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  • #21
  • May 26, 2008 3:54pm May 26, 2008 3:54pm
dear DRT
so nice to see your posts again....
you don't know how many time I was search all over the net to find you
I trade only by your strategy "the river theory"........ it was and still very helpfull to me >>>>>>>> thanks man
wish u all the best
If you count on hope in any trade ……. Get out of it
  • #22
  • May 26, 2008 3:56pm May 26, 2008 3:56pm
Quoting Ash
Good to see I am not the only seeing the possibility of 2.35.
Yes Ash. We just need to get it right and I think it is the trade of the year. Unbelievable monthly consolidation.
  • #23
  • May 26, 2008 3:57pm May 26, 2008 3:57pm
Quoting mandoaddam
dear DRT
so nice to see your posts again....
you don't know how many time I was search all over the net to find you
I trade only by your strategy "the river theory"........ it was and still very helpfull to me >>>>>>>> thanks man
wish u all the best
Thanks and good to hear from you again.
  • #24
  • May 26, 2008 4:01pm May 26, 2008 4:01pm
Quoting BANDA
Hi DRT,
Happy to see you started a new thread, so it would be easier to find your insight, input and analysis. People like me benefit a lot from this as I do not trust my own analysis which lead to loses often times.
Banda,

You have to learn to have complete trust in your decisions. It will come. Maybe my thoughts can start you down a different path that leads to your own. Trading is hard enough without second guessing yourself. Good luck.
  • #25
  • May 26, 2008 4:14pm May 26, 2008 4:14pm
  •  FxChi
  • | Joined Dec 2007 | Status: Cash Rules Everything Around Me | 749 Posts
Hi DRT! Thanks for starting this thread. I'm intrigued on how you're able to analyze these value levels but will do my own research on it. Actually, if you have any resources you don't mind sharing can you post here if it doesn't violate FF rules...if it does, can you pm?

Anyways, was wondering what your view on A/U is at the current momment. I also monitor Gold which IMO looks like it's corrected and ready to begin moving to all time higher highs and I'm thinking will bring A/U along.
"Wishful thinking dies hard." Igor T.
  • #26
  • May 26, 2008 4:14pm May 26, 2008 4:14pm
Quoting DownRiverTrader
salah,

what do you mean by Long Term? I assume you saw my cable thoughts a couple posts back? If you mean the next several weeks then....

I think cable may reach 2.15/35 before stopping the longer term trend. Likely a heavy retract from 2.15, then the advance to 2.35 araea. If it goes below 1.85 I would change my view. So Long it is for me.

If you take a look at the monthly chart, there is TREMENDOUS consolidation. Just look at the value building that has occurred around 1.98. One thing is for sure, when it goes it is going to go hard. We just need to be on the right side of it. 5 months of coiling up is going to bust out very, very soon. Use the monthly ADV level that I posted on cable and stay on the right side of it. I think this could be the trad of the year!!



What time frame? or does this answer your question?
actually thats great
thnk u very much for ur analysis
"what doesn't bankrupt me, makes me stronger" modern nietzche
  • #27
  • May 26, 2008 4:29pm May 26, 2008 4:29pm
Since we are chit chatting about cable, I want to share this with you. I have a very strong signal out of the recent lows that make me think the next move up may be the one to launch cable. Although there is some wood to chop at the trendline around 1.99, if we get through it may go. At the same time the trendline is the key, so what I try to do is position now for the anticipated battle at this level. I want to watch everyone fight it out from below.

I am positioning now out of ADV at 9837 if we move above.

http://www.morrisfunds.com/storage/a...L%205.2008.PNG
  • #28
  • May 26, 2008 4:44pm May 26, 2008 4:44pm
  •  MPP
  • Joined Jun 2007 | Status: Be yourself, everyone else is taken | 2,734 Posts
Hello DRT
interesting thread, thanks for sharing your views with us, currently i am biased long on Audjpy, with a view to looking for a better entry over the coming weeks were do you feel AJ is heading.

regards

MPP
  • #29
  • May 26, 2008 4:51pm May 26, 2008 4:51pm
Quoting FxChi
Hi DRT! Thanks for starting this thread. I'm intrigued on how you're able to analyze these value levels but will do my own research on it. Actually, if you have any resources you don't mind sharing can you post here if it doesn't violate FF rules...if it does, can you pm?

