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zoopy's trading journal

  • #641
  • May 12, 2008 8:41am May 12, 2008 8:41am
Just noticed we have a wave structure on the eurusd 4 hour. Based on what I'm seeing, we could very well be breaking to the upside. If I see a strong move up and price crosses the white horizontal line (base of the wave) with force, I'll be going long and placing my stop at the bottom of the current wave which is at 1.5395. When it comes to taking profit, I usually just target 100 pips or when price tells me to get out. My stops are fixed but I may move it to breakeven if I'm away from my computer. The reason for a fixed stop is because of how the market moves in waves. If I'm right, it will eventually hit my take profit, if I'm wrong then a reversal of some sort is taking place.

Another thing to keep in mind... we have Bernanke speaking tomorrow AND Thursday. This is probably why the euro is going up now
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusd_4hour_wave.gif Size: 8 KB
  • #642
  • May 12, 2008 9:10am May 12, 2008 9:10am
Here is the eurjpy 4 hour chart showing the pullback after the wave collapsed. If I see a sharp drop especially below 160.00, I will short with stops at 160.50 (top of the current peak). For this trade I'll be targeting 200 pips (or when the market tells me to get out) since the eurjpy is more volatile than the eurusd.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurjpy_4hour_wave.gif Size: 8 KB
  • #643
  • May 12, 2008 9:11am May 12, 2008 9:11am
  •  MPP
  • Joined Jun 2007 | Status: Be yourself, everyone else is taken | 2,734 Posts
Quoting zoopy
Another thing to keep in mind... we have Bernanke speaking tomorrow AND Thursday. This is probably why the euro is going up now
what will he say this time OOps

BTW, this is what i was saying earlier, i was looking at it different again, looking for a close above 1.5480

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eu.gif Size: 11 KB


sorry i will get the lines added better next time
  • #644
  • May 12, 2008 9:17am May 12, 2008 9:17am
  •  MPP
  • Joined Jun 2007 | Status: Be yourself, everyone else is taken | 2,734 Posts
Quoting zoopy
Here is the eurjpy 4 hour chart showing the pullback after the wave collapsed. If I see a sharp drop especially below 160.00, I will short with stops at 160.50 (top of the current peak). For this trade I'll be targeting 200 pips (or when the market tells me to get out) since the eurjpy is more volatile than the eurusd.

do you use buy/sell orders, in this case place a sell at 159.75 or something similar??
  • #645
  • May 12, 2008 9:23am May 12, 2008 9:23am
Quoting MPP
what will he say this time OOps

BTW, this is what i was saying earlier, i was looking at it different again, looking for a close above 1.5480

sorry i will get the lines added better next time
That or ...
1. His eye starts to twitch
2. He sneezes
3. He stutters
4. Coughs
5. Trips and falls flat on his face

If he does any of the above, start buying Euro haha

Your chart looks correct, nothing wrong with trading that way too. I keep the other bigger wave as reference because the one before that collapsed. So... technically speaking we're still in a downward move until this current one breaks to the upside.

I'm looking at the euro right now and it has broken the horizontal line/base of the wave. If it starts to move up faster I'm going to pull the trigger. If it hovers then I'll wait for the 4 hour period to end which is in 2 hours.
  • #646
  • May 12, 2008 9:26am May 12, 2008 9:26am
Quoting MPP
do you use buy/sell orders, in this case place a sell at 159.75 or something similar??
If I'm not at my computer then I'll place orders. Doesn't really matter too much although I've heard that you get better prices when you have orders instead.
  • #647
  • Edited 9:38am May 12, 2008 9:37am | Edited 9:38am
Hi Zoopy. I've been trading with Jacko for a few weeks now... and I've just found your journal. very interesting. What do you think about the 4 hour setup on eurusd right now? The pair is in a short term down trend, do you think this looks like a good short opportunity based on the trendline?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusd 4 hr.gif Size: 20 KB
  • #648
  • Edited 10:15am May 12, 2008 9:47am | Edited 10:15am
Quoting wahawk
Hi Zoopy. I've been trading with Jacko for a few weeks now... and I've just found your journal. very interesting. What do you think about the 4 hour setup on eurusd right now? The pair is in a short term down trend, do you think this looks like a good short opportunity based on the trendline?
I wouldn't short the euro now. In my one chart I indicated we may be breaking a wave to the upside on the 4 hour which would mean we're more likely to head up higher. I'll have a better idea in about an hour or maybe tonight. Looks like price dropped a little so I may wait an additional 4 hours.

