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4 Hour Strategy (MACD)

  • #15,061
  • May 23, 2008 11:10am May 23, 2008 11:10am
dear phillip
ur 5773 stoploss was exactly in conjunction with the 21ema and a TL in M5 system ,and price doesnt go below them since i writing this,dont u look at the smallet TF (for example ur M5 system) when u wanna trail ur stop?i think u could trail ur stoploss below 21 in M5 system.
thx
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  • #15,062
  • May 23, 2008 11:22am May 23, 2008 11:22am
Quoting bshadroo
dear phillip
ur 5773 stoploss was exactly in conjunction with the 21ema and a TL in M5 system ,and price doesnt go below them since i writing this,dont u look at the smallet TF (for example ur M5 system) when u wanna trail ur stop?i think u could trail ur stoploss below 21 in M5 system.
thx

Yes that would have been much better. I was so relieved that it actually brought some profit that I trailed by a fixed amount.
Have a great weekend
  • #15,063
  • May 23, 2008 12:26pm May 23, 2008 12:26pm
I have been following this thread for only a few weeks.It's great to see you guys sharing about this system, thanks.I need some thoughts about TC signal.We all know that not all TC signals are valid. I am trying to find ways to filter out those invalid signals.I notice that instead of entering at the opening of the new candle, we can place a Buy Stop/Sell Stop at the High/Low of the candle with TC signal, that way we can eliminate some bad signals.However, we will miss some pips. What do you guys think?
  • #15,064
  • May 23, 2008 3:33pm May 23, 2008 3:33pm
Hi, can someone tell me if this is this a legit sell entry or is it wrong:
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  • #15,065
  • May 23, 2008 6:24pm May 23, 2008 6:24pm
HI guys,

I´ve been following this thread for a while now. I´m posting the trade I took today since I´ve been gaining confidence in the method. I took the TC but decided to grab a quick profit on the first lot and let the second on breakeven with a trailing stop. Too bad i didn´t stick with my original plan with a TP at 1.5790. Any comments are appreciated.
Thanks!
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  • #15,066
  • May 24, 2008 12:15am May 24, 2008 12:15am
Quoting BIL2205
Thanks Phillip as Always for your reply.
I have moved my SL to BE and plan to close the trade later today .
Nadia,.

Hey Nadia, nice to see you!!!! I was wondering where have you been .
  • #15,067
  • May 24, 2008 12:17am May 24, 2008 12:17am
Quoting fjaragon
HI guys,

I´ve been following this thread for a while now. I´m posting the trade I took today since I´ve been gaining confidence in the method. I took the TC but decided to grab a quick profit on the first lot and let the second on breakeven with a trailing stop. Too bad i didn´t stick with my original plan with a TP at 1.5790. Any comments are appreciated.
Thanks!
Good trade and welcome all the newcomers!
  • #15,068
  • May 24, 2008 12:37am May 24, 2008 12:37am
Quoting fxinvesta
I have been following this thread for only a few weeks.It's great to see you guys sharing about this system, thanks.I need some thoughts about TC signal.We all know that not all TC signals are valid. I am trying to find ways to filter out those invalid signals.I notice that instead of entering at the opening of the new candle, we can place a Buy Stop/Sell Stop at the High/Low of the candle with TC signal, that way we can eliminate some bad signals.However, we will miss some pips. What do you guys think?

That is a very good question, and I have been thinking about it for a while. I wanted to make some research on this topic, but still can't get my hands over it. I think all depends on the environment of the trade. Is there any sup/res near, what do candles tell you, where are the MA's? False TC signals usually come at the end of the trend, but there is a divergence that will warn you, then price behaviour. If there is some major sup/res the TC most likely will fail too.
As for your suggestion, I'm not sure. We are trying to minimize losses, sometimes price can run 20-25 pips to the previous high and you can be at b/e already.
If someone has other ways to filter bad TC's, please share.
  • #15,069
  • May 24, 2008 12:43am May 24, 2008 12:43am
I wanted to review the GBP yesterday showing some longer term context out of interest, and to demonstrate how reading such charts might benefit our 4 hr trading.The GBP found support on the 4hr 365 ema but also on two longer term moving averages also. All of this strengthened the possibility of support here. Also we had the inside candles and what do we see?........the 89sma from the daily chart cutting right through them. Hence the indecision. Note also how the price used the 21 ema from the daily as a step up to the present levels.

And where did the price stop for the day........the high of the previous day, my trade target.
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  • #15,070
  • May 24, 2008 3:46am May 24, 2008 3:46am
I think filtering false TC trades is partly a matter of experience. If one can judge also the circumstances in which the TC appears, then more caution could be applied to the trade. If there is no obvious exit or target for the trade then the 4hr candle could be traded from the high or low of the candle, rather then its close. That way the price has to demonstrate it is going in the chosen direction before entering. Other criterion for not blindly entering a TC might be the price having reached its target, like the GBP on Friday afternoon. The TC candle has a tail, it might have another go up to the high from the previous day but it was also it was a Friday. All of these things need to be factored in. If in doubt, trade the high or low of the TC candle instead.

I dont think there are technical reason for judging a false TC, it is a matter of experience and context. Of course there will always be losers.
  • #15,071
  • May 24, 2008 4:26am May 24, 2008 4:26am
Hey man,

When does the TC show up? e.g. at the end of the 4H candle or at a specific time during the 4 hours? I wonder...

