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4 Hour Strategy (MACD)

  • #14,841
  • Edited 7:59am May 15, 2008 7:31am | Edited 7:59am
Shorter time frames out today for me. The Euro short was a tinker and i lost -16 on that one after the pin. The pin worked out in the end but somewhat later. GBP pin short was better +13 and +19 down to the 1.400 support area. Lots of strong news so i will wait for that.
  • #14,842
  • May 15, 2008 8:49am May 15, 2008 8:49am
Quoting Phillip Nel
Candle closed with long tail. Difficult to set a stoploss as the candle does not hav a body. I will not risk very much so I will enter with stoploss set to 30 with half a lot only and add the other half later if a chance is given on MACD signal.

Edit
Will add other 50% after 25pips gain on first 50% and set both to BE

Another way is to enter on a 38% retracement with 50% and the other 50% when price goes 10+ pips below the previouse candle

Remember, this is taking the odds on purely on that tail.

Take profit at this stage around bottom TL 1.5430

Edit
It is pulling back towards the 89sma. Lets see if the 89sma is going to be resistance or not. My stoploss is at 1.5507.

Edit
Stoploss taken out. Will wait to see if it goes below the low of previouse bar and will enter with other 50% if so.

Edit
Re-enter with remaining 50% at 1.5486 and set stoploss to 1.5519(Not 30 but 33. I made a mistake to set stoploss at 30 on the first entry. One of my rules I violated never to set stoploss at equals of 5). Set to trailing stop of 25.

Edit
+20 pips reached. Set to BE and 25trailing stop.

Edit
BE taken out on 2nd 50%. Average loss (-30 and 0)/2= -15pips

Way to much up and down movement going on.

Afterthoughts
As you can see I entered only half a position in the beginning allready showing uncertainty. The candle did not have a body therefore as I said it was difficult to set a stoploss. Therefore my decision to enter half and if it retrace and take my stop out I can enter again when it goes down honouring the tail. It is only my way to manage a position when uncertain.
Phillip, if you want to trade pin bar, sl should be set at 61.8% of the tail which is 1.5524.
Plan your trades and trade your plans
  • #14,843
  • May 15, 2008 8:57am May 15, 2008 8:57am
GbpUsd is giving a TC. There are however to many tails up and down. I will sit out this one.
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  • #14,844
  • May 15, 2008 9:20am May 15, 2008 9:20am
I've entered short from 1.9439.
SL 1.9478,
TP 1.9404 (above daily TL).

Pending order (SellLimit) at 1.9456 (its previous bar open price), SL and TP almost the same.
  • #14,845
  • May 15, 2008 9:40am May 15, 2008 9:40am
Quoting Phillip Nel
Look like it will take out 2nd 50% at BE.
hello Phil

why did you enter here on the Long side at all?
I don't see any MACD signal.
So what was this trade based upon?
  • #14,846
  • May 15, 2008 10:02am May 15, 2008 10:02am
If you need pips trade the lower timeframes.

But taking trades on the 4H MACD right now is like trying to milk a dead cow - wait for the breakout.
  • #14,847
  • May 15, 2008 10:05am May 15, 2008 10:05am
Quoting RemingtonTJ
hello Phil

why did you enter here on the Long side at all?
I don't see any MACD signal.
So what was this trade based upon?
Post 14832 has got the whole trade as it developed. That was the second 50% short that was closed at BE.
  • #14,848
  • May 15, 2008 11:00am May 15, 2008 11:00am
There is divergence on the EURGBP. Does anyone trade this pair?
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  • #14,849
  • May 15, 2008 1:47pm May 15, 2008 1:47pm
Quoting Hookem28
There is divergence on the EURGBP. Does anyone trade this pair?
I see 2 Hanging Men in a row but SL would be very big
  • #14,850
  • May 15, 2008 2:35pm May 15, 2008 2:35pm
You're right Remington. It wouldn't be a huge SL in other pairs, but definitely would be in EURGBP.
I haven't even done the backtesting to see if Phillip's MACD strategy is profitable with this pair. Just noticed the divergence and evening star could lead to a trend reversal. Also the candle closed slightly below the trading range. It looks to have a good RR ratio, but I don't understand this pair well enough to trade it.
  • #14,851
  • May 15, 2008 2:50pm May 15, 2008 2:50pm
USDCHF

I took this long trade
MACD TC+
Hammer + Bullish Engulfing Pattern
MAvgs provided good support

any opinions?

