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Real Time Fibonacci Analysis

  • #161
  • May 16, 2008 4:44am May 16, 2008 4:44am
Looking like its having some bullish push...though price is having major problems closing on the other side of the resistance levels...bery slow mover news should be factor in the trade now..

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Also on the 4 hour candle that getting close to close...price is still holding at the major resistance pivot...

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though the good thing is the currency is bullish on the fundy side
  • #162
  • May 16, 2008 4:46am May 16, 2008 4:46am
I think I will just wait for a better set-up and decide my next move, as Bob always say missing a trade is much better than losing a trade.
  • #163
  • May 16, 2008 4:50am May 16, 2008 4:50am
gb has now had 3 goes at trying to break thru the 9500 area and failed each time. Although did spike up & thought, here we go north. But was stopped on b/even. I should have taken profit at 9524 fib level. I still feel it is bullish as it keeps rejecting the 9465 fib area. Perhaps we are waiting for US housing starts for some direction here. If not next weeks another week. It will decide itself when to move I suppose.
  • #164
  • May 16, 2008 4:51am May 16, 2008 4:51am
  •  FxChi
  • | Joined Dec 2007 | Status: Cash Rules Everything Around Me | 749 Posts
Yeah that's what I'd do Zerosum. Right now I'm just trying to manage the trade as best I can. Choosing bulls/bears is difficult b/c keeps going back and forth. No clear direction. Hopefully get a surge in price in next few minutes to close above 1.9500 so I can feel a little better about the position. lol.
"Wishful thinking dies hard." Igor T.
  • #165
  • May 16, 2008 4:58am May 16, 2008 4:58am
Looking like its going to be the trade for today...its looking very neat to short....

Price has rejected the main resistance level and it has not been able to break on the 4 hour chart and thats how i look at the major fibbs besides the daily chart.....

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Look at the eur/usd 4 hour chart and we have only pierced the resistance but never have we goten a brake...looking very good as a short...

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Also this currency is on the bearish on the fundy side...

Let me know what you guys think
  • #166
  • May 16, 2008 5:02am May 16, 2008 5:02am
better pic

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  • #167
  • May 16, 2008 5:10am May 16, 2008 5:10am
you can wait for a trendline break or a close below the intradayshort for higher probabilty...
  • #168
  • May 16, 2008 5:20am May 16, 2008 5:20am
  •  FxChi
  • | Joined Dec 2007 | Status: Cash Rules Everything Around Me | 749 Posts
Alright guys I bailed on the trade. Lesson learned in patience. That sucked. I don't like how this candle's low is lower than previous candle. Oh well. Live to trade another day. Hope you guys have good luck trading. Yes Sherm Euro momentum does appear to be going down, but watch out for support @ 1.5426 (that's my support pivot on 4hr).
"Wishful thinking dies hard." Igor T.
  • #169
  • May 16, 2008 5:24am May 16, 2008 5:24am
Quoting FxChi
Alright guys I bailed on the trade. Lesson learned in patience. That sucked. I don't like how this candle's low is lower than previous candle. Oh well. Live to trade another day. Hope you guys have good luck trading. Yes Sherm Euro momentum does appear to be going down, but watch out for support @ 1.5426 (that's my support pivot on 4hr).

Yep i agree with that...its strong but price gave the confirmation with 4 hour chart i believe alot in the way price has rejected that resistance level...also this currency is on the bearish side on the fundy side...

http://www.pfxglobal.com/eur-usd/eur...trading-2.html
  • #170
  • May 16, 2008 5:27am May 16, 2008 5:27am
I guess ur faded nick means that u have been banned from posting so this suspension and banning is been taking seriously in FF.........so what could you have done....
  • #171
  • May 16, 2008 5:37am May 16, 2008 5:37am
If you take trade short make sure this levels hold ...if this levels get tested then play the limits of this levels....YEllow fibb...

