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  • #221
  • May 19, 2008 8:22pm May 19, 2008 8:22pm
Quoting BillyRayValentine
Thanks, Its really on a case by case scenario, and changes as the market changes. Ironman has a good post above this about it. In the way of CAD today, the trend is overextended and ready for a considerable retracement. I bought some lower and when I got to breakeven took off a little exposure and pocketed some $. It might yet still go lower, but I base my profit-taking scheme one at a time. CAD I'm looking for more, so I'm not ready to go off the wagon on that one just yet. My spreads are high today, indicating a stalled market, so I'm going to wait the rest out. But that's just me.

The way the market was behaving Friday to today, though, I showed some hesitation on hopping on anything with big size.

USDJPY the other day was in a super-fast market, so if price was going to pop, it was going to run hard, but that never happened. Just the nature of the day. Trade was only good for +20. Dollar got annihilated.

The NZD trade last night was a little flukey, so I made sure to take some at +40 and see if I caught the run. It went higher so I went for another sell at the higher level posted earlier. Took some profit on that at +40 and trying to get a decent move on the rest.

I dont generally use static stop losses and take profits, thats why I dont post them here.

The market is constantly evolving, and based on what I am looking for and what I believe will happen and within the boundaries or risk tolerance I will adjust them all accordingly. Every day is different, and experience alone can get you used to that.

But the trades provided everyone in this forum so far have been excellent. Every trade has been a winner by atleast +20 pips, some considerably larger, with the exception of 1/2 of the AUD trade (which only went against you about 20 - 25 pips and offered a chance to get out without losing a dime, all within 1/2 hour). So we'll keep the ball rolling. Continuing to see new users pop in and posting great stuff. We have a better winrate this past week then 99% of all hedge funds, so sh%#, lets keep on doing it .
Do you see AUDUSD going higher yet? It seems to have gotten so overbought that it just has to come down. But I don't know. Would like to hear your opinion. Thanks.
Expected the unexpected
  • #222
  • May 19, 2008 8:34pm May 19, 2008 8:34pm
Quoting scyang
Do you see AUDUSD going higher yet? It seems to have gotten so overbought that it just has to come down. But I don't know. Would like to hear your opinion. Thanks.
my personal opinion on the audusd, as you can see it got stuck on its resistance (25 yr high) and its on the temporary pullback, it also depends on the USD economy, but eventually it will go up
  • #223
  • May 19, 2008 8:36pm May 19, 2008 8:36pm
and by the way, if anyone doesnt like this thread, dont stop here, personally, i like the idea of people helping out each other....people helped me out when i started out....(if your a noob, ask before placing a trade your not so sure about, its ok to make mistakes....)
  • #224
  • May 19, 2008 8:41pm May 19, 2008 8:41pm
Quoting inforthepips

I am a fairly new trader and in search of as much knowledge as possible.

You say that and then you say you want NB set-ups. I suppose explaining the difference between SMA's and WMA's didn't increase your knowledge since your response was "huh". Everything that is posted in this thread is for the benefit of you, the trader. It cost's you nothing to be here and participate and gleen from the knowledge of other traders. Billy Ray, Cisco and myself have all posted trades that were winners if they were executed properly. An experienced trader can take a trade and bank pips and a novice trader can take THE SAME trade and lose money.

So in our spare time we try to share from our experiences so that our winning trades are your winning trades. As Danny Divito said, "In "The War of the Roses", "...when a man who makes 450 dollars an hours speaks you should listen" or subscribe to a signal service. Either way, what you see is what you get.
Energy and persistence conquer all things! Ben Franklin
  • #225
  • May 19, 2008 8:48pm May 19, 2008 8:48pm
Quoting scyang
Do you see AUDUSD going higher yet? It seems to have gotten so overbought that it just has to come down. But I don't know. Would like to hear your opinion. Thanks.
Yeah I eventually see it coming down from those highs for a little relaxation, but now you've got some news out that just pushed it even higher. Good sell on it today though in general. Its going to need a good shove before the buying wears off though. But eventually higher in the bigger picture.
  • #226
  • May 19, 2008 8:50pm May 19, 2008 8:50pm
Quoting Iron-man
An experienced trader can take a trade and bank pips and a novice trader can take THE SAME trade and lose money.
good point
  • #227
  • May 19, 2008 10:21pm May 19, 2008 10:21pm
  •  Dec1pher
  • | Joined Oct 2007 | Status: Deciphering the markets in realtime | 7 Posts
Quoting Iron-man
An experienced trader can take a trade and bank pips and a novice trader can take THE SAME trade and lose money.
This is very true! Experience increases skill in any endeavor.
  • #228
  • May 20, 2008 3:14am May 20, 2008 3:14am
Quoting Iron-man
Because no one ever went broke taking a .... anyone? anyone? ...a profit! That's right.

