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  • #341
  • May 27, 2008 7:54am May 27, 2008 7:54am
Quoting superman
hi billy, Thanks for the heads up, you mention that it could head to 1.5633 and turn. What makes you think there and not 1.5695 area? thanks
Its a major retracement, and I was reading about it over and over again across sell-side research. I posted it before the last pullback though (at the 1.5700 area). Now there's a pullback that happened just before it and I'm not looking at it so strongly, however, and my eyes are more focused on the 1.5800 level in terms of a major pullback, so I'm with you on this one.

I was thinking about modifying the post over the past couple of days. Things change all the time, and this is a good example.....Thanks for the heads up. Chances of a major reversal declined since this, but I'm still looking for some type of reaction.
  • #342
  • May 27, 2008 8:02am May 27, 2008 8:02am
Quoting superman
Sometimes i find that there are too many charts to look at. How many pairs do you look at or keep an eye on Billy?

Do you assess them all every morning? Im kind of a novice but have been trying to day trade just cable alone for the past year or so without too much success. Im trying to break out and trying to incorporate correlation and trying to learn to keep an eye out for more setups on other charts but find it difficult to keep up. Any tips?
Mainly the following:
EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/CHF, AUD/USD, USD/JPY and EUR/JPY.

Sometimes I'll look at others but these hold more true to this strategy than others I find.

The reason is there are a ton of cross out there. The chances of each pair, like JPY, being pulled up and down because of support/resistance levels on its sister pairs is less likely on all the funky crosses. So I look at the majors that are likely to affect it, like EUR/JPY. You want to follow the herd. The herd is looking at the majors.

I know a guy that trades nothing but cable, and he cranks out a hundred or more pips daily. He's good, and he keeps it simple.

Getting overwhelmed is the worst, and its going to bleed your account. 6 pairs is a good load for me to handle, I find. Others might be able to do more, but for me, I can breathe and do my work right.

My father was an engineer - he always used to say "measure twice, cut once". Same thing here. Can't do that if your head is spinning.
  • #343
  • May 27, 2008 8:40am May 27, 2008 8:40am
Your thoughts please master?
Attached Images
Those that can, do, those that can't, teach.
  • #344
  • May 27, 2008 8:44am May 27, 2008 8:44am
And here's one I made earlier.
Attached Image
Those that can, do, those that can't, teach.
  • #345
  • May 27, 2008 9:11am May 27, 2008 9:11am
How about a short around 104.39, with another position to add around 104.69, with sl around 104.80 and 1st tp around 103.75 and let a small position run ?
  • #346
  • May 27, 2008 9:18am May 27, 2008 9:18am
Quoting BillyRayValentine
Mainly the following:
EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/CHF, AUD/USD, USD/JPY and EUR/JPY.

Sometimes I'll look at others but these hold more true to this strategy than others I find.

The reason is there are a ton of cross out there. The chances of each pair, like JPY, being pulled up and down because of support/resistance levels on its sister pairs is less likely on all the funky crosses. So I look at the majors that are likely to affect it, like EUR/JPY. You want to follow the herd. The herd is looking at the majors.

I know a guy that trades nothing but cable, and he cranks out a hundred or more pips daily. He's good, and he keeps it simple.

Getting overwhelmed is the worst, and its going to bleed your account. 6 pairs is a good load for me to handle, I find. Others might be able to do more, but for me, I can breathe and do my work right.

My father was an engineer - he always used to say "measure twice, cut once". Same thing here. Can't do that if your head is spinning.
Didnt mention USD/CAD....make that 7
  • #347
  • Edited 9:49am May 27, 2008 9:25am | Edited 9:49am
Quoting pf1966
Your thoughts please master?
Please you can call me BRV ....I just shorted USDJPY at 104.26 after it couldn't break it on that second attempt. Its a good example where you have multiple areas of s/r, and this time its using the bottom one, which isn't uncommon. Looks like we're closing anti-dollar on the next hour. Things could be topping out for the day. Holding onto this for a little bit, but watch for the hourly close. You might be able to make a later entry on a minor pullback to these levels.

