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4 Hour Strategy (MACD)

  • #14,661
  • May 12, 2008 6:34am May 12, 2008 6:34am
Phil; Re Euro; My feeling is still, that the upper trendline in my chart is the most recent one and a target line. This has almost been reached and we will see if its the limit for this run. The picture is mixed today and open to interpretation, but i think your upper trendline is and old one and the candles are not outside it as such. Thats my take. In that context your trade of +16, if that is what you cleared from your first lot, was a good one and possibly all there is......we shall see.
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  • #14,662
  • May 12, 2008 6:53am May 12, 2008 6:53am
Quoting napeharm
Phil; Re Euro; My feeling is still, that the upper trendline in my chart is the most recent one and a target line. This has almost been reached and we will see if its the limit for this run. The picture is mixed today and open to interpretation, but i think your upper trendline is and old one and the candles are not outside it as such. Thats my take. In that context your trade of +16, if that is what you cleared from your first lot, was a good one and possibly all there is......we shall see.
Agree. I have a chance should it break to the upside. New TL established with that 2 red circles. When price slowed down I expected it must have been from sort of resistance therefore my early close and the remainder set to -20 stoploss giving me a chance for the breakout to the upside should it happen. If it goes south I will be out for BE.
I have learned to trust the setup of the MACD if confirmed by candle emotion therefore my entry. It was also a positional entry for a move to the 89sma if it happened. At least I have a chance for some profit if it does before going -20.
I still favour the upmove.
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  • #14,663
  • May 12, 2008 7:01am May 12, 2008 7:01am
I think there are a number of people on the thread making excellent analysis of the proceedings with number crunching and chart numbers and diagrams and anticipation of what might happen next. However, i find myself getting some kind of fuzzy mind on when i read all of this however prescient it is. I cannot really take other peoples stuff into my mind however excellent. I dont really care what is going to happen next. If there is a trade there is one. If there is a trade the market and the system with suggest this.Other than that i am just a spectator. (Of course i am not saying this analysis is not essential, far from it, it is great system therapy. But i do wonder if people make decisions in their minds which, if confounded by the price, make it hard for them to be flexible and adaptable.)
  • #14,664
  • May 12, 2008 7:03am May 12, 2008 7:03am
Quoting Phillip Nel
Agree. I have a chance should it break to the upside. New TL established with that 2 red circles. When price slowed down I expected it must have been from sort of resistance therefore my early close and the remainder set to -20 stoploss giving me a chance for the breakout to the upside should it happen. If it goes south I will be out for BE.
I have learned to trust the setup of the MACD if confirmed by candle emotion therefore my entry. It was also a positional entry for a move to the 89sma if it happened. At least I have a chance for some profit if it does before going -20.
I still favour the upmove.

Yes i see from your second chart you have covered both bases, i was just checking. I am looking really at the one scenario, because my feeling is that the price is not going to break out........maybe not today anyhow, but we shall see. I am not concerned either way.Re; my post above!
  • #14,665
  • May 12, 2008 7:19am May 12, 2008 7:19am
Quoting napeharm
Yes i see from your second chart you have covered both bases, i was just checking. I am looking really at the one scenario, because my feeling is that the price is not going to break out........maybe not today anyhow, but we shall see. I am not concerned either way.Re; my post above!
For sure it is your analyses that is going to make you right or wrong or sit out depending on the situation as you are fimiliar and comfortable with. Everyone will have their own level of comfort as far as analyses is concern.
For me it is not to be right or wrong( I might be wrong in this situation) but to give myself an oppertunity based upon a mix of information. If the info adds up more towards the up then the downmove and confirmed by the MACD I follow it. Surely there will be wrong times buth then it is to get out with some good management.
  • #14,666
  • May 12, 2008 7:25am May 12, 2008 7:25am
I dont often spend much time looking for chart patterns, but this looks like a possible head and shoulders forming, a rather neat one at the moment as well.
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  • #14,667
  • May 12, 2008 7:32am May 12, 2008 7:32am
Quoting Phillip Nel
For sure it is your analyses that is going to make you right or wrong or sit out depending on the situation as you are fimiliar and comfortable with. Everyone will have their own level of comfort as far as analyses is concern.
For me it is not to be right or wrong( I might be wrong in this situation) but to give myself an oppertunity based upon a mix of information. If the info adds up more towards the up then the downmove and confirmed by the MACD I follow it. Surely there will be wrong times buth then it is to get out with some good management.
Exactly, there is no right and wrong, we must be open to all possiblities that is true, those that we are comfortable with and can deal with. Your balance today is one way through your experience, mine is another, i respect this. I made a point earlier a well, that i feel perhaps some people may be alittle fixed in their analysis, somehow they have made a 'decision'. I may be wrong. However,flexibility is the key.( Actually this was born out this morning when i was sure there was a Euro short, and took one,you have taken the Euro long instead!............It shows our minds work differantly which is excellent also!!!)
  • #14,668
  • May 12, 2008 7:37am May 12, 2008 7:37am
Quoting napeharm
I dont often spend much time looking for chart patterns, but this looks like a possible head and shoulders forming, a rather neat one at the moment as well.
agreed - Im also long on Euro - from MACD signal and also the pretense of a H&S.

