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  • #3,581
  • Edited 7:08am May 19, 2008 6:51am | Edited 7:08am
Quoting jicjoc
was anyone else looking at gu at 8am gmt this morning?
Perfect short entry or so i thought. Got down and bounced horribly off the low. Now its after bursting up through the high. Im down 50 pips or so...
Thoughts?

The short you took should have been treated as scalping because the price action is above the decision zones, I was also in the trade but treated it as scalping and out with 21 pips as i was waiting for what the price will do at the levels zone which indeed there was a bounce off and which is good for buy.
We need to watch and interprete what the price action is doing so that we dont burn our fingers while taking a position.
The swing fib gave a short but the target was not reach,it indicate that the buy bias still has momentum and if closely watch you should have waited for the buy.
Olorunloniemi.
  • #3,582
  • May 19, 2008 8:55am May 19, 2008 8:55am
Quoting olorunloniem
The short you took should have been treated as scalping because the price action is above the decision zones, I was also in the trade but treated it as scalping and out with 21 pips as i was waiting for what the price will do at the levels zone which indeed there was a bounce off and which is good for buy.
We need to watch and interprete what the price action is doing so that we dont burn our fingers while taking a position.
The swing fib gave a short but the target was not reach,it indicate that the buy bias still has momentum and if closely watch you should have waited for the buy.
Olorunloniemi.
Thanks man,
Looking at it again, i think there may be a skunny style fib going on there.
My fib was incorrect? It should have been based on the 4pm candle gmt from last friday 19529 to 19596. That would have meant that price stayed in the DZ this morning so, no real short trade there. Then the up move would have hit T1 to the pip then retraced back down and currently it is 5 pips away from hitting T1 on the short side.
Of course its all well and good saying that now
  • #3,583
  • May 19, 2008 9:26am May 19, 2008 9:26am
Since you are around if you dont mind putting up chart, I took a trade this morning and it went against and got stopped out, it was the opening of the 9.00 gmt candle which open just above the intraday high .9597.

Just trying to work out what went wrong with the trade or I fibbed wrongly, and see where you placed ur fibs
cheers.........
  • #3,584
  • Edited 1:10pm May 19, 2008 11:00am | Edited 1:10pm
I'll post charts when i get home,
Just to be clear, isnt that the 12gmt candle that opened at 1.9598?

Anyway, some thoughts. I might be totally off here.

First off i would never take a trade that has opened just above a previous high, or below previous low. Your sl and risk:reward ratio would be too great. I like to get trades just as they exit the DZ, with stops placed .....(well this is something im working on)


Second, im not so sure about randomly placing fibs across the previous days range. I dont think it matters even if it looks like a beautiful range. What matters is how the next days (or whatever timeframe) reacts to its levels, and more importantly its DZ. From what ive seen from skunny and vhands you 'have' to place your fib so that it is walked from a previous T1 hit. Preferably you also want this walked fib to enter the DZ and bounce off its levels. If you see price bouncing off levels in the asian session, then you can be fairly sure you have your fib placed correctly and that a break from its DZ will give you a T1 hit.

Third, we have been in a fairly big downward move for a while now, so common sense says to sell rallies in a down move. So i would have been tentative to buy anything really


Possibly this is where the fib should have been drawn. Although im not sure, as i havent walked it from anyplace in particular, just analyzed how it rected to the dz.
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  • #3,585
  • May 19, 2008 4:32pm May 19, 2008 4:32pm
Just want to say thanx for the chart and ur analysis, I agree with some stuff you wrote but fibbing an hourly candle is something I dont do at all and havent seen either Bob or skunny fibbed an hourly candle.

I think one of the reason that trade failed was becuase i took the trade too close to the break of the intraday high though thats how we have been taught price breaks 0/100 buy/sell simple stuff really.......not too complicated but for better R/R and tighter S/L its better to buy/sell when price breaks from Decision Zone(i.e 38 or 62).

Regarding selling rallies and buying the dips(hope I got it right).....well I disagree with you cos even in a downtrend...you can still buy dips and max you profit cos price more often than not retraces to Fibs level.

I remember reading in skunny thread where he ask what is a Trend???so it doesnt matter whether you are buying/selling in whatever trend as long as you are profitable and money in the bank..... cette no probleme.