Edit: Price has started to move up again (Usually there is quite a bit of movement in the last hour of every 4 hour period). At the end of this hour when the 4 hour period ends for me, if price closes above that horizontal line I'll be buying with stops at 1.5400. Some traders may use other technicals or indicators to get "extra" confirmation. Just remember this though. You could have 20 indicators/technicals telling you price is going to head up and you could still end up being wrong. This is where respect for the market and money management comes in.
  • #649
  • May 12, 2008 10:34am May 12, 2008 10:34am
Quoting zoopy
Here is the eurjpy 4 hour chart showing the pullback after the wave collapsed. If I see a sharp drop especially below 160.00, I will short with stops at 160.50 (top of the current peak). For this trade I'll be targeting 200 pips (or when the market tells me to get out) since the eurjpy is more volatile than the eurusd.
Well... so much for that opportunity. Looks like the beast wants to run and hide again. I have now highlighted an area of interest to short eurjpy. As long as we stay within that area and price turns down aggressively, I will short.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurjpy_4hour_area.gif Size: 9 KB
  • #650
  • Edited 11:50am May 12, 2008 10:38am | Edited 11:50am
Quoting zoopy
I wouldn't short the euro now. In my one chart I indicated we may be breaking a wave to the upside on the 4 hour which would mean we're more likely to head up higher. I'll have a better idea in about an hour or maybe tonight. Looks like price dropped a little so I may wait an additional 4 hours.

Edit: Price has started to move up again (Usually there is quite a bit of movement in the last hour of every 4 hour period). At the end of this hour when the 4 hour period ends for me, if price closes above that horizontal line I'll be buying with stops at 1.5400. Some traders may use other technicals or indicators to get "extra" confirmation. Just remember this though. You could have 20 indicators/technicals telling you price is going to head up and you could still end up being wrong. This is where respect for the market and money management comes in.
lol... price moved too fast for me to post!

That wave going up has definitely broken now. Probably best to wait for a retracement as close to 1.5500 as possible then placing stops at 1.5400. Take profit target will be 100 pips from wherever the entry price is.

Edit: Price is just sitting in this area so I'm going to take a punt at it. Keep in mind this is more of an aggressive approach since this is the first wave that has broken to the upside. A more conservative approach would be to enter on a dip. Not sure if we'll be getting that though...

Anyways...
Buyer at: 1.5530
Stops at: 1.5400
TP at: 1.5630
  • #651
  • May 12, 2008 11:33am May 12, 2008 11:33am
Quoting zoopy
I wanted to do a follow up on this post in particular because we had an unusual case where we pretty much had three waves all clumped together.

What ended up happening was the one wave which "suggested" a possible move down broke to the upside. After breaking up, it then dipped down, created a valley/dip and started moving up higher. What's happening here is very similar to what may happen with the euro (see post#634 scenario 2).

I'll be keeping an eye on this pair because I'm very curious now whether we'll be breaking the previous peak. This will be the most likely outcome but as mentioned before, the market decides not me

Here is a follow up chart for the aussie 4 hour. Chances are, if I had placed this trade I would have lost based on where price ended up hitting (there was a drop very close to the prior wave's low/dip). However, after the break of the previous wave to the upside, price dipped down and this morning ended up heading up and still keeps in line with what I stated in post#635.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: aussie_4hour_outcome.gif Size: 11 KB
  • #652
  • May 12, 2008 12:24pm May 12, 2008 12:24pm
For those that have the guts, here's another setup on eurchf. Wave collapsed, we had a pullback and it appears price "may" be starting it's decent. If I was to short this now, I would place stops at the previous wave's peak (marked off with the yellow-orange horizontal line). Target for this trade would also be 100 pips.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurchf_4hour_collapse.gif Size: 8 KB
  • #653
  • May 12, 2008 1:04pm May 12, 2008 1:04pm
Ok... I have a question for the more experienced traders because I was looking at these pairs this morning. The three pairs are...

1. eurusd
2. eurchf
3. eurjpy

I visited the mataf website which shows correlation between pairs and these three in particular tend to not be as highly correlated as I originally thought they were. Am I missing something?

