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Where can I learn more about Price Action like those in James16 charts? 9 replies

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james16 Chart Thread

  • #10,921
  • May 22, 2008 3:53pm May 22, 2008 3:53pm
Anyone's thoughts on a close of this if it stays like this? It's spelling out with confluence for me and so I plan on trading it. It looks solid unless I am missing something, which I honestly don't think I am.
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I dream, therefore I become.
  • #10,922
  • May 22, 2008 4:00pm May 22, 2008 4:00pm
Quoting mike w
Anyone's thoughts on a close of this if it stays like this? It's spelling out with confluence for me and so I plan on trading it. It looks solid unless I am missing something, which I honestly don't think I am.
Nice pin off 61 fib. If I shorted it, I'd have tight stop....
Here is another view. I took some of these longs off ppz....
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  • #10,923
  • May 22, 2008 4:00pm May 22, 2008 4:00pm
Quoting mike w
Anyone's thoughts on a close of this if it stays like this? It's spelling out with confluence for me and so I plan on trading it. It looks solid unless I am missing something, which I honestly don't think I am.
Hi Mike

If it stays at this level we have a daily BUOB.
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  • #10,924
  • May 22, 2008 4:06pm May 22, 2008 4:06pm
So perhaps we should read the 4h bear pin as a signal that we might have a bit of a retracement before the BUOB works on out? The BUOB doesn't seem like it's in a very good spot to trade on the break of the high, R:R wise. I'm going to go for 1:1 on a retrace.
Hindsight is 20/20
  • #10,925
  • May 22, 2008 4:13pm May 22, 2008 4:13pm
Thanks Raczek and FXProcessor, it's much appreciated.

FXProcessor, although it may close as a BUOB, with the current downside movement, would you consider to trade it that way? As I see it, we are in a small downtrend on lower timeframes (4 hour) and this was just a wave to try at the trendline again. I've noticed with any downwards movements, those bars get negated fairly often.

Raczek, thanks for noting the fib levels too, that gives me another confluence for the trade and yes I will have a tight stop loss at around 104.50 or so- around 10 to 15 pips above the pin bar.

Of course, in any case, it has to close first.
Thanks again!
I dream, therefore I become.
  • #10,926
  • May 22, 2008 4:50pm May 22, 2008 4:50pm
Hi Mike

If it closed as a BUOB my preference would be long but Im not trading this pair either way for now.

cheers

FXP


Quoting mike w
Thanks Raczek and FXProcessor, it's much appreciated.

FXProcessor, although it may close as a BUOB, with the current downside movement, would you consider to trade it that way? As I see it, we are in a small downtrend on lower timeframes (4 hour) and this was just a wave to try at the trendline again. I've noticed with any downwards movements, those bars get negated fairly often.

Raczek, thanks for noting the fib levels too, that gives me another confluence for the trade and yes I will have a tight stop loss at around 104.50 or so- around 10 to 15 pips above the pin bar.

Of course, in any case, it has to close first.
Thanks again!
  • #10,927
  • May 22, 2008 8:08pm May 22, 2008 8:08pm
I often keep this in front of me/on the wall, next to candlestick set ups wich are also v useful.
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Money & Pain Respect the market, protect your capital, be patient
  • #10,928
  • May 22, 2008 8:12pm May 22, 2008 8:12pm
Quoting fxprocessor
Hi Mike

If it closed as a BUOB my preference would be long but Im not trading this pair either way for now.

cheers

FXP
Me either. Too many criss-crossing trendlines.

My gut says it'll break long and we are just crowding the weekly trendline first. (pink line)

And I like to use the daily as the strongest timeframe ...it has a BUOB eh.
Until it breaks into a clean area, I'm staying out. As tempting as it is to enter off that EMA bounce on the 1 hour!!
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Bundy's status today: "Waiting..."
  • #10,929
  • Edited 9:09pm May 22, 2008 8:40pm | Edited 9:09pm
Same trend lines shown on 15 minute and with pivots. Good to see the interaction with price. :nerd:

Shows how easy it would be to go either way from here. lol

Probably my chart quota for the week done now.

By the way I just bought a little. Half position that'll I'll add to if good. I'm thinking USD bullish for the day.

