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4 Hour Strategy (MACD)

  • #14,881
  • Edited 9:00am May 16, 2008 7:58am | Edited 9:00am
I took the tail on once again on better then expected housing start stats. This time full position.

Allready 50% closed for 25pips. Remainder set at -25 so that overall takeout is BE

Entry was off smaller TF but also when the stats were released and it were better then expected and price came down to previouse candle close I took the odds on. I am still in the process of being in a trade if it breaks to the downside. That is the whole purpose of getting invloved within the triangle.
It however did not break through. So still some sweating to be done. At least I have half a position in with stoploss set at 1.5500.

Looks like it on its way up to 1.5500. Time will tell. Looks like better stats was not good enough

Edit.
Second attempt to position for a breakout stopped out for BE. Well I cannot say I did not try. I now rest my case. It is Friday late afternoon here and I am going to relax now. Dont be surprise if they do something later. It looks like they are watching us.

Have a super weekend
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #14,882
  • May 16, 2008 8:19am May 16, 2008 8:19am
Quoting Phillip Nel
I took the tail on once again on better then expected housing start stats. This time full position.

Allready 50% closed for 25pips. Remainder set at -25 so that overall takeout is BE
ur sell was in the middle of H1/H4 candle.did u use smaller TF?
  • #14,883
  • May 16, 2008 8:27am May 16, 2008 8:27am
Quoting bshadroo
ur sell was in the middle of H1/H4 candle.did u use smaller TF?
Yes it was off smaller TF but also when the stats were released and it were better then expected and price came down to previouse candle close I took the odds on. I am still in the process of being in a trade if it breaks to the downside. That is the whole purpose of getting invloved within the triangle.
It however did not break through. So still some sweating to be done. At least I have half a position in with stoploss set at 1.5500.

Looks like it on its way up to 1.5500. Time will tell. Looks like better stats was not good enough.
  • #14,884
  • Edited May 17, 2008 12:55am May 16, 2008 8:33am | Edited May 17, 2008 12:55am
Euro; I have looked at the 365ema now on the 4hr, daily and 12 hour charts.(12 hours using 12hour moving averages on a 4 hr chart, not 12 hour candles, as yet anyhow.).

My preliminary conclusion as to why we get 365ema congestion/ranging is pretty much what i expected. I see the price as being traded more or less equally over all time frames simultaneously, abit like 3d chess. Except we cannot see it all at once. It would be nice if we could , because then we could select that time frame to which the price is refering that partic day and then trade it on the 4 hr chart accordingly.

Thus the congestion on a 4hr chart is much more clearly explained looking at high times frames, daily or 12 hour ,for instance. With partic. reference to the 89 and 200 i suspect and therefore derive rules from there. More work and input required though, but those are my immediate ideas. I shall take a look at other pairings later.

This present 4hr chart has approximations of daily and 12hr moving averages on, its hardly a surprise we have congestion presently.The struggles that are causing it lie elsewhere and the 365ema merely its 4hr sympthom.

I have refined the daily 89sma on the chart below and is now a better fit for that moving average, more accurate.(It now reads as a 450sma not a 534sma).
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Click to Enlarge Name: eurodaily.gif Size: 23 KB
  • #14,885
  • May 16, 2008 9:00am May 16, 2008 9:00am
Euro; My feeling with the Euro right now is that because its trapped on daily charts between the 21 and 89 its getting heated up, and its trapped there until the players find fresh incentives. Then we might expect a sudden break out, north or south?, who knows. The 12 hours suggest a return to the 89sma there, and 4hr maybe to the 200 which is in a similar position. But as yet the incentives are not present to release the tensions and until they are emotions continue to build. As long as i am at the party when it starts, i dont really care.
  • #14,886
  • May 16, 2008 9:10am May 16, 2008 9:10am
Quoting ira
Well done Maxster! I still want to learn your advanced entries, although I haven't got a complete understanding.
Look at my 1 hour chart, there is nothing tells me at the point 1.5430 that the price may go up, except maybe a spinner, but even it comes higher.
I know that you have a newborn baby - my sincere congratulations!!! But I would like to ask you, could you please make a document, where you describe the sequence of your action on one trade example. I think there are many traders who would welcome this idea.

Ira,

I sent you a PM so I don't confuse the newcomers.

