StewartR - I want my trading to be boring. | Page 8 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

Trading is sometimes boring, what you do while waiting to trade? 3 replies

Does Trading Become Less... Boring? 4 replies

Simple Boring Daily Trading 5 replies

Questions to Analyze a Trading Plan (boring bit that actually makes you profitable) 0 replies

StewartR - I want my trading to be boring. 4 replies

Attachments: StewartR - I want my trading to be boring.
Exit Attachments

StewartR - I want my trading to be boring.

  • #141
  • May 8, 2008 4:31am May 8, 2008 4:31am
Hi FXTrader,
2 comments.

1. Nice car in your avatar. (Better than a cartoon character!).


2. (I know you know this, so I am not directly replying to you....I am just getting my thoughts down in e-paper).



There are always trends happening. My 4 hour charts are showing trends 'everywhere' but my definition of an "A" trend has daily and 4 hour in sync with each other. So my system is eliminating me from trading until the world agrees on which direction things should go.

On another note: I have been papertrading shorter term (30 minute charts) on the GU; and there are plenty of short term trends (50 to 100 pips) to be had. I'm not trading live because I haven't dotted all the I's and crossed all the T's but I do like the idea of taking and closing trades every day (no overnight stuff).

I can see myself continuing to use my trend following system (which only takes a few minutes every 4 hours to execute) and supplementing it with specialising in shorter term moves on just the GU.

Why the GU?
No reason....I just like it.

Have a good day.
Stewart
  • #142
  • May 8, 2008 5:19am May 8, 2008 5:19am
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...&postcount=104
  • #143
  • May 8, 2008 9:32am May 8, 2008 9:32am
Thanks for the link
  • #144
  • May 10, 2008 9:00pm May 10, 2008 9:00pm
Hi Stewart.
Its Great To See The Amount Of Thought You Have Applied To This Method. I Have Been Following It For A While.
Two Questions, 1... Is Your Broker Giving Satisfactory Service. I Only Use Them For Demo Trading. And Live Trade With Another.
And 2... Do You Wait For Stocs To Cross Either The 30 Or 70 Line, Before Entering.
I Hope You Keep This Thread Alive, There May Not Be Many Posters, But You Have A Lot Of Viewers.
Cheers Graham.
Also An Ozzie.
  • #145
  • May 12, 2008 1:47am May 12, 2008 1:47am
Hi Graham,
Thanks for your post.
I use IBFX for this system and I have been happy with them.
I use FXSOLUTIONS for a shorter term system and I am happy with them too. Sometimes the spread where news is coming out gets large.....but that seems to be true of all brokers. Overall I think the brokers do a great job and offer us a service that allows us to play fx.

Re- stochastic. Yes. I like to see the stoch at extreme. Which for means means less than 30 or greater than 70 on the 4 hour chart.

Overall the stoch is not that important. Neither are the moving averages. The stoch is just "my way" of defining if the pull back has go 'far enough'.

THe moving averages are "my way" of determining the trend.

I dont pay much attention to the indicator settings......because the indicators wont make me money. What wins is the "concept" of entering on a pull back, in the direction of the trend.

Good to speak with another Aussie.
Best wishes
Stewart

Quoting Janegra
Hi Stewart.
Its Great To See The Amount Of Thought You Have Applied To This Method. I Have Been Following It For A While.
Two Questions, 1... Is Your Broker Giving Satisfactory Service. I Only Use Them For Demo Trading. And Live Trade With Another.
And 2... Do You Wait For Stocs To Cross Either The 30 Or 70 Line, Before Entering.
I Hope You Keep This Thread Alive, There May Not Be Many Posters, But You Have A Lot Of Viewers.
Cheers Graham.
Also An Ozzie.
  • #146
  • May 12, 2008 6:33am May 12, 2008 6:33am
Why keep it simple?

Because (as Mark Douglas says in Trading in the Zone) "regardless of how much evidence you gather to support acting or not acting on a trade, it still only takes one trader somewhere in the world to negate the validity of any if not all of your evidence. The point is 'why bother'! If the market is offering you a legitimate edge , determine the risk and take the trade".


I love that statement.
I can 'think' the market will be going up.
I can 'wish' the market will go up.
I can place my order and 'hope' the market goes up.
But it only takes a single trader with enough commitment, to get the price going the other way.

