You are right. 200 is close so it makes my R:R bad for me. There is also a trendline which is acting now as a support. If the price retraces to like 1.5700 level, I will take the TC, close part of the position and move the other BE as soon as possible. I may use pending order if possible to get good entry.
THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN GOOD AND EXCELLENT IS ATTENTION TO DETAILS.
EURUSD has ran for about 80 pips down during last 2 hours without serious retracements. And if to look at lower timeframes (30-5 min), it looks like price may retrace to their EMA21s to about 1.57 before possible continuation down. On 4H that may look like a retracement of between 23.6-38.2% of the signal bar. So I decided to stay away and wait.
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I agree with Yorik for the moment at least, this is the sensible play. The price has support here which needs to be broken. It may even end up being a 50% retracement trade entry which is at 1.5714. Patience.
I entered 1lot @ 1.5680, sl @ daily pp, tp is 200. if 20pips gain, I will trailing sl with 20pips
candle sticks, there is only one picture, this is Phillp's mp3's written version
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I'm in with you on this one Saka. I like the daily chart as well - price has made an 'M' shape that I have in blue. A bit like setup D on Phillips charts that you showed before. I've found these 'M's and 'W's to be pretty reliable in my backtesting.
Tamkras used to talk about nesting dolls as well. Don't have much practise on these, but I think that's the sort of setup that is on the daily charts as well - anybody able to comment more on that? And there is the engulfing bear candle on the daily (yesterday).
Lets see how it goes...
Edit: I'm out for 35 pips as price has hit my TL...although wouldn't be suprised if it keeps going down based on the daily charts. Still too new to this game to take those odds on though
Here's the U/J a couple of hours ago. On the 1hr charts is a 'W' setup in line with 4hr TC. I wasn't there for that one, but these are super reliable. Have backtested over 4years of the E/U (80+ of these sort of signals) and it has 85% success rate...my favourite setup now.
The Euro finally kicked off, except i was not present when it did so and missed a better entry which was for me at the Daily Open line. However, i had a target line at 1.5643 which has just been reached and i have closed both lots for +17 and +25. I made +16 earlier on the Euro also as if fell to the low of the previous day. A total of +58 today.
I was looking at the same graph Napeharm posted and saw what I thought would be a good short entry at the signal of a trend continuation on the MACD. It's not at the 0.0045 line, but is it still strong enough?
Also stop loss. Should it be placed at the end of the long tail or at the 21EMA? I'm still learning the ropes.
I was looking at the same graph Napeharm posted and saw what I thought would be a good short entry at the signal of a trend continuation on the MACD. It's not at the 0.0045 line, but is it still strong enough?
Also stop loss. Should it be placed at the end of the long tail or at the 21EMA? I'm still learning the ropes.
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When i was looking at this trade, there might have been some retracement so i considered a good stop might be the high of the candle body. That would be about a 34 stop. Not as high as the tail or 21ema, far to far away. This was alittle academic for me because i missed my entry because i was not there when the trade began.
Perhaps some other people who took this trade would share their stops and entries. To compare.
I was looking at the same graph Napeharm posted and saw what I thought would be a good short entry at the signal of a trend continuation on the MACD. It's not at the 0.0045 line, but is it still strong enough?
Also stop loss. Should it be placed at the end of the long tail or at the 21EMA? I'm still learning the ropes.
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i was at work on that time,but if i was alive ,i'd enter after the powerfull H1 down candle with stoploss u see in the picture.i think it was best olution because after H4 closed ,the stoploss was very huge .
When i was looking at this trade, there might have been some retracement so i considered a good stop might be the high of the candle body. That would be about a 34 stop. Not as high as the tail or 21ema, far to far away. This was alittle academic for me because i missed my entry because i was not there when the trade began.
Perhaps some other people who took this trade would share their stops and entries. To compare.
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My stoploss was 32 pips, or just over candle open at 1.5717 - as Phillip often says, damage has already been done by the long tail. Entry was 1.5685, several pips into its pullback. I wasn't sure if it would pull back very far due to the strong bull candle, so pretty much entered straight away...
