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4 Hour Strategy (MACD)

  • #15,141
  • May 27, 2008 1:03pm May 27, 2008 1:03pm
Quoting Phillip Nel
I could not have done it better. No matter what the price is going to do you have analised it in all directions and whatever oppertunity it is going to give will be taken depending on the price level for entry to your supp/res for profit taking. If R:R is not there then no deal.
Thank you, Phillip. I value that affirmation more than gold!
  • #15,142
  • May 27, 2008 1:26pm May 27, 2008 1:26pm
Quoting ejiexe
This is not very strange to me at all. I guess you are using ver 103 of MACD. I had lost few good trade as a result of that before I realised the cause.

What I do is to switch to other time frame probably switch to 1hr and switch back to 4hr to refresh and it will be fine.

That is the reason why you get the signal later when you reopen your platform. It has same effect as switching to other time frame and back to 4hr.

I hope this help
Thank you ejiexe, I'll keep that in mind.
  • #15,143
  • May 27, 2008 4:46pm May 27, 2008 4:46pm
Thanks for the reply Phillip. I'm quite happy to take a legitimate loss - its just a matter of knowing it was a legit loss and that it was a trade worth taking...that I hadn't overlooked any strong reasons not to take the trade.

Cheers,
Ben

Quoting Phillip Nel
Nothing wrong with the trade according to the 4H system. If it were on the EurUsd ot GbpUsd I would take it. One have to accept that you are going to get those losses as well. But on TC patterns they dont come regular.
  • #15,144
  • May 27, 2008 9:11pm May 27, 2008 9:11pm
HI Sorry if it's aready been plastered all over the thread 50 times just haven't had the time to read through 1000 pages yet! Just wondering if there's a trading room for this thread?

CHeers'
Time hides Nothing
  • #15,145
  • May 27, 2008 9:59pm May 27, 2008 9:59pm
I'm feeling a bit bearish. RT, double high and an engulfing candle signal this thing is most likely going to drop.
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  • #15,146
  • May 28, 2008 12:46am May 28, 2008 12:46am
Quoting Hookem28
I'm feeling a bit bearish. RT, double high and an engulfing candle signal this thing is most likely going to drop.
Same things happen on EU and all the majors, would dollor fall again?
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Plan your trades and trade your plans
  • #15,147
  • May 28, 2008 2:33am May 28, 2008 2:33am
Quoting Hookem28
I'm feeling a bit bearish. RT, double high and an engulfing candle signal this thing is most likely going to drop.

89, 200, 365 all converging. Waiting for breakout. But don't know if it will break down or to the upside. Any inputs anybody?
daily MACD is going down tho.


Gd luck trading! =)
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  • #15,148
  • Edited 3:13am May 28, 2008 3:01am | Edited 3:13am
I have entered long eu at 1.5713 with 1 lot and set it BE with 20pips trailing sl now. TP is daily R1

But I wish I would have entered GU's RB, see its good candle pattern.
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Remember Phillip's reserch with candle patter? No oddly that why it goes up so well.

See pic F
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Plan your trades and trade your plans
  • #15,149
  • Edited 3:41am May 28, 2008 3:27am | Edited 3:41am
Quoting saka
I have entered long eu at 1.5713 with 1 lot and set it BE with 20pips trailing sl now. TP is daily R1

But I wish I would have entered GU's RB, see its good candle pattern.
Attachment
Remember Phillip's reserch with candle patter? No oddly that why it goes up so well.

See pic F
Attachment
The GBP definitely looked the better of the two. There was alot of resistance on the Euro lower time frames which put me off that one. The GBP was a cleaner trade, but i didnt take it all the same. I hope you did well on the Euro. Good exit there if you made it that far. (Neat graphics, saka........!).
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  • #15,150
  • May 28, 2008 4:01am May 28, 2008 4:01am
Good view, I have quited it with 13pips which is 6.5 pips 2 lots. GBP still has three resistant lines up there, from top to bottom is weekly 21ema 1.9833, daily 365ema 1.9817 and daily 89sma 1.9800. You can see there are very close.