Also 104.00 now has support. If it can close below it I would like to hold onto it for another +40 pips....maybe take partial at the mark and let the rest run. If price fades its way back up there to where it just started bouncing off of it might be another good short. Now you have stops up there. Depends on how long its staying below it.
  • #348
  • May 27, 2008 9:29am May 27, 2008 9:29am
Quoting piptornado
How about a short around 104.39, with another position to add around 104.69, with sl around 104.80 and 1st tp around 103.75 and let a small position run ?
Due to this last pullback 104.39 looks weaker. I would be looking higher, personally, maybe around 104.48 - 104.58 for intraday. When you have a pullback so close to another level, chances decline of the next level up sticking, and might have to look higher.
  • #349
  • May 27, 2008 9:52am May 27, 2008 9:52am
Quoting BillyRayValentine
Please you can call me BRV ....I just shorted USDJPY at 104.26 after it couldn't break it on that second attempt. Its a good example where you have multiple areas of s/r, and this time its using the bottom one, which isn't uncommon. Looks like we're closing anti-dollar on the next hour. Things could be topping out for the day. Holding onto this for a little bit, but watch for the hourly close. You might be able to make a later entry on a minor pullback to these levels.

Also 104.00 now has support. If it can close below it I would like to hold onto it for another +40 pips....maybe take partial at the mark and let the rest run. If price fades its way back up there to where it just started bouncing off of it might be another good short. Now you have stops up there. Depends on how long its staying below it.
Same story developing on USDCHF. Watch for those hourly closes throughout the day.
  • #350
  • Edited 11:22am May 27, 2008 10:09am | Edited 11:22am
One thing I just noticed, and was chatting with another FF member here about the other day while watching CAD, was at the end of the hour, a couple seconds before the close, banks will jump in with huge orders in order to shape the close on the hourly bars.

The closes hold a lot of significance, and if price is near an important technical level, bouncing off of a trendline, or near cricial support, you will see price jump around right before the close. It happens a lot.

Pay attention to the bars starting 1 minute before the hourly close and you'll see what I'm talking about. I just saw it on a few pairs.

A lot of times these closes, when jerked around so much, will dictate what happens in the next hour, 2 hours, or days.

Another thing we talked about was the garbage courses out there on trading FX and how they say the market is so big that no one can manipulate it. That's a myth. A load of crap. Total BS. etc etc..... If you hear this coming from anyone start running. Anyone who wants to challenge me on this please do. My confidence level peaks when it comes to this statement.
  • #351
  • May 27, 2008 10:16am May 27, 2008 10:16am
How you doind BRuV? Hope you had a good weekend.

Could you give us a list of TFs that you use and explain a bit how you use them?
Would be interesting to know and put things a bit more into perspective.

Cheers

Pippins
Be like a post stamp! Stick to it until you get there!
  • #352
  • May 27, 2008 10:22am May 27, 2008 10:22am
Quoting BillyRayValentine
Please you can call me BRV ....I just shorted USDJPY at 104.26 after it couldn't break it on that second attempt. Its a good example where you have multiple areas of s/r, and this time its using the bottom one, which isn't uncommon. Looks like we're closing anti-dollar on the next hour. Things could be topping out for the day. Holding onto this for a little bit, but watch for the hourly close. You might be able to make a later entry on a minor pullback to these levels.

Also 104.00 now has support. If it can close below it I would like to hold onto it for another +40 pips....maybe take partial at the mark and let the rest run. If price fades its way back up there to where it just started bouncing off of it might be another good short. Now you have stops up there. Depends on how long its staying below it.
Targeting 103.65 if we get a close below the 104.00 area. Not an official post but I know some were following.
  • #353
  • May 27, 2008 10:26am May 27, 2008 10:26am
Quoting BillyRayValentine
Targeting 103.65 if we get a close below the 104.00 area.
This would be an hourly close right?
  • #354
  • May 27, 2008 10:27am May 27, 2008 10:27am
Quoting BillyRayValentine
Due to this last pullback 104.39 looks weaker. I would be looking higher, personally, maybe around 104.48 - 104.58 for intraday. When you have a pullback so close to another level, chances decline of the next level up sticking, and might have to look higher.
thanks for the insight
  • #355
  • Edited 11:03am May 27, 2008 10:31am | Edited 11:03am
Quoting piptornado
This would be an hourly close right?
Yeah basically what I'm saying is if there's an hourly close beyond a s/r level you should be looking to the next one. There is some support ar 104.00, so if price goes past it and closes beyond it on an hourly basis, you want to be looking at the next one. Also look at diagonal trendlines becuse they are #2 in line for me in terms of significance.

