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4 Hour Strategy (MACD)

  • #14,861
  • May 16, 2008 1:04am May 16, 2008 1:04am
Quoting maxster
No trades for 4H MACD due to lag.

But how about understanding what price is doing therefore entering a long trade at the lower triangle extreme? Long from 1.5430 - positioned at BE for an upside breakout. Maybe the cow comes alive today and go long - I have my huge bucket ready for milking. :>))
Well done Maxster! I still want to learn your advanced entries, although I haven't got a complete understanding.
Look at my 1 hour chart, there is nothing tells me at the point 1.5430 that the price may go up, except maybe a spinner, but even it comes higher.
I know that you have a newborn baby - my sincere congratulations!!! But I would like to ask you, could you please make a document, where you describe the sequence of your action on one trade example. I think there are many traders who would welcome this idea.
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  • #14,862
  • May 16, 2008 1:05am May 16, 2008 1:05am
[quote=juang;2003681]
Quoting ira
That was almost perfect trade yesterday on U/C. Doji with a tail through 21 and close ablove it. I wish I had a signal earlier to have good SL. But my signal came with this big bullish candle which almost run to the previous support, so no deal was for me here.[/quote
,do you mean resistance ira,yes you are right don't open long near resistance,but for me now usd/chf make macd patter n lower high,nice signal sell with sl =1.0589 (resistance) and tp =1.0525,op=1.0560.thanks ira
Oh yes, resistance of course, sorry!
  • #14,863
  • May 16, 2008 1:27am May 16, 2008 1:27am
My GBP and Euro.
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  • #14,864
  • May 16, 2008 2:10am May 16, 2008 2:10am
Quoting maxster
In order to trade successfully in the long run you must be able to see what price is doing and be in sync with it.

When price is coiling in and ranging you can pretty much throw the MAs away because they will be flat and meaningless.

Look at my chart and see how the inner center price fibs are pulling price in. Ask yourself at what point after that bullish up move on Monday has price confimed without doubt that price is ranging? Proably after the 3rd circle after price moved back into the inner price levels.

So from that 3rd point on I would be careful about taking long trades at the upper extreme and careful of shorts at the lower extremes. And also will be careful of taking any trades inside of the center price levels because don't know which way price may go.

Hope that makes sense.
Hi MAXTER! How often do you use PIVOT Points calculations? I see on your chart EURUSD 1.5442 "Intraday Short" , but you bought on the bottom of triangle at the price 1.5430! How did you take desicion to buy EURUSD 1.5430 if you have different signals on PP calculations and triangle?
THINK LIKE A FUNDAMENTALIST; TRADE LIKE A TECHNICIAN
  • #14,865
  • May 16, 2008 2:12am May 16, 2008 2:12am
Quoting feodras
Phillip and the guys,

I shorted the Eur Usd on the close of the 16:00 candle. A strong bear candle closed below the twenty one ema and there was a zero break on the MACD on the four hour chart. The equity was too much on the 4 hour so i decided to trade the engulfish bearish candle on the one hour chart that found sound support at the 200 ema (the blue ema) on the hour chart. What are your views on this trade? I plan to exit 1.5365 or a little before that.
I see no supp/res lines drawn. You must have them on your chart. It will keep you out of bad trades and confirm good ones
  • #14,866
  • May 16, 2008 3:45am May 16, 2008 3:45am
Quoting maxster
In order to trade successfully in the long run you must be able to see what price is doing and be in sync with it.

When price is coiling in and ranging you can pretty much throw the MAs away because they will be flat and meaningless.

Look at my chart and see how the inner center price fibs are pulling price in. Ask yourself at what point after that bullish up move on Monday has price confimed without doubt that price is ranging? Proably after the 3rd circle after price moved back into the inner price levels.

So from that 3rd point on I would be careful about taking long trades at the upper extreme and careful of shorts at the lower extremes. And also will be careful of taking any trades inside of the center price levels because don't know which way price may go.

Hope that makes sense.
good view, I think fib can plays an important role in consolidation area
Plan your trades and trade your plans
  • #14,867
  • Edited 6:19am May 16, 2008 5:54am | Edited 6:19am
EurUsd
I have taken the odds on with that tail again. Lower high away from top TL. Resistance around the 89sma for the 3rd time. This is a positional trade looking for the bottom TL breakout.

Entered 50% at 1.5472.
Stoploss 1.5509
TP will see what happens at bottom TL

Will open another 50% after 25pips gain and set both to entry level risking only the 2nd 50%

Edit
Open 2nd 50% after 24pips gain and set stoploss to both at entry level.

Even if I am taken out at entry level I only risk 26pips(got filled at 1.5446) on 50% of the position but it gives me the oppertunity to be part of a breakout to the bottom if it happens.

I know that 26pips stoploss might be to little but lets see what happens

Conclusion
I have done some back homework and come to the conclusion that this method of opening 50% and after 25pips gain a second 50% position is risky because stoploss is onlt that 25pips away. I will return to my original approach of opening full position and close 50% after 20-25pips gain and use the gain on the 1st as a stoploss on the 2nd giving a BE if taken out. That helps on 50% remaining to make the stoploss wider to give it a fair chance.

Edit
Both positions closed at entry level with total loss of -13pips

NOTE:
Ignore this approach as the volitality needs more than 25pips stop. Openining 1Lot and after 25gain close 50% and use the pips gained as a stoploss on the remaning 50% is a far better approach.

