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  • #261
  • May 21, 2008 11:14pm May 21, 2008 11:14pm
Quoting Money-RX
Good evening - any no brainers looking good tonight?
Analyzing charts for more setups now. Sorry I've slowed down a bit posting here. Working on a little science project. JPY trade is underway.
  • #262
  • May 21, 2008 11:19pm May 21, 2008 11:19pm
Hey Billy Ray! What do you think of this one? The trend is down. If this is the bottom and GU turns bullish from here then I would expect it to spend some time "digging out the trough"

Fundamentally the UK is crying inflation which should be bullish for the pound. But even if that is true there should be a sell trade around here somewhere. if not at this level then the next one up.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Energy and persistence conquer all things! Ben Franklin
  • #263
  • May 21, 2008 11:26pm May 21, 2008 11:26pm
Shorted E/J twice today from the top around 163 - 5AM & 1PM for a nice profit. Will consider again at that level. Currently 162.50s
History is written by the victors.
  • #264
  • May 22, 2008 12:59am May 22, 2008 12:59am
Here's a new thread with a little deeper explaination of this technique:

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=87869
  • #265
  • May 22, 2008 1:55am May 22, 2008 1:55am
Thanks for the info BillyRay, I plan on starting to follow this thread Surpised I didn't find it sooner...hmmm
  • #266
  • May 22, 2008 1:58am May 22, 2008 1:58am
Quoting Iron-man
Hey Billy Ray! What do you think of this one? The trend is down. If this is the bottom and GU turns bullish from here then I would expect it to spend some time "digging out the trough"

Fundamentally the UK is crying inflation which should be bullish for the pound. But even if that is true there should be a sell trade around here somewhere. if not at this level then the next one up.
Hey there! I was just looking at this. Citi's analysis paid off again at 1.9730 it looks like. I was thinking a couple things:
If there is a sell off today of GBP I want to put on more of my long position at around 1.9653, all the way down to 1.9623.

If price breaks through 1.9730, which it looks like its doing right now, then I would say you're right, 1.9786 area looks tough, as well as 1.9885-1.9890. I marked up the chart then looked at your post. Pretty much the same.

And I think everyone is crying inflation right now except for the US. "Everything's fine, everything's fine..." seems to be the current strategy for the Fed.
  • #267
  • May 22, 2008 2:19am May 22, 2008 2:19am
Billy

Just read your thread of explanation of your method of trading. ABSOLUTELY GREAT!!! Thanks for taking the time to educate those of us who are trying to learn the FOREX, or what some call the " Wild West" of all trading.I am trading more profitably every week as I learn more, but sometimes so many indicators that are used in so many different methods out there can become confusing.
I just love the simplicity of your method . Just printed that post off and tacked it to my bulletin board . Thanks Billy!

Quoting BillyRayValentine
Here's a new thread with a little deeper explaination of this technique:

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=87869
  • #268
  • May 22, 2008 2:48am May 22, 2008 2:48am
Quoting BillyRayValentine
Back in March of 1984, something happened. AUD made a high before a serious decline which hasn't been seen until now (really thought this was going somewhere didnt you). I'm expecting a reaction off this level at .9648, if AUD can crawl its way up there, which I think it eventually will.

Ironman sent me some sell side research and they are seeing resistance at .9670. Now I swear for the life of me I combed through charts and can't figure out where they got this number, because the next level I see with any significance is 1.9700. Maybe one of you could figure it out.

I dont have access to daily data back this far right now (switching from Bloomberg this week) but I should by early next week, so it might be hard for me to make a decisive call on this without sufficient information. Regardless, from the weekly charts, this area stuck pretty hard and might be worth investigating. Any thoughts please let me know.

Here's the chart from way back when on the luxurious metatrader platform:
Looks like that 0.9648 level actually held! Atleast for now. Price just broke through the top of the last resistance turned support. Might get a selloff if the hour bar closes below it. Anyway, I didnt take the short but next level I'm looking at higher to sell is 0.9670. Not looking to buy it for now.
  • #269
  • May 22, 2008 2:55am May 22, 2008 2:55am
Long USD/CHF 1.0175 - 1.0166

Good reactionary level for this pair. Price had a hard time deciding on this last downfall where it wanted to start to retrace (the current pullback on the chart below); those 3 peaks in the middle of the charts have a range of about 65 pips, so a little unclear. But the lower level looks solid, if price gets that far, which I think it should.
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  • #270
  • May 22, 2008 3:02am May 22, 2008 3:02am
Quoting BillyRayValentine
Long USD/JPY 102.74 to 102.60

IF JPY can break past current support of 103.13, this is the next area to be looking at. You can see from the chart its been a painful zone for price on numerous occassions; many traders/banks are going to have their eyes on it.
Good trade so far about +60 pips. Targeting 103.50 if it can clear this diagonal trendline.
  • #271
  • Edited 3:27am May 22, 2008 3:09am | Edited 3:27am
Short EUR/USD 1.5840 - 1.5852

I know what you're thinking. "Why short EUR right now?" Well, I agree, but if anything I'm expecting some type of reaction from this for a number of different reasons.
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  • #272
  • Edited 4:06am May 22, 2008 3:50am | Edited 4:06am
This is how I scalp intraday. These little "stabby" bars that poke out from a downtrend are good reactionary levels in an uptrend, and are good for anywhere from usually +15 to + hundreds if they mean the continuation of a bigger trend. Always watch out for these, especially if they coincide with more historical significance. This is a 1 hr chart.

