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4 Hour Strategy (MACD)

  • #14,941
  • May 19, 2008 2:08pm May 19, 2008 2:08pm
Thank you all, I apperciate! I'll think about another platform.

Welcome back vette . I know how it's hard to get in tune after a break. Take your time, with Phillip around we grow everyday.
  • #14,942
  • May 19, 2008 2:14pm May 19, 2008 2:14pm
dear ira/others
english is not my mother tongue and maybe not yours either,so maybe we sometimes just try to find a sentece to transfer our meanings.just filter the parts wich u think they are not (maybe)polite and focous on the concept.i have no bad purpose in my posts and just im trying to say my ideas.
regards
  • #14,943
  • May 19, 2008 5:26pm May 19, 2008 5:26pm
Here is my vision of the market.

Recently there was the lower high and break out of 21MA and TL.
Market rhythm is in place.

I'm waiting for retrace UP to the 21MA and then TC down.
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  • #14,944
  • May 19, 2008 10:52pm May 19, 2008 10:52pm
I am noticing some are trading short term timeframes - I on the other hand have started planning trades mainly from the daily chart because I am no longer able to sit in front of the PC - nor do I want to in the future.

I have also simpflied my trading based on my experience with price the past many months.

Entry based on trendline, 62% fib, daily price movement.

I have taken 50% near 1.5540 because that area was fairly significant recently and price may head back down from here and even retest yesterday's low.

If price can work its way above 5600 and stay there we could see an attempt at 5700 over the next few days.

Let see how price plays out ......
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  • #14,945
  • May 20, 2008 12:25am May 20, 2008 12:25am
My GBP looking similar to yesterdays, and Euro adjusted slightly, but otherwise similar also.
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  • #14,946
  • Edited 2:10am May 20, 2008 1:28am | Edited 2:10am
I bought 4 lots long at or above the daily pivot, sold for +40.
  • #14,947
  • May 20, 2008 1:37am May 20, 2008 1:37am
Some more statistics for those who might be interested (setups 17/03/08 – 13/05/08):
- distribution of setups by time of signal bar opening (GMT+1);
- statistics for TCs - updated;
- table of comparison of differen setups.
Attached File(s)
File Type: pdf TimeOfSetups.pdf   19 KB | 987 downloads
File Type: pdf EURO_Stats_TC (4subtypes of TCs).pdf   33 KB | 1,241 downloads
File Type: pdf SetupsComparison.pdf   26 KB | 1,023 downloads
  • #14,948
  • May 20, 2008 1:40am May 20, 2008 1:40am
And one more calculation for different variants of closing the position (based on my statistical results).
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #14,949
  • May 20, 2008 1:55am May 20, 2008 1:55am
You're the man Yorik!
  • #14,950
  • May 20, 2008 1:56am May 20, 2008 1:56am
Quoting Yorik
Some more statistics for those who might be interested (setups 17/03/08 – 13/05/08):
- distribution of setups by time of signal bar opening (GMT+1);
- statistics for TCs - updated;
- table of comparison of differen setups.
Lovely stuff and food for thought. Thanks for your efforts Yorik, its alot of work to do.
  • #14,951
  • May 20, 2008 2:02am May 20, 2008 2:02am
E/U has broken the hourly trend line and is forming a TC on the 4H with 1H to go on my platform. The candle is massive though and this pulled back further than I thought and comes off the 89 making the stop even bigger.

So I am looking for a pull back to the hourly trend line which should now act as support for a chance to long.
  • #14,952
  • May 20, 2008 2:45am May 20, 2008 2:45am
Quoting brettboz
E/U has broken the hourly trend line and is forming a TC on the 4H with 1H to go on my platform. The candle is massive though and this pulled back further than I thought and comes off the 89 making the stop even bigger.