LOL !!!
Be like a post stamp! Stick to it until you get there!
  • #229
  • May 20, 2008 3:55am May 20, 2008 3:55am
Thanks for the input. I'm actually looking atr both of those CAD pairs again right now. USDCAD is entering the ADSR on the 1H, and EURCAD is entering on the 4H. I'll post trades if they bounce as expected and confirm short movement.

Regards,
C

Quoting Iron-man
Moving averages are some of the few indicators out there that have any value. In the end they are still bringing our attention to S & R areas. And of course as you pointed out they can be dynamic points of support and resistance themselves. MA crossovers? Forget about it. Way too far behind the curve to be anything more than confirmation or a good exit point.

As I was reviewing your system I noticed one thing that might tweek your edge. Try changing your SMA's to WMA's. Simple moving averages are the slowest responders to price action and weighted moving averages are the fastest. All of the bank commentary I get these days shows professional traders using WMA's. The stuff brokers put out to their clients show SMA's. Hmmm. The other thing I would suggest is try adding a 800wma. In days of old the 800 SMA was considered the balance line and the 800 Wma can still help in determining swing as well as price targets.

Just a few thoughts. Test them and see what you think.

Good trading and keep up the good work. Usd/Cad was a NB sell trade for sure. Eur/Cad was an even better sell. I'm keeping one eye on the Aussie. The longer it stays around .9530 the more I'm looking for a fall. We'll see.
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  • #230
  • May 20, 2008 4:06am May 20, 2008 4:06am
IF the current 15 minute candle closes below 1.5495, I will be entering a short on that pair based on a bounce from the ADSR in a long standing down trend. This one, if it can break out below 1.5400 can run for a long way. Maybe down to 1.5200!


Quoting ciscoguy
Thanks for the input. I'm actually looking atr both of those CAD pairs again right now. USDCAD is entering the ADSR on the 1H, and EURCAD is entering on the 4H. I'll post trades if they bounce as expected and confirm short movement.

Regards,
C
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #231
  • Edited 8:27am May 20, 2008 6:41am | Edited 8:27am
Back in March of 1984, something happened. AUD made a high before a serious decline which hasn't been seen until now (really thought this was going somewhere didnt you). I'm expecting a reaction off this level at .9648, if AUD can crawl its way up there, which I think it eventually will.

Ironman sent me some sell side research and they are seeing resistance at .9670. Now I swear for the life of me I combed through charts and can't figure out where they got this number, because the next level I see with any significance is 1.9700. Maybe one of you could figure it out.

I dont have access to daily data back this far right now (switching from Bloomberg this week) but I should by early next week, so it might be hard for me to make a decisive call on this without sufficient information. Regardless, from the weekly charts, this area stuck pretty hard and might be worth investigating. Any thoughts please let me know.

Here's the chart from way back when on the luxurious metatrader platform:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #232
  • Edited 6:09pm May 20, 2008 7:02am | Edited 6:09pm
Not seeing anything huge in the immediate path for today. The majors have entered into an area of back and forth consolidation and I'm waiting for a breakout of some sort before calling anything out.

EUR/JPY is back to 163.00 and was good for another +35 or so pip fade (posted earlier in thread). *edit* still hanging in there....went for another shot at +96 pips

USD/CHF has a good buy at 1.0314 - 1.0300 if it can get down there

GBP/USD might see some selling pressure at 1.9688, which isnt that far away. Due to its current "stalling" state however, not sure if it will last for long. If it goes lower then heads up again you have a better shot of getting more pips.

EUR/USD should also see some selling pressure around 1.5700

USD/JPY I'm not too exited about. Dont see anything remarkable in its path.

