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I see oil reaching 100 USD?!

  • #221
  • May 14, 2008 8:24pm May 14, 2008 8:24pm
I, myself, am waiting for tuesday's low of $123.125 to broken and follow through initially before going short. Give up some profit for more certainty of the move.

Although I do expect a correction to a minimum $120, there might be higher prices to come quickly along the lines of the chart I posted a week ago $129-$132 fib zone.
  • #222
  • May 17, 2008 4:16pm May 17, 2008 4:16pm
Quoting narafa
Remember, this is what we were talking about earlier, that OPEC can't control the oil price anyway, even if they have the supply side of the equation only...

You see OPEC does know their production capactiy and they can't short oil in the future market because they know that they can't deliver...Now, the last rally in oil was due to demand and not due to a fall in the USD..Actually, the USD was going higher during the previous oil rally...This is why I believe that this will trigger funds liquidation and a big sell off in oil futures...

It is always like this...When OPEC was trying to defend the price of oil at the early $70s and $80s, the market sold off and then the trend persisted and oil continued higher...Now that the OPEC idiots already secured their next 12-18 months production at ridiculous prices at $70s and $80s, they have nothing to do with oil at $120s...All what they have to say is to stimulate the market to go higher so that they can secure their future production (after 12 months) at higher prices...And of course, the market has nothing to do but go down


Thanks,

Nader
narafa! good to see you my friend!

so back to OPEC, they control the supply side, yes, but they can also go into the futures market like any trader can. i am sure they have been trying to short this thing, this is so freakin bad for them! at this rate there will be an alternative to oil within 5 years LOL

looking from a trading standpoint, oil markets look ripe for a hard fall. im not crazy enough to go shorting it right now (obviously you are LOLOL), but we are at a point where the market is gathering "weak longs" (weve been here before, twice i think LOL). in a few weeks/months there will be enough weak guys on board to create a panic when prices retreat. ...is it me or have we had this same exact conversation before? LOL
Relax and be happy.
  • #223
  • Edited 4:12am May 19, 2008 12:53am | Edited 4:12am
Guys, what happened to trading WITH the trend and never trying to pick tops? I'm sure there are going to be some shorting opportunities along the way, but the trend is unmistakably uni-directional and we are in uncharted waters in terms of price so there are no reliable resistance levels.

Good luck to all of you who are shorting this most powerful of up-trends, but don't get caught with your overalls down or, much like in jail, you'll get f*&%ed.

merlin, don't bet on an alternative to oil being found so soon... Some of the most basic laws of physics are against you, and I think OPEC is quite aware of that. Contrary to the beliefs put forward by some people in this thread, OPEC is not a group of inept idiots - they are one of the most powerful organizations in the world whose leaders are some of the best educated people in the field, so rest assured they know what is in their best interest - much more so than you and I.
  • #224
  • May 19, 2008 4:06am May 19, 2008 4:06am
Quoting fierceman
the trend is unmistakably uni-directional and we are in uncharted waters in terms of price so there are no reliable s/r levels.
There isn't anything unchartered if price has gone there, as price will have, er, gone there
But I know what you mean.
Still, there are a few very apparent levels..

The whole irony of super strong trends is that if they don't take enough "breaks" in between like at the outlined levels attached below, there's simply nowhere to stall during the fall(for the very reason that there is no apparent s/r), making it one deadly drop once the slipping starts.

We've had this before on several items..

Here's the oil hobby chart I keep around for demo(still no account with commods here) - one might notice a tendency to chop things up into 10$ish chunks:

P.S. don't mind the labeling of "IBs", those are for weekly, not daily..
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: oil_080519_daily_sr.gif Size: 20 KB
Trust price. Know yourself.
  • #225
  • May 19, 2008 4:11am May 19, 2008 4:11am
I have edited my post to say "resistance" instead of s/r... That is what I really meant to say .

Anyway, of course there are going to be corrections, probably even major ones, but what I'm saying is that trading against that trend with no reliable resistance levels is a bad idea because it will be difficult to get the scale and timing right.
  • #226
  • May 19, 2008 10:54am May 19, 2008 10:54am
Suggestion to lift the thread's tittle up to $150, already being talked about as final top of this cycle.

At $151, however, $200 will be dragged in to the discussion
  • #227
  • May 19, 2008 2:43pm May 19, 2008 2:43pm
LOL yeah to a new memeber this thread title looks like a shorting prediction
Relax and be happy.
  • #228
  • May 19, 2008 2:48pm May 19, 2008 2:48pm
Quoting merlin
LOL yeah to a new memeber this thread title looks like a shorting prediction


Take a look at this

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...t=82485&page=5

My post #68
  • #229
  • May 20, 2008 10:01am May 20, 2008 10:01am
Past $129 - Soon knocking on the door and busting it down on $130.
  • #230
  • May 21, 2008 12:26am May 21, 2008 12:26am
Quoting SunTrader
Past $129 - Soon knocking on the door and busting it down on $130.
146.50

Come on everyone, Prediction time. Throw it in!


