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Daily Cable Analysis

  • #4,361
  • Jan 26, 2007 11:32am Jan 26, 2007 11:32am
Quoting Bradone
I suppose this is what monach is saying = ref: Chart

I am just wondering if it might test lower as time moves ahead and the channel will slant more downwards.
Sometimes at CET 18h00, or after lunch in US between 19h00 -20h00 CET some final actions do occur.

Just some guessing.

Wow, how do you find the candles? Have you ever considered turning off the grids?[/quote]

I don't usually have the grids. I use it just for this screen shot to show the approx. time forward. To see the candles closely, I have 5 other monitors running.
  • #4,362
  • Jan 26, 2007 11:35am Jan 26, 2007 11:35am
Quoting monarch

I suppose this is what monach is saying = ref: Chart

I am just wondering if it might test lower as time moves ahead and the channel will slant more downwards.
Sometimes at CET 18h00, or after lunch in US between 19h00 -20h00 CET some final actions do occur.

Just some guessing.
Considering we have had a 356 pip downward move so far this week, and my averages for a downward move is around 300 or so, I would have to say we have pretty much expired the Shorts for now.

Give todays session some time for traders to adjust their positions, then at the end of todays market close, we can see where the dust lands.

Somewhere in my mind I have this number 1.9200-25 reserved, but we may have had enough downward movement for now.

In part, we may revisit some higher range next week.

Next Wednesday will close the Monthly Candle, I would be watching this real careful.[/quote]

Thanks Monach,

Thank you for the insight. Good lesson learnt.
Have a nice weekend
Highway
  • #4,363
  • Jan 26, 2007 11:45am Jan 26, 2007 11:45am
My naked wave count chart.
Attached Image
Tra-X
  • #4,364
  • Jan 26, 2007 12:01pm Jan 26, 2007 12:01pm
Quoting monarch
The Monthly opened at 1.9580, now were around 1.9597 mark.

This Candle looks like a big doji right now, so next week will help define and complete the formation.

On the Weekly, it looks to be aiming downward still.

Next week should be an interesting week, with the pinnacle of the High being at 1.9914 so far, and the Low at 1.9260.

Given those two ranges, the median once again is 1.9587, pretty much where we are right now.
monarch,
did you mean it will go to 1.92..... next week !!!!!
  • #4,365
  • Jan 26, 2007 12:05pm Jan 26, 2007 12:05pm
Quoting khaled22
monarch,
Quoting khaled22
did you mean it will go to 1.92..... next week !!!!!


Come on, I didn't say that!

What I was doing was reflecting on the 1.9210 in my head, I guess I spoke it and might have gave the intention that is where I feel it may go.

No, I can't make that projection (yet), I will be waiting for the Monthly to close, then I will give you a update on my projection.

I gotta quit thinking out loud.
  • #4,366
  • Edited Feb 2, 2007 5:48pm Jan 26, 2007 12:13pm | Edited Feb 2, 2007 5:48pm
Ema Update

They are still moving down, and crossing under each other.
  • #4,367
  • Edited Feb 2, 2007 5:48pm Jan 26, 2007 12:23pm | Edited Feb 2, 2007 5:48pm
Looking for a third test at the 62 EMA. 1.9500-1.9510 estimated point.
  • #4,368
  • Edited Feb 2, 2007 5:48pm Jan 26, 2007 12:38pm | Edited Feb 2, 2007 5:48pm
Low 1.9315 1-10-07
High 1.9914 1-23-07

61.8% for this upward move is 1.9544 (4 pips from completing today)
  • #4,369
  • Jan 26, 2007 1:18pm Jan 26, 2007 1:18pm
Attached is a chart for GU daily showing the rising trendline from early October 2006. It shows it's currently at around 1.9473 so there is a possibility this move could hit it again in the low 9500's if we continue down from here.

Would also be more than interesting if we saw a daily close below this trendline

Kind Regards
Steve
Attached Image
  • #4,370
  • Jan 26, 2007 1:56pm Jan 26, 2007 1:56pm
Interesting Pic w/ trendlines and fibos

Points of Interest

1)Upper Yellow TL from 1/3/07 high to 1/23/07 high -
- what strikes me about this trendline is that if you extend it to the left
- it falls right on top of the gap up opening high of 11/26/06
- I guess it can be inferred from this alone that this may be a very
- significant TL.

2) Lower yellow TL from 1/5/07 bar after the spike down to 1/10/07 low -
- Runs as a virtual symetrical TL to the upper Yellow TL - similar slope
- May serve as a support target level for the move down from the high
- if reached by end of Thursday next week, will coincide with 61.8%
- retracement of the total move up from 1/10/07 - 1/23/07 and could
- signal a resumption back to the top
- a break below it on close can have the implication of new major trend
- having developed for 2007 that would lead us back to the price levels
- seen earlier in 2006(although this may be a move over the course of
- an entire year.