Let's see if it works (not so far), but maybe there will be a big breakout to the upside

Till
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  • #14,852
  • May 15, 2008 5:11pm May 15, 2008 5:11pm
Phillip and the guys,

I shorted the Eur Usd on the close of the 16:00 candle. A strong bear candle closed below the twenty one ema and there was a zero break on the MACD on the four hour chart. The equity was too much on the 4 hour so i decided to trade the engulfish bearish candle on the one hour chart that found sound support at the 200 ema (the blue ema) on the hour chart. What are your views on this trade? I plan to exit 1.5365 or a little before that.
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  • #14,853
  • May 15, 2008 6:08pm May 15, 2008 6:08pm
Hi yes i took same trade @1.0575 so i am in the minus 10 pips so far but also on the 4 hr macd close
Let see what was ur entry??



Quoting RemingtonTJ
USDCHF

I took this long trade
MACD TC+
Hammer + Bullish Engulfing Pattern
MAvgs provided good support

any opinions?

Let's see if it works (not so far), but maybe there will be a big breakout to the upside

Till
  • #14,854
  • May 15, 2008 6:56pm May 15, 2008 6:56pm
Quoting Hookem28
There is divergence on the EURGBP. Does anyone trade this pair?
Sometimes. Although I generally stick to the 4 majors.

Decent divergence though.
  • #14,855
  • May 15, 2008 7:32pm May 15, 2008 7:32pm
Quoting feodras
Phillip and the guys,

I shorted the Eur Usd on the close of the 16:00 candle. A strong bear candle closed below the twenty one ema and there was a zero break on the MACD on the four hour chart. The equity was too much on the 4 hour so i decided to trade the engulfish bearish candle on the one hour chart that found sound support at the 200 ema (the blue ema) on the hour chart. What are your views on this trade? I plan to exit 1.5365 or a little before that.

There appears to be a rising support line (if you join the the previous bottoms) that may keep the Eu from going down further.
  • #14,856
  • May 15, 2008 11:47pm May 15, 2008 11:47pm
Maxster is right, E/U and G/U are in triangles now, so there are no trades for me. I'm waiting for breakouts, maybe today, maybe not.
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  • #14,857
  • May 15, 2008 11:54pm May 15, 2008 11:54pm
That was almost perfect trade yesterday on U/C. Doji with a tail through 21 and close ablove it. I wish I had a signal earlier to have good SL. But my signal came with this big bullish candle which almost run to the previous support, so no deal was for me here.
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  • #14,858
  • May 16, 2008 12:10am May 16, 2008 12:10am
Quoting feodras
Phillip and the guys,

I shorted the Eur Usd on the close of the 16:00 candle. A strong bear candle closed below the twenty one ema and there was a zero break on the MACD on the four hour chart. The equity was too much on the 4 hour so i decided to trade the engulfish bearish candle on the one hour chart that found sound support at the 200 ema (the blue ema) on the hour chart. What are your views on this trade? I plan to exit 1.5365 or a little before that.
In order to trade successfully in the long run you must be able to see what price is doing and be in sync with it.

When price is coiling in and ranging you can pretty much throw the MAs away because they will be flat and meaningless.

Look at my chart and see how the inner center price fibs are pulling price in. Ask yourself at what point after that bullish up move on Monday has price confimed without doubt that price is ranging? Proably after the 3rd circle after price moved back into the inner price levels.

So from that 3rd point on I would be careful about taking long trades at the upper extreme and careful of shorts at the lower extremes. And also will be careful of taking any trades inside of the center price levels because don't know which way price may go.

Hope that makes sense.
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  • #14,859
  • May 16, 2008 12:34am May 16, 2008 12:34am
Quoting ira
Maxster is right, E/U and G/U are in triangles now, so there are no trades for me. I'm waiting for breakouts, maybe today, maybe not.
No trades for 4H MACD due to lag.

But how about understanding what price is doing therefore entering a long trade at the lower triangle extreme? Long from 1.5430 - positioned at BE for an upside breakout. Maybe the cow comes alive today and go long - I have my huge bucket ready for milking. :>))
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  • #14,860
  • May 16, 2008 12:39am May 16, 2008 12:39am
[quote=ira;2003637]That was almost perfect trade yesterday on U/C. Doji with a tail through 21 and close ablove it. I wish I had a signal earlier to have good SL. But my signal came with this big bullish candle which almost run to the previous support, so no deal was for me here.[/quote
,do you mean resistance ira,yes you are right don't open long near resistance,but for me now usd/chf make macd patter n lower high,nice signal sell with sl =1.0589 (resistance) and tp =1.0525,op=1.0560.thanks ira
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