Although i waited to jump in on Euro, cause i know price may retreat slightly before the next 4 hour candle were to move higher. (if it did! luckily for me it has somewhat)

So im long at 1.5433
  • #14,669
  • May 12, 2008 7:39am May 12, 2008 7:39am
Quoting napeharm
Exactly, there is no right and wrong, we must be open to all possiblities that is true, those that we are comfortable with and can deal with. Your balance today is one way through your experience, mine is another, i respect this. I made a point earlier a well, that i feel perhaps some people may be alittle fixed in their analysis, somehow they have made a 'decision'. I may be wrong. However,flexibility is the key.( Actually this was born out this morning when i was sure there was a Euro short, and took one,you have taken the Euro long instead!............It shows our minds work differantly which is excellent also!!!)
Full credit to Phil and co for having an open mind.
  • #14,670
  • May 12, 2008 7:39am May 12, 2008 7:39am
Quoting napeharm
Exactly, there is no right and wrong, we must be open to all possiblities that is true, those that we are comfortable with and can deal with. Your balance today is one way through your experience, mine is another, i respect this. I made a point earlier a well, that i feel perhaps some people may be alittle fixed in their analysis, somehow they have made a 'decision'. I may be wrong. However,flexibility is the key.( Actually this was born out this morning when i was sure there was a Euro short, and took one,you have taken the Euro long instead!............It shows our minds work differantly which is excellent also!!!)
One has to be flexible. And I found that you can only if you know price action for the pair you are trading. A change in emotion and mood recognized as it happens can save or gain you a lot of pips.
That sHs might be a change. Lets see what happens. My stop is too tight for the sHs to form completely I think.
Thanks
Phillip
  • #14,671
  • May 12, 2008 7:55am May 12, 2008 7:55am
I became interested in trading 11 years ago, i traded traded options. I bought study material from someone who had lost alot of money variously, through brokers mostly, who didnt much care if they lost if for him. He learned the hard way about trading, and like, Phil wanted to spare as many people as possible the indignity of blowing an account. The teaching was very good for its time and very sound. On the matter of losses he had this to say; When you run a business, you pay for things, like phones, stationary, rates and rent fuel costs and you agree that these are the necessary expences of the business and pay for them. In trading when you lose money on a trade this too is an expence. A loss it may be but it is an 'expence' in this business. I found that a very refreshing way to look at losses. Losing is an emotive term striking fear into our hearts, yet it is only an 'expence' in this business and a good way to look at it. When i make a loss, i am 'taking an expence'. Hey!, i can live with that!
  • #14,672
  • May 12, 2008 8:26am May 12, 2008 8:26am
Quoting napeharm
I became interested in trading 11 years ago, i traded traded options. I bought study material from someone who had lost alot of money variously, through brokers mostly, who didnt much care if they lost if for him. He learned the hard way about trading, and like, Phil wanted to spare as many people as possible the indignity of blowing an account. The teaching was very good for its time and very sound. On the matter of losses he had this to say; When you run a business, you pay for things, like phones, stationary, rates and rent fuel costs and you agree that these are the necessary expences of the business and pay for them. In trading when you lose money on a trade this too is an expence. A loss it may be but it is an 'expence' in this business. I found that a very refreshing way to look at losses. Losing is an emotive term striking fear into our hearts, yet it is only an 'expence' in this business and a good way to look at it. When i make a loss, i am 'taking an expence'. Hey!, i can live with that!