Anyways, was wondering what your view on A/U is at the current momment. I also monitor Gold which IMO looks like it's corrected and ready to begin moving to all time higher highs and I'm thinking will bring A/U along.
Click on the link in my signature to take you back to the first post. There is a link to the thread where I have attempted to discuss the basis for my methods.

The comdols are tough. I guess I can't confuse things anymore than they already are though!

My views may be a little different than most. I don't want this thread to become a goldbug but here's my quick take on Gold.

A move back to 885, then down to 650.


Back to the here and now with AUDUSD. We are currently building value in Value Area [2]. We are either going to move up through 9640 to 9743 or continue to range trade back down to 9488.

My bias is a move back to 9488. Look to set shorts on a push back up to 9640 or before. Target 9488. I would cover here and observe a session.

If we do move up and I am wrong. Then set longs if we move above 9640 and hold. Target 9743 and exit. Observe.

http://www.morrisfunds.com/storage/a...05.27.2008.PNG
  • #30
  • May 26, 2008 4:57pm May 26, 2008 4:57pm
Hi man, thanks for the oportunity of asking you!!!
What is ya opinion about USDJPY?Thanks...
  • #31
  • May 26, 2008 5:06pm May 26, 2008 5:06pm
Quoting MPP
Hello DRT
interesting thread, thanks for sharing your views with us, currently i am biased long on Audjpy, with a view to looking for a better entry over the coming weeks were do you feel AJ is heading.

regards

MPP

AJ - This is a tough one for me.

We are currently trading at the monthly longest line around 99.23. This area reflects consensus value for this pair. A move up from this level will target 101.03. Notice the unbalance top of this monthly curve. It is a shelf almost which indicated there is some HEAVY supply in the market at these upper levels.

I would be on the sidelines with this pair until it moves to the next level and builds value. My bias is for a move down towards ADV but it is not clear. Aggressive traders can play shorts below current levels for a move down to ADV.

Make a note to ask me about this after another day of trading and let's take a look.

http://www.morrisfunds.com/storage/a...05.27.2008.PNG
  • #32
  • May 26, 2008 5:20pm May 26, 2008 5:20pm
Quoting Küster
Hi man, thanks for the oportunity of asking you!!!
What is ya opinion about USDJPY?Thanks...

Here are my comments from last session, they have not changed.

Recall that we captured approximately 250 points in this pair by range trading the levels between ADV of 102.79 and the Value Area [+1]. Let's review where we are heading into the end of the month. We are holding above ADV at this point and we should remain bullish until (if) we build value below 102.79. The value area above ADV is fairly well developed at this point. I suspect we may try a push below 102.79 to test the waters but that is yet to be confirmed.

We are still trying to range down to the 102.79 level at ADV and if you are short from 104.39 then stay short and cover at 102.79. Watch this level closely as our next major directional move will come from here. If we move below 102.79 and build value then we will look to set up shorts and target the 101.75 level.

If 102.79 holds, we could have a very strong move up in the sessions ahead. To get a better handle on this pair, we need to see another test of ADV at 102.79 and see if this level holds. Monday's session in North America will be very light so we may want to stand aside until a better direction is indicated before setting up our next trades.



http://www.morrisfunds.com/storage/f...05.26.2008.PNG



Here is the 60M view for reference



http://www.morrisfunds.com/storage/f...05.26.2008.PNG

  • #33
  • May 26, 2008 5:25pm May 26, 2008 5:25pm
Quoting DownRiverTrader
Here are my comments from last session, they have not changed.

Recall that we captured approximately 250 points in this pair by range trading the levels between ADV of 102.79 and the Value Area [+1]. Let's review where we are heading into the end of the month. We are holding above ADV at this point and we should remain bullish until (if) we build value below 102.79. The value area above ADV is fairly well developed at this point. I suspect we may try a push below 102.79 to test the waters but that is yet to be confirmed.

We are still trying to range down to the 102.79 level at ADV and if you are short from 104.39 then stay short and cover at 102.79. Watch this level closely as our next major directional move will come from here. If we move below 102.79 and build value then we will look to set up shorts and target the 101.75 level.

If 102.79 holds, we could have a very strong move up in the sessions ahead. To get a better handle on this pair, we need to see another test of ADV at 102.79 and see if this level holds. Monday's session in North America will be very light so we may want to stand aside until a better direction is indicated before setting up our next trades.


