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  • #41
  • May 15, 2008 5:00am May 15, 2008 5:00am
Sweet take Billy! I'll be frequenting your thread. I'm actually short off the most recent 50% fib on AUD right now.

Regards,
C

Quoting BillyRayValentine
Heres a recap of the trades I posted yesterday (before they occurred unless specified):
These are the MAX number of pips you could have gained so far, but not to say they can continue, as I believe a couple of these will

USD/CAD:
+76 pips from .9986 or
+90 from .9970

AUD/USD:
+100 pips

EUR/JPY:
+80 pips

and GBP/USD:
+136 pips (this one was already in progress at the time of my post)

+406 pips total at max, not to say exits would have been different. Like eg I'm still holding a little piece of CAD and GBP
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  • #42
  • May 15, 2008 5:05am May 15, 2008 5:05am
Quoting ciscoguy
Sweet take Billy! I'll be frequenting your thread. I'm actually short off the most recent 50% fib on AUD right now.

Regards,
C
Good move! That was a pretty obvious one. I'm pissed I didn't take it.

GBP's fade on the same would have given +50 by now.
  • #43
  • May 15, 2008 5:13am May 15, 2008 5:13am
billy what do u see forming today with the aud/usd
  • #44
  • May 15, 2008 5:17am May 15, 2008 5:17am
I've been doing well off that EURJPY top as well. I've got a fairly large order off 162.90 right now that's doing well. I'm hoping to make my daily money goal before NY opens. So far, it looks good!


Regards,
C

Quoting BillyRayValentine
Good move! That was a pretty obvious one. I'm pissed I didn't take it.

GBP's fade on the same would have given +50 by now.
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  • #45
  • May 15, 2008 5:27am May 15, 2008 5:27am
Quoting Mary Pippins
That's great stuff, do you use PA and particular time frames?

Btw there is another pin forming right now on the EURUSD on the 4h TF, what you reckon about that one?
Not sure about EURUSD pin. It is bouncing off of the lower portion of resistance. In hindsight I feel I should have shorted earlier. Again I'm not a huge fan of getting into anything after it has already made a 75 pip move like on pin bars. Pin bars can be reliable of course, but these levels are more reliable. News, etc, can stir things up and cause a failure. The entry point can tend to be ambiguous with pin bars and I try not to let anything go against me to a point where I dont know where to call it quits. Thats why I lean towards these. Like the AUD entry I was able to hit to the exact pip or reversal today. Harder to do that in other scenarios.
  • #46
  • May 15, 2008 5:32am May 15, 2008 5:32am
Quoting Mkhan6
billy what do u see forming today with the aud/usd
oh man am I getting paid for this? jk

not sure leaning towards consolidation. Nothing really remarkable in its immediate path.

if anything maybe a push higher, but there's a lot of news this am so hard to say for sure
  • #47
  • May 15, 2008 5:51am May 15, 2008 5:51am
Billy, I'd guess the AUD will hit about .9723 before retracing. What's your take?


C

Quoting BillyRayValentine
oh man am I getting paid for this? jk

not sure leaning towards consolidation. Nothing really remarkable in its immediate path.

if anything maybe a push higher, but there's a lot of news this am so hard to say for sure
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  • #48
  • May 15, 2008 5:59am May 15, 2008 5:59am
Quoting ciscoguy
Billy, I'd guess the AUD will hit about .9723 before retracing. What's your take?


C
.9723? Not that sure I'm not really a position trader. If I had to guess though, if it did keep moving up that far, yeah around there......I would target .9710.

Thats just based on a 1.618 extension of the past few weeks blocks of consolidation from low to high.
  • #49
  • May 15, 2008 6:07am May 15, 2008 6:07am
HAHAHA! That was a typo. I MEANT .9273! I was speaking about the current swing.

Quoting BillyRayValentine
.9723? Not that sure I'm not really a position trader. If I had to guess though, if it did keep moving up that far, yeah around there......I would target .9710.

