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  • #681
  • May 13, 2008 3:43pm May 13, 2008 3:43pm
  •  MPP
  • Joined Jun 2007 | Status: Be yourself, everyone else is taken | 2,734 Posts
Quoting zoopy
IIsn't gbpchf and audjpy quite highly correlated?
not according to the mataf tables
http://www.mataf.net/en/forex/tradin...elation/table/

i also hold a long term view on AJ being long, due to the interest rate difference, compaired to Gj which was (might still be) the carry trade pair of choice, unfortunately for GJ interest rates in the UK are sliding unlike the Aus's.

That said i do think that Gj will produce good pips using this method as it tends to make big moves once it's on it's way, but we could argue all night about this pair and that pair.

I'll join you on the journey with both EU and Gchf, but i will also be watching AJ, i think thats enough to keep us busy.
  • #682
  • May 13, 2008 3:45pm May 13, 2008 3:45pm
Zoopy, MPP,

IMHO I think the easier on the eye the better.
It really is refreshing after going through thousands of posts when learning and trying to find the holy grail and not even being able to see the price because of all the crap on the chart in other threads.

I know the J16 thread is all about price and 90% of charts posted look good, but don't you like it when Raczek posts? The charts always appear so simple and even the one line comments seem to sum it all up.

This is a great thread, very enjoyable, great for learning and ultimately it's easy on the eye.

Many thanks.
Colin.
Enter Signature
  • #683
  • May 13, 2008 3:55pm May 13, 2008 3:55pm
Here's my gbpchf 4 hour. We had what I'm now going to call a "HOT ZONE" area but we also created a smaller wave which I'm going to be watching carefully. If price breaks that wave to the upside then we may start making waves going up again. If it doesn't and starts to turn around, now would be a good time to short.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpchf_4hour.gif Size: 11 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpchf_4hour_up.gif Size: 9 KB
  • #684
  • May 13, 2008 4:00pm May 13, 2008 4:00pm
Quoting MPP
not according to the mataf tables
http://www.mataf.net/en/forex/tradin...elation/table/

i also hold a long term view on AJ being long, due to the interest rate difference, compaired to Gj which was (might still be) the carry trade pair of choice, unfortunately for GJ interest rates in the UK are sliding unlike the Aus's.

That said i do think that Gj will produce good pips using this method as it tends to make big moves once it's on it's way, but we could argue all night about this pair and that pair.

I'll join you on the journey with both EU and Gchf, but i will also be watching AJ, i think thats enough to keep us busy.
Yup, it doesn't really matter which pair. As long as you understand the concept, you'll be able to apply it to any pair or market.
  • #685
  • May 13, 2008 4:11pm May 13, 2008 4:11pm
Quoting cologg
Zoopy, MPP,

IMHO I think the easier on the eye the better.
It really is refreshing after going through thousands of posts when learning and trying to find the holy grail and not even being able to see the price because of all the crap on the chart in other threads.

I know the J16 thread is all about price and 90% of charts posted look good, but don't you like it when Raczek posts? The charts always appear so simple and even the one line comments seem to sum it all up.

This is a great thread, very enjoyable, great for learning and ultimately it's easy on the eye.

Many thanks.
Colin.
Thanks Colin.

I too am finding that easier is better that's why I'm trying to move my journal in that direction. I have read so many threads on here and everyone is using indicators to get "extra confirmation". Well... guess what? You could have 100 indicators saying buy, but when you enter the market, it plummets fast lol. If that can happen, one indicator is enough but in my opinion if you can get away from all indicators it's better.

