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4 Hour Strategy (MACD)

  • #15,101
  • Edited May 27, 2008 10:09am May 26, 2008 11:41am | Edited May 27, 2008 10:09am
I dont trade other pairs but I scrolled through the pairs and saw this beautiful rhythm executed to the letter. Pullbacks to the 21ema and then the close above the 21ema, pulled back to it and a move away to a possible 89sma. You dont get them better then this.

I am trailing with 15 stop so I mght get closed for it is a bit close to the action but I am allready in positive territory.

Edit
Market has become very still so I put stoploss at BE and position on 25 trailing stop. Will see tommorrow morning what has happened.

Edit
Was taken out for breakeven. Still happy with the trade as I could have taken 20pips last night but decided to give it a chance by setting stoploss to breakeven.
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  • #15,102
  • May 26, 2008 11:47am May 26, 2008 11:47am
Hi
one question:

is a simple break of the 0 line by the MACD already a signal or is it just in combination with the larger trend based on the MA's?
Of the last 7 simple 0 MACD breaks in 4h EURUSD probably 6 out of them would have resulted in a profit!!!!!!!!!!

Cheers, Till
  • #15,103
  • May 26, 2008 12:02pm May 26, 2008 12:02pm
Quoting RemingtonTJ
Hi
one question:

is a simple break of the 0 line by the MACD already a signal or is it just in combination with the larger trend based on the MA's?
Of the last 7 simple 0 MACD breaks in 4h EURUSD probably 6 out of them would have resulted in a profit!!!!!!!!!!

Cheers, Till
Backtesting is the answer. If it proves to be profitable then you have a high probability trade each time it crosses zero.

But you can have 3-4 wrong in a row where with TC you hardly get 2 wrong in a row. If you only use 2% of capital as risk then it is worth the backtesting.
  • #15,104
  • May 26, 2008 12:22pm May 26, 2008 12:22pm
Quoting Phillip Nel
I dont trade other pairs but I scrolled through the pairs and saw this beautiful rhythm executed to the letter. Pullbacks to the 21ema and then the close above the 21ema, pulled back to it and a move away to a possible 89sma. You dont get them better then this.

I am trailing with 15 stop so I mght get closed for it is a bit close to the action but I am allready in positive territory.
good trade,there was also a TL from high wich was broken before .
i think market closed right now,please let us know what did u do with ur ey trade
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  • #15,105
  • May 26, 2008 12:39pm May 26, 2008 12:39pm
Quoting Phillip Nel
Just come home from work(did the deal at work) and open my home MT4 and there it is. HOLIDAY. I totally forgot about it.
Well I am in the deal and all my backtesting was done not even knowing when is it holiday and not so I will stay and trust the system.
In spite of the holiday, in the morning on the close of 04:00-08:00 bar (GMT+1) on GBPUSD a risky trader could have made a nice conter-trend trade on the LH. I don't trade conter-trend setups now but follow all - this one almost reached EMA21 and could bring 30..34 pips/lot.
  • #15,106
  • May 26, 2008 1:52pm May 26, 2008 1:52pm
I didn't have a signal on EUR, but then I saw Phillip's chart, I re-opened the platform and it was there .
  • #15,107
  • May 26, 2008 2:03pm May 26, 2008 2:03pm
Quoting ira
I didn't have a signal on EUR, but then I saw Phillip's chart, I re-opened the platform and it was there .
That is very strange because it shows on my Interbank platform as well.
  • #15,108
  • Edited 5:29pm May 26, 2008 5:16pm | Edited 5:29pm
Quoting ira
I didn't have a signal on EUR, but then I saw Phillip's chart, I re-opened the platform and it was there .
This is not very strange to me at all. I guess you are using ver 103 of MACD. I had lost few good trade as a result of that before I realised the cause.

What I do is to switch to other time frame probably switch to 1hr and switch back to 4hr to refresh and it will be fine.

That is the reason why you get the signal later when you reopen your platform. It has same effect as switching to other time frame and back to 4hr.

