History is written by the victors.
- #242
- Edited 11:21pm May 20, 2008 10:54pm | Edited 11:21pm
- Joined Apr 2006 | Status: Trader | 1,459 Posts
Ok, my short GJ position got knocked out after I got concerned and moved my S/L into profit.
This is a good thing because before I would have let the position run further and allow my S/L to get knocked out in the red. No one ever got broke taking a....you know what. Thanks IronMan, you really are a hero
Now I'd like to share the lesson I learned on this trade:
I was hoping for the big move down here and I started trading what I wished to see and not what I actually saw, because the reversal anounced itself with the 1H pin bars at S/R level and thats were I should have exited.
If I had taken in a bit more of what Billy Ray does I would have gotten out there, IRRESPECTIVE of the possibility that price might go further down now as I am writing this.
Why?
BECAUSE NOT EXITING AT THIS POINT
WAS TO GAMBLE & HOPE AND NOT TRADE.
Gambling is the opposite of a No Brainer.
(Damn, thats what people always meant when they said: "Trade what you see, not what you want to see)
I took a total 120 pip profit with a total 160 pip risk (initial S/Ls were at 204.95) instead of taking a 240 pip profit.
Do this a couple of times and add a few losers (YES, that does happen) to the equation and your profit would be 3-4 times smaller over the course of just 10 trades.
Thanks for you grand work Billy Ray
This is a good thing because before I would have let the position run further and allow my S/L to get knocked out in the red. No one ever got broke taking a....you know what. Thanks IronMan, you really are a hero
Now I'd like to share the lesson I learned on this trade:
I was hoping for the big move down here and I started trading what I wished to see and not what I actually saw, because the reversal anounced itself with the 1H pin bars at S/R level and thats were I should have exited.
If I had taken in a bit more of what Billy Ray does I would have gotten out there, IRRESPECTIVE of the possibility that price might go further down now as I am writing this.
Why?
BECAUSE NOT EXITING AT THIS POINT
WAS TO GAMBLE & HOPE AND NOT TRADE.
Gambling is the opposite of a No Brainer.
(Damn, thats what people always meant when they said: "Trade what you see, not what you want to see)
I took a total 120 pip profit with a total 160 pip risk (initial S/Ls were at 204.95) instead of taking a 240 pip profit.
Do this a couple of times and add a few losers (YES, that does happen) to the equation and your profit would be 3-4 times smaller over the course of just 10 trades.
Thanks for you grand work Billy Ray
Be like a post stamp! Stick to it until you get there!
- #246
- Edited 6:09am May 21, 2008 5:30am | Edited 6:09am
- Joined Apr 2006 | Status: Trader | 1,459 Posts
Ok, my short GJ position got knocked out after I got concerned and moved my S/L into profit.
This is a good thing because before I would have let the position run further and allow my S/L to get knocked out in the red. No one ever got broke taking a....you know what. Thanks IronMan, you really are a hero
Now I'd like to share the lesson I learned on this trade:
I was hoping for the big move down here and I started trading what I wished to see and not what I actually saw, because the reversal anounced itself with the 1H pin bars at S/R level and thats were I should have exited.
If I had taken in a bit more of what Billy Ray does I would have gotten out there, IRRESPECTIVE of the possibility that price might go further down now as I am writing this.
Why?
BECAUSE NOT EXITING AT THIS POINT
WAS TO GAMBLE & HOPE AND NOT TRADE.
Gambling is the opposite of a No Brainer.
(Damn, thats what people always meant when they said: "Trade what you see, not what you want to see)
I took a total 120 pip profit with a total 160 pip risk (initial S/Ls were at 204.95) instead of taking a 240 pip profit.
Do this a couple of times and add a few losers (YES, that does happen) to the equation and your profit would be 3-4 times smaller over the course of just 10 trades.
Thanks for you grand work Billy Ray
. Hence the experience!
Not a shabby trade MP! oh well, what's a hundred pips
and experience is not for free.Btw: Experience is a funny thing, it seems much more fun acquiring it than having it.
(sigh) Once I become a succesful trader and a bit of a oversaturated blob, I'd candidly think back of days like the one today. lol
The GJ got me today and entered a new short position. Explained a few things on the pic attached.