Bundy's status today: "Waiting..."
  • #231
  • May 21, 2008 8:23am May 21, 2008 8:23am
Quoting bundyraider
146.50

Come on everyone, Prediction time. Throw it in!


I've got my number in (see post 212 above) and we are right in the zone $128.79 - $132.22
  • #232
  • May 21, 2008 12:28pm May 21, 2008 12:28pm
Man am I glad I ride my bicycle. I don't even own a car any more. But I would love to get one of these BMW Hydro's. Yes thats right Hydro.

Bye, Bye oil

Inserted Video
Just Trade It
  • #233
  • May 21, 2008 2:06pm May 21, 2008 2:06pm
BWR,

Even the Chinese are giving up their bicycles. Do you only travel within a 10 mile radius?

Seems you can take the boy out of Cali but you can't take the Cali out of the boy. Just an expression - and no disrespect with the boy reference.

First you had smog, now low oxygen up in the Alps. Hey people say we have sun-baked brains here in S.Fla. Must be reason we don't know how to vote or count 'em.

Sun
  • #234
  • May 21, 2008 5:48pm May 21, 2008 5:48pm
Quoting SunTrader
I've got my number in (see post 212 above) and we are right in the zone $128.79 - $132.22
So much for my prediiction now that it is $2 above my zone.
  • #235
  • May 21, 2008 5:59pm May 21, 2008 5:59pm
Quoting SunTrader
BWR,

Even the Chinese are giving up their bicycles. Do you only travel within a 10 mile radius?
He's in Switzerland, for Christ sake. Beyond 10 miles he's in another country already. Can go by plane
  • #236
  • May 21, 2008 6:01pm May 21, 2008 6:01pm
Quoting Big Wave Rider
Man am I glad I ride my bicycle. I don't even own a car any more. But I would love to get one of these BMW Hydro's. Yes thats right Hydro.

Bye, Bye oil

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dk3Nioo8MGU
I'm with you BWR
Much of the needed infrastructure for H2 production is already in place. Fertilizer plants create H2 as part of the process for creating amonium nitrate.

Go ahead OPEC. Raise petro to $200/barrel.
  • #237
  • May 21, 2008 10:57pm May 21, 2008 10:57pm
Quoting cesarnc
He's in Switzerland, for Christ sake. Beyond 10 miles he's in another country already. Can go by plane
Yeah but {cough, cough} he might have to use {cough, cough} one of those mountain tunnels.
  • #238
  • May 22, 2008 2:17am May 22, 2008 2:17am
Quoting cesarnc
He's in Switzerland, for Christ sake. Beyond 10 miles he's in another country already. Can go by plane

True. Check me out in this years Tour de France, I'll be returning home from the bakery with a french loaf.


http://p3.focus.de/img/gen/9/6/HB96y...en_r_467xA.jpg
Just Trade It
  • #239
  • May 22, 2008 2:47am May 22, 2008 2:47am
Quoting Micro-MiniMe
I'm with you BWR
Much of the needed infrastructure for H2 production is already in place. Fertilizer plants create H2 as part of the process for creating amonium nitrate.

Go ahead OPEC. Raise petro to $200/barrel.
I read the Hydrogen Economy in hopes of looking for some insight on the future of H2 and any investment opps. Forget it. That book was about how past civilizations fell because of energy. Instead read The Hype about Hydrogen, Fact and Fiction in a race to save the climate by Joseph J. Romm. Excellent book, he points how we can use H2 now from natural gas and at the same time move our technologies to enable us to get H2 from renewables and the political process to make this happen as well. This is the book that deserves the H2 Economy title.



SunTraderBWR,

Even the Chinese are giving up their bicycles. Do you only travel within a 10 mile radius?

Seems you can take the boy out of Cali but you can't take the Cali out of the boy. Just an expression - and no disrespect with the boy reference.

First you had smog, now low oxygen up in the Alps. Hey people say we have sun-baked brains here in S.Fla. Must be reason we don't know how to vote or count 'em.

Sun


Now is a good time to buy a bike over there. Apparently there are over 9 million bicycles in Bejing, and thats a fact. Cali will forever be apart of me, I actually am looking at buying a beach crusier as my 10 speed gets too many flats and the narrow tires can fall into the tram tracks when your not paying attention (ouch) And my other city bike feels like a soccer mom mini van. (same style as the photo above, including the basket) I need something with style for the ladies. Something like this bike here.

http://www.chopper-fahrrad.com/Bilder/beachcruiser.jpg
Just Trade It
  • #240
  • Edited 4:43am May 22, 2008 4:22am | Edited 4:43am
Good on you, mate. Bicycles are the most efficient form of transportation in the world. I suggest some fenders/splash guards for that bike though, or the ladies won't be impressed.

Thanks for recommending the book.
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