I see oil reaching 100 USD?!

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OPEC president sees $200 oil possible: report

Mon Apr 28, 2008 5:59am EDT
ALGIERS (Reuters) - OPEC President Chakib Khelil does not rule out oil prices reaching $200 a barrel, even though supply is adequate, because the market is driven by the dollar's slide, Algerian government newspaper El Moudjahid reported on Monday.
"Questioned about a possible rise which would go to $200, the minister did not rule out this eventuality, explaining that this rise is indexed from now on to the fall in the dollar or to the rise in the dollar," El Moudjahid reported.
"In terms of fundamentals, stocks are high, demand is easing, supply is satisfactory. Therefore normally, without geo-political problems and the fall of the dollar, the prices of oil would not be at this level," he was quoted as saying.
Khelil, a former World Bank official, is also Algeria's Minister of Energy and Mines.
He added: "The prices are high due to the fact of the recession in the United Sattes and the economic crisis which has touched several countries, a situation which has an effect on the devaluation of the dollar, and therefore each time the dollar falls one percent, the price of the barrel rises by $4, and of course vice versa," he was quoted as saying in brief remarks to journalists on Sunday.
He added that: "If this (the dollar) strengthens by 10 percent, it is probable that (oil) prices will fall by 40 percent."
If the U.S. economic situation improved from now to the end of the year "that would help the market to stabilize."
"But I don't think that an increase in production would help lower prices, because there is a balance between supply and demand and the stocks of gasoline in the United States have recorded a surplus and are at their highest level for five years."
The independent El Watan newspaper reported Khelil as saying that if the dollar's value on currency markets stayed as it was at present, then oil prices would be expected to remain at between $80 and $110 a barrel.
(Reporting by William Maclean; editing by James Jukwey)

I think its time to rename this thread

I've been thinking that for quite a long time now... !!

Brazilian oil fields fraught with difficulty:

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...cf4&refer=home

So were Alaska and the North Sea but everything pales in comparision to dealing with Chavez these days.

Maybe they'll use Chavez's head as the drill bit. I think he's actually doing America a favour by being such an idiot. By driving the Venezuelan economy into ruin, despite high oil prices I might add, he is setting the stage for American domination of Venezuela - the very thing he is trying to avoid - so as an American, you should be cheering him on. Instead of bashing him for the vile things he says about your country, just sit back with a smirk on your face, happy in the knowledge that his time is limited.

Chavez is an idiot and is driving Venezuela's economy into ruin but I think America's day of dominating are behind us.

China will be our equal someday and maybe even surpass us. Then who will be dominated - like Tibet is these days? Maybe some countries in that part of the world. Hey where are you located?

As long as I'm in "Mr. Rogers' Neighbourhood" (Jim Rogers, that is) I don't think I'll worry too much. Most serious businesses here are actually run by ethnic Chinese, so further domination by China might not be such a bad deal. As long as they leave me in peace, I won't complain. If they don't, then I'll leave. I hear the Venezuelan coast is nice .

i cant believe OPEC has allowed the price of oil to go this high

they are either too stupid to realize this hurts them in the long run (not likely) or they simply can not make a dent in the longs (possibly). SOMETHING has got to give here, things have gotten out of freakin control! LOL

This is ridiculous. Just looked at the chart when I got up. First thing I thought of was to post in here using the same smiley. LOL

What's worse, is it de-coupling itself from the usual currencies.

I think this is the case.

And Oil being the inverse of the US$ think it has got more upside to go. Right now per my fib calcs we are right in a zone $121.50-$125.60 for possible high. Although I think more likely the next zone $128.79-$132.22 will be a possible top. Unless god saves us all it "just keeps going and going".

really outrageus, i think it was the myanmar main fundy reason for latest rise,....but oil must peak in month to come if no tornados in usa...since truckers demand for oil usualy diminish in august (ok. holiday travelers might get some back), i expect it to topped it in the start of that month for the year 08....

US Dept of Energy projects gasoline will top at $3.73/gallon in June.
Maybe.

It's hard to watch everything. I missed this level (weekly R1) telling me a top, even if it is shortterm, was coming soon. Damn.

I concurr, 8/8/08 will be a node of interest. I expect a new theme altogether by then. Stabilisation of the second phase of the unwinding perhaps.
21st may looks good for that to commence......maybe. Until then I am playing this market like everyone else, close to my chest.

Well although Hurricane Season starts June 1st, there are almost never any real storms of any consequences till mid / end August or later.

That won't stop the news media / weather services from dramatically playing up any little weather disturbances.