Here is the 60M view for reference
Thanks a lot man...I'm a bit nervous becouse I'm still holding some shorts from 103.26 since friday.But i'll hold it at least to a little bit below 103.Thanks.
  • #34
  • May 26, 2008 6:36pm May 26, 2008 6:36pm
Hi DRT,
What do you eurusd will do in the next day or two. It's been most indecisive. Thanks.
Expected the unexpected
  • #35
  • May 26, 2008 6:46pm May 26, 2008 6:46pm
Quoting scyang
Hi DRT,
What do you eurusd will do in the next day or two. It's been most indecisive. Thanks.
Here's my analysis from last session. still good for now.

Okay, let's take a look at where we are with this pair. Early in the month, we spent a lot of time building value between Value Area [-2] and Value Area [-1]. Our monthly longest line remains down at 1.5465. Notice what happened here, traders pushed price in both directions until finally it was decided that the EURUSD was undervalued and price began to extend upward. Now the French Finance Manager may think the EURO is overvalued by 20% but the market does not agree (at this point). Once we extended up through the level we call ADV (Adaptive Dynamic Value) we have begun to build value in the Zone between ADV and Value Area [+1]. We have not yet reached the top at 5820 and this tells me their is major supply up at this area. No surprise here so far.

Late last week, traders tried to push the value back below the ADV, but the demand held and Friday we pushed up again trying to make new highs. So now we are right near the top of the Value Area [+1]. We have a US holiday so volume may be extremely light from North America tommorrow.

The question is....will we continue to build value and develop this current zone or push up to test the next zone. The trick here is to prepare yourself for the fact that we may trade back down to 5717. I certainly do not know the answer. I do believe we have not fully tested the top of the value area yet. I know we are above ADV so I remain bullish for a move up.

A Monday, with a US holiday may favor range trading. On the other hand, these times of lighter volume are known for running stop levels and you can bet there are stops above the monthly highs.

Bottom line is that I remain long until proven wrong, if we do test the upside and settle back in Value Area [+1] below 5820 then aggressive traders could set shorts back down to 5717. I am not willing to set shorts just yet until we test the top.

Any move above 5820 (and value building) signals a move on up to 5923 may be in the cards. We will need to get above the 5865 level.

Any move and value build below 5717 and I will cover my longs.

LONG TERM NOTE: If you continue to follow my trading, you will notice that I make comments like "the next major move will come from ADV". These ADV levels are extremely important and as I have said, they are DYNAMIC which means they will change every few weeks as the value dictates. Although this is not important to some of you, it is to me. I see a long term structure of the EURO heading to 1.65 and which point it may begin to weaken. I believe that this particular ADV level of 5717 will set the stage for this to occur. So I am watching it very carefully. Not that important if you are a shorter term trader at this point, but it does tell me that the direction is up and I expect new all time highs if this level holds as we move forward.

http://www.morrisfunds.com/storage/f...05.26.2008.PNG
  • #36
  • May 26, 2008 6:46pm May 26, 2008 6:46pm
  •  FxChi
  • | Joined Dec 2007 | Status: Cash Rules Everything Around Me | 749 Posts
Quoting DownRiverTrader
Click on the link in my signature to take you back to the first post. There is a link to the thread where I have attempted to discuss the basis for my methods.

The comdols are tough. I guess I can't confuse things anymore than they already are though!

My views may be a little different than most. I don't want this thread to become a goldbug but here's my quick take on Gold.

A move back to 885, then down to 650.


Back to the here and now with AUDUSD. We are currently building value in Value Area [2]. We are either going to move up through 9640 to 9743 or continue to range trade back down to 9488.

My bias is a move back to 9488. Look to set shorts on a push back up to 9640 or before. Target 9488. I would cover here and observe a session.

If we do move up and I am wrong. Then set longs if we move above 9640 and hold. Target 9743 and exit. Observe.

http://www.morrisfunds.com/storage/a...05.27.2008.PNG
Ahhh, thank you very much for pointing me to the beginning of the thread. Makes more sense now. So essentially, the standard deviations (either 1 or 2) are dervied from ADV or the longest line, and you look to these levels to see if there is value building. If you see value building at these levels you'll look to the next standard deviation, and if no value building means price will be retreating to the previous level in a range? Is my interpretation in the ballpark of how to read these charts? Lastly, you have 5 columns of bars, do you use all 5?
"Wishful thinking dies hard." Igor T.
  • #37
  • Edited 7:08pm May 26, 2008 6:58pm | Edited 7:08pm
Quoting FxChi
Ahhh, thank you very much for pointing me to the beginning of the thread. Makes more sense now. So essentially, the standard deviations (either 1 or 2) are dervied from ADV or the longest line, and you look to these levels to see if there is value building. If you see value building at these levels you'll look to the next standard deviation, and if no value building means price will be retreating to the previous level in a range? Is my interpretation in the ballpark of how to read these charts? Lastly, you have 5 columns of bars, do you use all 5?

