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Help Me Establish The GbpUsd After Dinner Club

  • #21
  • Jan 28, 2007 9:35am Jan 28, 2007 9:35am
Thats true. This is a 5 minute chart. From what I know heres how I think I would look at it. Even though the consumer sentiment is only yellow it seems it move the pound in favour of the dollar. Which is was a favorable report for the dollar. I would say the high has been established at 7:20 and with it retracing after consumer sentiment report at around 10 am I would probably think I missed the retrace. This is a funny day because by 10:30am the range for the pound dollar had only been 50 pips. Which the pound since 2006 has only stayed in that range 4 times since 2006 and less then 60 nine times. I would be thinking quite a deal or probably again basing my thinking on the 9am news announcement it may go down more. Which of course it went up. Thats a good one because of so little movement up to this point.

But of course if it spiked up I would have gathered my wits and entered later off of the spike to hit a at .50 You know what I mean. Who knows maybe I would've. I shouldn't make fun of me.
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  • #22
  • Jan 28, 2007 9:37am Jan 28, 2007 9:37am
I should proof read better.
  • #23
  • Jan 28, 2007 10:27am Jan 28, 2007 10:27am
Interesting thread you started.
I had noticed originally, then stopped paying attention that there's a quick spike, maybe 5+ pips everyday at either 11am or 12pm when London closes(depending on daylight savings etc). There maybe a correlation to what you're seeing. I figured all this happens because after 11-noon, everything seems to come to a slowdown.
Maybe you're 10:30 observation becomes the limits of the range until the next London session, sometimes Asian. Guess I'll have to look.
  • #24
  • Jan 28, 2007 10:41am Jan 28, 2007 10:41am
With everthing in Forex there are patterns and variations to those patterns. I have heard the 10am and there after is a dead zone for forex from several experts. But when you look at it It may be like I said another way to get or save a few pips and maybe some time. Not going to have a perfect set up all the time but that is true with every system and every currency.
  • #25
  • Jan 28, 2007 12:11pm Jan 28, 2007 12:11pm
Here is another look at chart 7. The final range for the gbpusd that day was 70 pips. Which that has happened only 19 times of the last 280 trading days (for a 7% probability rate) making it unusually harder to trade, for me anyway. As you can see a possible entry with a target at the 50 fib level is only 15 pips minus your spread, does not make it a very good trade for me. Plus when I am trying to prove something on a 5 minute chart, well…. Lets put it this way some work better off of a 5 minute chart then I do.
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  • #26
  • Jan 28, 2007 2:31pm Jan 28, 2007 2:31pm
Quoting goodthings
Here is another look at chart 7. The final range for the gbpusd that day was 70 pips. Which that has happened only 19 times of the last 280 trading days (for a 7% probability rate) making it unusually harder to trade, for me anyway. As you can see a possible entry with a target at the 50 fib level is only 15 pips minus your spread, does not make it a very good trade for me. Plus when I am trying to prove something on a 5 minute chart, well…. Lets put it this way some work better off of a 5 minute chart then I do.
On the day, not today with hindsight, why would you not have used the spike which occurred right after 1000? Why would you have 'waited' for the spike which occurred later on? How and why would you have known or thought that it would occur?

I would have been tempted to see that first spike, then the drop after it as the 'action'.
  • #27
  • Jan 28, 2007 2:51pm Jan 28, 2007 2:51pm
Are you talking about the first spike before 10am?
Quoting moonchild
On the day, not today with hindsight, why would you not have used the spike which occurred right after 1000? Why would you have 'waited' for the spike which occurred later on? How and why would you have known or thought that it would occur?

I would have been tempted to see that first spike, then the drop after it as the 'action'.
  • #28
  • Jan 28, 2007 2:57pm Jan 28, 2007 2:57pm
I believe this is due to pivot-point traders, they are day-traders who generally give the currency some time to establish a position relative to the pivot point before placing their trades.
  • #29
  • Jan 28, 2007 3:09pm Jan 28, 2007 3:09pm
Yes that makes sence. It almost seems like a new shift came on and told the guys they were going in the wrong direction.
  • #30
  • Jan 28, 2007 6:09pm Jan 28, 2007 6:09pm
what do you have as the ma on the chart
  • #31
  • Jan 28, 2007 6:15pm Jan 28, 2007 6:15pm
Quoting TEB63
what do you have as the ma on the chart
All are EMA close