Well I might be wrong in what I have just said so Bob when next you are around I wont mind a comment or two from you Sir, anyways thanx jicjoc for ur comments.
  • #3,586
  • May 20, 2008 4:27am May 20, 2008 4:27am
i dont think i ever recall a chart where skunny fibbed an hourly candle alone either.
But he drew fibs in very strange area's. He didnt use fibs at all in the same way as Bo does (i think)
And he did say in a post to draw your fibs so its DZ interacts with price, i'll have to find the link to it.
  • #3,587
  • May 20, 2008 12:10pm May 20, 2008 12:10pm
Quoting FaRmAn
Hi Bo,

I have been reading your newly labeled fibs and how to use them. I am not sure about intraday do we still use it alongwith resistance and support fibs. As I understood upuntill now is we use resistance and support fibs as our swing fib. If trend is up, plot support or vice versa. am I right?

I am still not sure about when to actually get into the trade, buying the dips, if support hold, sell the rally, if resistance is not broken but do we still wait for the long or short level of the fib to be broken (by seeing candle open above/below a level)?

Waiting for your expert advice.

Farman
Its a safer entry to wait for the levels to be broken by a candle opening past them. You can use the fib tools to your choosing, the Intraday and the Swing are the same thing as the Support and Resistance fibs just nother way to look at why your placing a fib on a particular movement.
Yes placing a fib on movement going up is pulling the support levels below price, placing a fib on movment going down is pulling the resistance levels above price.
You can use te fib tools in any manner that suits you, even relabel them to your own taste id you like, its all about what your comfortable with or makes sense to you.
  • #3,588
  • May 20, 2008 12:14pm May 20, 2008 12:14pm
Quoting Shermenator
Bo this is the doubt i have right now...

You see on my first chart i had my first tear of resistance ....( the light blue fibb...) this is how i had them
Attachment

Now that they have been broken i pulled it back to the next tear of resistance...let me know if this is right...

Attachment

Let say those brake then I would pull it back again
Attachment

I would keep on pulling back untill I am only left with the major tear...
Is this correct Bo this is my biggest doubt

Attachment

I am finding problems sometimes making a decision long or short....
I am going to make it more simple...
Yes that is correct, as price breaks that tier just back up to the next tier, until you cant go back farther, your only using those to display the resistance or support points ahead of price as it makes its move, price action at each level will show you when to stop backing up with them when you use them this way and it keeps you from having to place a fib tool on eac movement.
  • #3,589
  • May 20, 2008 12:19pm May 20, 2008 12:19pm
Quoting jicjoc
was anyone else looking at gu at 8am gmt this morning?
Perfect short entry or so i thought. Got down and bounced horribly off the low. Now its after bursting up through the high. Im down 50 pips or so...
Thoughts?

When it reverses its direction from the previous day like this treat the first trade as a scalp because price has not proven to you yet that the market is reversing, in this case the short is a scalp until price tested the new Intraday levels and is rejected giving confirmation that price has reversed and the bias is short again.
  • #3,590
  • May 20, 2008 12:28pm May 20, 2008 12:28pm
Quoting zerosum
Just want to say thanx for the chart and ur analysis, I agree with some stuff you wrote but fibbing an hourly candle is something I dont do at all and havent seen either Bob or skunny fibbed an hourly candle.

I think one of the reason that trade failed was becuase i took the trade too close to the break of the intraday high though thats how we have been taught price breaks 0/100 buy/sell simple stuff really.......not too complicated but for better R/R and tighter S/L its better to buy/sell when price breaks from Decision Zone(i.e 38 or 62).

Regarding selling rallies and buying the dips(hope I got it right).....well I disagree with you cos even in a downtrend...you can still buy dips and max you profit cos price more often than not retraces to Fibs level.

I remember reading in skunny thread where he ask what is a Trend???so it doesnt matter whether you are buying/selling in whatever trend as long as you are profitable and money in the bank..... cette no probleme.

Well I might be wrong in what I have just said so Bob when next you are around I wont mind a comment or two from you Sir, anyways thanx jicjoc for ur comments.
Your correct in saying to sell the rally's in a downtrend and buy the dips in an uptrend, the problem we are experiencing is the market itself the conditions are bad , from that I mean we see price reversing from day to day and we are not getting the continuation we would normally get, most trending moves these days wont last more than 2-3 days and we see reversal signals..sometimes its from one day to the next, its just the current market conditions we are having to deal with, having to deal with alot more scalping than normal. This will most likely continue until either the US or the UK can show consistant economic progress or stability, just look at your Daily chart ,compare the candles we are getting now with last years, youll find alot more chop in the market.
  • #3,591
  • May 20, 2008 12:32pm May 20, 2008 12:32pm
Quoting jicjoc
i dont think i ever recall a chart where skunny fibbed an hourly candle alone either.
But he drew fibs in very strange area's. He didnt use fibs at all in the same way as Bo does (i think)
And he did say in a post to draw your fibs so its DZ interacts with price, i'll have to find the link to it.