So I am looking for a pull back to the hourly trend line which should now act as support for a chance to long.
Looking into this even more, even if we took the 21 as our base for support and we took the early 1H entry the stop was still too big. This really has moved quite strongly and before London open too, which as I said a few weeks ago seems to happen more since DST has changed.
  • #14,953
  • May 20, 2008 2:48am May 20, 2008 2:48am
Quoting Yorik
And one more calculation for different variants of closing the position (based on my statistical results).
Excellent Yorik. And I aslo want you to post some simple conclusion that even newbie can understand what its meaning is without statastics. Anyway you are the one who most understand what the data meaning and can write most correct conculsion which is the target of the analysis and the tutorial
Plan your trades and trade your plans
  • #14,954
  • May 20, 2008 2:57am May 20, 2008 2:57am
Have been successfully demoing your strategy, successful indeed
I have also suggested your strategy to few more FX trading beginners.
many thanks for sharing.

Keep piping and show us the way......
  • #14,955
  • May 20, 2008 3:44am May 20, 2008 3:44am
Euro; Good exit for those trading this. I was out way way earlier because i had 4 lots.
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  • #14,956
  • May 20, 2008 3:47am May 20, 2008 3:47am
Quoting napeharm
Euro; Good exit for those trading this. I was out way way earlier because i had 4 lots.
what is your entry signal, I can "feel" the market is up, but I wait for TC, and it was too late.
Thanks
  • #14,957
  • May 20, 2008 4:11am May 20, 2008 4:11am
Quoting saka
Excellent Yorik. And I aslo want you to post some simple conclusion that even newbie can understand what its meaning is without statastics. Anyway you are the one who most understand what the data meaning and can write most correct conculsion which is the target of the analysis and the tutorial
Sure. So, the general idea is that market as any field of human activity is very contradictory and trading is very often a search of a compromis. It'a a matter of common knowledge that the closer the target - the higher the probability of reaching it and vice versa. Tight stoploss or trailing-stop may save from many losses but on the other hand is likely to "cut" some big profits (that may be "feeding" all the month). Situation becomes more complicated because the size of profit and probability of hitting it are not always connected linearly ("the more - the less"). So it's usually only practice and statistics that may give approximate answer which proportion can bring the best result.

So that was lirics, sorry if long. As for the results. I took a number of trades (really not so many to be sure in the results even for 95% but something is in the end better than nothing). Calculations on TCs showed that my TP1 was about 22 pips on average and TP2 was about 72 pips. TP1 was hit in almost 90% of setups. After hitting TP1 price retraced to opening level 7 times out of 9 profitable and 2 times of 9 it hit TP2. TP2 could be hit one more time out of 9 if at TP1 SL was moved not to BE but to BE-TP1 price (but then in more trades 2nd part of the position also hit BE-TP1 and those trades would give 0 result). 10% of trades didn't reach TP1 and hit SL which was about 42 pips on average.

With these numbers we can model several possible closing strategies:
V1. For both halves of a trade we assign TP at TP1 - so we get 9*(0.5*22+0.5*22) pips profit and 1*(0.5*(-42)+0.5*(-42)) pips loss resulting in 156 pips;
V2. First half is closed TP1 and another is left for TP2 with SL moved to BE. In this case we get 1 loss on both halves of -42 pips (or -42 pips/lot), 9 times 22-pips-profit at the 1st half, and the second half is closed at BE 7 times (7*0.5*0) and 2 times reaches TP2 (2*0.5*72). So we get 131 pips in the end and so on.

From the final comparing chart one can see that final profit was the biggest if we looked for TP1 with both halves of a lot, the variant of closing a half at TP1 and another - at TP2 with its SL moved to BE at TP1 was a bit lower. But that also may mean that I'm not so good at defining TP2 level and that's why it's hit not so often as I wish. Looking for big profits - all position is closed at TP2 but moved to BE after TP1 was the 3rd by final result (but would you like to have 7 BEs out of 10 and only 2 profits?). Giving the trade even more chances to reach TP2 by moving SL to BE-TP1 level at TP1 and letting the whole lot run to TP2 gave the worst result.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #14,958
  • May 20, 2008 4:21am May 20, 2008 4:21am
Quoting Yorik
Sure. So, the general idea is that market as any field of human activity is very contradictory and trading is very often a search of a compromis. It'a a matter of common knowledge that the closer the target - the higher the probability of reaching it and vice versa. Tight stoploss or trailing-stop may save from many losses but on the other hand is likely to "cut" some big profits (that may be "feeding" all the month). Situation becomes more complicated because the size of profit and probability of hitting it are not always connected linearly ("the more - the less"). So it's usually only practice and statistics that may give approximate answer which proportion can bring the best result.