Edit: Yeah real smart entering that one too. ....still slip up occasionally. Going to keep it there. It's small.
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Bundy's status today: "Waiting..."
  • #10,930
  • May 22, 2008 9:42pm May 22, 2008 9:42pm
The Pair broke below its trendline on the 8th. Went into a pennant, culminating with an inside bar formed on the 19th. It broke short and has know retraced and formed a pin bar right at the 50 retracement area. I'm short with a stop above the inside bar.

Besides equities can't strengthen any more right know, can they???
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  • #10,931
  • May 22, 2008 10:08pm May 22, 2008 10:08pm
Quoting toyboy tramp
I often keep this in front of me/on the wall, next to candlestick set ups wich are also v useful.
Thanks for sharing...
  • #10,932
  • May 22, 2008 10:11pm May 22, 2008 10:11pm
Quoting joebryce
The Pair broke below its trendline on the 8th. Went into a pennant, culminating with an inside bar formed on the 19th. It broke short and has know retraced and formed a pin bar right at the 50 retracement area. I'm short with a stop above the inside bar.

Besides equities can't strengthen any more right know, can they???
Hi Joe.

We don't know if that's the real trend line or not until price moves below 102.57. I have made too many mistakes in that area until I read Vic Sperandeo's book on how to draw the correct trendline. There could be a chance that UJ will touch 108 area before trend turns. Of course, we don't know that until it happens

On the other hand, as raczekfx has shown in his chart, we have a BUOB coming from the PPZ area on the daily and that could mean something. Now let me throwing in another chart and you will see that this BUOB is boucing off from the lower channel there, assuming we might have an uptrend channel. This might be the signal of UJ will actually move higher. Just a thought!
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  • #10,933
  • May 22, 2008 10:25pm May 22, 2008 10:25pm
Quoting goodtiding5
Hi Joe.

We don't know if that's the real trend line or not until price moves below 102.57. I have made too many mistakes in that area until I read Vic Sperandeo's book on how to draw the correct trendline. There could be a chance that UJ will touch 108 area before trend turns. Of course, we don't know that until it happens

On the other hand, as raczekfx has shown in his chart, we have a BUOB coming from the PPZ area on the daily and that could mean something. Now let me throwing in another chart and you will see that this BUOB is boucing off from the lower channel there, assuming we might have an uptrend channel. This might be the signal of UJ will actually move higher. Just a thought!
Thanks for the feed back. Not sure I understand your trendline. Mine acted as clear support for several months. It was broken and then became resistance. It seems to me that your trend line can never be broken since you are merely connecting it to the most recent low. Am I missing something?
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  • #10,934
  • May 23, 2008 9:18am May 23, 2008 9:18am
Quoting bundyraider
By the way I just bought a little. Half position that'll I'll add to if good. I'm thinking USD bullish for the day.

Edit: Yeah real smart entering that one too. ....still slip up occasionally. Going to keep it there. It's small.
See.... trading with preconceived ideas of direction is "trying to be right".
Just not worth it.

Price action and Confluence rules ...and not just any confluence. (I said it myself in the posts. It could go any way.) You have to zoom out and look at the complete picture. ...And, wait if it has more hurdles to a clearer run.

There was mixed information everywhere and I took a trade (even if was small) just to have something on in the market. ...and to do that, I used my thoughts on where things "should" go. "Should" is a no-no word when trading. All that matters is the probability. The best probability trades are the A++ trades.

I know there are a lot of people out there thinking that Price action is the Holy Grail. It's not. It a tool that has to be coupled with patience and self protection. ...You wait for the trades that give you the best chance of success, and you enter them with a position size that takes into account that NOTHING IS EVER a sure thing, even the best setup ever!

Sorry for rambling, ....but I know someone will read that and start to 'click' . I have, and about 95% of the time now I stick to it. It's made a massive difference.

.
Bundy's status today: "Waiting..."
  • #10,935
  • May 23, 2008 9:26am May 23, 2008 9:26am
Quoting bundyraider
See.... trading with preconceived ideas of direction is "trying to be right".
Just not worth it.

Price action and Confluence rules ...and not just any confluence. (I said it myself in the posts. It could go any way.) You have to zoom out and look at the complete picture. ...And, wait if it has more hurdles to a clearer run.

There was mixed information everywhere and I took a trade (even if was small) just to have something on in the market. ...and to do that, I used my thoughts on where things "should" go. "Should" is a no-no word when trading. All that matters is the probability. The best probability trades are the A++ trades.