But I couldn't attach the chart so here it is.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #14,887
  • Edited 12:52pm May 16, 2008 9:22am | Edited 12:52pm
Hhhhmmm, thats what conviction and timing can do for you then. Only on demo, after that news event i bought 6 lots long on the Euro to the high from the previous day for +77.(In less than 10 mins also which was nice, all over nice and quick.) Obvioulsy not a 4hr trade, we will see if that high from previous day and the trendline keep the lid on the price.

Straightforward breakout. I waited till the breakout candle had fallen back and bought as it fell and waited until it went to the high from the previous day. Distance was short and an obvious target. Largest lot was +18 smallest +8. Like Phil said it felt right, a sense of something coming and continuing after i guess.
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  • #14,888
  • Edited 11:20am May 16, 2008 9:29am | Edited 11:20am
Much lower than expected. Worst for mid May since 1980 reports are saying. Therefore the move upwards. Hope you catch some pips on shorter timeframe.

Got in on 1min after the news finding support on 21ema. Currently trailing by 35 and will close later tonight.

Reason for showing this is that news can be traded. Stops are tight so loss is minimal. When price turned around before the sentiment news I just had a feeling that the news is going to be bad.
Have a nice weekend.
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  • #14,889
  • May 16, 2008 9:36am May 16, 2008 9:36am
Quoting napeharm
Euro; My feeling with the Euro right now is that because its trapped on daily charts between the 21 and 89 its getting heated up, and its trapped there until the players find fresh incentives. Then we might expect a sudden break out, north or south?, who knows. The 12 hours suggest a return to the 89sma there, and 4hr maybe to the 200 which is in a similar position. But as yet the incentives are not present to release the tensions and until they are emotions continue to build. As long as i am at the party when it starts, i dont really care.

At which circle hint would you say price is about to range? For me I was expecting price to range on the daily chart after the first red circle between 1.5550 and 1.5340.

Just watching the S/R levels and price will indicate this.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #14,890
  • May 16, 2008 9:43am May 16, 2008 9:43am
Quoting maxster
At which circle hint would you say price is about to range? For me I was expecting price to range on the daily chart after the first red circle between 1.5550 and 1.5340.

Just watching the S/R levels and price will indicate this.

For me i suspect, after the price touched the 89sma on the daily and bounced off, and seeing the 21 coming down. It would either fall through the 89, but it was a pin, or go up to the 21 and bounce around. Then the 89sma comes up almost pushing the price towards the 21 and the pressure builds. The price then gets funnelled like a lobster pot, tapering towards one end. Obviously the earlier we can see this the better, but i looked at the history this afternoon and this pattern on the daily chart occurs 4 times, which is useful to look out for.
  • #14,891
  • May 16, 2008 12:34pm May 16, 2008 12:34pm
Further research on GBP and USDJPY suggests the 365 ema issue on 4hr is caused by the proximity on other times frames of the 89sma and 200sma in particular. Sometimes the 365 also. But the issue can often be when the price is sandwiched between the 89 and 200, it forms a kind of pocket or bubble in which the price sits. On the GBP 12 hrs (shown below) this occured some 8 times out of 13 since 2001.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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  • #14,892
  • May 16, 2008 12:39pm May 16, 2008 12:39pm
There are two examples with the 365 from the 4hr running through the middle in thick red, making it easier to compare with the longer moving averages form a 12 hr chart.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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  • #14,893
  • May 17, 2008 4:28am May 17, 2008 4:28am
Euro. This is another way to look at the Euro at the moment. This chart shows both daily moving averages in thick, and 12hr shown less thick and the 365 from the 4hr, on a 4hr time frame. It is no surprise to me we have congestion here. I have a template with these on and the areas of congestion are clear to see. However i dont want to clog up the thread further with this and so i may collect some observations, charts or templates and post a zip, we will see.(The thick blue is the daily 21ema, the grey are 89sma from daily and 12hr, the thin red is the 365 from th 4hr for reference).
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #14,894
  • Edited 9:00am May 17, 2008 6:14am | Edited 9:00am
Ok just one more then. This chart shows an indicator i have adapted showing the 89sma from the 12 hour and daily chart in the form of a coloured histogram with lines around it also. This shows more clearly the areas where congestion might take place on the 4hr chart. If anyone wants to pick up this ball and run with it, then i have enclosed the indicators. The moving average parameters can be changed in the code to show other lengths etc, place the histogram indicator onto the chart first followed by the lines if you wish to use them. Template enclosed also, but my MIG history is abit patchy and glitchy, i hope yours is better.(Rectangles coloured lavender are the congestion areas, the smoke white areas are places of support and resistance i found interesting, remove them if you wish).