This is the JPY trade long. At this point price has the potential to go either way, because the bigger trend is down. My intraday target was hit for about +71 pips on the long side. I took most of it off and in my other account have a short which is good for about +23 pips so far, trying to get the most out of the downside on bigger size. This is how I trade typically in a case like this.

So that's about +90 pips on one pair in a couple hours. Just to give you an idea of what is possible. On both of these I got in with a total of 1 pip drawdown + 1.6 spread on each.

Dont feel like you need a lot of guts to pull the trigger on a short like this. Take a look at any chart and you'll see it happen almost every time. The more you see it the more you'll get comfortable with it.

Between these and bigger moves you'll find yourself very busy. No indicators required. Just your eyes.
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  • #273
  • May 22, 2008 4:17am May 22, 2008 4:17am
Quoting Iron-man
Hey Billy Ray! What do you think of this one? The trend is down. If this is the bottom and GU turns bullish from here then I would expect it to spend some time "digging out the trough"

Fundamentally the UK is crying inflation which should be bullish for the pound. But even if that is true there should be a sell trade around here somewhere. if not at this level then the next one up.
GBP just hit resistance at 1.9780. Looking at the charts again I think I stated it about 6 pips too high in the reply to Ironman. It just spiked on news though so I'm not a big fan of diving in around these times, though a minor selloff is about 60% probable right now, I would guess.
  • #274
  • Edited 4:48am May 22, 2008 4:31am | Edited 4:48am
Hourly closes hold the most significance. I stated in an earlier post about AUD that I was looking for a close below this resistance turned support to prove continuation. This is another one you'll see happen over and over again. I trade them when I feel strongly about them but generally have uneasiness due to the lack of proximity on the entry.

Shorting at that close whould have provided about +20-something pips right now. You can see the same thing happening but in reverse on the earlier move into the 0.9650 resistance.
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  • #275
  • May 22, 2008 6:14am May 22, 2008 6:14am
Quoting Iron-man
Congratulations Mary! And don't worry, we all struggle with seeing what we want to see. (I keep waiting for the AUD/USD to sell off) Time wasted on my part, since there are plenty other set ups to trade.

Also, Mary, you have another excellent point here. Control the size of losing trades. It makes them almost as good as winners. (I say almost because you can go broke taking a loss, LOL!) If your losing trades are one third to one half the size of your winning trades then you will be profitable at a 40% winning percentage.

Ex. 100 trades (Average winning trade 60 pips X 40 trades = 2,400 pips) - (Average losing trades 30 pips x 60 trades = 1,800 pips) Total net pips = +600

or

Ex. 100 trades (Average winning trade 60 pips X 40 trades = 2,400 pips) - (Average losing trades 20 pips x 60 trades = 1,200 pips) total net pips = +1,200

Elementary, I know, but we often forget these things in the heat of battle. It is something worth tracking in a note book or on a spreadsheet because it is the first step in consistency. (that whole crawl, then walk thing.)

And of course, once anyone is steady at that level there's no law against refining and improving our winning percentage. Consistency is the key.

Keep up the good work, Mary!

Good thing I never knew in the beginning how tricky this whole FX thing is gonna be, I'd probably never started.
Now I've gone too far to go back whilst still having quite a journey in front of me


Your calculation is brilliant stuff, it helps putting things into a more objective perspective.
Also it brings to life the whole idea of a risk reward ratio and why well thought through entries are so important to trimm S/Ls down to the necessary size. Thanks for that reminder.
Be like a post stamp! Stick to it until you get there!
  • #276
  • May 22, 2008 7:48am May 22, 2008 7:48am
Quoting BillyRayValentine
Long USD/JPY 102.74 to 102.60

IF JPY can break past current support of 103.13, this is the next area to be looking at. You can see from the chart its been a painful zone for price on numerous occassions; many traders/banks are going to have their eyes on it.
+87 pips so far, but fighting heavy resistance right now. I just want to say holy crap this thread has cranked out a lot of pips in past week. Keep 'em coming everybody!
  • #277
  • May 22, 2008 12:07pm May 22, 2008 12:07pm
Billy Ray,

Based on your S/R method as explained earlier, with today's down move of the Euro, am I right in looking at the 1H chart and seeing a possible bounce long at the .5685-.5675 level? This seems to meet your criteria and is move with the trend. Do you concur?
  • #278
  • May 22, 2008 6:20pm May 22, 2008 6:20pm
Quoting inforthepips
Billy Ray,

Based on your S/R method as explained earlier, with today's down move of the Euro, am I right in looking at the 1H chart and seeing a possible bounce long at the .5685-.5675 level? This seems to meet your criteria and is move with the trend. Do you concur?
I do, yes. I was looking to buy it there. Thats a pretty high probability trade. Thank you for pointing it out.
  • #279
  • May 22, 2008 8:40pm May 22, 2008 8:40pm
Quoting BillyRayValentine
Long USD/JPY 102.74 to 102.60

IF JPY can break past current support of 103.13, this is the next area to be looking at. You can see from the chart its been a painful zone for price on numerous occassions; many traders/banks are going to have their eyes on it.
Solid trade; +162 pips potential on this one. Now onto the next......
  • #280
  • May 22, 2008 8:45pm May 22, 2008 8:45pm
Quoting pamelomarcos
about GU, theres a really strong support lvl at 1.9361 and has bounced a couple of times, and its forming a descending triangle
This thing has been going for days with +390 pips on it if you were looking for the move up.

We're gonna start calling you the "Bottom Catcher" pamelomarcos. Nice call.
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