Like right now JPY is pushing lower but there's now also a diagonal trendline to be drawn from the bottom up. So I want to see a close (or open) below that, too. If it doesn't happen your chances decline of a push further and would consider taking partial. You just battle obstacles all day long and wait for them to bust or hold.

Its like climbing or going down a ladder using these levels. Everything is step by step. If you can get past one, you look for the next, etc etc. Its pretty easy you just have to get used to it.
  • #356
  • May 27, 2008 10:53am May 27, 2008 10:53am
So for example USD/JPY today you have two possible levels of reversal. One at around 104.26 and the other at 104.37.

A: Price taps the level and makes a good sized retracement. Already your chances of getting a good sized bounce on the next level are slim to none.

B: Price comes back up and cant take out the level and starts to decline again. Go short. Important: during this time, I saw price being shoved down 4 pips at a time, with minor 1 or 2 pip pullbacks. You can tell what's going on. Just watch the ticks in relation to where price is. Big orders coming on, chances are the rest will follow. I got all this from just looking at the ticks. Usually these big orders lead to big moves.

C: 104.00 support. Price needs to close below it to go lower.

D: Diagonal trendline. Price needs to close (or open) below it to go lower.

E: Next major area of support/resistance. Target if C and D get met on an hourly basis.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: jpy.gif Size: 17 KB
  • #357
  • May 27, 2008 11:08am May 27, 2008 11:08am
Quoting BillyRayValentine
So for example USD/JPY today you have two possible levels of reversal. One at around 104.26 and the other at 104.37.

A: Price taps the level and makes a good sized retracement. Already your chances of getting a good sized bounce on the next level are slim to none.

B: Price comes back up and cant take out the level and starts to decline again. Go short. Important: during this time, I saw price being shoved down 4 pips at a time, with minor 1 or 2 pip pullbacks. You can tell what's going on. Just watch the ticks in relation to where price is. Big orders coming on, chances are the rest will follow. I got all this from just looking at the ticks. Usually these big orders lead to big moves.

C: 104.00 support. Price needs to close below it to go lower.

D: Diagonal trendline. Price needs to close (or open) below it to go lower.

E: Next major area of support/resistance. Target if C and D get met on an hourly basis.
sorry if youv been asked this a million times but where would your stop be placed? I would say a tight one at 104.09 ?
  • #358
  • May 27, 2008 11:13am May 27, 2008 11:13am
Quoting superman
sorry if youv been asked this a million times but where would your stop be placed? I would say a tight one at 104.09 ?
I would put it just above the next level of s/r, so in this example above 104.37.

Also I would be hesitant to enter so low. We were talking about entering at 104.26.

104.00 is mushed around now and doesn't hold a lot of significance anymore. I use the closes mainly for guaging continuation of price and not so much for entering trades. You have no buffer or safety net and probability for continuation is less, that's why I take partial around these areas.
  • #359
  • May 27, 2008 11:51am May 27, 2008 11:51am
Quoting BillyRayValentine
So for example USD/JPY today you have two possible levels of reversal. One at around 104.26 and the other at 104.37.

A: Price taps the level and makes a good sized retracement. Already your chances of getting a good sized bounce on the next level are slim to none.

B: Price comes back up and cant take out the level and starts to decline again. Go short. Important: during this time, I saw price being shoved down 4 pips at a time, with minor 1 or 2 pip pullbacks. You can tell what's going on. Just watch the ticks in relation to where price is. Big orders coming on, chances are the rest will follow. I got all this from just looking at the ticks. Usually these big orders lead to big moves.

C: 104.00 support. Price needs to close below it to go lower.

D: Diagonal trendline. Price needs to close (or open) below it to go lower.

E: Next major area of support/resistance. Target if C and D get met on an hourly basis.

Great explanation. I actually understood it, now that is something!
  • #360
  • May 27, 2008 1:18pm May 27, 2008 1:18pm
Billy,

U/J is creeping back up to that 104.26 level. Does that still look good to you at this time of day for a short entry or should we look for a new level?


Quoting BillyRayValentine
I would put it just above the next level of s/r, so in this example above 104.37.

Also I would be hesitant to enter so low. We were talking about entering at 104.26.

104.00 is mushed around now and doesn't hold a lot of significance anymore. I use the closes mainly for guaging continuation of price and not so much for entering trades. You have no buffer or safety net and probability for continuation is less, that's why I take partial around these areas.
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