As for Raczek's charts yes, they're nice and clear compared to a lot of charts I've seen.
  • #686
  • May 13, 2008 4:56pm May 13, 2008 4:56pm
Since audjpy is also being observed, might as well throw this one on the table. The 4 hour shows a slight break to the upside but I'm not sure if I trust that one. When we look at the daily chart, I get a clearer visual because I can see a daily wave collapse. We're now in the hot zone area so it's a matter of waiting for this to turn south (if it is indeed heading further down).
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: audjpy_4hour.gif Size: 8 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: audjpy_daily.gif Size: 10 KB
  • #687
  • May 13, 2008 5:04pm May 13, 2008 5:04pm
This is a follow up on my aussie charts (post#651). Although we did move up, we didn't break the peak on the 4 hour like I was suggesting may happen. Instead the market decided to show me who's boss and made a nice dive down. When I look at the daily chart, waves are starting to clump together, it also appears as if the moves down are getting more and more aggressive (sound familiar? look at the eurusd 4 hour before the big collapse). Having said that, we may even see a collapse of a daily wave on this pair.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: audusd_daily.gif Size: 9 KB
  • #688
  • May 14, 2008 2:45am May 14, 2008 2:45am
Quoting ianf0ster
Hi Zoopy,
I have a problem relating a 4hr Line chart to realtime price - the difference between the hig/low and the close on a 4hr chart can be quite large i.e >50 pips. For example the 12:00 GMT bar on 2nd May O=1.5459 H=1.5481 L=1.5360 C= 1.5429. So all your open on breaks or Slclose on break can be out by a factor of more than half your 100pip Target and SL. This seems crazy to me, unless you are going to be at your computer all the time.

So dont you mean :
IF we are headed higher, the lowest Close of this current wave won't go below the low of the previous wave.
and
IF a 4hr price bar close goes below the low of the previous wave then I was obviously wrong.

Ian
This is the way I understand it too. When Zoopy is looking at waves hes looking at the finished wave so that is a closed price, until its closed it doesnt make a point on the chart...I think if you are monitoring this a few times a day or every four hours then you must be looking at where prices close (?!) ...otherwise like you said you are just watching a wiggly line that could end anywhere...Im sure this is how Zoopy reads it too, isnt it Zoopy? Raz
Never say never.
  • #689
  • May 14, 2008 3:18am May 14, 2008 3:18am
So Zoopy what I dont understand at all, is how you know when a dip is really the end of the dip, how can you tell just by looking at the line chart that the bottom is the bottom...the next bar close could go lower how can you tell?? On bar charts I use PA because a pin (or whatever other setup) indicates that we may be reversing/continuing etc, I look for confluence and am usually looking in a certain area...I just dont see how I can tell by looking at a line chart that a move down or up is finished, is it because we have already broken the high/low and this indicates we are going to go beyond? I also think the point ian questions about closes is important...you must be talking about close above below because otherwise you could easily miss that it has gone above or below because you werent sitting in front of your computer at the time it did so, the close is the only point that is actually fixed on a line chart...DOES ANY OF THIS MAKE SENSE TO YOU ZOOPY DOO???? LOL I hope so, Raz
Never say never.
  • #690
  • May 14, 2008 7:39am May 14, 2008 7:39am
Quoting razldazl
This is the way I understand it too. When Zoopy is looking at waves hes looking at the finished wave so that is a closed price, until its closed it doesnt make a point on the chart...I think if you are monitoring this a few times a day or every four hours then you must be looking at where prices close (?!) ...otherwise like you said you are just watching a wiggly line that could end anywhere...Im sure this is how Zoopy reads it too, isnt it Zoopy? Raz
Raz

Based on the way Ian and you are seeing it, then yes the closing price. The way I'm currently testing it, I'm beginning to notice it actually doesn't matter too much. In terms of risk it matters because we want to try and minimize it. When it comes to direction it won't, not as much as you think. I'll try make up another chart to see if I can explain clearer. A lot of this actually has to do with the concept of the AH and trading in the direction of the trend (keep in mind I'm referring to trend based on the direction the waves break).

The other part that Ian corrected me on with the 4 hour bar close... I've been thinking about that. This morning I looked on my charts based on bars after I had drawn and marked down the waves on a line chart and I wouldn't go by "close". If price manages to take out a wave and hit the bottom, I rather not be in that trade. For example I took a long on the euro and the market proved me wrong by stopping me out lastnight. Just based on that movement, the waves seem to be getting weak going up so I rather not get involved going long right now. How do I know they're getting weak? Because if price was moving up in waves, it shouldn't have come that close to my stops. One could argue that the reason why I was stopped out was because I didn't use bars which is a valid point too, but if you look back at the lows of the previous two waves you'll notice the distance is starting to narrow and that's also a sign things may start turning south again.
  • #691
  • May 14, 2008 7:51am May 14, 2008 7:51am
  •  MPP
  • Joined Jun 2007 | Status: Be yourself, everyone else is taken | 2,734 Posts
Eu took my 1.5400 stop out almost to the pip, yet the close never broke the low of the previous wave base

now look where price is, if this holds for the close i expect we could go short from around 1.5450???