It's probably not a pure No Brainer, but given the downward momentum this pair has at present fundamentally and the bearish indications that Read on the higher TFs (my standard set up on any pair has Weekly, D1, 4H & 1H Tfs)
make this a decent entry opportunity, because once this pair should break below 202.50 it's bound to go down into the 201/200 area as there would be the next historic S/R level.
There's not much reason why it should go up, though I gotta say that I'm taking this trade on the cautious side with a smaller position and a 50 pip S/L (quite small for GJ) because the 202.50 has been penetrated before.
"Will it resist this time ? Only time can tell !" [somber, semi-dangerous music in background]
Be like a post stamp! Stick to it until you get there!
- #256
- May 21, 2008 4:21pm May 21, 2008 4:21pm
Ok, my short GJ position got knocked out after I got concerned and moved my S/L into profit.
This is a good thing because before I would have let the position run further and allow my S/L to get knocked out in the red. No one ever got broke taking a....you know what. Thanks IronMan, you really are a hero
Now I'd like to share the lesson I learned on this trade:
I was hoping for the big move down here and I started trading what I wished to see and not what I actually saw, because the reversal anounced itself with the 1H pin bars at S/R level and thats were I should have exited.
If I had taken in a bit more of what Billy Ray does I would have gotten out there, IRRESPECTIVE of the possibility that price might go further down now as I am writing this.
Why?
BECAUSE NOT EXITING AT THIS POINT
WAS TO GAMBLE & HOPE AND NOT TRADE.
Gambling is the opposite of a No Brainer.
(Damn, thats what people always meant when they said: "Trade what you see, not what you want to see)
I took a total 120 pip profit with a total 160 pip risk (initial S/Ls were at 204.95) instead of taking a 240 pip profit.
Do this a couple of times and add a few losers (YES, that does happen) to the equation and your profit would be 3-4 times smaller over the course of just 10 trades.
Thanks for you grand work Billy Ray
Congratulations Mary! And don't worry, we all struggle with seeing what we want to see. (I keep waiting for the AUD/USD to sell off) Time wasted on my part, since there are plenty other set ups to trade.
Also, Mary, you have another excellent point here. Control the size of losing trades. It makes them almost as good as winners. (I say almost because you can go broke taking a loss, LOL!) If your losing trades are one third to one half the size of your winning trades then you will be profitable at a 40% winning percentage.
Ex. 100 trades (Average winning trade 60 pips X 40 trades = 2,400 pips) - (Average losing trades 30 pips x 60 trades = 1,800 pips) Total net pips = +600
or
Ex. 100 trades (Average winning trade 60 pips X 40 trades = 2,400 pips) - (Average losing trades 20 pips x 60 trades = 1,200 pips) total net pips = +1,200
Elementary, I know, but we often forget these things in the heat of battle. It is something worth tracking in a note book or on a spreadsheet because it is the first step in consistency. (that whole crawl, then walk thing.)
And of course, once anyone is steady at that level there's no law against refining and improving our winning percentage. Consistency is the key.
Keep up the good work, Mary!
Energy and persistence conquer all things! Ben Franklin
- #259
- May 21, 2008 10:39pm May 21, 2008 10:39pm
I spotted a long-term no-brainer on EUR/CHF (can't guarantee that "90% accuracy", though 
), but it looks pretty solid.
Here is my analysis in the news section:
http://www.forexfactory.com/news.php?do=news&id=87775
), but it looks pretty solid.Here is my analysis in the news section:
http://www.forexfactory.com/news.php?do=news&id=87775
"Luxury is one of the basic needs", (c), Don Corleone
- #260
- Edited May 22, 2008 12:16am May 21, 2008 11:11pm | Edited May 22, 2008 12:16am
- Joined Apr 2006 | Status: Trader | 1,459 Posts
Long USD/JPY 102.74 to 102.60
IF JPY can break past current support of 103.13, this is the next area to be looking at. You can see from the chart its been a painful zone for price on numerous occassions; many traders/banks are going to have their eyes on it.
+42 pips so far. Nailed 102.73 (only 1 pip dd, again) Do you guys believe me yet?!