Majors are in consolidation area. Only 4h signal is the light in the dark environment....
Plan your trades and trade your plans
  • #15,151
  • Edited 8:44am May 28, 2008 4:03am | Edited 8:44am
Quoting Sukarno
89, 200, 365 all converging. Waiting for breakout. But don't know if it will break down or to the upside. Any inputs anybody?
daily MACD is going down tho.


Gd luck trading! =)
Thats the big question.........There are differant way to analyse this. We have trendline lines and our moving averages. We see the price has come back to test the 89sma and moved away from it. But it has only gone back to a recent high, so the direction is still not certain. The price will need to break that high to establish a direction

Also, we can draw horizontal lines which define the range the price is in right now. Price action suggests also there is a mid line to the range, and you can see how many times the price has touched these three lines. The price is moving, for the moment at least, back and forth, stopping at the middle line or price pivot.

If we draw back the overall range can be seen more clearly. The price will need to break decisively up or down from this point, but as you suggest, it is poised for either bouncing up, or down.

The last chart is how this played out later, within 5 pips of the top resistance line.
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  • #15,152
  • May 28, 2008 4:05am May 28, 2008 4:05am
Quoting saka
Good view, I have quited it with 13pips which is 6.5 pips 2 lots. GBP still has three resistant lines up there, from top to bottom is weekly 21ema 1.9833, daily 365ema 1.9817 and daily 89sma 1.9800. You can see there are very close.

Majors are in consolidation area. Only 4h signal is the light in the dark environment....
Nice one saka, it wasnt easy to trade that one i feel.
  • #15,153
  • May 28, 2008 4:20am May 28, 2008 4:20am
Quoting napeharm
Nice one saka, it wasnt easy to trade that one i feel.
Maybe eu is about to form a TC at 12:00 GMT+1
Plan your trades and trade your plans
  • #15,154
  • May 28, 2008 4:33am May 28, 2008 4:33am
Hi,
I think E/U broke th 21.Came back to it and now it's heading down to 89!!

Regards
Mike
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Failure, is a wonderful teacher!
  • #15,155
  • May 28, 2008 4:38am May 28, 2008 4:38am
My only reservation with this Euro TC is that it has fallen along way to the low of the previous day and stopped there, the daily open is near also. Perhaps its due for a break before continuing south. We shall see how it works out. ( We also have the weekly pivot nearby so some support might be due here).
  • #15,156
  • May 28, 2008 4:43am May 28, 2008 4:43am
Quoting napeharm
My only reservation with this Euro TC is that it has fallen along way to the low of the previous day and stopped there, the daily open is near also. Perhaps its due for a break before continuing south. We shall see how it works out. ( We also have the weekly pivot nearby so some support might be due here).
There are many support there, will you think eu will crack these?
Plan your trades and trade your plans
  • #15,157
  • May 28, 2008 4:47am May 28, 2008 4:47am
Quoting saka
There are many support there, will you think eu will crack these?
Well, i thought it might develop into a pin bar but it is an outside bearish bar, or bearish engulfing if you prefer at the moment. So that says short. Where is the exit now.......200sma possibly.......a trendline there as well.
  • #15,158
  • May 28, 2008 4:54am May 28, 2008 4:54am
Hi Saka, I am wondering where can I look at Phillip's research on candlestick patterns, like the chart attached on your previous post?
E/U is going to form a TC in 10 minutes, but the candle is quite large.
How would you trade it, there is a support aroung 1.5660? Thanks.
  • #15,159
  • Edited 6:46am May 28, 2008 5:02am | Edited 6:46am
EURUSD has ran for about 80 pips down during last 2 hours without serious retracements. And if to look at lower timeframes (30-5 min), it looks like price may retrace to their EMA21s to about 1.57 before possible continuation down. On 4H that may look like a retracement of between 23.6-38.2% of the signal bar. So I decided to stay away and wait.

Edit: 2:40 passed after the signal bar closed, and price really retraced - retracement reached 1.9695 - but that was lower than I was waiting for and I didn't enter.
  • #15,160
  • May 28, 2008 5:04am May 28, 2008 5:04am
I entered 1lot @ 1.5680, sl @ daily pp, tp is 200. if 20pips gain, I will trailing sl with 20pips

candle sticks, there is only one picture, this is Phillp's mp3's written version
Attached File(s)
File Type: doc candlesticks.doc   70 KB | 728 downloads
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