So that was lirics, sorry if long. As for the results. I took a number of trades (really not so many to be sure in the results even for 95% but something is in the end better than nothing). Calculations on TCs showed that my TP1 was about 22 pips on average and TP2 was about 72 pips. TP1 was hit in almost 90% of setups. After hitting TP1 price retraced to opening level 7 times out of 9 profitable and 2 times of 9 it hit TP2. TP2 could be hit one more time out of 9 if at TP1 SL was moved not to BE but to BE-TP1 price (but then in more trades 2nd part of the position also hit BE-TP1 and those trades would give 0 result). 10% of trades didn't reach TP1 and hit SL which was about 42 pips on average.

With these numbers we can model several possible closing strategies:
V1. For both halves of a trade we assign TP at TP1 - so we get 9*(0.5*22+0.5*22) pips profit and 1*(0.5*(-42)+0.5*(-42)) pips loss resulting in 156 pips;
V2. First half is closed TP1 and another is left for TP2 with SL moved to BE. In this case we get 1 loss on both halves of -42 pips (or -42 pips/lot), 9 times 22-pips-profit at the 1st half, and the second half is closed at BE 7 times (7*0.5*0) and 2 times reaches TP2 (2*0.5*72). So we get 131 pips in the end and so on.

From the final comparing chart one can see that final profit was the biggest if we looked for TP1 with both halves of a lot, the variant of closing a half at TP1 and another - at TP2 with its SL moved to BE at TP1 was a bit lower. But that also may mean that I'm not so good at defining TP2 level and that's why it's hit not so often as I wish. Looking for big profits - all position is closed at TP2 but moved to BE after TP1 was the 3rd by final result (but would you like to have 7 BEs out of 10 and only 2 profits?). Giving the trade even more chances to reach TP2 by moving SL to BE-TP1 level at TP1 and letting the whole lot run to TP2 gave the worst result.
Hi Yorik,

I would like to complicate it further by commenting on the possibility of having proportional trades using platforms like Oanda. Here we can open a trade size we want and close a % we want.

So its possible we open the initial trade say 100000 units and then close a good % and first TP say 90%. Leaving us 10000 of the trade to keep running.

Now I am wondering whether there is a % value between 50-100 which works out more profitable this way or whether it always works out more profitable 100% on first TP.

If I get time I will try to run the numbers but this week I am so piled up at work I may not get time.
  • #14,959
  • May 20, 2008 4:26am May 20, 2008 4:26am
Quoting scarlet
what is your entry signal, I can "feel" the market is up, but I wait for TC, and it was too late.
Thanks
I was using a 5 min. chart. Unfortunately my computer crashed just before the close of the 8am candle, and so when it re opened i saw the 5 min trade and took it from there, daily pivot, exiting just above the 50% retrace from yesterday.
  • #14,960
  • May 20, 2008 4:30am May 20, 2008 4:30am
Quoting brettboz
E/U has broken the hourly trend line and is forming a TC on the 4H with 1H to go on my platform. The candle is massive though and this pulled back further than I thought and comes off the 89 making the stop even bigger.

So I am looking for a pull back to the hourly trend line which should now act as support for a chance to long.
This is moving quick today, it pulled back on the 15min but has shot up again so quick that it doesnt even give 15 min trade ops.

There has been a 5 min retrace which could have theoretically been used but there was also a pullback to the 21 on the 5 min followed by a TC which would have stung anyone taking it as it then dropped right down.
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