3) White TL from 1/16/07 low - 1/24/07 low
- perhaps the neckline of a head and shoulder reversal pattern of
- which breakout on 1/25/07 was large bar(possible high volume
- implication)
- If price were to retrace to this level on late tuesday, it would be
- the 38.2 retracement from high down to today(1/26/07) low.
- Head and sholder reversal was also coupled with massive amounts
- of price/momentum divergences on Multiple timeframes

4) BLue TL from 1/8/07 spike low - 1/10/07 low
- Price action Today(1/26/07) found support at this TL
- sub-major trend TL
- price may hold this line for now and head back up to H&S neckline or
- resume its path on major Tl just below it before moving to neckline

5) Purple TL from 10/16/06 major low - 11/17/06 major low
- significant TL from major lows it was formed on
- may serve as additional support on Monday as double bottom
- if recent lower TL(Blue TL) is broken
- Would also coincide with 61.8 fib retrace from 1/10/07 low to 1/23/07
- high.

One more thing to look at will be placed on next post, a zoomed out view.
Attached Image
Man who scratches ass should not bite fingernails
  • #4,371
  • Jan 26, 2007 2:11pm Jan 26, 2007 2:11pm
Quoting steviet
Attached is a chart for GU daily showing the rising trendline from early October 2006. It shows it's currently at around 1.9473 so there is a possibility this move could hit it again in the low 9500's if we continue down from here.

Would also be more than interesting if we saw a daily close below this trendline

Kind Regards
Steve
It's a nice TP for current shorts and reverse, if it holds..

R
Attached Image
  • #4,372
  • Jan 26, 2007 2:27pm Jan 26, 2007 2:27pm
Here is a zoomed out picture without the trendlines

This is formed by calculating the fib extensions from the october 2006 low to early nov 2006 high to the late nov 2006 pivot low.

From there price ran on up without any significant retracement to above 138.2% fib extension. This may have been a preliminary signal that the top may had not yet been reached.

Upon descending from that level price ranged between the 138.2 level and the 100 level through dec and early jan.

In mid january price broke through the 100 level down to almost the 61.8 but not quite.

To this point it was as if price was making a stop at all of the levels that it had forgotten about on the way up when it just blew right through them.

However, the 61.8 wasn't reached as price remembered that it had forgotten 1 more level to the upside. It was it this time that it made its steady rise up to the high of January, almost to the pip of the 161.8 fib extension.

From here it has been a hard fall. First through the 138.2 extension, but price remembered this time to stop and say hello(138.2 extension served well as resistance).

Now it is headed for its next level the 100 fib extension on a full power move.
If price is to break that yellow TL on the previous post this week, it will be at a level coinciding with this 100 fib extension. It should serve as strong support so a break should be a significant signal that the move to the 61.8 extension will soon be underway. Remember, on the last move down we didn't quite get there from the high, but this time price is moving fast and hard.

I dont know if its part intuition with monarch - perhaps endless hours of charting and observing, but this 61.8 extension comes in at his 1.9247 level.

I was under the opinion before that a double top was due before this move down were to materialize. Although it is a possibility, I am now under the opinion that we may have just seen the double top, which came with extreme divergence on many timeframes, a head and shoulder reversal top formation(we will see from COT report if this was coupled with high volume next week) and extreme long speculative readings coupled with extreme short commercial readings on the COT report indicative of major trend reversals.

I am certain that further examination of momentum indicators along this path has coincided with each of these steps described herein(as I as well spent countless hours charting and observing and can remember each of these phases, albeit on a more myopic level.

Once again, this is just an opinion.
Attached Image
Man who scratches ass should not bite fingernails
  • #4,373
  • Jan 26, 2007 3:54pm Jan 26, 2007 3:54pm
Quoting steviet
Attached is a chart for GU daily showing the rising trendline from early October 2006. It shows it's currently at around 1.9473 so there is a possibility this move could hit it again in the low 9500's if we continue down from here.
Quoting steviet

Would also be more than interesting if we saw a daily close below this trendline

Kind Regards
Steve
Originally, I thought maybe we would open next weeks market with a downward move to 1.9550, but this has been accomplished.

When the market Opens, there could be a move down to our Low at 1.9558-55 area, or from where it closed today in the 1.9585 area we could see a push upwards to the 1.9727-35 area.