Aj turning up nicely for the long

Gchf is in no mans land for me as we haven't broken the major wave in either direction - i'm biased short but the waves keep making new highs, so this is leading me to take the long trade.

well thats my take before the 4h close.
  • #692
  • May 14, 2008 7:52am May 14, 2008 7:52am
Quoting razldazl
So Zoopy what I dont understand at all, is how you know when a dip is really the end of the dip, how can you tell just by looking at the line chart that the bottom is the bottom...the next bar close could go lower how can you tell?? On bar charts I use PA because a pin (or whatever other setup) indicates that we may be reversing/continuing etc, I look for confluence and am usually looking in a certain area...I just dont see how I can tell by looking at a line chart that a move down or up is finished, is it because we have already broken the high/low and this indicates we are going to go beyond? I also think the point ian questions about closes is important...you must be talking about close above below because otherwise you could easily miss that it has gone above or below because you werent sitting in front of your computer at the time it did so, the close is the only point that is actually fixed on a line chart...DOES ANY OF THIS MAKE SENSE TO YOU ZOOPY DOO???? LOL I hope so, Raz

The only way for a wave to form is after price has closed. When I enter, I don't know for certain whether it's the top or bottom since I'm not trying to pick the top or bottom of the wave that may be going up/down. What I am confident about, is the area I'm picking (this is the important part). When price looks like it wants to make a wave going down/up in the direction of the wave break, that's when I enter if it looks like it's starting to go in that direction. For me to know this, the price has to close. Keep in mind if you were using PA and looking at a pinbar, you'd be waiting for price to close too otherwise you wouldn't know if it's a pinbar or not. What you are doing is the same as me, just in a different format.

I'll try to explain with charts, hopefully that'll help. I think everyone is trying to look a little too deep into these wave structures. Quite often when I enter I'm very sloppy. What ends up helping me in the end is that I'm in the direction that the waves are breaking (ie. trend).
  • #693
  • May 14, 2008 8:00am May 14, 2008 8:00am
...said the blind man
I will read those through a couple hundred times and see if they sink in. I think Im just making it more complicated than it is, but Im multi tasking on my end so that might be why. Thanks for taking the time to answer, take care, Raz
Never say never.
  • #694
  • May 14, 2008 8:04am May 14, 2008 8:04am
Quoting MPP
Eu took my 1.5400 stop out almost to the pip, yet the close never broke the low of the previous wave base

now look where price is, if this holds for the close i expect we could go short from around 1.5450???

Aj turning up nicely for the long

Gchf is in no mans land for me as we haven't broken the major wave in either direction - i'm biased short but the waves keep making new highs, so this is leading me to take the long trade.

well thats my take before the 4h close.
The market hates me right now haha. I got stopped out on that euro trade too.

You're right on the close but notice the distance between the last two waves and where the lows are. The distance is narrowing so I'm going to wait and see what the market wants to do.

Not sure about gbpchf and audjpy. When you look at the daily chart, both of the waves collapsed. That means down.
  • #695
  • Edited 8:56am May 14, 2008 8:24am | Edited 8:56am
Quoting razldazl
...said the blind man
I will read those through a couple hundred times and see if they sink in. I think Im just making it more complicated than it is, but Im multi tasking on my end so that might be why. Thanks for taking the time to answer, take care, Raz
Raz

Lets see if this chart will help.

On this daily gbpchf chart, we had a wave collapse to the downside. Because of the collapse, I have blocked in an area where I will look to go short (keep in mind I could really short anywhere in that blue box area but I have to have my stops at the peak of the wave). Because I'm trying to minimize my risk, I'm going to let price go as high as it can to that peak (orange box) and exhaust itself before I short. How do I know when it exhausts itself? When the line starts turning down and it becomes more and more defined. This could be an open/close it really doesn't matter too much. What's important is that I've spotted the general direction that price could be taking.

Another way to look at this is to look at the concept of the AH. The AH will work and you can enter in at any price as long as you're with the major trend. That's what I'm doing. I'm using the waves (more specifically the direction in which they break) to help determine what the trend is and I'm picking an area to enter.

If I'm wrong (as in the case of my euro trade), then I'm wrong. That's where money management comes in.

