Perplexed - year spent looking for system

BE KNOWN TO ALL WHO WANT TO BE TRADERS

AS LONG AS:

1. you will not consider trading as a business
2. will rely on LUCK to win
3. call trading GAMBLING
4. Dont learn to take the responsibility (blame on luck)
5. Don't learn to accept losses(bad luck)
6. Cant find an edge to trade--you edge could be a very simple one. You dont have to be an Einstein to be a trader.

YOU ARE BOUND TO LOSE...

Dont waste your time and money here. Donate both to a charity.
Go to Vegas for a kick.
Trading is a very SERIOUS business and for very serious people.

Serious People:

1. For whom Quitting is not an option.
2. Who dont blame circumstance for their failures
3. Whose success depend ONLY on themselves and NOTHING else.

Dont agree what I said; just try to understand it... It will be a very good start.

GOOD LUCK TRADING.... Luck that YOU create for yourself.

You know, the most of failed traders (and i mean that ones who get a margincall 1 or 2 times and get their account blowned, then retire) are not bad traders, usually their entries are not worst then entries of profitable traders.

So, why they loose everything (no matter if in one day or one year)?

Just think about it, when i read "if it go up, i buy. if it go down, i sell", i think this is the idea to trade correctly, trying to predict market will only fu** your head thinking that the market SHOULD do something, in fact it souldn't do nothing for you, market is free to change direction in every moment, he have the right to stop 3pips distance from the 161% fibonacci (usually where targets are) and reverse going to hit your stoploss (instead of your target lol), there are no rules. Some rules there are, but no one that work 100% of the time (so i say that THERE ARE NO REAL RULES).

Now, failed traders loose ALL THEIR MONEY in usually 2-3 bad trades, maybe after they have done 50 good trades! But, just 2-3 bad trades, and they loose everything.

Profitable traders instead, many of them (many of the best of them) have a win/loss ratio of 1/10 or 2/10, it mean that almost everytime they enter in the market they enter (after checked the trend, the foundamentals, the trendlines, the fibonacci, that that other and that other, checked all over again and then entered in the trade) KNOWING that maybe surely much probable this trade will be a loosing trade, but they enter anyway, if price don't do what they expect, they just exit with a loss.
About the little number of times when they are RIGHT, and their position is not a loss, they just let it go.. (if market go up, they let go up.. and if retrace then return to go up, they continue to BUY), well with 1 win every 10 trades they just end the day/month in big big profit.

What about failed traders? They too have winning positions..
When a failed trader enter the market and after some minutes (hours?) see his position in PROFIT, he become very happy and very afraid about loose his profit, he want to close that winning position as soon as possible, because he like to close winning positions, usually he exit the market only because he THINK that market is reversing (maybe a little retrace of 5-10 pips let him exit). Result: he enter the market very well, maybe at the start of the trend.. but end with little little profit, or with big loss (yes big loss also if he predict the right next market move), let me give an example:


Now, imagine that market after an oversold situation and a congestion phase, start to slowly go up... indicators align perfectly, there is also a nice bullish divergence, the BUY-signal seems to be good.. resistance brokened, little retrace, then up again..
Both profitable trader and failed trader enter in the market! Long!

Profitable trader:

Pips movement from the entry:
+10.. trader is relaxed, monitor the chart, all seems to go well..
+15.. ok, all right...
+10.. mm, little retrace, but still don't worry soo much!
+20..
+30.. wow, 30 pips in soo little time.. it seems a very strong upmove, maybe i will add a buy position here, and put a B/E stoploss to the first one
+40..
....+80.. the upmove continue, nice nice trend! still no sign of weakness
+100.. ok, that's very good!
+90... ok ok..
+80... we hitted the pivot resistance2, indicators tell me a strong overbought situation, a bearish divergence, and now this move of 20pips down.. i think it's time to exit!
Result: good trader close his 2 positions, a +80 and a +50, 130pips today, turn off computer and byebye!



