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  • #361
  • May 27, 2008 2:06pm May 27, 2008 2:06pm
Quoting inforthepips
Billy,

U/J is creeping back up to that 104.26 level. Does that still look good to you at this time of day for a short entry or should we look for a new level?
I'm no Billy, but it looks like we should be looking for the next higher level between 140.48 and 104.58.

But with the drop of oil pushing the Dow up, I would be careful since it could shoot up during Asia and Europe and head to the 104.70 or low 105.

But that is just a thought.
  • #362
  • May 27, 2008 5:02pm May 27, 2008 5:02pm
Quoting inforthepips
Billy,

U/J is creeping back up to that 104.26 level. Does that still look good to you at this time of day for a short entry or should we look for a new level?
Its a possibility but not a no brainer. There is a lot of upside potential on this pair and price didnt get a clean move down. Looking at a chart right now it just looks like price has completely stalled in this area. The pair, actually most pairs, "look" due for a correction, but looks can be decieving. There are stronger holds elsewhere surrounding these areas on my charts for all pairs. Price could easily gun for these. Price could also correct here. But sitting and waiting never hurt anybody. If you miss pips so what. Its better than losing pips.
  • #363
  • May 27, 2008 5:11pm May 27, 2008 5:11pm
Thanks! I will wait on that one! Still learning your method. Am also watching Swiss/D for short as you suggested. Any thoughts there?
  • #364
  • Edited 9:07pm May 27, 2008 5:25pm | Edited 9:07pm
Long EUR/USD 1.5638 - 1.5929

Price should move right off the top of that last bar in the uptrend. If price weasels its way down there this week, this is where you want to go long. Ignore the red lines just look at the blue.
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  • #365
  • Edited 5:43pm May 27, 2008 5:26pm | Edited 5:43pm
Quoting inforthepips
Thanks! I will wait on that one! Still learning your method. Am also watching Swiss/D for short as you suggested. Any thoughts there?
Yeah it might coincide with what I just posted here. If they happen at the same time your probability just shot up even further. If EUR happens and price on CHF is around 1.0393, up to 1.0424, that should be a good sell too. Look out for those marks.

Look for the pairs to reverse at the same time. If you've got a no brainer on EUR and CHF is in a potential area, they are highly correlated, so you'll probably see them both switch direction simultaneously. Just dont be wrong or you lose them both. Thats why I have no problems waiting.

Rule #1: Never lose money.
Rule #2: Don't forget rule #1.

That's Rockefeller if I'm not mistaken.
  • #366
  • May 27, 2008 5:57pm May 27, 2008 5:57pm
Here are some levels for EUR/GBP. Clean shot on the monthly if price can go that far. Take this one for a ride if it pays. Stash it in the "dont touch me" account, perhaps. News could break it up though. Not calling it but just a heads up. Have to see what happens when and if it ever gets there.
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  • #367
  • May 27, 2008 6:03pm May 27, 2008 6:03pm
Quoting BillyRayValentine
Mainly the following:
EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/CHF, AUD/USD, USD/JPY and EUR/JPY.

Sometimes I'll look at others but these hold more true to this strategy than others I find.
Its interesting as this, with usd/cad, gives 6 usd based currencys. Does this mean that you are someimes in 6 trades at the same time and also, if you are in multiple trades, how do you choose where to get out. Ie, if a major reversal is coming up on eur/usd do you get out on all your usd based trades? Or do you trade them all independently?

Are you also happy to short GBP/USD and USD/Jpy at the same time as this would mean they are going in opposite directions.

Thanks mate, for everything here

Max
Gravity goes both ways in forex...
  • #368
  • Edited 6:51pm May 27, 2008 6:14pm | Edited 6:51pm
Quoting max pips
Its interesting as this, with usd/cad, gives 6 usd based currencys. Does this mean that you are someimes in 6 trades at the same time and also, if you are in multiple trades, how do you choose where to get out. Ie, if a major reversal is coming up on eur/usd do you get out on all your usd based trades? Or do you trade them all independently?

Are you also happy to short GBP/USD and USD/Jpy at the same time as this would mean they are going in opposite directions.

Thanks mate, for everything here

Max
Hi Max, Independently. The only reason I would be in them at the same time would be if I'm waiting on a longer term position while taking others.

And no to the second question.

If the setup on GBP looks good, trade GBP.
If the setup on JPY looks good, trade JPY.

These are totally different countries and different stimulus is going to move each pair. Many of days where GBP will go up and so will JPY.
Wait for the setup would be my advice. The only reason I said that about CHF and EUR is because they share a strong regional correlation, moreso than some others, but this is just a generalization. I would still wait for the levels.
  • #369
  • May 27, 2008 11:04pm May 27, 2008 11:04pm
Hey Billy Ray. I know the GJ is not your favorite but this monthly chart shows promise. Perhaps fundamentally it is time. What do you think?

**** WARNING**** DO not trade off monthly chart! Those wicks are 300+ pips! DANGER**** DANGER****

Determine entries on smaller Time Frames.
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Energy and persistence conquer all things! Ben Franklin
  • #370
  • May 27, 2008 11:20pm May 27, 2008 11:20pm
Quoting BillyRayValentine

Rule #1: Never lose money.
Rule #2: Don't forget rule #1.

