so nice to see your posts again....
you don't know how many time I was search all over the net to find you
I trade only by your strategy "the river theory"........ it was and still very helpfull to me >>>>>>>> thanks man
wish u all the bestIgnored
Happy to see you started a new thread, so it would be easier to find your insight, input and analysis. People like me benefit a lot from this as I do not trust my own analysis which lead to loses often times.Ignored
what do you mean by Long Term? I assume you saw my cable thoughts a couple posts back? If you mean the next several weeks then....
I think cable may reach 2.15/35 before stopping the longer term trend. Likely a heavy retract from 2.15, then the advance to 2.35 araea. If it goes below 1.85 I would change my view. So Long it is for me.
If you take a look at the monthly chart, there is TREMENDOUS consolidation. Just look at the value building that has occurred around 1.98. One thing is for sure, when it goes it is going to go hard. We just need to be on the right side of it. 5 months of coiling up is going to bust out very, very soon. Use the monthly ADV level that I posted on cable and stay on the right side of it. I think this could be the trad of the year!!
What time frame? or does this answer your question?Ignored
DislikedHi DRT! Thanks for starting this thread. I'm intrigued on how you're able to analyze these value levels but will do my own research on it. Actually, if you have any resources you don't mind sharing can you post here if it doesn't violate FF rules...if it does, can you pm?
Anyways, was wondering what your view on A/U is at the current momment. I also monitor Gold which IMO looks like it's corrected and ready to begin moving to all time higher highs and I'm thinking will bring A/U along.Ignored
interesting thread, thanks for sharing your views with us, currently i am biased long on Audjpy, with a view to looking for a better entry over the coming weeks were do you feel AJ is heading.
DislikedHi man, thanks for the oportunity of asking you!!!
What is ya opinion about USDJPY?Thanks...Ignored
DislikedHere are my comments from last session, they have not changed.
Recall that we captured approximately 250 points in this pair by range trading the levels between ADV of 102.79 and the Value Area [+1]. Let's review where we are heading into the end of the month. We are holding above ADV at this point and we should remain bullish until (if) we build value below 102.79. The value area above ADV is fairly well developed at this point. I suspect we may try a push below 102.79 to test the waters but that is yet to be confirmed.
We are still trying to range down to the 102.79 level at ADV and if you are short from 104.39 then stay short and cover at 102.79. Watch this level closely as our next major directional move will come from here. If we move below 102.79 and build value then we will look to set up shorts and target the 101.75 level.
If 102.79 holds, we could have a very strong move up in the sessions ahead. To get a better handle on this pair, we need to see another test of ADV at 102.79 and see if this level holds. Monday's session in North America will be very light so we may want to stand aside until a better direction is indicated before setting up our next trades.
Here is the 60M view for referenceIgnored
What do you eurusd will do in the next day or two. It's been most indecisive. Thanks.Ignored
DislikedClick on the link in my signature to take you back to the first post. There is a link to the thread where I have attempted to discuss the basis for my methods.
The comdols are tough. I guess I can't confuse things anymore than they already are though!
My views may be a little different than most. I don't want this thread to become a goldbug but here's my quick take on Gold.
A move back to 885, then down to 650.
Back to the here and now with AUDUSD. We are currently building value in Value Area . We are either going to move up through 9640 to 9743 or continue to range trade back down to 9488.
My bias is a move back to 9488. Look to set shorts on a push back up to 9640 or before. Target 9488. I would cover here and observe a session.
If we do move up and I am wrong. Then set longs if we move above 9640 and hold. Target 9743 and exit. Observe.
DislikedAhhh, thank you very much for pointing me to the beginning of the thread. Makes more sense now. So essentially, the standard deviations (either 1 or 2) are dervied from ADV or the longest line, and you look to these levels to see if there is value building. If you see value building at these levels you'll look to the next standard deviation, and if no value building means price will be retreating to the previous level in a range? Is my interpretation in the ballpark of how to read these charts? Lastly, you have 5 columns of bars, do you use all 5?Ignored
DislikedLet me make a few comments on my core trading beliefs. Not to offend anyone, just my personal views.
I believe that all markets are driven by supply and demand. Doesn't matter if it is iPods or ricecakes. If you don't know where value lies in your market, then you will likely have a tough time making money. Platform vendors, brokers and others want traders to believe that they can make a trade when a moving average crosses or something called a stochastic is at 25 and moves up. This is non-sense. If you apply your intelligence to these methods of trading, you will clearly see that all indiators are just price re-packaged to look easy. But they are not, never will be. Price (value) is all that matters. If you get good at being able to identify value in the currency markets, then you will be a successful trader. Doesn't matter if it is Euros or used cars it holds true. We all get so wrapped up in technology that we forget the core reasons markets exist and what drives them. It's not magic and it is hard work.
Clear your workspaces, clear your mind and buy and sell at fair values.Ignored
DislikedSterling is currently building value near the ADV level and has now made 3 attempts to advance. Again, ADV is very important here. A move through sets up an upward trend for the week. However, if the supply here holds, then range trading below will persist. Best to go with the flow here, but my bias is for a move up through the ADV level of 9837.
If price moves above 9837 and builds value, look to set longs on a move back toward 9837. Target 9936. Cover here and observe and wait for the next clue. I would guess we may trade back down to 9837 before a move powerful move up.
If my view is wrong, traders can range trade the current 9837 down to 9732 range and back up to ADV.