Thats just based on a 1.618 extension of the past few weeks blocks of consolidation from low to high.
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  • #50
  • May 15, 2008 6:19am May 15, 2008 6:19am
Great thread. I'm glad to see straight talk about price action and not a bunch of stuff about lagging indicators. (Zero lag indicators still lag.) I use a few moving averages and fibs (with S&R of course) I think alot of people have a hard time believing it really is that simple. I'll be glad to share a few charts from time to time. So what times do you generally trade? Thanks again!
Energy and persistence conquer all things! Ben Franklin
  • #51
  • May 15, 2008 6:28am May 15, 2008 6:28am
Quoting Iron-man
Great thread. I'm glad to see straight talk about price action and not a bunch of stuff about lagging indicators. (Zero lag indicators still lag.) I use a few moving averages and fibs (with S&R of course) I think alot of people have a hard time believing it really is that simple. I'll be glad to share a few charts from time to time. So what times do you generally trade? Thanks again!
thanks iron man.....usually from 4:00am to 1:00pm new york
  • #52
  • May 15, 2008 6:34am May 15, 2008 6:34am
Quoting ciscoguy
HAHAHA! That was a typo. I MEANT .9273! I was speaking about the current swing.
yeah definitely. if it breaks .9290 you have a nice fade right there. still might be able to nab a few pips on another bounce of .9290, depending on the conditions at the time.

if you're short right now, its a little difficult to say what's going to happen next. I would just trail as its sometimes hard to target that move. If I were you I would have targeted .9340, and kept a little on just in case. I have a feeling today will be pretty quiet, unless the news and Bernacke rattle the market.
  • #53
  • Edited 8:16am May 15, 2008 7:25am | Edited 8:16am
GBP is coming up on 1.9390 -1.9395 again, where you might get a little push. looking at the current price action I'm weary, but just a heads up. not 90%

if not if 1.9364 area is seen again its a lot more probable.

Bernacke is on in a few so I'd probably just wait and see what develops. I dont like trading during speeches unless I'm already in something a decent amount in the money

either way price might or might not make it down there
  • #54
  • May 15, 2008 8:44am May 15, 2008 8:44am
This is a great thread. Would it be possible to see some more examples of where you would place stops etc. I have looked at this sort of stuff before but have always tended to wait for prica action to confirm but as you said, this can sometimes lead to price moving away substantially from the area before you can get in and then you are more open to stop running etc after taking your position.
Maybe we could post what we see as strong areas and say how we would try and trade these and then you could maybe give some advice?
  • #55
  • May 15, 2008 1:29pm May 15, 2008 1:29pm
Cuuld be a nice long trade on gbp/chf

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  • #56
  • Edited 7:58pm May 15, 2008 7:27pm | Edited 7:58pm
Long USD/JPY at 104.00 (104.04 - 104.96)

This is playing off of a bouce of what has already been very strong former support and resistance, now support, if price can move that far. Also, its now a .50 retracement of the main wave; double whammy. You should atleast be able to scramble some quick cash on this one, if not set up for a longer dollar bull move.
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  • #57
  • May 15, 2008 7:42pm May 15, 2008 7:42pm
Quoting ciscoguy
I've been doing well off that EURJPY top as well. I've got a fairly large order off 162.90 right now that's doing well. I'm hoping to make my daily money goal before NY opens. So far, it looks good!


Regards,
C
You should be up about +100 pips on this one, +140 max; I think it should go further. I was looking to reenter a short at 162.25 area, but I dont know if its going to see it and continue on its nosedive...could even get stopped out even if it does. Its bouncing off of former support right now (also would have been a good trade for a long). If it can break it you're right into the 106's.
  • #58
  • May 15, 2008 7:45pm May 15, 2008 7:45pm
Euro Swiss is looking like a sell!
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Energy and persistence conquer all things! Ben Franklin
  • #59
  • May 15, 2008 7:51pm May 15, 2008 7:51pm
Quoting Iron-man
Euro Swiss is looking like a sell!
good call......looks like it might be worth a shot......I get a little weary of this pair sometimes but based on current eur and chf positioning it looks pretty damn good

USDCHF could bounce off of its recent high at 106.00, but there is more resistance at 1.0624 (first post).....possibly could break this, but we'll see where it goes.

I know I started this thread for a reason
thx IronMan
  • #60
  • May 15, 2008 7:56pm May 15, 2008 7:56pm
Quoting BillyRayValentine
good call......looks like it might be worth a shot......I get a little weary of this pair sometimes but based on current eur and chf positioning it looks pretty damn good

I know I started this thread for a reason
thx IronMan
Good thread Billy. A good learning post is what I am seeing here. People can see the basics and how easy it is to just wait for the good ones and not chase those pips.

No crazy indicators, just basic trading that has been around for decades. Good thread man.
Que
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