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Auslanco - GBP/JPY and GBP/USD (newstrade)

  • #80,321
  • May 12, 2008 4:38pm May 12, 2008 4:38pm
Scrat,

I also have been trading almost solely on Divergence on the 30m, 1H and 4H the last few weeks to great results !!

Divergence works.
  • #80,322
  • May 12, 2008 4:40pm May 12, 2008 4:40pm
Quoting shakesfx
What do you think to the divergence you see on the 4hr with the Zero lag MACD and last 2 candles? Trying to post a chart but having problems with the net at the moment. If someone could have a look at the 4hr I'd appreciate it....
Hidden and then Reg Bearish Divergence.
I saw that as well.

Not sure though..... I think we're still moving up and I've been long since 200.50, so I'll sit tight and see what happens on the 30M and 1H first.

kj
  • #80,323
  • May 12, 2008 4:50pm May 12, 2008 4:50pm
Quoting kujo17
Hidden and then Reg Bearish Divergence.
I saw that as well.

Not sure though..... I think we're still moving up and I've been long since 200.50, so I'll sit tight and see what happens on the 30M and 1H first.

kj
Thanks...I'm Long from this area, a bit late I must admit, but think price needs to rise....
  • #80,324
  • May 12, 2008 5:41pm May 12, 2008 5:41pm
We do have two hint areas to the north in Skunny fashion. Skunny did say to watch what happens when the price doesn't go on to meet it's extension and it ussually retreats to the 50 or 61 inner fib. So we could see that dip still to come. She has retreated to the 38 already today and found good support there. So needless to say I am long to the upper 38 ext @ 204.46, based on those hinting candles.

Scotty B
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  • #80,325
  • May 12, 2008 6:27pm May 12, 2008 6:27pm
Quoting Scotty B
We do have two hint areas to the north in Skunny fashion. Skunny did say to watch what happens when the price doesn't go on to meet it's extension and it ussually retreats to the 50 or 61 inner fib. So we could see that dip still to come. She has retreated to the 38 already today and found good support there. So needless to say I am long to the upper 38 ext @ 204.46, based on those hinting candles.

Scotty B
now i realize why i cannot see the candle..because i use bar..
  • #80,326
  • May 12, 2008 6:56pm May 12, 2008 6:56pm
Quoting shakesfx
Thanks...I'm Long from this area, a bit late I must admit, but think price needs to rise....

There's usually good analysis posted by Quecee and others over the weekend which gives you good perspective on the possibilities for the week.

I posted this chart over the weekend, it has played out perfectly and I don't see anything yet changing the initial prediction, which was the retrace to 38 to 50 fib and an ultimate south direction.

I am amazed at how price does an expected retrace and several persons get hot under the collar and immediately start calling 207 and other fanciful figures. You guys need to take it step by step.

Incidentally Shakesfx, while I would not get into, say, a short trade because of bearish divergence only, but I really don't think it is a good idea to get into a long trade with bearish divergence on the timeframe you trade on. You can see the bearish divergence on the 1hr chart. On the 2hr chart, price is being rejected at the 50EMA (red line), if it manages to break past this resistance, then longs have a good shot.

The first chart is the 4hr chart posted from last week with current candlesticks.
The 2nd/3rd is the current 1hr/2hr chart.
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  • #80,327
  • May 12, 2008 7:29pm May 12, 2008 7:29pm
hi guys, i cant say bull or bear, but right now my 1hr says bearm tendence says bearm if 1hr candle closes below 1hr 50, longs are in danger , also 4hr close below 4hr5sma, more confirmation for shorts, i am waiting for close below 4hr 5sma and new 4hr MOM pointed down to short,

For longs i wait for 1hr qqe to cross back up and above gann, no predictions, also we just retrace to d daily 5sma , this looks just like we agreed over d weekend, retrace then back south
  • #80,328
  • May 12, 2008 7:33pm May 12, 2008 7:33pm
Quoting GodfreyH
There's usually good analysis posted by Quecee and others over the weekend which gives you good perspective on the possibilities for the week.

I posted this chart over the weekend, it has played out perfectly and I don't see anything yet changing the initial prediction, which was the retrace to 38 to 50 fib and an ultimate south direction.

I am amazed at how price does an expected retrace and several persons get hot under the collar and immediately start calling 207 and other fanciful figures. You guys need to take it step by step.

Incidentally Shakesfx, while I would not get into, say, a short trade because of bearish divergence only, but I really don't think it is a good idea to get into a long trade with bearish divergence on the timeframe you trade on. You can see the bearish divergence on the 1hr chart. On the 2hr chart, price is being rejected at the 50EMA (red line), if it manages to break past this resistance, then longs have a good shot.

