think of the inverse head & shoulders brewing on the daily chart? Neckline is at 1.9840, monthly pivot. Break of this and retest and I will probably long, may retest previous high around 2.0375 area, according to technicals. Will fundamentals play into this idea?

Last time this pattern arose it failed and produced 400 pips to the downside. I will be ready to trade either way. Caution with the trendline down too.

cheers
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gu528.gif Size: 34 KB
  • #8,198
  • May 28, 2008 2:20pm May 28, 2008 2:20pm
Quoting piptrain
Gents,

What do you think of the inverse head & shoulders brewing on the daily chart? Neckline is at 1.9840, monthly pivot. Break of this and retest and I will probably long, may retest previous high around 2.0375 area, according to technicals. Will fundamentals play into this idea?

Last time this pattern arose it failed and produced 400 pips to the downside. I will be ready to trade either way. Caution with the trendline down too.

cheers
I want to add one thing into the above which is NationWide Housing news will be coming at 2:00 pm eastern time that will obviously decide the Cable move. So far the expection would be towards green and if the news would be green then it could easily break 1.9840, monthly pivot and could exceed 1.9900.

If the news would come out in red (which I doubted) then it would follow downtrend to the rest of the London Session towards 1.9650...

So basically tonight UK news would be the king of all the trades in either way.....
  • #8,199
  • Jun 18, 2008 3:37am Jun 18, 2008 3:37am
Why is this forum not current. no current posts to analyse the market
  • #8,200
  • Jun 18, 2008 9:01am Jun 18, 2008 9:01am
chart
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpusd jun18.jpg Size: 164 KB
There is only one Certainty in Trading --- There is no Certainty
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