Very good, thanks! I still hate losses, but with this point of view I can easily get rid of bad feelings when they come.
  • #14,673
  • May 12, 2008 8:29am May 12, 2008 8:29am
I'm long EUR too. I waited for the candle to close and it shows a beautiful pin bar. It is also with market rhythm rules: price closed above 21, went down and may go to the 89.
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  • #14,674
  • May 12, 2008 8:29am May 12, 2008 8:29am
Quoting napeharm
I became interested in trading 11 years ago, i traded traded options. I bought study material from someone who had lost alot of money variously, through brokers mostly, who didnt much care if they lost if for him. He learned the hard way about trading, and like, Phil wanted to spare as many people as possible the indignity of blowing an account. The teaching was very good for its time and very sound. On the matter of losses he had this to say; When you run a business, you pay for things, like phones, stationary, rates and rent fuel costs and you agree that these are the necessary expences of the business and pay for them. In trading when you lose money on a trade this too is an expence. A loss it may be but it is an 'expence' in this business. I found that a very refreshing way to look at losses. Losing is an emotive term striking fear into our hearts, yet it is only an 'expence' in this business and a good way to look at it. When i make a loss, i am 'taking an expence'. Hey!, i can live with that!
This is so true. You endure an expence for the oppertunity to gain more then what you put out. It is like advertising. It is an expence but with the ability to bring in some good business. If you do the high probability setups your expences will be covered plus some gain.
  • #14,675
  • May 12, 2008 8:31am May 12, 2008 8:31am
Quoting ira
Very good, thanks! I still hate losses, but with this point of view I can easily get rid of bad feelings when they come.
Hey!, Ira, Yup its what we pay to stay in the business, thats all. We minimise our expences through learning and experience just like any other business.
  • #14,676
  • Edited 8:46am May 12, 2008 8:32am | Edited 8:46am
Quoting ira
I'm long EUR too. I waited for the candle to close and it shows a beautiful pin bar. It is also with market rhythm rules: price closed above 21, went down and may go to the 89.
This might be some waiting before it goes. 1.5462 is attacked once again. Some hard resistance there. Lets see if it goes.

Edit
1.5485 to overcome then 1.5500 then 89sma. Hope you went to BE as previouse closeby high might be resistance
  • #14,677
  • May 12, 2008 8:34am May 12, 2008 8:34am
Quoting ira
I'm long EUR too. I waited for the candle to close and it shows a beautiful pin bar. It is also with market rhythm rules: price closed above 21, went down and may go to the 89.

Hey!, Ira;That lovely pin is not on my chart..........you drew that one on yourself!!!! When i want the price to go somewhere to make a profit, i always reach for the big crayons and draw in my own candles!!!!!!!!!!!
  • #14,678
  • May 12, 2008 8:52am May 12, 2008 8:52am
Quoting Phillip Nel
This might be some waiting before it goes. 1.5462 is attacked once again. Some hard resistance there. Lets see if it goes.

Edit
1.5485 to overcome then 1.5500 then 89sma. Hope you went to BE as previouse closeby high might be resistance
My first TP +25 was hit and now I use it as SL for second lot, master .
  • #14,679
  • May 12, 2008 8:54am May 12, 2008 8:54am
Quoting napeharm
Hey!, Ira;That lovely pin is not on my chart..........you drew that one on yourself!!!! When i want the price to go somewhere to make a profit, i always reach for the big crayons and draw in my own candles!!!!!!!!!!!
hahaha... I bet you do David!
  • #14,680
  • May 12, 2008 9:00am May 12, 2008 9:00am
Quoting ira
hahaha... I bet you do David!

Tee hee..........

Nice trade..........
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