The first chart is the 4hr chart posted from last week with current candlesticks.
The 2nd/3rd is the current 1hr/2hr chart.

Well said.

I like the fanciful and one step at a time

Do not forget there is major overhead resistance at 204.5 everyone.
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #80,329
  • May 12, 2008 7:41pm May 12, 2008 7:41pm
Quoting malcolmb14
Well said.

I like the fanciful and one step at a time

Do not forget there is major overhead resistance at 204.5 everyone.

http://www.alleycatsw.com/images/bullbear.gif
  • #80,330
  • May 12, 2008 7:50pm May 12, 2008 7:50pm
Quoting lilmoe
bro, i can ride my crapper on Asphalt
Well it's good to know that it is very versatile...LOL!

Quoting Infinity
Have you guys heard about that earthquake in China. Over 9000 killed. I pray for them as this is a very sad day.

Bless

Terrible day indeed, I hope there aren't any major aftershocks, so many losses already...
  • #80,331
  • May 12, 2008 7:59pm May 12, 2008 7:59pm
today's UK CPI maybe unfold the market a little bit...looking for +ve ness.Any fundamentalist comment?
  • #80,332
  • May 12, 2008 8:02pm May 12, 2008 8:02pm
This pair is currently stuck between the 1h 50ema and the 1h 100sma...
Patience + Discipline - Greed = Success
  • #80,333
  • May 12, 2008 11:49pm May 12, 2008 11:49pm
I am still long in Skunny fashion. The 38 inner fib has proven to be good support so far. I still expect a move up to the outer 38 ext. Time will tell.

Scotty B
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  • #80,334
  • May 13, 2008 12:00am May 13, 2008 12:00am
Quoting Scotty B
I am still long in Skunny fashion. The 38 inner fib has proven to be good support so far. I still expect a move up to the outer 38 ext. Time will tell.

Scotty B
thanks scotty..

always enjoy your comments and predictions..
and found there are useful..in advance!

pop
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  • #80,335
  • May 13, 2008 12:05am May 13, 2008 12:05am
OK the last hour candle closed high, and the current candle has breached that high. Smaller TF's are becoming overbought so we will probably see a very short tern run to the 50 mark of last hours candle. Then up from there.
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  • #80,336
  • May 13, 2008 1:26am May 13, 2008 1:26am
can we expect new tl down at a H4 ?
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  • #80,337
  • May 13, 2008 1:31am May 13, 2008 1:31am
ok as i see, it works. 50 pips in profit
  • #80,338
  • May 13, 2008 1:42am May 13, 2008 1:42am
From my post yesterday afternoon...


"The 3 important pairs for GJ are all holding just under their 50% fibs off my hourly charts. The Swissy's at 1.0506 and it has been there for 7 hours, UJ is a tad under and held by its M3 pivot at 103.96 and cable has its 50 at 1.9606 with its high so far at 602.

GJ has spiked above it 50% of 203.47 with a high of 203.72. Lets see what the pit open of the Dow etc bring......"
__________________

Little change since I posted this 4.5 hours ago.....cable did get 27 pips higher - but still in its DZ before turning back down and the others have only made equal or lower highs.

The Swissy has continued lower and IMO its only the Dow that's keeping UJ from falling. Lets see what the US afternoon brings.....

- again not a lot of change, BUTcable has now broken down out of its DZ and that has given a Sell Signal in the hourly GJ as it followed. It now needs to break below its Daily Pivot at 202.28 to confirm the move.

However, UJ remains in a very tight range along the bottom edge of its DZ and has yet to confirm a sell. IF the swissy can break its minor support at 1.0404, it will take UJ and thus GJ down. TWT

Remember the UK CPI due at 4:30am EST
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Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #80,339
  • May 13, 2008 1:53am May 13, 2008 1:53am
Here on my 15m chart we can see the wider ranged hourly fib on the left and the clear initial Sell Signal was the break of the 50% line after the double top, confirmed by the exit from the DZ.

As I mentioned in my post above, GJ is now finding support at its daily pivot - also the 50% line of this narrower fib, so its best to lock in some of the ~100 pips profit in case of a bounce after the London Open in 10 mins....
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Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #80,340
  • May 13, 2008 1:55am May 13, 2008 1:55am
The fib level @ 203.30 has held strong, check those 5 candles, and now we get a push down to the dayly pivot @ 202.33. Also anyone can tell me if we have divergence over here on 4hr chart? Im thinking Bearish hidden, anyone else can confirm?
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