Failed trader:
For the failed trader we have 2 different scenarios (there are much more then 2, but these 2 are the much probable/usual):

SCENARIO N° 1:
Pips movement from the entry:
+10.. Yeah!! I'm the king of the world!! I predicted the upmove!
+15.. Oook!! I have to be ready to close the position, it is possible that market will reverse soon.. mm 15pips! good
+10.. Click! (Failed trader CLOSE HIS POSITION) "i'm out! nice +10 pips.. this is a good day! very good entry and very good exit!"
+20.. wow
+30.. mmm..
+60.. mmmm....
+80... damn!
+90.. no, no.. i has predicted this move, buyed 90pips ago, and profited only 10 miserable pips!! I feel very angry with myself, and with the market! :-|
+100.. Ok, 100 pips.. and i only get 10pips.. what i'm waiting for? The uptrend may continue for another 100pips... i enter LONG now! (trader enter a long position, no matter if he look or not look the chart, i just NEED to buy, he think that because price have goed 100pips up without him, now price SHOULD give him his 100pips! Price will continue to go up!)
+110.. Yeah!!
+100.. Ok, no problem this is a strong trend
+90.. ahahaha (mad laught) 10pips floating loss for me.. crazy market, but it will it should continue to go up!
+80.. 20pips floating loss for me, what i've done? i buyed at the top? :°(
+70.. ok.. i will close my position when it is at +80..
+80.. ok, i will close it when at +90..
+90.. well, it's going up again!
+100.. i remain long, looking for a +150!! (trader just don't give attention to the indicators telling a strong overbought situation and a bearish divergence)
+90.. oh no please i will close at +100
+80.. oh no please i will close at +90!
+70.. +60.. damn damn damn damn myself damn!
+50.. i close now, big loss for me today :-( (very very frustrated and angry)

Result: the failed trader predicted the start of the uptrend, he bought, exited as soon as possible for little profit, bought again at the top, closed with a big loss, closed the day in loss.



SCENARIO N° 2:
Pips movement from the entry:
+10.. Yeah!! I'm the king of the world!! I predicted the upmove!
+15.. Oook!! I have to be ready to close the position, it is possible that market will reverse soon.. mm 15pips! good
+10.. Click! (Failed trader CLOSE HIS POSITION) "i'm out! nice +10 pips.. this is a good day! very good entry and very good exit!"
+20.. wtf??
+30.. hehe, it goed a little more up, but it will go down now, and this time i will ride the down-wave
+25.. down-move start!! i get in! Click "SELL" Button. (Trader enter short)
+30..
+40..
+60... i can't belive...damn, i bought at the start of this big up-move, i predicted it, and now i am at -35 floating loss position, how is it possible?? if i would have turned off the pc after entered long and comed back now, i would have a +60 long position, instead i have a -35 loss opened.... (confused)...
+70.... it is not possible, i will wait for the down move.. still opened position
+90.... yes, +90.. come on go at +100 and fu** off!
+100... f**k!! i have to exit because this stupid market will go at +500 if i remain short! Click "CLOSE POSITION" Button. -75pips loss

Result: failed trader have predicted the upmove, but his fear let him close his buy position after 10 pips, and his impatience has let him sell during the uptrend, day ended in loss, very very angry.

P.s.
The day after..
Trader open the platform, look the yesterday chart, see the upmove, see all his super indicators confirmed that upmove and follow that upmove untill the end, trader think: "well, my system is perfect, it told me to buy here, and gaved me the exit signal after 80pips, only an idiot like me could have ended with a loss (frustrated)".



We can also examine a situation where the entry is bad, and market go fastly against our position, guess what..
The good trader recognize it and close for little loss (and maybe enter in the market in the other direction).
The failed trader recognize it but don't like to close in loss, and wait.. wait.. wait.. until his loss is soo big.



The bottom line is:
It is not about PREDICT the market (sure we cannot trade randomly, we have to do some sort of prediction) or have a superstrategy with 90% win ratio, is just about buy what go up, sell what go down, close as soon as it reverse (and i mean a real reverse) no matter if profit or loss, never have personal opinion about what market will do,because the market do what it want to do when it want to do and don't care about your opinion or your previous prediction or your floating loss or your previous operation "pips left to the table", you have to be smart, very smart, and have to be dynamic, and you have to be master of yourself, and shutup all the voice you hear in your mind (that tell you stupid thing and let you do stupid things like the failed trader).



About the story of the scenarios of the "failed trader", i know it happened something like that to someone of you, it happened to me too and happened to many traders that i know.
Learning to trade is not about have the secret system, is just about be a smart.


I hope you enjoyed the reading

You can't post any evidence that trading isn't luck. I can argue that the S/R chart Jim (james16) posted is luck. I can say that, because the chart could have done ANYTHING! James just posted one where the randomness looks like order.

Sounds like a recipe for going broke.