Its impossible to 'know' what's going to happen. So find an edge, take the trades, don't take the outcome personally.......(you are not a genius if you have a winning trade, and you are not a moron if you have a losing trade), and play it as a numbers game.

In the meantime - I'm still waiting for this system to identify strong trends and get me back in. But I'd rather be out waiting to get in than be in wishing I was out! :-)

Good trading to all.
Stewart
  • #147
  • May 12, 2008 8:46am May 12, 2008 8:46am
Your patience is awsome, i am following the same strat, i have decided to take the next 20 A trades. If my capital grows from these trades, i will then take the next 20 A trades with a higher stake, i will keep doing this as long as i keep compounding profits, i believe that is the way forward to grow a business.
  • #148
  • May 13, 2008 1:31am May 13, 2008 1:31am
Here's an A trade I have taken.
NZDUSD
4 hour trend down
4 hour price action (pin bar)
4 hour stochastic (right up near 70)

Daily trend down
1 hour trend down

That's meets the definition of an A trade. I'm short.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: nzdusd1.gif Size: 18 KB
  • #149
  • May 13, 2008 1:37am May 13, 2008 1:37am
There's a lot of markets that now have the daily and 4 hour trends lining up. I missed a trade last night because I was sleeping; but I'm staying patient.


Re my NZDUSD trade: anything can happen with this trade. It might win, it might lose, it might go to the moon, it might jump through my stop, it might touch my stop by 1 pip and then continue on to be a winner without me on it.

I cannot control anything the market does.....so I am leaving all expectations at the door and I"ll just 'let' the market unfold as it does.
Good trading to all.

Regards
Stewart
  • #150
  • May 13, 2008 7:49am May 13, 2008 7:49am
Closed the NZDUSD trade - 1:1.

What I did well:
1. Waited for criteria to be met - placed the trade.

What I could have done better.
1. I broke the rules. I gave this trade more room to move than the system would dictate and therefore I had to reduce my position size.

So my profit was not 2% because I fiddled with my stop and therefore fiddled with my bet size.

So the system worked well.
But Stewart did not function properly.

....................................................
Analysis of why I did not honor the rules.
1. Perhaps I still dont fully trust the probabilities.
2. I looked at this trade with undue importance. If I am going to trade this system for the next 20 years, what difference does any individual trade really make?
3. I wanted this trade to be a winner, so I tried to do everything I could to give it a chance to win.....and in the process I cut my profits, (by increasing the pip value of my stop but not increasing the pip value of my TP)

How do avoid this error in future?
Be mindful that:
- moving my stop wider will not necessarily give the trade more room to win.....it may just give the trade more room to lose!
- my live testing (and backtesting) indicates that a stop at the extreme of the entry candle (or the swing point if its within a candle or two of entry) is sufficient to get me 1:1.
- I have no idea what the market will do, and nothing I do can make the market conform to my wishes. It will go where it wants and my role is to set the boundaries for myself to operate within.
  • #151
  • May 13, 2008 11:48am May 13, 2008 11:48am
Quoting stewartr
Closed the NZDUSD trade - 1:1.

What I did well:
1. Waited for criteria to be met - placed the trade.

What I could have done better.
1. I broke the rules. I gave this trade more room to move than the system would dictate and therefore I had to reduce my position size.

So my profit was not 2% because I fiddled with my stop and therefore fiddled with my bet size.

So the system worked well.
But Stewart did not function properly.

....................................................
Analysis of why I did not honor the rules.
1. Perhaps I still dont fully trust the probabilities.
2. I looked at this trade with undue importance. If I am going to trade this system for the next 20 years, what difference does any individual trade really make?
3. I wanted this trade to be a winner, so I tried to do everything I could to give it a chance to win.....and in the process I cut my profits, (by increasing the pip value of my stop but not increasing the pip value of my TP)

How do avoid this error in future?
Be mindful that:
- moving my stop wider will not necessarily give the trade more room to win.....it may just give the trade more room to lose!
- my live testing (and backtesting) indicates that a stop at the extreme of the entry candle (or the swing point if its within a candle or two of entry) is sufficient to get me 1:1.
- I have no idea what the market will do, and nothing I do can make the market conform to my wishes. It will go where it wants and my role is to set the boundaries for myself to operate within.
Well done Stewart ! You function well enough, maybe just need a bit of finetuning like most of us! Let's hope the markets will start lining up for your system's A trades.