I hope this help
THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN GOOD AND EXCELLENT IS ATTENTION TO DETAILS.
  • #15,109
  • May 26, 2008 5:47pm May 26, 2008 5:47pm
Phillip Nel- Daily Wrap Up, 25 May, 2008. Taken from page 1,006, post 15080. Written copy for those with difficulty understanding spoken English.
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File Type: doc PhillipNel daily wrapup 25May2008.doc   8 KB | 623 downloads
  • #15,110
  • May 26, 2008 10:28pm May 26, 2008 10:28pm
I have a question regarding TC signals.
Do we take a TC uptrend signal even when price has not crossed above the 89SMA and vice versa?
  • #15,111
  • May 27, 2008 12:57am May 27, 2008 12:57am
At the moment a bullish TC can be seen on GBPUSD (GMT+1) but the signal bar closes very near to the prev. 2 highs (their shadows) which may be a resistance (or have formed below a resistance area). I'm not sure about entering here and think to stay away and wait for a possible breakout up, and then look for a retest for possible entry - is that correct?
  • #15,112
  • May 27, 2008 1:07am May 27, 2008 1:07am
Quoting fxinvesta
I have a question regarding TC signals.
Do we take a TC uptrend signal even when price has not crossed above the 89SMA and vice versa?
Just my IMHO: if I correctly understood the question, you are speaking about TCs in the direction of SMA89 which may appear at the end of a trend, when price crosses EMA21 and may move to SMA89. So in fact this TC setups on MACD can be called not trend-continuation but last movement-continuation. By my modest experience, they may be less reliable than TCs from EMA21 in the direction of a trend (from SMA89), but if R:R to SMA89 as a target is Ok and all situation really looks like trend reversal, they might also be Ok.

Example: last week on GBPUSD on 04:00 bar 20/05/08 (GMT+1) there was a BOZ (not a TC but a bit similar) in the direction of SMA89 - those who have taken it and trailed the part of position by EMA21, as Phillip described, could ride all the last up movement on GBPUSD and still be in the trade (max. unfixed profit was 300 pips).
  • #15,113
  • May 27, 2008 2:09am May 27, 2008 2:09am
I took the Euro short today on 5mins again........two lots for +12. I got in late really for this one could have been another +12. Down to the 21ema/low for the previous day/trendline.
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  • #15,114
  • Edited 3:34am May 27, 2008 2:32am | Edited 3:34am
i had a -24pips loss today.h4 was ok ,and look at the H1 inset,there was a bullish candle after some doji. and i entered after some retracement after the signal candle ,but didnt work
edit: German Consumer Confidence
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/m...etail_star.gif 4.9
5.75.6http://www.forexfactory.com/images/m...us_revised.gif

i think this is the only possible reason.
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  • #15,115
  • May 27, 2008 2:42am May 27, 2008 2:42am
I bailed on the Euro after the brutal German Consumer Confidence report. There is a lot of speculation whether the ECB will slash rates.
  • #15,116
  • Edited 3:47am May 27, 2008 3:14am | Edited 3:47am
Again using my 5 mins, i took another +7 from the Euro and +13 from the GBP in less than 1 minute, which i enjoyed, all short. I could have stayed in both for alot more, but i am taking short trades today. so +32 so far.
  • #15,117
  • Edited 5:01am May 27, 2008 4:00am | Edited 5:01am
Quoting bshadroo
i had a -24pips loss today.h4 was ok ,and look at the H1 inset,there was a bullish candle after some doji. and i entered after some retracement after the signal candle ,but didnt work
edit: German Consumer Confidence
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/m...etail_star.gif 4.9
5.75.6http://www.forexfactory.com/images/m...us_revised.gif

i think this is the only possible reason.
Sorry for your Euro loss this morning, this is the only long i can see on the 1 hour. A very quick long trade for +18, after slippage etc. maybe a profit of +10 or +12. Exit R2.
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  • #15,118
  • May 27, 2008 5:00am May 27, 2008 5:00am
I took a loss of 29pips as well today on the U/J which gave a TC short on 00:00 candle.
Pros: small candles approaching 21EMA, signal candle had nice tail to topside.
Only downside I see is the time of day...
Phillip, would you please comment - would you have taken the trade, as I saw no reason not too.



Quoting bshadroo
i had a -24pips loss today.h4 was ok ,and look at the H1 inset,there was a bullish candle after some doji. and i entered after some retracement after the signal candle ,but didnt work
edit: German Consumer Confidence
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/m...etail_star.gif 4.9
5.75.6http://www.forexfactory.com/images/m...us_revised.gif

i think this is the only possible reason.
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  • #15,119
  • May 27, 2008 5:42am May 27, 2008 5:42am
Quoting BenStevo
I took a loss of 29pips as well today on the U/J which gave a TC short on 00:00 candle.
Pros: small candles approaching 21EMA, signal candle had nice tail to topside.
Only downside I see is the time of day...
Phillip, would you please comment - would you have taken the trade, as I saw no reason not too.
I think the time of day has its part to play here, but also there are not necessarily 4hr answers to these issues. If we look at the daily time frame the 89sma is close by which might impact on the trade. It looks better if we use a 4hr chart and scale up the moving average to a 450sma. We can see that the daily 89sma has indeed affected the success of the trade and that the price has bounced off it to go long. The daily 89sma has provided support for the price and the short trade runs straight into it.
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  • #15,120
  • Edited 8:21am May 27, 2008 6:33am | Edited 8:21am
give me back my 24 pips
H4 :sell signal,
H1 & M30: pulled back to broken TL and then went away from it
edit:he was a good boy, taked me back my 24pips
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