My stoploss was 32 pips, or just over candle open at 1.5717 - as Phillip often says, damage has already been done by the long tail. Entry was 1.5685, several pips into its pullback. I wasn't sure if it would pull back very far due to the strong bull candle, so pretty much entered straight away...
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Using the candle body as a stoploss was a tip Phil showed us the other week and a useful one i feel. I shall bear this in mind.
The tail was really nice, right through 21. I hide my SL slightly above 1.5700 level, as price could retraced to it.
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Great entry Ira, i was cautious and went out of the room whilst i was waiting, and then my entry passed.........so i got in slightly late, but had two lots and an exit planned.......as usual.
I noticed news came out about durable goods orders around the time of the price movement. I don't know if it was a significant chage from expectations, but that's not the point. One of the Phillip's lessons talks about it's not the news but its how traders react to the changes to the charts.
My question is, did people stay away from this trade because it was close to "red" news, or did you just look at the MACD and moving average lines, and candlesticks, which dictated your trade, and not worry about the news.
Did this news count as news worth staying out of the market?
(Perhaps this post is better on my trading journal as I don't want to clutter up the thread and distract from others good learning)
That is a good trade y'all made on the Euro. I need to do some backtesting on the pinbars. I noticed it this morning but not confident in them yet but it obviously works a high percentage of the time.
I noticed news came out about durable goods orders around the time of the price movement. I don't know if it was a significant chage from expectations, but that's not the point. One of the Phillip's lessons talks about it's not the news but its how traders react to the changes to the charts.
My question is, did people stay away from this trade because it was close to "red" news, or did you just look at the MACD and moving average lines, and candlesticks, which dictated your trade, and not worry about the news.
Did this news count as news worth staying out of the market?
(Perhaps this post is better on my trading journal as I don't want to clutter up the thread and distract from others good learning)
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I dont know if anyone stayed out because of the news, they havent said. I was in and out before then, but not to avoid the news. Phils believes as you rightly say, that the news is factored in and therefore the only two news events definitely to be avoided are non farm payroll and US interest rates because they are simply too volatile. If people took the TC Euro trade they might have all had their stops taken out by then so it might not have been an issue. But generally speaking we are trading regardless of most news events. Unless someone wants to offer another view. I hope that has answered your point.I am sure Phil will have other observations to make on these things later.
I dont know if anyone stayed out because of the news, they havent said. I was in and out before then, but not to avoid the news. Phils believes as you rightly say, that the news is factored in and therefore the only two news events definitely to be avoided are non farm payroll and US interest rates because they are simply too volatile. If people took the TC Euro trade they might have all had their stops taken out by then so it might not have been an issue. But generally speaking we are trading regardless of most news events. Unless someone wants to offer another view. I hope that has answered your point.I am sure Phil will have other observations to make on these things later.
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I personally usually stay out when there's high impact news. It feels like russian roulette trading the news even at 4hrs nowadays.
I would rather wait a bit when the trend and S&R are clearer before i take the plunge.
I personally usually stay out when there's high impact news. It feels like russian roulette trading the news even at 4hrs nowadays.
I would rather wait a bit when the trend and S&R are clearer before i take the plunge.
I don't know, what about you guys?
Gd Luck trading! =)
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once i asked this question from master phillip,he says :i dont trade H4 system before ONLY 2 important news: 1-intrest rate 2-NFP ,otherwise he enter the trade if he see any good signal in H4 .aslo he told :if i stayed out during thease kind of low important news ,there will be littlle chances for H4 entries .because always there is some news to be realeased.
(correct me if im wrong phillip)
Another rule being satisfied. Break down through 21ema, pulled back to above it and closed below with that tail driven by news. The only factor was will the 200sma or that bottom trendline or the 89sma be the target.
Plan of action:
Tail has done the damage and driven by news or the reaction by people as a result of the news so stoploss can be 30-40pips. 200sma 20-25 pips away. Will take 50% profit after 20pips and set remainder at BE. Will close at bottom TL if 200 is breached.
Enter at 1.5676
Stoploss 1.5715
TP 1st after 20 and 2nd at 1.5640-30
Edit
50% closed for +20. Set remainder at BE
Edit 2
200 breached so set TP on remainder at 1.5640