Now I do read news reports regarding supply and demand factors like the following:


Gas jumps above $3.67, oil passes $126 on Venezuela concerns

By JOHN WILEN, AP Business Writer Sat May 10, 7:02 AM ET

Oil rose above $126 a barrel for the first time Friday, bringing its advance this week to nearly $10, as investors questioned whether a possible confrontation between the U.S. and Venezuela could cut exports from the OPEC member. Gas prices, meanwhile, rose above an average $3.67 a gallon at the pump, following oil's recent path higher.

On Friday, The Wall Street Journal published a report that suggested closer ties between Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez and rebels attempting to overthrow Colombia's government. Chavez has been linked to Colombian rebels previously, but the paper reported it had reviewed computer files indicating concrete offers by Venezuela's leader to arm guerillas. That appears to heighten the chances that the U.S. could impose sanctions on one of its biggest oil suppliers.

"If we put on sanctions, I'm sure Chavez would threaten to cut off our oil supply," said Phil Flynn, an analyst at Alaron Trading Corp. "Obviously that would have a major impact on oil prices."

Light, sweet crude for June delivery vaulted to a new record of $126.25 on the New York Mercantile Exchange before retreating slightly to settle up $2.27 at a record $125.96. Oil futures set new records for the fifth straight day, and ended the week up $9.64, or 8.3 percent.

Even if Chavez cut oil shipments to the U.S., Venezuelan oil would still make its way to the U.S. via middle men, who would buy it from Venezuela and resell it to the U.S., Flynn said. But that new layer in the supply chain would bump up costs.

Oil prices also were boosted Friday by the dollar, which declined against the euro. The European Central Bank said it was unlikely to consider interest rate cuts to cool the strong euro against the slumping dollar. Investors often buy commodities such as oil as a hedge against inflation when the greenback falls. A weaker dollar also makes oil less expensive to overseas investors.

Many analysts believe the dollar's protracted decline has much to do with the doubling in oil prices since this time last year. Another school of thought thinks tight global supplies of oil, driven by growing demand in countries such as China, Brazil and India, is the primary factor driving oil higher.

Oil's surge is pushing retail gas prices higher. The national average price of a gallon of regular gas jumped 2.6 cents overnight to a record $3.671 a gallon according to a survey of stations by AAA and the Oil Price Information Service. The Energy Department expects prices to peak at a monthly average of $3.73 in June, though many analysts say national average prices could rise as high as $4. Consumers in many regions, including parts of California and Hawaii, are already paying that much.

Demand for diesel fuel is also growing worldwide, but supplies of distillates, which include diesel and heating oil, fell unexpectedly last week, the Energy Department said Wednesday. That's pushing U.S. diesel prices to record highs and inflating heating oil prices in the futures market; heating oil futures are often viewed as a proxy for diesel.

Heating oil for June delivery rose 12.62 cents to settle at $3.636 on the Nymex after earlier setting a trading record of $3.6524. At truck stops, retail diesel prices rose 1.8 cents overnight to a record national average of $4.269 a gallon,

Diesel is used to move most of the world's food, consumer and industrial goods via truck, ship and rail. Skyrocketing diesel prices are part of the reason food and consumer goods prices are so high.

In other Nymex trading Friday, June gasoline futures rose 6.34 cents to settle at a record $3.2012 a gallon after rising to its own record of $3.2038, and June natural gas futures rose 27.4 cents to settle at $11.537 per 1,000 cubic feet.

In London, June Brent crude futures rose $2.56 to settle at $125.40 a barrel on the ICE Futures Exchange.

Time to short....

Merlin, are you with me on this one? I am shorting OIL right away at $124, at least for a quick gain of $10-$15 at least...

One of my main triggers is the Egyptian Government...They raise gasoline prices just before every major correction in oil....

Btw, I already shorted the previous top at $119 and covered at $111...I have had targets below this, but thank GOD my stop loss was moved to breakeven immediately...


Thanks,

Nader

Remember, this is what we were talking about earlier, that OPEC can't control the oil price anyway, even if they have the supply side of the equation only...

You see OPEC does know their production capactiy and they can't short oil in the future market because they know that they can't deliver...Now, the last rally in oil was due to demand and not due to a fall in the USD..Actually, the USD was going higher during the previous oil rally...This is why I believe that this will trigger funds liquidation and a big sell off in oil futures...

It is always like this...When OPEC was trying to defend the price of oil at the early $70s and $80s, the market sold off and then the trend persisted and oil continued higher...Now that the OPEC idiots already secured their next 12-18 months production at ridiculous prices at $70s and $80s, they have nothing to do with oil at $120s...All what they have to say is to stimulate the market to go higher so that they can secure their future production (after 12 months) at higher prices...And of course, the market has nothing to do but go down


Thanks,

Nader