Fallow price as it goes down...if they get tested aim for there targets not the intraday levels...unless you are willing to hld your trade thrue another sing fibb...

Pay attention to major levels below of support...

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  • #172
  • May 16, 2008 10:35am May 16, 2008 10:35am
  •  FxChi
  • | Joined Dec 2007 | Status: Cash Rules Everything Around Me | 749 Posts
Was spot on and I still managed to botch the trade.
"Wishful thinking dies hard." Igor T.
  • #173
  • May 16, 2008 10:50am May 16, 2008 10:50am
The fundy did the trick today...
  • #174
  • May 16, 2008 11:10am May 16, 2008 11:10am
  •  FxChi
  • | Joined Dec 2007 | Status: Cash Rules Everything Around Me | 749 Posts
There's a lesson here for me somewhere. I felt so confident in the trade I calculated my position so that I'd incur a max DD of 6% if price were to test the 1.9361 support. I feel comfortable with a 6% DD b/c it's an easy DD to overcome. However, on standard positions I'll use a max DD of 3%.

When price was ranging I decided to exit and protect the profits I had accumulated over the past weeks b/c wasn't sure if it'd break and I was at top of range. Now I'm pretty much back at square one again with the loss. Psychologically, this is frustrating for the trade to play out as planned and still lose. Sorry to vent here guys. So what did I do wrong in the trade?

When I originally took the trade, I took the break of the highs because I believed we were forming a daily Morning Star. When I entered I immediately knew I could've gotten a better price if had been more patient. So perhaps that's lesson 1 for me and being more patient on entries.

Maybe the second thing I did wrong was not let price test the support levels. I wanted to protect my profits though and switched the plan in the middle of the trade. B/c originally I thought I'd be willing to incur a 6% DD max with so many indications of a move up and strong support. Was it the right thing to do to try and protect equity? Or should I have stuck to the plan and incurred whatever DD b/c that's a part of trading.

I need to think about this trade more. At least I'm not in the minus. I built the account up once, so I can do it again. Just a mild setback, and I need to uncover the lesson here. I'm still wondering if protecting the profits was the right thing to do or let the trade play out.
"Wishful thinking dies hard." Igor T.
  • #175
  • May 16, 2008 11:25am May 16, 2008 11:25am
Quoting FxChi
There's a lesson here for me somewhere. I felt so confident in the trade I calculated my position so that I'd incur a max DD of 6% if price were to test the 1.9361 support. I feel comfortable with a 6% DD b/c it's an easy DD to overcome. However, on standard positions I'll use a max DD of 3%.

When price was ranging I decided to exit and protect the profits I had accumulated over the past weeks b/c wasn't sure if it'd break and I was at top of range. Now I'm pretty much back at square one again with the loss. Psychologically, this is frustrating for the trade to play out as planned and still lose. Sorry to vent here guys. So what did I do wrong in the trade?

When I originally took the trade, I took the break of the highs because I believed we were forming a daily Morning Star. When I entered I immediately knew I could've gotten a better price if had been more patient. So perhaps that's lesson 1 for me and being more patient on entries.

Maybe the second thing I did wrong was not let price test the support levels. I wanted to protect my profits though and switched the plan in the middle of the trade. B/c originally I thought I'd be willing to incur a 6% DD max with so many indications of a move up and strong support. Was it the right thing to do to try and protect equity? Or should I have stuck to the plan and incurred whatever DD b/c that's a part of trading.