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  • #14,868
  • May 16, 2008 6:13am May 16, 2008 6:13am
hi,this is how i see eu.dont forget that we are still in the down trend
edit:i see phillip's post after i posted this.the same picture.sorry
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  • #14,869
  • May 16, 2008 6:30am May 16, 2008 6:30am
I did not do a thorough backtest but it looks like when the price stays at the 365ema it seems to go in ranging mode. Can someone do some testing on other pairs and see if their is any truth in it. If so than I will come with an approach as to how to trade during these times. Also what were the patterns involve in the range. Triangle or channel. If it broke out was it with or against the move before going into range mode. How long and number of candles was the range etc. What was the width of the range more or less in pips. Will be interesting to know that.
  • #14,870
  • May 16, 2008 6:39am May 16, 2008 6:39am
Quoting Phillip Nel
I did not do a thorough backtest but it looks like when the price stays at the 365ema it seems to go in ranging mode. Can someone do some testing on other pairs and see if their is any truth in it. If so than I will come with an approach as to how to trade during these times. Also what were the patterns involve in the range. Triangle or channel. If it broke out was it with or against the move before going into range mode. How long and number of candles was the range etc. What was the width of the range more or less in pips. Will be interesting to know that.

If i recall James16's observations of the 365ema were that the price didnt stay at that moving average very long. One could conclude therefore that if it does, then it may well range.
  • #14,871
  • May 16, 2008 6:42am May 16, 2008 6:42am
Euro.365
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  • #14,872
  • May 16, 2008 6:55am May 16, 2008 6:55am
Quoting napeharm
If i recall James16's observations of the 365ema were that the price didnt stay at that moving average very long. One could conclude therefore that if it does, then it may well range.
Will do some backtesting.
  • #14,873
  • May 16, 2008 6:58am May 16, 2008 6:58am
Back testing of the effects of the 365 are not difficult to observe. Largely because the ranging around them does not occur really very often. The question might be more to do with how soon can this kind of ranging because of the 365ema be identified and then deciding what to do about it. In other words more allowances being made for volatilty like we have seen recently and a more flexible approach taken.(If there is one)
  • #14,874
  • May 16, 2008 7:10am May 16, 2008 7:10am
Quoting napeharm
Back testing of the effects of the 365 are not difficult to observe. Largely because the ranging around them does not occur really very often. The question might be more to do with how soon can this kind of ranging because of the 365ema be identified and then deciding what to do about it. In other words more allowances being made for volatilty like we have seen recently and a more flexible approach taken.(If there is one)
That is what I am trying to establish. To recognize the situation and be able to have a plan to trade it should it develope as a range.
  • #14,875
  • May 16, 2008 7:12am May 16, 2008 7:12am
Euro. I had a quick whizz back through the history from 2001 to the present to highlight these congestion areas. I have posted my template of that. It might not be exhaustive but shows the main culprits if anyone wants to take a look for a shortcut to backtesting this.Sometimes the ranging involves the 89 and the 200.
Attached File(s)
File Type: tpl 365ema.tpl   6 KB | 544 downloads
  • #14,876
  • May 16, 2008 7:15am May 16, 2008 7:15am
Quoting Phillip Nel
That is what I am trying to establish. To recognize the situation and be able to have a plan to trade it should it develope as a range.

The challenge is that this situation creeps up on us, and before you know it some mistakes have been made, unless someone has spotted it first!

Whether they are partic. criterion leading to this i dont know. I havent seen any as yet. But i will give it a look over the weekend, it doesnt actually occur very often. Perhaps reference to other time frames might help, we shall see.

Certainly at the moment the Euro is stuck between the 21 and 89 on the daily, but i will check these things later. More minds working on this the better, it there is anything conclusive to be found.

I counted only 17 (18 if you include now) times actually. The ranging varies in severity and range size. This is subject to the history i have from MIG which has some glitches in it, but gives some idea of how unusuall overall this ranging is.
  • #14,877
  • May 16, 2008 7:34am May 16, 2008 7:34am
I've got some statistics as for TC setups that may be interesting for you. But I must notify that at the moment the results are very preliminary cos only 19 TC were found in those 60 setups on EURUSD during last 2 months which I put into database (which is too little to call results reliable). When I gather more data through demo-trading and backtesting I'll recalculate those indici.
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Attached File(s)
File Type: pdf EURO_Stats_TC.pdf   59 KB | 972 downloads
  • #14,878
  • May 16, 2008 7:41am May 16, 2008 7:41am
Yorik; Great stuff, i shall enjoy leafing through the pdf over the weekend. I dont know if anyone has collected or processed stats on the system as yet. I havent seen any. I know from my studies of Woodies cci that people keep stats of the signals they take and their results as a matter of course. Here though we have fewer signals but certainly there is potentially info to collect and process for sure.Thanks for that.
  • #14,879
  • May 16, 2008 7:54am May 16, 2008 7:54am
Quoting Yorik
I've got some statistics as for TC setups that may be interesting for you. But I must notify that at the moment the results are very preliminary cos only 19 TC were found in those 60 setups on EURUSD during last 2 months which I put into database (which is too little to call results reliable). When I gather more data through demo-trading and backtesting I'll recalculate those indici.

Very usefull. thanks for the effort
  • #14,880
  • May 16, 2008 7:55am May 16, 2008 7:55am
Euro;I have marked out the 4 hr 365ema congestion areas onto the daily chart and the 89sma from the daily certainly plays some part in this. How and what i dont know but its a start. It does depend also how the 365ema 4hr congestion is defined unfortunately. Sometimes there are small clusters of ranging, other times broader areas, all of which come under the heading of 'ranging and congestion'. So, the 89 daily sma might have a part in this. I found another case, actually 4,where the price had fallen between the 21ema and 89sma like now. Yorik would probably good on this!


Another observation about the daily 89sma is that there are times when it seems to cross diagonally though the congestion area, whilst the price is trying to make its way in the opposite direction.
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