Edit: Another thing I wanted to add which I find important. If we were to enter a short near the bottom of the highlighted box with our stops at the peak, but then the price created another wave and broke to the upside, this will be a sign to get out of the trade because price has a high probability of going against your short position.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpchf_daily.gif Size: 9 KB
  • #696
  • May 14, 2008 8:30am May 14, 2008 8:30am
  •  MPP
  • Joined Jun 2007 | Status: Be yourself, everyone else is taken | 2,734 Posts
Quoting zoopy
The market hates me right now haha. I got stopped out on that euro trade too.

You're right on the close but notice the distance between the last two waves and where the lows are. The distance is narrowing so I'm going to wait and see what the market wants to do.

Not sure about gbpchf and audjpy. When you look at the daily chart, both of the waves collapsed. That means down.

based on the daily i'd be inclinde to sell Aj around 97.50, this is a positive on the daily and a break of the small wave on the 4h.

similar with Gchf but around 2.0400, confirmation on the daily turn down and also the break of the 4h wave

i think eu needs to break either 1.5550 or 1.5400 to decide it's path.

that seemed a little easy to see - whats wrong with this picture
  • #697
  • May 14, 2008 8:41am May 14, 2008 8:41am
  •  MPP
  • Joined Jun 2007 | Status: Be yourself, everyone else is taken | 2,734 Posts
OK still learning here, i see what your saying,

however what if the 4h is making nice waves against the daily, maybe my reference to the price to break was premature, but i still think that a turn in the daily should be confirmed with a break of a 4h.

am i making this to complicated?


Quoting zoopy
Raz

Lets see if this chart will help.

On this daily gbpchf chart, we had a wave collapse to the downside. Because of the collapse, I have blocked in an area where I will look to go short (keep in mind I could really short anywhere in that blue box area but I have to have my stops at the peak of the wave). Because I'm trying to minimize my risk, I'm going to let price go as high as it can to that peak (orange box) and exhaust itself before I short. How do I know when it exhausts itself? When the line starts turning down and it becomes more and more defined. This could be an open/close it really doesn't matter too much. What's important is that I've spotted the general direction that price could be taking.

Another way to look at this is to look at the concept of the AH. The AH will work and you can enter in at any price as long as you're with the major trend. That's what I'm doing. I'm using the waves (more specifically the direction in which they break) to help determine what the trend is and I'm picking an area to enter.

If I'm wrong (as in the case of my euro trade), then I'm wrong. That's where money management comes in.

  • #698
  • May 14, 2008 8:44am May 14, 2008 8:44am
Quoting MPP
based on the daily i'd be inclinde to sell Aj around 97.50, this is a positive on the daily and a break of the small wave on the 4h.

similar with Gchf but around 2.0400, confirmation on the daily turn down and also the break of the 4h wave

i think eu needs to break either 1.5550 or 1.5400 to decide it's path.

that seemed a little easy to see - whats wrong with this picture

That's the way I'm seeing euro now. Nothing wrong with that picture. Unless we are both crazy? lol
  • #699
  • May 14, 2008 8:47am May 14, 2008 8:47am
  •  MPP
  • Joined Jun 2007 | Status: Be yourself, everyone else is taken | 2,734 Posts
here's my AJ charts to demonstrate what i mean

daily is turned nicely, but 4h needs to confirm the down turn.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: aj.gif Size: 12 KB


Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: aj4.gif Size: 12 KB
  • #700
  • May 14, 2008 8:53am May 14, 2008 8:53am
Quoting MPP
OK still learning here, i see what your saying,

however what if the 4h is making nice waves against the daily, maybe my reference to the price to break was premature, but i still think that a turn in the daily should be confirmed with a break of a 4h.

am i making this to complicated?
I was using that more to demonstrate the concept. I think if I was to trade this it's probably best to pick a timeframe and just trade it. If you start looking at different timeframes you'll get conflicting waves the same way as when you look at PA and the weekly may say down but daily says up.

If we look at gbpchf for example the daily says down but the 4 hour tells a different story. What I would probably do is just stick to what the 4 hour tells you, even on audjpy which to me looks like up (on the 4 hour). If you don't have the time to watch charts then just use the daily. Just be sure to account for the bigger stops and make sure you use proper money management.
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