I say this as I reminisce over MACDoug's thread about being down 20K. What is stopping him from going down another 20K? 40K? Any amount?

Here are FACTS:

1) You must overcome swap and spread to just break even
2) Your capital will be eroded by losing streaks (or no stoploss trades ACK!) so you must figure out a way to survive them
3) Your own chance long term is to either trade a fixed percent of your balance/trade and hope you come out ahead, or compound your winnings (house money only!!!)

all you need is price..i use no indicators..if you learn order flow..support/resistance and candlestick patterns..you will be on the way...

look for online trading academy, then search their archives for a trader called sam seiden...written some great articles on price movement and simple trading techniques... this is the only way i trade now..and i just stick to g/y..all the pips u ever need... people complicate things when trading is reall y something simple....supply and demand

order flow? from what? an ECN's level 2? the problem is that forex isn't a market. it's a handful of central bankers manipulating it currencies with their multibillion dollar pockets.

your post is so cliche, i don't think i can read another one like it.

what i would like to read is a live account statement showing that you are in the money.

i'd also like a post the day your method starts failing....

Right, I can go for this. But management of trades isn't luck. That is the key to trading.

A lab monkey has just as good of a chance at winning at a slot machine as a human, that same lab monkey does not have the same chance at winning at trading. Perhaps that monkey has just as good a chance at "predicting" what way the market will go, but as far as win/loss management ... that is where traders are made. This I am sure we all agree on?

EDIT: So by this summary, the true method of success isn't about charts or "systems" rather the management applied to every trade. MA crosses, price action, order flow, S/R, fibs etc are all going to doom themselves eventually if a trader doesn't manage them right over the long haul.

No disrespect meant, but just 5 - 6 months ago you were writing about stochastics and ma crosses being part of your approach. Tdion has been exploring for a very long while. As we all continue to do in some form I am sure. I know I still am. Though if you are going to state things so confidently in a contradictory fashion, a little more history in your trading method and approach is a reasonable question, don't you think so? Not that Tdion is a "cup of tea" sometimes in his debates , but fairness abound is warranted.

dont worry mate..im doin just fine

Hey Hey Hey;

How did you know I have been doing all this??? It did not HAPPEN TO ME... I DID ALL THAT you described in your psot. PIP TO PIP.

I only learned one thing from that. If only I treat my winners as losers and my losers as winners... I am fine. When a position is winning think it is losing and dont exit and when Losing think it is wining and CLICK...

Man I laughed hard after reading your post... till I felt pain in my stomach. I saw my face in it and laughed even harder... what a great post... Congratulations.. and yes I enjoyed every word of it. thank you

Most traders at one time or another spend a great deal of time and energy looking for a system. Others have referred to this as the quest for the holy grail.

Dealing with the latter, there just is no holy grail. Period. Not just my opinion; there is no one, except perhaps a scam artist, who will tell you otherwise.

Regarding a system, there are many, many systems. The simple fact, IMO, is they either don't work (flawed from the get-go); only work for awhile (based on a period of time that no longer is); or won't work for anyone except the originator (the system, while "complete", is being used by a person who applies, perhaps subconscienciously, skills and intuition that he or she probably doesn't even realize and certainly cannot embody into the system).

As you develop as a trader, you will find that successful traders, whether they use what could be referred to as a "system" or not, have all developed their trading methodology themselves, through hard work and many hours of experiment. But after that work and time, they own it. It is theirs. It works for them. And that is what is important.

There are those on this forum who can help you through this process. What they will do is make you think. They wont tell you the "how", but they will give you lots to think about. Two names that come immediately to mind are Skunny and Houdini. Of course there are many others and you will often find them on the same threads as these two. Search for them on the site and enjoy the trip. Best of luck.

Seattlerust

I COMPLETELY AGREE... GOD BLESS YOU.

KISS--Keep It Simply Simple.

Very sound advice.... Thiking is hard part and hard work no body wants to do. Everybody wants a ready made money making method where no hard work is involved. That is not how trading works... I have devised my own system and it might work only for me. Every bit of it was thought by me, created by me and it is still evolving as I trade. I write all the rules, I change them when needed and I delete them when I think it is not necessary.

You can have free systems here but no body value them becasue soemthing that is acquired without struggle is considered to have no value. You will only value what you PAY FOR.

Sad, but true.