I know there are a lot of people out there thinking that Price action is the Holy Grail. It's not. It a tool that has to be coupled with patience and self protection. ...You wait for the trades that give you the best chance of success, and you enter them with a position size that takes into account that NOTHING IS EVER a sure thing, even the best setup ever!

Sorry for rambling, ....but I know someone will read that and start to 'click' . I have, and about 95% of the time now I stick to it. It's made a massive difference.

.
That's an excellent post.

Thank you.
  • #10,936
  • May 23, 2008 9:27am May 23, 2008 9:27am
Quoting bundyraider
See.... trading with preconceived ideas of direction is "trying to be right".
Just not worth it.

Price action and Confluence rules ...and not just any confluence. (I said it myself in the posts. It could go any way.) You have to zoom out and look at the complete picture. ...And, wait if it has more hurdles to a clearer run.

There was mixed information everywhere and I took a trade (even if was small) just to have something on in the market. ...and to do that, I used my thoughts on where things "should" go. "Should" is a no-no word when trading. All that matters is the probability. The best probability trades are the A++ trades.

I know there are a lot of people out there thinking that Price action is the Holy Grail. It's not. It a tool that has to be coupled with patience and self protection. ...You wait for the trades that give you the best chance of success, and you enter them with a position size that takes into account that NOTHING IS EVER a sure thing, even the best setup ever!

Sorry for rambling, ....but I know someone will read that and start to 'click' . I have, and about 95% of the time now I stick to it. It's made a massive difference.

.
Great post
  • #10,937
  • Edited 5:13pm May 23, 2008 4:57pm | Edited 5:13pm
Quoting jarroo
365 ema at 1.9800 looks good.

Luck: When preparation and opportunity meet.

Or You get lucky sometimes when as bundy says . . "coupled with patience and self protection. ...You wait for the trades that give you the best chance of success, and you enter them with a position size that takes into account that NOTHING IS EVER a sure thing, even the best setup ever!"
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
  • #10,938
  • Edited May 24, 2008 12:43am May 23, 2008 11:35pm | Edited May 24, 2008 12:43am
Nice post, but how do you evaluate probability of success for trades? PA, patterns, anything else, any "formal" evaluation method, any documented output from the evaluation?

Thanks,
R

PS. Formal evaluation sounds a bit stupid and academic, but implementation of such could be simple, e.g. a checklist:

Is possible change of trend supported by

  1. trendlines (break of current MT trendline, other supporting / resisting LT trendlines)
  2. Fib levels
  3. S/R levels
  4. PA
  5. fundamentals
  6. other stuff, but what?

More yes to previous questions, higher probability of success?


Quoting bundyraider
See.... trading with preconceived ideas of direction is "trying to be right".
Just not worth it.

Price action and Confluence rules ...and not just any confluence. (I said it myself in the posts. It could go any way.) You have to zoom out and look at the complete picture. ...And, wait if it has more hurdles to a clearer run.

There was mixed information everywhere and I took a trade (even if was small) just to have something on in the market. ...and to do that, I used my thoughts on where things "should" go. "Should" is a no-no word when trading. All that matters is the probability. The best probability trades are the A++ trades.

I know there are a lot of people out there thinking that Price action is the Holy Grail. It's not. It a tool that has to be coupled with patience and self protection. ...You wait for the trades that give you the best chance of success, and you enter them with a position size that takes into account that NOTHING IS EVER a sure thing, even the best setup ever!

Sorry for rambling, ....but I know someone will read that and start to 'click' . I have, and about 95% of the time now I stick to it. It's made a massive difference.

.
  • #10,939
  • May 23, 2008 11:54pm May 23, 2008 11:54pm
Haven't read Sperandeo's book, but one of my "trendline rules" says that as long as price keeps on making higher lows, it is in uptrend and you need to create your tl accordingly. And that is what goodtiding5 has done. His lower tl is supported by channel top line, which nicely confirms the direction.

Need to read that book one day, though. Thanks for the reference.

R

PS. Seems that old Vic has authored several books. What book specifically are you referring to?


Quoting joebryce
Thanks for the feed back. Not sure I understand your trendline. Mine acted as clear support for several months. It was broken and then became resistance. It seems to me that your trend line can never be broken since you are merely connecting it to the most recent low. Am I missing something?
  • #10,940
  • May 24, 2008 7:33am May 24, 2008 7:33am
Im seeing a dhlc on the daily seems like it is ready to fall to the previous trading range. Anyone else liking a short here?
"Whether you think you can or can't, you're right." Henry Ford
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