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Daily Cable Analysis

  • #4,461
  • Jan 29, 2007 12:40am Jan 29, 2007 12:40am
Quoting dukeofdents
Good way to lose your ass over time, try macroeconomic analysis first and use technicals as entry and exit signals...
Price converges with macroeconomic analysis over the very long term. Changes in current expectations on Macroeconmic analysis affects shorter to longer term. Reaction to news releases hinting on macroeconmic trends affects the very short term, but mostly in an impulsive non analytic manner. TA is a good measure in which to view all of these, yet doesn't lead the market either. Order flow above all else leads the market in the near term. Anything giving clues into this aspect will perform superior to all else.
Man who scratches ass should not bite fingernails
  • #4,462
  • Jan 29, 2007 12:42am Jan 29, 2007 12:42am
Quoting dukeofdents
How's that methodology working out for you, Leugimp?

Pretty well, can be improved but pays the bills.
Man who scratches ass should not bite fingernails
  • #4,463
  • Jan 29, 2007 12:45am Jan 29, 2007 12:45am
I'm looking at a long term downtrend from my method. But, for now, small pivot for today due to lack of news & strong support. (Could also be, because my ALPHA cow is giving birth ). Therefore, by my calculation, there is a small pivot. this is it today, for me.

Buy CABLE at 19573
TP 19687
SL 19554

A matter of sharing opinion. GOODD TRADE TO ALL
Veritas Omnia Vincit
  • #4,464
  • Jan 29, 2007 12:48am Jan 29, 2007 12:48am
I'm short for now. Yes, Leugimp, market expectations color price movement. However, when a release has an effect on your technicals, you should take notice and react. That release will have an effect on that pair over time...
"The time to act is when others show signs of tire." --W.D. Gann
  • #4,465
  • Jan 29, 2007 12:50am Jan 29, 2007 12:50am
For all looking to go long gbpjpy, do so with caution. The USDJPY is in the midst of forming a double repenetration move on the dailys after hard thrust in the pair. GBPJPY has dipped below the daily 3X3 and has diverged with USDJPY(makes sense since USD has been gaining ground on GBP). IF USDJPY falls bellow 121.47 today, 121.34 tomorrow, or 121.31 on Wed on the daily close, without GBPJPY coming back over and holding the 3X3, this may imply some serious strength coming for the Yen on a longer term basis.Many more carry trades should unwind immediately if this were to happen.
Man who scratches ass should not bite fingernails
  • #4,466
  • Jan 29, 2007 12:51am Jan 29, 2007 12:51am
,...im with u,....just one thing, why not go long usd/jpy, instead of short gbp/usd, and long gbp/jpy...
its just money
  • #4,467
  • Jan 29, 2007 12:54am Jan 29, 2007 12:54am
Quoting dukeofdents
I'm short for now. Yes, Leugimp, market expectations color price movement. However, when a release has an effect on your technicals, you should take notice and react. That release will have an effect on that pair over time...
Agreed, but only so much as that release and the technicals following would give you a hint on how to take advantage of order flow, at least in the immediate short term.
Man who scratches ass should not bite fingernails
  • #4,468
  • Jan 29, 2007 12:57am Jan 29, 2007 12:57am
Quoting Leugimp
For all looking to go long gbpjpy, do so with caution. The USDJPY is in the midst of forming a double repenetration move on the dailys after hard thrust in the pair. GBPJPY has dipped below the daily 3X3 and has diverged with USDJPY(makes sense since USD has been gaining ground on GBP). IF USDJPY falls bellow 121.47 today, 121.34 tomorrow, or 121.31 on Wed on the daily close, without GBPJPY coming back over and holding the 3X3, this may imply some serious strength coming for the Yen on a longer term basis.Many more carry trades should unwind immediately if this were to happen.
If GBP remains in a downtrend with USD as well in this immediate short term and if the above scenario were to occur, GBPJPY would end up taking a major beating.
Man who scratches ass should not bite fingernails
  • #4,469
  • Jan 29, 2007 1:11am Jan 29, 2007 1:11am
I'm not looking to long cable, Leugimp. I was looking to long GBP/JPY, but I'm still waiting. God, you short-term traders drive me nuts. It's not about the minute. It's about the day...
"The time to act is when others show signs of tire." --W.D. Gann
  • #4,470
  • Jan 29, 2007 1:12am Jan 29, 2007 1:12am
It might even be about the week...
"The time to act is when others show signs of tire." --W.D. Gann
  • #4,471
  • Jan 29, 2007 1:19am Jan 29, 2007 1:19am
Since a 10 or 20 pip move doesn't make a shit to me, it looks like all bets are off until New York and Chicago. I'm going to bed...
"The time to act is when others show signs of tire." --W.D. Gann
  • #4,472
  • Jan 29, 2007 1:23am Jan 29, 2007 1:23am
DJ MARKET TALK: Talk Of Cable Stops Below 1.9550