I need to think about this trade more. At least I'm not in the minus. I built the account up once, so I can do it again. Just a mild setback, and I need to uncover the lesson here. I'm still wondering if protecting the profits was the right thing to do or let the trade play out.

when you came in your target was about 30 pips or such....it would not make any reason to take a chance to gamble 60 pips for 30 of profit...if anything if support held as it did you could have come in long again after the market showed support again....I would have closed my long also the fundi was a gamble....good choice...on the entry though it was a good decesion...you can always ask yourself if you should of waited for a candle to open on the other side...but this is after the fact....so i look at it as a good trade the only thing I am always aware of is the targets of the counter fibb to the intrday sometimes i will close my trade at that spot if the candle is lagging to much......
  • #176
  • May 16, 2008 11:34am May 16, 2008 11:34am
  •  FxChi
  • | Joined Dec 2007 | Status: Cash Rules Everything Around Me | 749 Posts
Quoting Shermenator
when you came in your target was about 30 pips or such....it would not make any reason to take a chance to gamble 60 pips for 30 of profit...if anything if support held as it did you could have come in long again after the market showed support again....I would have closed my long also the fundi was a gamble....good choice...on the entry though it was a good decesion...you can always ask yourself if you should of waited for a candle to open on the other side...but this is after the fact....so i look at it as a good trade the only thing I am always aware of is the targets of the counter fibb to the intrday sometimes i will close my trade at that spot if the candle is lagging to much......
Thanks Sherm. In regards to targets my first target was 1.9612 (coming out a few pips in front of res @ 1.9632). 2/3 of my initial entry would TP there. The other 2 were separate entries. 1 gunning for 1.9690 and 1.9740. I was planning on moving stops to BE b/c I'd anticipate 3 days before those targets were met.

EDIT: At time of writing this post my 1st target still would not be met yet. Still need about 10 more pips to go.
"Wishful thinking dies hard." Igor T.
  • #177
  • May 16, 2008 11:54am May 16, 2008 11:54am
Hey post what you think of the gbp.usd and i will do the same...let compare ideas...do you have skype?
  • #178
  • May 16, 2008 12:22pm May 16, 2008 12:22pm
  •  FxChi
  • | Joined Dec 2007 | Status: Cash Rules Everything Around Me | 749 Posts
In below chart I highlighted the candle I exited at. Still wondering about it.....

Regarding cable. Trend is obviously down and fundamentals line up with this. I see S&P, DOW, USD/JPY all rallying and it's apparent on a lot of charts USD is strengthening for now. No point in trying to understand the logic behind it but the charts don't lie. Couple this with a detoriating UK economy I think we have solid fundamentals to be overall bearish on this pair. I believe the weekly head and shoulders pattern will also complete with fundamentals lining up with technicals. Therefore, after this rally I'm looking for bear patterns on my chart. Whether it be double tops, candle stick patterns, support breaks. If it gets to 1.9700 level that should be a pretty good place to start shorting but you need to look for the confirmations.

Also looks like a lot of pairs are ranging for the moment. So my preliminary thoughts going into Monday would be to follow along cables movement with support looking for a break and I'll take that down to 1.9360 and possibly buy there (would need some sort of indecision 4 hr candle). If we're in a ranging environment the high of the support break and 1.9360 will be the range. Buy support and sell resistance. In either case 1.9360 looks like it's very obvious support now especially after this bounce. Could be fantastic if everyone thinks this level will hold and you're holding shorts from a higher level and the obvious support is broken which is very possible b/c of fundamentals.

In any case I need some time to think about the trade I took earlier. Still psychologically bummed about it. Have a good weekend.
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"Wishful thinking dies hard." Igor T.
  • #179
  • May 16, 2008 4:32pm May 16, 2008 4:32pm
Looking bullish....4 hour chart just price pushing up...be aware of the new mejor resistance levels...

What I am starting to see is dont take a trade of the bigger fibbs if they are to go against your intraday levels unless you get the confirmation price is reacting to them by having a support failure on intraday...

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in the 1 hour chart if the intraday levels hold next week then you can go long just be aware of the resistance levels...I wont short unless i have intraday lvels responding to the bigger fibbs..

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  • #180
  • May 16, 2008 4:36pm May 16, 2008 4:36pm
Also what driving the economy is this...
http://www.pfxglobal.com/gbp-usd/gbp...g-2.html#step1
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