AUD/USD is in the previous post, though immediate short term (and I mean immediate) I'm fading that high at around .9615...dont know how long it will last

USD/CAD, if it goes any lower, should be a good buy again at .9874; I'm still hanging in there on this one, adding little bits as I go along

PPI out this morning. Just a heads up. Dont fade this stuff on a news spike.....give the market time to cool. If I have enough conviction at the time of any these I'll "make it official" so we can track it, but thats it for now.
  • #233
  • May 20, 2008 8:17am May 20, 2008 8:17am
Played the News live this morning on GPBUSD. It went the wrong way!! Another release that is in my bad books. Watching to see if their is a reversal south here.
  • #234
  • May 20, 2008 9:10am May 20, 2008 9:10am
Quoting LarryR
Played the News live this morning on GPBUSD. It went the wrong way!! Another release that is in my bad books. Watching to see if their is a reversal south here.

I just don't trade the news as I and don't believe in them. News are not the stuff that will make up a "No Brainer" for me.

Went short on the GJ after a pin bar on the H4 TF at significant level (204.00) and aim for 100 pips 203 level, possibly more. S/L @ 204.98
Though GJ is, as so often, very rocky at present.

Sorry not able to post a pic right now, but promise that I'll do it every time I can.
Be like a post stamp! Stick to it until you get there!
  • #235
  • Edited 4:34pm May 20, 2008 1:32pm | Edited 4:34pm
Here's the pic as promised.

Just got home after battling for over 2 hours through the traffic.
What a way to spend one's lifetime and a good reminder why, apart from enjoying FX, it would be a good thing if I get my trading up to speed.

I consider this level to be a significant S/R level and shorted after a H4 candle got rejected and formed a pin. Possibly the location of the pin could have been better, as in after a long move in one direction, but hitting the this S/R like that was good enough for me.

After I entered price moved up and I actually took out another short position with the same S/L level and much smaller therefore.
The one contraindication that leaves me a bit thinking is that the pattern forming on the 4H could be interpreted as a "Bull Flag", but in the current climate it would be hard to play out that way.
Spikey 1H tops during the last 8 hours help keeping me hopeful, but only time can tell.
In any event I have already said goodye to the money risked and am quite calm about it. Will check in later.


Btw: What I am trying to apply here is James16 stuff, my high regards to him and his group.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpjpy.gif Size: 36 KB
Be like a post stamp! Stick to it until you get there!
  • #236
  • May 20, 2008 4:47pm May 20, 2008 4:47pm
if gold reaches 924, buy....tp at least 926....could go way more
  • #237
  • Edited 10:23pm May 20, 2008 10:00pm | Edited 10:23pm
Short EUR/USD at 1.5685, up to 1.5709

EUR just hit this level but you can see from the chart that there are multiple areas historical support and resistance, making for what I hope to be a good trade. I'm scaling into this one up to 1.5709 if price makes it that high. I missed the best entry (for now) personally but heads up on the call. The chart is cut off but even further to the left there are more signs of s/r. Its also at the .50 retracement. You can see how price is stalling around here. Any move up past these levels should run for a little while before calming down.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #238
  • Edited May 21, 2008 1:45am May 20, 2008 10:18pm | Edited May 21, 2008 1:45am
Long USD/JPY 102.74 to 102.60

IF JPY can break past current support of 103.13, this is the next area to be looking at. You can see from the chart its been a painful zone for price on numerous occassions; many traders/banks are going to have their eyes on it.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #239
  • May 20, 2008 10:30pm May 20, 2008 10:30pm
Quoting BillyRayValentine
EUR/JPY short at 163.00. This will probably coincide with the JPY short, again, if price can get up there. EUR/JPY can get volatile sometimes so be a little careful on position size.

Also, watch out for news with any of these levels. Its is easiest way to bust s/r.
This keeps on going. Hit it earlier today and good for another +133 pips.

This is just to give you an idea on how to reuse these levels over and over again. Some get knocked out with 2 or 3 hits, other like this are good for a while. The more it gets used, though, the tougher it gets, and stops should be placed accordingly.

Personally, I mark my charts and set alerts, and decide whether or not to dive in based on current market conditions and correlated pairs and upcoming news.
  • #240
  • May 20, 2008 10:42pm May 20, 2008 10:42pm
Yeah that EJ short this AM was the best no brainer of the day IMO.
History is written by the victors.
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