Good Trading
Bakuli
  • #152
  • May 13, 2008 7:43pm May 13, 2008 7:43pm
4 hour pin bar - price bouncing off support line
4 hour uptrend
stochastic near extreme

Daily uptrend
1hr trend sideways - so this is not an A trade.....perhaps I have jumped the gun on this trade.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: audusd.gif Size: 24 KB
  • #153
  • May 14, 2008 6:28pm May 14, 2008 6:28pm
Yes I jumped the gun on this trade.
Loss : 1x Risk

I said "maybe I've jumped the gun on this one" and I did. Within about an hour the trade was stopped for a loss.

What did I do well?
Position sizing and exiting at the preplanned stop.

What could I have done better?
I should have waited for the A Trade setup.
  • #154
  • May 14, 2008 6:44pm May 14, 2008 6:44pm
I didnt post this at the time (we have had a family member in a bad car accident and they are in a coma in intensive care now).....its been a very traumatic few days.

NZD USD.
A Trade.
Daily, 4hr and 1hr trend all down
4 hour stoch at extreme
4 hour pin bar

Winner 1:1

What I did well?
I executed the trade according to the plan. Meaning I did not make any errors.

What could I have done better?
Nothing - this trade was executed properly, as per the plan.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: nzdjpy 4hr a trade.gif Size: 19 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: nzdjpy daily a trade.gif Size: 20 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: nzdjpy 1hr a trade.gif Size: 19 KB
  • #155
  • May 14, 2008 6:55pm May 14, 2008 6:55pm
I know I am going to change the exit strategy.
Reading Mark Douglas's book I am working on myself to change my beliefs. One of the beliefs I am working is "anything can happen".

If "anything can happen" then I want to protect myself against a strong move against the trade. However if "anything can happen" then I want to give it a chance to get lucky in a bigger trend.

My A trades are reliable.
Can't put any more thought into this for now.
Gotta run - there's a lot happening in my family's life just now.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: nzdusd trailing stop.gif Size: 17 KB
  • #156
  • May 15, 2008 3:26am May 15, 2008 3:26am
Sorry to hear about your family member who is in a coma. Hope they will recover soon.
  • #157
  • May 15, 2008 5:02am May 15, 2008 5:02am
Thanks FXTrader, and Thank You Bakuli; for you kind thoughts.
  • #158
  • May 15, 2008 5:08am May 15, 2008 5:08am
Having traded this system for 2 months, I am getting a good feel for its strengths and weaknesses.

One weakness is that my definition of trend is very slow. Using the 21, 55 and 89 period moving averages takes 'eternity' to identify a trend. So I spent a lot of time on the side lines.

So I have decided to speed up the definition of a trend on the daily chart. Instead of using 21>55>89 I will use 5>13>21ema.

On this note, I will close this thread an open a new one to test 20 trades with the new definitions.

This thread has been extremely helpful to me.
I have:
1. settled on an entry technique
2. settled on a general approach
3. discovered that its is robust....but misses quite a bit of a trend.

I'll open a new thread in the journal area called "20 more trades".

Many thanks and best wishes to all,
Stewart
  • #159
  • May 21, 2008 8:30am May 21, 2008 8:30am
I had closed the thread - but realised that I would keep taking A trades (they seem to work so well).

Here's another one from today.
4 hour up trend
4 hour indecision shown on the candle
4 hour oversold on the stoch

daily and hourly uptrend

Take profit nearly hit as of this posting
Moved stop to BE.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: audjpy a trade.gif Size: 18 KB
  • #160
  • May 21, 2008 8:33am May 21, 2008 8:33am
What I did well:
Saw the trigger and acted instantly. (No thinking, just automatic execution).
Trusted my edge.

What I could have done better:
Nothing really. This was a sensible trade, following a low risk strategy, that has back and forward tested to provide more wins than losses.

It is so easy to trade (about 5 minutes every 4 hours) that I am actively researching other systems to fill in my time.
0 traders viewing now