Anyways, just curious to get some feedback from some traders who have traded these three in particular.
  • #654
  • May 12, 2008 6:13pm May 12, 2008 6:13pm
Tomorrow Bernanke is speaking. Lets see if he'll make it 10 of 11.
  • #655
  • May 12, 2008 8:25pm May 12, 2008 8:25pm
Thought I would post this chart as an example of how powerful waves are whether it's used as a method of trading or as a tool. I came across a chart of Bear Stearns today and noticed a very noticeable wave collapsed before the major move down.

I was going to post the link but wasn't sure if I'm allowed to do that. If anyone is interested, pm me and I'll send the link. Or... just google Bear Stearns.
Attached Image
  • #656
  • May 12, 2008 8:38pm May 12, 2008 8:38pm
Quoting zoopy
The three pairs are...

1. eurusd
2. eurchf
3. eurjpy


Anyways, just curious to get some feedback from some traders who have traded these three in particular.
Hello, zoopy, i'm attempting to understand the relationship just as you do, let's see if some of the more experienced traders would be so kind to add on or shed some light as well.

I have attached two long term charts of the common denomenators so that anyone attempting can quote them, let's name them A and B. Top chart A and bottom chart B.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eujchf.JPG Size: 168 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: eujch.JPG Size: 167 KB
Still waters run deep
  • #657
  • Edited 8:53pm May 12, 2008 8:47pm | Edited 8:53pm
Chart A shows the dollar losing its value across the 3 other currencies. CHF, JPY and EUR.
Chart B shows the Eur has gotten stronger than chf and jpy which yields a lower interest.
While yen and swissy gained against usd, over the years the eu has appreciated in value thus pushing up eu/chf and eu/jpy as euro gained at a much higher pace then do swissy/yen.
Do add in comments if you see it differently, the common correlation is the interest rates factor being eur having higher int rate than chf and yen(low yielding basket), of course, it doesn't matter how high USD interest rate is cos we all know they print money like nobody's business, how to gain when you are depreciating your own currency by printing more each day without allowing public to know a quantifiable amount.
Still waters run deep
  • #658
  • May 12, 2008 9:01pm May 12, 2008 9:01pm
Quoting barak
Hello, zoopy, i'm attempting to understand the relationship just as you do, let's see if some of the more experienced traders would be so kind to add on or shed some light as well.

I have attached two long term charts of the common denomenators so that anyone attempting can quote them, let's name them A and B. Top chart A and bottom chart B.
I mentioned those pairs because I'm thinking about possibly trading two. However I'm also aware that they all have euro in them but what I'm concerned about is when we run into major news and it affects the euro. I'm wondering what kind of impact that will have.

So far, the eurusd on it's own still seems to be the better choice. If I want, I can always increase the size of my business by increasing the size of the trade.

For the time being though, I mentioned those three more to open up the opportunities to test this wave approach. Right now I guess you can say it's more about practice and forward testing to see how well it works which is why I post a lot of the setups.

Guess we'll see what other traders have to say.
  • #659
  • May 12, 2008 9:05pm May 12, 2008 9:05pm
Still waters run deep
  • #660
  • May 12, 2008 9:11pm May 12, 2008 9:11pm
Quoting barak
Chart A shows the dollar losing its value across the 3 other currencies. CHF, JPY and EUR.
Chart B shows the Eur has gotten stronger than chf and jpy which yields a lower interest.
While yen and swissy gained against usd, over the years the eu has appreciated in value thus pushing up eu/chf and eu/jpy as euro gained at a much higher pace then do swissy/yen.
Do add in comments if you see it differently, the common correlation is the interest rates factor being eur having higher int rate than chf and yen(low yielding basket), of course, it doesn't matter how high USD interest rate is cos we all know they print money like nobody's business, how to gain when you are depreciating your own currency by printing more each day without allowing public to know a quantifiable amount.
Thanks Barak

From a fundamentals point of view I can see what you're saying. Although... put that aside and look at each pair based on the weekly line chart. Notice how the eurusd is trending up strongly, the eurjpy is choppy and going sideways and the eurchf took a plunge? That sort of behaviour shows the three acting independently. If I do trade multiple pairs, that's the kinda of movement I look for. I'll probably still end up sticking with just the euro but I'll trade these three for practicing/forward testing purposes.
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