That's Rockefeller if I'm not mistaken.

http://www.helium.com/items/841109-n...y-never-forget
Energy and persistence conquer all things! Ben Franklin
  • #371
  • May 28, 2008 2:46am May 28, 2008 2:46am
163.80 Area seem a tough one for EJ I will see what is happening with euro and yen crosses strength & weakness if it gets there for possible short, I don't like to take breaks on this pair I call it the fake out kid!

Paj
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  • #372
  • May 28, 2008 6:34am May 28, 2008 6:34am
Hi, looking at nzdusd it seems it is starting to go down. I suspect it will go down to 0.7500 area. What do you guys think. I try to get a snapshot of my chart and post it.
  • #373
  • May 28, 2008 7:56am May 28, 2008 7:56am
.



http://www.optionsclearing.com/publi...l/xcal2007.pdf



.
  • #374
  • May 28, 2008 8:00am May 28, 2008 8:00am
Quoting BillyRayValentine
Long EUR/USD 1.5638 - 1.5929

Price should move right off the top of that last bar in the uptrend. If price weasels its way down there this week, this is where you want to go long. Ignore the red lines just look at the blue.
News blew out this trade. Was still good for about +22 or so pips and cycled down on very strong US data. Looking intraday at 1.5600 for a fade buy.
  • #375
  • May 28, 2008 8:11am May 28, 2008 8:11am
EURUSD completed 4hr ABC pattern almost to the pip on that 4hr TL support. It would be very hard to push lower from here but the angle of selloff is so steep I would guess there will be a candle of consolidation down here.
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It really is that easy.
  • #376
  • Edited 5:34pm May 28, 2008 5:13pm | Edited 5:34pm
Long USD/JPY 104.38 - 104.33

On an intraday basis, this level should pay off in normal market conditions. I'm uncertain as to its continuation though. From a technical perspective, I'm still long dollar biased. Fundamentally not as much. Yen is in a funnel right now waiting for a breakout. If the next move is up, the strongest levels of resistance are appx. 105.45 to 105.59.
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  • #377
  • May 28, 2008 5:53pm May 28, 2008 5:53pm
Short EUR/USD 1.5697 - 1.5710

Long EUR/USD 1.5547 - 1.5532

I'm marking up this chart for the long and short because these are the strongest zones in either direction. For the short, make a note that there is a diagonal, downward sloping trendline on a short term chart that could also come into play if price continues up. Look for price to hit the trendline and the support levels at the same time.

To be more precise, if I had to guess now, I would say that price would penetrate the nearer level (lower level on short, higher level on long trade) and make its move from there on both.

There is also some support around 1.5600 which might see some action to the long side, but because today's low just barely touched it (appx. 1.5609) your chances are less probable on this one.

And again more support at appx. 1.5563 area. Watch this level, even for a long trade. If price makes a big move from this point the probability on the long trade above decreases. I chose 1.5547 - 1.5532 because historically, they are simply more significant.
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  • #378
  • May 28, 2008 6:01pm May 28, 2008 6:01pm
Quoting BillyRayValentine
Short USD/CHF 1.0424 - 1.0431

Here's a good one. Historically strong both up and down, and would coincide with a .50 retracement if price can get up there. Everyone looking at a daily chart will be able to see this.

By the way in case you haven't noticed, .50 retracements are pretty much all I ever use. They tend to hold price much stronger than any of the other levels. Sometimes I'll also look at .618. Its second in line.

I'll be starting to look for a pullback at 1.0413 though. If you draw the retracement from the top of the last major wave alone, thats the number you get; also, there is (minor) resistance at this level. Just a heads up, but I tried to narrow the range and shoot for the most reliable spot. In an everyday market this should hold for some pips.
I've got 2 data feeds. The more reliable one says that price hit 1.0424 right on the head, and based on my own execution today I'm going with that number.

Assuming entry at 1.0424, the maximum payout on this trade so far today was +76 pips.

So good show. Lets keep it going.
  • #379
  • May 28, 2008 6:06pm May 28, 2008 6:06pm
Quoting BillyRayValentine
Long EUR/USD 1.5638 - 1.5929

Price should move right off the top of that last bar in the uptrend. If price weasels its way down there this week, this is where you want to go long. Ignore the red lines just look at the blue.
Just to clarify, when the time for news came I got out of this trade personally. Just to keep in synch with my own personal trading rules I posted a max gain on this of +22 pips, but if you beared the grunt of the news, even with a small 25 pip stop loss you actually wouldnt have been stopped out and could have gotten more. But I wouldn't encourage it so close to entry. Ever.
  • #380
  • Edited May 29, 2008 12:12am May 28, 2008 6:35pm | Edited May 29, 2008 12:12am
Ok so I was curious and I'm not here to sound like a pompous schmuck, but I went back and took a look at all the posted trades and here's what I came up with:

Out of 15 "official" posted trades, 14 gave up atleast +20 pips, some paying out hundreds. With a holding strategy there's over a couple thousand pips in 15 trades. Not bad. The one "loser" if you want to call that, offered a chance to breakeven with a -20 pip drawdown on an option ex day. On top of this, contributers to this thread have posted other trades adding up to about another thousand pips. 90% is the target....we're at 93.3% so far.

Keep up the good work everybody and thank you! KEEP THEM COMING.
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