Please use the template in the next post, that one uses the indicators shown.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: euro.indics.gif Size: 26 KB
Attached File(s)
File Type: mq4 4hr.267.450.sma.Histogram.mq4   2 KB | 580 downloads
File Type: mq4 4hr.267.450.sma.lines.mq4   2 KB | 579 downloads
File Type: tpl 365ema4hr.histogram.tpl   10 KB | 474 downloads
  • #14,895
  • Edited 7:04am May 17, 2008 6:38am | Edited 7:04am
This is a revised template using the indicators posted.

( I have also another histogram indicator showing the 200sma and 89sma from the 12hr chart. This overlaps the other histogram covering more areas of possible congestion, with template if anyone is interested in this research).

What i am attemtping to show here is the relationship between the long moving averages and areas of congestion on our 4hr charts. Also to show this in the clearest way. To see if these observations are valid and whether they can be seen in the future to be forewarned, and also which moving averages are involved.
Attached File(s)
File Type: tpl 365ema4hr.histogram.tpl   10 KB | 560 downloads
  • #14,896
  • May 17, 2008 10:49am May 17, 2008 10:49am
Quoting maxster
Ira,

I sent you a PM so I don't confuse the newcomers.

But I couldn't attach the chart so here it is.
Hi, Maxster,

Could you paste your message regarding to this chart here or PM to me? Many thanks.

Macalmd
  • #14,897
  • May 17, 2008 11:30am May 17, 2008 11:30am
Quoting Phillip Nel
Much lower than expected. Worst for mid May since 1980 reports are saying. Therefore the move upwards. Hope you catch some pips on shorter timeframe.

Got in on 1min after the news finding support on 21ema. Currently trailing by 35 and will close later tonight.

Reason for showing this is that news can be traded. Stops are tight so loss is minimal. When price turned around before the sentiment news I just had a feeling that the news is going to be bad.
Have a nice weekend.
i love 1 minute news entry and i have posted some of them in m5 thread befor,please:
1-i need ur exact entry candle
2-why u didnt post it in M5 thread with 10,21,50 ma's?
3-do u look at bloomberg,... in time of news or reading fundamental webpages?
  • #14,898
  • May 17, 2008 11:37am May 17, 2008 11:37am
Quoting macalmd
Hi, Maxster,

Could you paste your message regarding to this chart here or PM to me? Many thanks.

Macalmd
Maxster, could you do the same for me as well?

I would love to see what your mind saw to take the trade. I saw the tails, and I knew that there would be a break of the triangle sometime soon, and it would be strong, but I was not confident of when to catch the break.
  • #14,899
  • May 17, 2008 1:49pm May 17, 2008 1:49pm
Quoting bshadroo
i love 1 minute news entry and i have posted some of them in m5 thread befor,please:
1-i need ur exact entry candle
2-why u didnt post it in M5 thread with 10,21,50 ma's?
3-do u look at bloomberg,... in time of news or reading fundamental webpages?
I use no indicators on 1min entries except the 21ema(on 5min 20ema-no diiference really between the two).
The 21ema is my pullback reference from which I make my entries. Even the entry bar is not allways at close of bar. If the news goes I pull the trigger when a candle statrs moving away from the 21ema. Thats it. Nothing difficult. I only enter once with stoploss about 10-15pips. If that is taken out I am out as well. It is all about getting a chance. If it runs I might use the 50sma as an exit strategy otherwise I will exit on a trailing stop. Thats it.
  • #14,900
  • May 17, 2008 2:12pm May 17, 2008 2:12pm
Quoting Phillip Nel
I use no indicators on 1min entries except the 21ema(on 5min 20ema-no diiference really between the two).
The 21ema is my pullback reference from which I make my entries. Even the entry bar is not allways at close of bar. If the news goes I pull the trigger when a candle statrs moving away from the 21ema. Thats it. Nothing difficult. I only enter once with stoploss about 10-15pips. If that is taken out I am out as well. It is all about getting a chance. If it runs I might use the 50sma as an exit strategy otherwise I will exit on a trailing stop. Thats it.
thx for the answear
and please:
3-do u look at bloomberg,... in time of news or reading fundamental webpages?
because i use to read or look at TV in early days of my trading then i quite this and focous on technival and i now want to know what u do .
thx
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