The reason for this is as follows:

On the Weekly Chart I could actually see a rise at the beginning of Next week to test 1.9727-35 area which would also complete the Fibo cycle for the move down we just completed today, and test the top line of a bottom channel I have marked around 1.9694 area.

The Fibo setup is as follows:

High 1.9831
Low 1.9558

38.2% - 1.9662
50% - 1.9695
61.8% - 1.9727

If this were the case, we should move up from the Low at 1.9558 towards the 1.9694 and possibly towards the 1.9727-35 area.

Upon reaching these Fibo Levels, we could see a continuation of the downward move towards 1.9483-73 area, and possibly to 1.9455 for the weeks low.

This would reveal the Monthly Candle Formation and help us project next months direction.

This is jsut a quick and simple analysis I threw together, I will do a complete analysis over the weekend, and probably finalize it once the market makes it initial move.
  • #4,374
  • Jan 26, 2007 4:51pm Jan 26, 2007 4:51pm
Thank you, Monarch and Leugimp, for your thorough explanations of your market analyses. I have learned more from you two this month than I have learned from books and on-line courses during the last year. You are helping me achieve the success I have been striving toward, and I truly appreciate it. Thank you again for donating so much of your time to this forum.

Have a great weekend. See you on Sunday!
  • #4,375
  • Jan 26, 2007 5:22pm Jan 26, 2007 5:22pm
hope everyone had a good week trading , take care everyone have an awesome weekend.
  • #4,376
  • Jan 27, 2007 4:34am Jan 27, 2007 4:34am
Quoting Zarul Shahrin
I am afraid our opinion didn't change.... The movement down is a matter of retracement, the market will go up, yesterday we said the market will move up instead of going down from the previous day low, and it really went up to 1.9735, and for sure the market will never move to the 1.9400 as you expected.... so please tell me which part is wrong?
Would you bet all your money? Sure not. Nothing for sure in Forex pal! Cable can go as down as 1.92 and still be in the uptrend.
  • #4,377
  • Jan 27, 2007 8:13am Jan 27, 2007 8:13am
good thread - thanks
  • #4,378
  • Jan 27, 2007 5:10pm Jan 27, 2007 5:10pm
monthly chart outside bar

daily chart expanding triangle.

look for it.
With a break always expect a pullback, otherwise, you're dead meat/
  • #4,379
  • Jan 27, 2007 5:31pm Jan 27, 2007 5:31pm
well put monarch, 9558 would be the s3 level of live fibs. We hit it before once . The mini 2 wave will probably hit it again on 4 hour chart before the move up as you have indicated. The mini wave 2 of the BIG C WAVE on the daily chart should retrace to somewhere between the 61.8 fib which would also be r3 9770, but will more than like by pass this and hit 78 to 100% fib. 78.9 would be 9830's. B waves and 2 waves on cable often extend to 100% fib then retrace to 78% to validate the wave as we did on Tuesday when we hit 9914 for the high of the day but by the time we closed the bar for the day we had already retraced to below the 78% fib and closed below it validating our B WAVE top completion hence starting our C WAVE in which we are in mini wave 1 coming to a end soon for our retrace up.Hey man you have been making some nice calls keep up the good work.

FiXmE1ToO

Quoting monarch

Originally, I thought maybe we would open next weeks market with a downward move to 1.9550, but this has been accomplished.

When the market Opens, there could be a move down to our Low at 1.9558-55 area, or from where it closed today in the 1.9585 area we could see a push upwards to the 1.9727-35 area.

The reason for this is as follows:

On the Weekly Chart I could actually see a rise at the beginning of Next week to test 1.9727-35 area which would also complete the Fibo cycle for the move down we just completed today, and test the top line of a bottom channel I have marked around 1.9694 area.

The Fibo setup is as follows:

High 1.9831
Low 1.9558

38.2% - 1.9662
50% - 1.9695
61.8% - 1.9727

If this were the case, we should move up from the Low at 1.9558 towards the 1.9694 and possibly towards the 1.9727-35 area.

Upon reaching these Fibo Levels, we could see a continuation of the downward move towards 1.9483-73 area, and possibly to 1.9455 for the weeks low.

This would reveal the Monthly Candle Formation and help us project next months direction.

This is jsut a quick and simple analysis I threw together, I will do a complete analysis over the weekend, and probably finalize it once the market makes it initial move.
  • #4,380
  • Edited 9:48pm Jan 27, 2007 9:26pm | Edited 9:48pm
I think cable could hit about 1.95 before resuming the uptrend (or at least retrace some before continuing its move down). At that level there's the 38.2% retracement from the 1.9914 high to the 1.9261 low created on January 8th, 2007 *AND* a monthly pivot support point.

http://img258.imageshack.us/img258/4...ly85cy0.th.png

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