I dont recomment placing a fib on a single candle, or move your fib around until price is in the inner levels area, you end up trying to make them fit and give you the wrong impresion. Its best to measure the movements and retracments to those movements.
  • #3,592
  • Edited 12:56pm May 20, 2008 12:39pm | Edited 12:56pm
Quoting Bobokus
I dont recomment placing a fib on a single candle, or move your fib around until price is in the inner levels area, you end up trying to make them fit and give you the wrong impresion. Its best to measure the movements and retracments to those movements.
Cool man, normally id never do this, but skunny stirred something in me and well it just fits with what im seeing on vhands.
Look at what i just dug up from the start of the month.
Thats amazing to me! and ive seen it so often. i think i have about 100 trades on vhands with very strange looking fibs, but the price interacted with the DZ and then went on and hit T1. Sometimes it hit +T1, then went right down and hit -T1. There has to be something there

Thoughts?



Here's another trade where T1 was hit and then became resistance. My fib here was walked from a previous 'strange' fib
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  • #3,593
  • May 20, 2008 1:18pm May 20, 2008 1:18pm
Quoting jicjoc
Cool man, normally id never do this, but skunny stirred something in me and well it just fits with what im seeing on vhands.
Look at what i just dug up from the start of the month.
Thats amazing to me! and ive seen it so often. i think i have about 100 trades on vhands with very strange looking fibs, but the price interacted with the DZ and then went on and hit T1. Sometimes it hit +T1, then went right down and hit -T1. There has to be something there

Thoughts?



Here's another trade where T1 was hit and then became resistance. My fib here was walked from a previous 'strange' fib
I would not attempt that in live trading, you can pick places to put a fib tool to make them show that its target levels were hit to the pip, but in realtime its not going to work like that. Look at your larger timeframe fib levels, when you place your fibs like this you not going to be able to tell when the market is failing to reach levels to indicate loss of momentum by failing to reach target levels or identify when the market is trying to reverse on you. Your also going to miss the better entry points by measuring only portions of price movement and take yourself out early thinking a target has been reached.
Dont look to try and make fibs hit to the pip, they only show possible support and resistance levels projected ahead of price they dont predict to the pip targets. There is too much chaos and inaccuracy in the logic that the market move in perfect to the pip moves. The market does not move in preplanned to the pip moves. Target ranges may be detirmined but only in the sense that an Interest rate change will change the value of a currency by xxx of a percentage and it then moves in that direction...80% of the way there an economic disaster happens and reverses the market...it wont return to the original target range because the market condition have changed...6 months later the condition may reverse again and price may return to that level but for different ciromstances and a different targets in that area of price.
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  • #3,594
  • May 20, 2008 2:27pm May 20, 2008 2:27pm
Thanks for your response truly appreciated......its just that the current market conditions are really testing my nerves but learning to adapt better to it.

The only worrying aspect of it........is that with the current global crisis going on this current market condition might continue well into the summer months so no let-up for us intraday traders for a long while.

Thanks for introducing me to Fibs Sir, will always appreciate that............ now I have a better understanding of PA and market movement.

Hope we will see you around in the Tradingrooms sometime soon......we can always do with your knowledge and wisdom especially in this current market condition.
  • #3,595
  • May 20, 2008 2:38pm May 20, 2008 2:38pm
Quoting Bobokus
I would not attempt that in live trading, you can pick places to put a fib tool to make them show that its target levels were hit to the pip, but in realtime its not going to work like that. Look at your larger timeframe fib levels, when you place your fibs like this you not going to be able to tell when the market is failing to reach levels to indicate loss of momentum by failing to reach target levels or identify when the market is trying to reverse on you. Your also going to miss the better entry points by measuring only portions of price movement and take yourself out early thinking a target has been reached.
Dont look to try and make fibs hit to the pip, they only show possible support and resistance levels projected ahead of price they dont predict to the pip targets. There is too much chaos and inaccuracy in the logic that the market move in perfect to the pip moves. The market does not move in preplanned to the pip moves. Target ranges may be detirmined but only in the sense that an Interest rate change will change the value of a currency by xxx of a percentage and it then moves in that direction...80% of the way there an economic disaster happens and reverses the market...it wont return to the original target range because the market condition have changed...6 months later the condition may reverse again and price may return to that level but for different ciromstances and a different targets in that area of price.
very good post for all the fib followers (including myself).
  • #3,596
  • May 20, 2008 2:49pm May 20, 2008 2:49pm
Quoting zerosum
Thanks for your response truly appreciated......its just that the current market conditions are really testing my nerves but learning to adapt better to it.