Thanks.
  • #15,072
  • May 24, 2008 5:11am May 24, 2008 5:11am
Quoting Lovebug
Hey man,

When does the TC show up? e.g. at the end of the 4H candle or at a specific time during the 4 hours? I wonder...

Thanks.
During the 4hrs of a candle the signal can change considerably. Therefore the signal is only what it is, ie; a TC, when the candle is closed. Anything else is simply guessing. The trade is taken at the close of the signal candle.
  • #15,073
  • May 24, 2008 11:36am May 24, 2008 11:36am
Quoting Phillip Nel
YOU HAVE TO MASTER THIS RHYTHM CYCLE TO SEE WHAT TO ANTICIPATE
.
Hi Sir Philip,Hope u can help because am finding it difficult in opening this rhythm cycle.
Alnames.
  • #15,074
  • May 25, 2008 2:50am May 25, 2008 2:50am
Quoting alnames
.
Hi Sir Philip,Hope u can help because am finding it difficult in opening this rhythm cycle.
Alnames.
Hi
I have just downloaded it. Looks fine.
Phillip
  • #15,075
  • May 25, 2008 9:03am May 25, 2008 9:03am
Quoting bshadroo
dear phillip
ur 5773 stoploss was exactly in conjunction with the 21ema and a TL in M5 system ,and price doesnt go below them since i writing this,dont u look at the smallet TF (for example ur M5 system) when u wanna trail ur stop?i think u could trail ur stoploss below 21 in M5 system.
thx
When i use an area of previous swing high or low, or a moving average line on the 5 minute as a stop level, (allthough it is really just a mental stop as I am watching the trade live) this produces a much closer stop than one based on the 4hr levels obviously. However you must remember that when trading the 5 minute levels I'm just looking to make maybe 5 - 10 pips at the most. If you are looking to make 25 pips on a four hour based trend continuation signal, you will need to give it more room as most likely it will take much longer for this to happen than a 5 pip move. It may move up 5 and down 5 several times in the process, with higher highs and higher lows each time until it works its way up to your 25 pip profit level. Of course this is all based on how volatile the market is when you make your trade. Time of day, news breaking, amount of people trading(thin market)and so on. Its not an exact science. It requires the discretion only available from a pattern recognition trained human brain. Which comes from days/months or more of chart watching. But once you "see" what is there beneath the surface by looking at:

the larger time frames,
the news about to break, if any,
the time of day(market opening/closings),
chart patterns (descending/ascending triangles)and the like,
candle patterns(evening stars,morning stars,inside bars, engulfing bearish/bullish,round topped or bottomed small candles)and the other ones Phillip mentions in his candlestick pattern mp3/pdf.

Then you will be very much better prepared to anticipate the direction the market will most likely take, and in doing so be able to see where the level is on your chart that if crossed, your anticipated direction may not be correct and its time to get out of that trade.
This is really the definition in where to place your stops.
Place your stops at that place on the chart where you do not expect the price to go unless your analysis is wrong. Because there is nothing much more frustrating than having spent all the time and mental energy making the correct analysis and then to have it all wasted by placing your stop to close. Having it take out your position only to see the market go right where you thought it was going........We've all done it......more than once.

Thats my two pips worth Pipip.........Jimdandy
  • #15,076
  • May 25, 2008 9:11am May 25, 2008 9:11am
Hello to everybody on this lovely thread.I follow it from 3 months and I just practise it with taking TC signals.I have difficulties in choosing how many days I have to take back to take the right trendline for every couple.Sometimes I took 10 days-it is uptrend,sometimes i took 30 days -it is down trend.So my question is how to know how much candles to take to know what is the TC.Thank you in advance.
  • #15,077
  • May 25, 2008 10:00am May 25, 2008 10:00am
Quoting fena74
Hello to everybody on this lovely thread.I follow it from 3 months and I just practise it with taking TC signals.I have difficulties in choosing how many days I have to take back to take the right trendline for every couple.Sometimes I took 10 days-it is uptrend,sometimes i took 30 days -it is down trend.So my question is how to know how much candles to take to know what is the TC.Thank you in advance.
I am not clear what you are asking here. Are you asking the best way to draw your trendlines?, or a question about TC signals?.
  • #15,078
  • May 25, 2008 10:07am May 25, 2008 10:07am
I ask when I see some couple how to understand what is the main trend for this couple.If I choose longer period sometimes the main trend looks uptrend and if i choose just 10-12 candles I see downtrend.So I have difficulties in knowing if the main trend at the moment is up or downtrend.I know that the system use 4hour but for determing main trend i use dayly graf.Thank you.
  • #15,079
  • May 25, 2008 12:38pm May 25, 2008 12:38pm
Nice to be back live again with mp3
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  • #15,080
  • May 25, 2008 1:18pm May 25, 2008 1:18pm
Quoting fena74
I ask when I see some couple how to understand what is the main trend for this couple.If I choose longer period sometimes the main trend looks uptrend and if i choose just 10-12 candles I see downtrend.So I have difficulties in knowing if the main trend at the moment is up or downtrend.I know that the system use 4hour but for determing main trend i use dayly graf.Thank you.
I'm not sure if I understood you, but if we are above 89 and price retraces to the 21 and moved up, we are in an up trend and we are looking for TC's up and vice versa for down.
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