Mon Jan 29 04:15:51 2007
EST

0915 GMT [Dow Jones] Trader hearing talk of decent-sized cable stops below
1.9550. The rate is currently at 1.9575.

Watch out for stops hunting.
Tra-X
  • #4,473
  • Jan 29, 2007 1:27am Jan 29, 2007 1:27am
Quoting dukeofdents
It might even be about the week...
maybee even the month or the year...howabout decade and century, why narrow down to the day or week? that way you will be dead before ever proven wrong. I'm not against daily and weekly, all for it chief, but don't come here with your holier than thou attitude talking about you dont give a shit blah blah blah.... that is all fine dikeofdents, but don't be such an internet tough guy, go take your agression out on your boyfriend. Cheerio!
Man who scratches ass should not bite fingernails
  • #4,474
  • Jan 29, 2007 1:40am Jan 29, 2007 1:40am
be nice...and look monthly charts and barclays report for gbp/jpy,...
its just money
  • #4,475
  • Jan 29, 2007 1:52am Jan 29, 2007 1:52am
Quoting dukeofdents
Since a 10 or 20 pip move doesn't make a shit to me, it looks like all bets are off until New York and Chicago. I'm going to bed...
whats wrong with making 10 or 20 pips ???... just keep ringing the cash register....thats how i was taught... but make sure when your wrong bail...fast
  • #4,476
  • Jan 29, 2007 1:56am Jan 29, 2007 1:56am
Quoting de123
be nice...and look monthly charts and barclays report for gbp/jpy,...

looks like on a closing basis, it will hold below the 1998 high, with weekly divergence and trading below the daily 3X3. If USDJPY DOuble repo occurs soon, and USD continues strength over pound(2 ifs), GBPJPY will suffer immensely(by immensely I only mean down to 230-233 level in the minimum, not too bad) and quickly, especially with the inexperienced newbie fad following carry-traders on board. This is not opinion it is fact and Barclays knows it, although of course confirmation would be needed on two ifs before a play would be made on this knowledge.
Man who scratches ass should not bite fingernails
  • #4,477
  • Jan 29, 2007 1:56am Jan 29, 2007 1:56am
Quoting de123
be nice...and look monthly charts and barclays report for gbp/jpy,...
Is the barclays report available online?
  • #4,478
  • Jan 29, 2007 2:03am Jan 29, 2007 2:03am
i dont know,...check it,...but overview says be carefull, they will be...if u check monthly chart u will see double top, if not broken....
its just money
  • #4,479
  • Jan 29, 2007 2:07am Jan 29, 2007 2:07am
any idea about CBI Result effect??
  • #4,480
  • Jan 29, 2007 2:15am Jan 29, 2007 2:15am
Quoting viking
any idea about CBI Result effect??
The Confederation of British Industry (CBI) Distributive Trades Realized Survey measures the health of the retail sector by asking executives if their firm experienced an increase or decrease in sales compared to a year ago. A positive number indicates that more retailers reported an increase. A rising trend has a positive effect on the nation's currency because Retail Sales make up a large portion of consumer spending, which is a major driver of the economy.
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