The only worrying aspect of it........is that with the current global crisis going on this current market condition might continue well into the summer months so no let-up for us intraday traders for a long while.

Thanks for introducing me to Fibs Sir, will always appreciate that............ now I have a better understanding of PA and market movement.

Hope we will see you around in the Tradingrooms sometime soon......we can always do with your knowledge and wisdom especially in this current market condition.
I was thinkin of popping in there one night this week and see how everyone is doing.
  • #3,597
  • May 20, 2008 4:33pm May 20, 2008 4:33pm
Quoting Bobokus
I would not attempt that in live trading, you can pick places to put a fib tool to make them show that its target levels were hit to the pip, but in realtime its not going to work like that.

Well you see thats the thing, those fibs are not in random places. They are walked according to a strategy i have watched on vhands, and from skunnys thread. it doesnt work all the time but it is surprisingly accurate. It seems to work much better for me than using intraday levels


Look at your larger timeframe fib levels, when you place your fibs like this you not going to be able to tell when the market is failing to reach levels to indicate loss of momentum by failing to reach target levels or identify when the market is trying to reverse on you.

Good point, im not sure how this way of walking fibs holds together at all. But it seems to track movement and changes of direction. Sometimes at least. I havent spent enough time testing it yet though


Your also going to miss the better entry points by measuring only portions of price movement and take yourself out early thinking a target has been reached.

Yes definitely, i need to work on this

 Dont look to try and make fibs hit to the pip, they only show possible support and resistance levels projected ahead of price they dont predict to the pip targets. There is too much chaos and inaccuracy in the logic that the market move in perfect to the pip moves. The market does not move in preplanned to the pip moves. Target ranges may be detirmined but only in the sense that an Interest rate change will change the value of a currency by xxx of a percentage and it then moves in that direction...80% of the way there an economic disaster happens and reverses the market...it wont return to the original target range because the market condition have changed...6 months later the condition may reverse again and price may return to that level but for different ciromstances and a different targets in that area of price.

Yes 6 months ago i would have agreed. Then i read skunnys thread and did a lot of testing and asked myself a lot of questions Now im starting to think differently...

Thanks Bo. I replied above.
  • #3,598
  • May 20, 2008 6:37pm May 20, 2008 6:37pm
Quoting jicjoc
Thanks Bo. I replied above.
Just wanted to save you alot of time invested into trying to find that magic combination thats going to give you 100% winners, the market just isnt moved in perfect to the pip moves. But I know just like everyone we have to go through the steps to find this out for ourselves or we wont remember or believe it until we see it for ourselves. I dont know of anyone who doesnt...its how we learn.
If you can develope something that you can trade successfully over time consistantly then you may have found your mark and how the market makes sense to you, thats what you continue to follow.
Do your testing by forward testing with a demo in realtime ,thats a more accurate account of how something will perform. Vhands is great for learning something, trading it is somewhat different when applied in realtime.
  • #3,599
  • May 21, 2008 1:46am May 21, 2008 1:46am
A Classic Cable Bo fib trade last night/yesterday morning,

Intraday fib shows a 1H candle close above the DZ, entry at 1.9557 with a 40 pip stop loss set at 1.9517. price retraces to the pivot so i only have to sweat out a brief 20 pip drawdown and then it was all gravy from there to my T1, a little better than a 3:1 RR.....
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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trading naked.......
  • #3,600
  • May 21, 2008 1:58am May 21, 2008 1:58am
Quoting piphitman
A Classic Cable Bo fib trade last night/yesterday morning,

Intraday fib shows a 1H candle close above the DZ, entry at 1.9557 with a 40 pip stop loss set at 1.9517. price retraces to the pivot so i only have to sweat out a brief 20 pip drawdown and then it was all gravy from there to my T1, a little better than a 3:1 RR.....
a great trade....encouraging action so far this morning towards the support levels for a 'reset'.
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