Did you ever see a pilot-fish driving the great whit shark? I wonder if some of them could predict where the hell that shark is going to move... I guess we are just some kind of parasites. Of the pilot-fishes! Stick to the move and you will feed.

http://www.cartoonstock.com/newscart...s/cgan616l.jpg

Tdion

Everyone is entitled to their opinion; however in your case you continue to post incessantly like a condescending battering ram in what i am increasingly convinced is your attempt to reconcile the fact you in particular cant trade successfully in the long term, with an overblown ego. Again, just because you cant do it doesnt mean its random.

Let me illustrate my point by using the science you seem to be so (selectively) fond of. Your posts assume that the market is random, meaning that there is no element of predictability and there is a 50 % chance of movement in any direction at any given time. Adding swap and spread into the mix and the trader is looking at less than a 50% chance of success on a trade. However for the purpose of this supposition i will take it as a 50/50 situation.

From a probability standpoint the chances of someone getting 5 trades correct (ie + pips) in a row is 1/32. The probability of someone getting 10 trades in a row correct is 1/1024 etc etc. To spell it out for you, if the markets were random, you would only be getting one 5 streak for every 31 failed attempts.

Sure its scientifically possible that someone can luck one or even two of these in close succession and that such a streak represents a statistical anomaly.

However by the same token, if it was luck, the 10 streak would surely be a rare (once every few years) occassion. The probabilities are so low that the possibilility of more than 2 or 3 'lucky' 5 or 10 streaks following each other in close succession are astronomical.

Now a 5/10 streak is not that hard to achieve and personally i know i achieve at least a 5 each week. Knowing these probabilities how can you POSSIBLY sustain SCIENTIFICALLY that the traders who are getting the 1/32 option week in and week out are lucky. Where are the other 31 failures to balance it out? Your proposition doesnt add up scientifically. The only alternative is that there is some quantifiable order by which the probabilities are shifted so that repeated 5 and 10 streaks etc are mathematically possible.

Look forward to your condescending response.

puttu,
I agree with you,I don't mean to stir things up here but look at the facts guys. I personally know a trader from Florida,he is a multi millionaire.He trades the stock market along with forex and has been achieving success for years.Is the market random?It may look that way at times,it can do what ever the hell it wants to do.Buuut look a price action,it holds true more than none to repeat what it has done in the past, S&R and so on.A little edge can take you a far way.95% fail, and I see why more and more everyday,denial in themselfs and weakness.

well first the fact that the market is random can never be DISPROVEN. so put that in your pipe and smoke it.

now, as for your example.... if the market is random, the odds of the next TICK being up or down is 50/50...

that has nothing to do with getting 10 winning trades in a row or not. the fact that some systems have a stop loss of 100 and a take profit of 10 mean that there is a 10X better chance of hitting the TP than the SL.

by the way putto, i don't see how speaking in facts is condescending. in fact, i bet a few people find it refreshing. people are trading with REAL HARD EARNED money and don't like being duped by promises of beach houses and ferrarris. there are plenty of threads like that around for anyone to see....

i think making profits in forex is possible, or i wouldn't be wasting my time on this board. i just believe that profits are a result of LUCK and realize that even a professional can get knocked out. read back a few posts, and you'll see where richard dennis (a very famous trader) experienced 80% drawdown. how do you explain that?

I agree with tdion in some aspects. I think intra day is very, very tough. The reversals can get you very easy and the stops are very tough. Its not hard to go negative.
I think the daily is much easier with bigger stops - not that you have to be any smarter,,,but the trends are much bigger and longer. Its easier to see a stochastic flatline and carry the trade longer. Also, its easier to find bottoms.
However, you have to have bigger stops.
Also, I have had ea's tested in the past that hit 37 intra day trades straight.. big deal.. the next 15-20 took it all back and more. Ive written and tested hundreds if not thousands of ea's and I will tell you that there are charts that look dam near identical bar for bar on multiple time frames and the market went in opposite directions on the next move... no divergence no fibs no elliot wave abc crap, no stochastic,no macd changes, no nothing... "price action is king".. .Oh really? try trading a contracting triangle on the 1 hour.. that will give you enough action. That's right.. these guys only select premo trades. See that gbp yen move at 2:30 am in the morning that was happening while you were sleeping. If you notice, it supported here and thats why it went up....Ya sure, ya betcha...As a comment: I don't know about this james16 thing..seems like a sales pitch. .. If your living off the 200 of others. good for you.. .but that don't fly here.
Also, I auto trade the daily and working on one intraday ea that shows promise and seems to be holding up.

That's your opinion only and not fact.!