Yes. You are on the right track. Generally, I like to see value build above a level and then wait for an entry on a pullback to the level. But I also use some discretionery analysis based on the distribution balance. As far as the bars go....Tradestation does not allow you to combine the distributions like a Market Profile vendor usually does. So I use some manual calculations to approximate the longest line over more than a month. Not an exact number like 5, just within the ranges. My purpose here is not to introduce a new methodology, but give traders a feel for how I trade.....hoping it will help generate some ideas for those who are wanting a change or wandering without being on solid ground. For those that hang around, hopefully they will come to trust the levels and I will do my best to make them available to all.

I guess it is sort of like a place to come to get an idea or confirm a trading idea of your own. I know when I first started trading, no one wanted to be specific or share an idea. I always thought it would be nice to ask someone without just having someone say, I am long or I am short.
  • #38
  • May 26, 2008 7:16pm May 26, 2008 7:16pm
Let me make a few comments on my core trading beliefs. Not to offend anyone, just my personal views.

I believe that all markets are driven by supply and demand. Doesn't matter if it is iPods or ricecakes. If you don't know where value lies in your market, then you will likely have a tough time making money. Platform vendors, brokers and others want traders to believe that they can make a trade when a moving average crosses or something called a stochastic is at 25 and moves up. This is non-sense. If you apply your intelligence to these methods of trading, you will clearly see that all indiators are just price re-packaged to look easy. But they are not, never will be. Price (value) is all that matters. If you get good at being able to identify value in the currency markets, then you will be a successful trader. Doesn't matter if it is Euros or used cars it holds true. We all get so wrapped up in technology that we forget the core reasons markets exist and what drives them. It's not magic and it is hard work.

Clear your workspaces, clear your mind and buy and sell at fair values.
  • #39
  • May 26, 2008 7:48pm May 26, 2008 7:48pm
Quoting DownRiverTrader
Let me make a few comments on my core trading beliefs. Not to offend anyone, just my personal views.

I believe that all markets are driven by supply and demand. Doesn't matter if it is iPods or ricecakes. If you don't know where value lies in your market, then you will likely have a tough time making money. Platform vendors, brokers and others want traders to believe that they can make a trade when a moving average crosses or something called a stochastic is at 25 and moves up. This is non-sense. If you apply your intelligence to these methods of trading, you will clearly see that all indiators are just price re-packaged to look easy. But they are not, never will be. Price (value) is all that matters. If you get good at being able to identify value in the currency markets, then you will be a successful trader. Doesn't matter if it is Euros or used cars it holds true. We all get so wrapped up in technology that we forget the core reasons markets exist and what drives them. It's not magic and it is hard work.

Clear your workspaces, clear your mind and buy and sell at fair values.

Don't let the secret out! lol,

I have shared with many about trading supply/demand, but they seem to either refuse to believe how simple it is or they are afraid to let go of there screen full of indicators.

Thank you for your insight, i appreciate the simplicity of trading supply and demand, it is truly what moves markets.
  • #40
  • May 26, 2008 7:50pm May 26, 2008 7:50pm
Hello DRT,

Your analysis is much appreciated. please keep up the good work. I wanted to ask you about the price distribution on this cable chart. there are 4 bell curves from the left to the right. does each one represent a time frame? like, monthly, weekly, daily until the hourly. I like to know what they represent.

Thanks in advance, ( if I get tradestation would I get the same chart. I know I wont get the deviation and I am not asking for it. this is your code, I understand that. just the price distribution, would I get it with TS?)

tennisguy


Quoting DownRiverTrader
Sterling is currently building value near the ADV level and has now made 3 attempts to advance. Again, ADV is very important here. A move through sets up an upward trend for the week. However, if the supply here holds, then range trading below will persist. Best to go with the flow here, but my bias is for a move up through the ADV level of 9837.

If price moves above 9837 and builds value, look to set longs on a move back toward 9837. Target 9936. Cover here and observe and wait for the next clue. I would guess we may trade back down to 9837 before a move powerful move up.

If my view is wrong, traders can range trade the current 9837 down to 9732 range and back up to ADV.

http://www.morrisfunds.com/storage/a...05.26.2008.PNG
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