White is 5
Red is 13
Blue is 62
White that runs with the Gold is 144
Gold 169

I also look at 200 and 365
  • #32
  • Jan 28, 2007 6:35pm Jan 28, 2007 6:35pm
anything else i need to know/?



you have an intersting verse
  • #33
  • Jan 29, 2007 11:11am Jan 29, 2007 11:11am
Goodthings

Todays low came earlier than the daily time you have been looking at lately... I see this really seems to be because there was no real news reports. Daily low or high might average earlier on days with no news. So today around 9:15 or so instead of 10:15
  • #34
  • Jan 29, 2007 11:29am Jan 29, 2007 11:29am
days low

Quoting Tiki Trader
Goodthings
The lows high are not always going to be after 10am. This has been a slow day with the range being 64 pips about half the average of 133 pips for the gbpusd. I will be keeping an eye on it . As I mentioned in another post the pound has only moved less then 70 pips nine times from all 2006 until now. I believe it is 9 it is on an earlier post.


Todays low came earlier than the daily time you have been looking at lately... I see this really seems to be because there was no real news reports. Daily low or high might average earlier on days with no news. So today around 9:15 or so instead of 10:15
  • #35
  • Jan 31, 2007 3:30am Jan 31, 2007 3:30am
This is monday's chart and after 10 am there was no real signifcant price action of high, low, or retracement around that period.Range for the day was 64 pips which the pound dollar has only done that 19 times (7%) from present date back to all of 2006.
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  • #36
  • Jan 31, 2007 3:48am Jan 31, 2007 3:48am
Here is Tuesday's chart showing that at 10am it was within 8 pips of daily low at 11:15am . Again not trying to establish anything magical about the exact time of 10am. Only that again it could be used as a mile marker that the market is about to exhaust itself and if a person is exiting his trades on a daily basis he can give this time frame some thought. Then begin to look at catching some pips on the rebound or retracement.
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  • #37
  • Jan 31, 2007 3:48am Jan 31, 2007 3:48am
Hi Goodthing,
Is it 10AM est or gmt?
  • #38
  • Jan 31, 2007 3:56am Jan 31, 2007 3:56am
Eastern
  • #39
  • Jan 31, 2007 5:42am Jan 31, 2007 5:42am
Goodthings:

I was told by a former bank trader that options expire each weekday at 10:00 USET. As a result, he said you can expect "strange" things to happen during the 09:30-10:30 USET period. This may explain what you have been observing.

I consider myself an active-swing trader; but most of my trades are intraday; and the 09:30-10:30 USET period has been one of my favorite "fishing holes." I sometimes catch a trade in one direction leading up to the 10:00 USET option expiration and a trade in the opposite direction after that time. The pip movements during this hour or so are not usually what most of us would call significant, but it has been a profitable time period for me so far.

Congratulations on recognizing and sharing what may be a very helpful observation to a lot of traders browsing this forum.

...\larry.bye
  • #40
  • Jan 31, 2007 5:55am Jan 31, 2007 5:55am
My goal is to arrange my schedule where I can begin to put this to work for me. If a person can get a handle on certain tendancies on how the market moves he could up his lot size for smaller moves but more profitable. To me when I see retracement probabilities like this
23.6 Fib level has been retraced to 272 out of 280 days for a 97.1% probability of retracement to that level after the days high and low are established.
38.2 Fib level has been retraced to 241 out of 280 days for a 86.1% probability of retracement to that level after the days high and low are established.
50.0 Fib level has been retraced to 215 out of 280 days for a 76.8% probability of retracement to that level after the days high and low are established.
61.8 Fib level has been retraced to 175 out of 280 days for a 62.5% probability of retracement to that level after the days high and low are established.
It makes for lower risk trades. As usual the market is the market and like any business it is one thing to know good business principles and another to put them into practice.
(not just know about them)sound business practices
Quoting dlftrader
Goodthings:

I was told by a former bank trader that options expire each weekday at 10:00 USET. As a result, he said you can expect "strange" things to happen during the 09:30-10:30 USET period. This may explain what you have been observing.

I consider myself an active-swing trader; but most of my trades are intraday; and the 09:30-10:30 USET period has been one of my favorite "fishing holes." I sometimes catch a trade in one direction leading up to the 10:00 USET option expiration and a trade in the opposite direction after that time. The pip movements during this hour or so are not usually what most of us would call significant, but it has been a profitable time period for me so far.

Congratulations on recognizing and sharing what may be a very helpful observation to a lot of traders browsing this forum.

...\larry.bye
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