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Trade the Curve

  • #21
  • May 8, 2008 9:52am May 8, 2008 9:52am
Quoting Pirin
There is one that measures the difference between MA-s but it's not the same. Is there a way to use the Trading Station without opening a real account there ?
Yes. You can subsribe to the platform only. If you have an account and make just a few trades a month, I think the platform cost is included. Best to call them.

There were some folks here a while back that worked on a similar indicator for MT. Do a search here and see if you can find it.
  • #22
  • Edited 10:14am May 8, 2008 9:54am | Edited 10:14am
Lots of sellers on the way up to 1.5462 longest line area. Particularly as we approach the European close. This is to be expected. Not an easy area to overcome obviously. Stay nimble. I see lots of buyers also. Big battle coming.

What is happening now as the sellers and buyers interact around 1.54 is that we are filling in the value curve. This needs to occur before we try to move up or we may need to come back later and we don't want that. So accept the value building between 1.5385 and 1.5462 as part of your plan. It is a good thing.

Again, if not long yet and you are so inclined, watch for the market to give you an entry just below the -1% level, say 1.5365 to 1.85 area. Good luck if you are bullish.
  • #23
  • May 8, 2008 10:55am May 8, 2008 10:55am
  •  BoHan
  • | Joined Nov 2007 | Status: Retracements are my forte! | 73 Posts
Hey, nice post here!

Found this kind of interesting actually ever since u posted it up yesterday, but still am finding difficulty understanding it. haha.
Start Young. Think Big. Stick to It.
  • #24
  • May 8, 2008 1:45pm May 8, 2008 1:45pm
Quoting BlackVanila
very good post, I'm going long from 1.5404.
very nice girl
  • #25
  • May 8, 2008 5:53pm May 8, 2008 5:53pm
Quoting Pirin
Is there a similar indicator for MetaTrader ? There is no demo for the TradeStation.
here it is, although its not 100% equivalent. you may have to add other charts with other settings to get profiles for various periods.

you may want to modify it so it shows up on the left.
Attached File(s)
File Type: mq4 level_sensor_116.mq4   4 KB | 551 downloads
  • #26
  • May 8, 2008 7:01pm May 8, 2008 7:01pm
This will be the last update for this week as I am heading to my oldest son's graduation from college in Charleston, South Carolina tommorrow. One down, two to go. I will continue with the updates on Monday. Good luck all

I changed the format of the charts to more printer friendly colors. If this does not suit, let me know. The dashed lines are the 1% levels.


UPDATED 5/8 18:00(EST) Asian Session

+2% Deviation - 1.5608
+1% Deviation - 1.5535
Longest Line - 1.5462
-1% Deviation - 1.5389
-2% Deviation - 1.5316


Curve Structure Bias- BULLISH with Unbalanced top

Summary

The anticipated move up in price occurred today. So far our curve continues to follow expectations. The market gave several opportunities to set longs today for a move up to the monthly highs as we are eventually anticipating.

You will notice that the levels did not change , this is becuase we built value within the value area and the curve is stablilizing.

We built value near the -2% buying level at 5316 and moved up through the current -1% level of 1.5389. At this point the market is building value in this level and likely to make a move up to test the longest line resistance area at 1.5462. If we do not make it through this level, price could return to the 1.5389 level or a little below to continue balancing this area, before making a run to the upper zones.

If you are long stay long. There is no reason to exit at this point.

I would only be setting longs at this point. Aggressive traders can set shorts at 1.5462 if it holds for a move back to 1.5365 area.

Look to set new longs at 1.5389 or better and target the upper zones of the curve.

Our topside remains unbalanced at this point and I continue to expect price to develop this area more fully. Likely a run up to 1.57/1.58 in coming sessions.

Any move below the -2% area of 1.5316 that settles here and I would exit longs and look to set up shorts on a move back up to 1.5316.





http://www.morrisfunds.com/storage/f...205.9.2008.PNG
  • #27
  • May 9, 2008 6:45am May 9, 2008 6:45am
Quoting pippero
here it is, although its not 100% equivalent. you may have to add other charts with other settings to get profiles for various periods.

you may want to modify it so it shows up on the left.
Thanks, I will check it out.
  • #28
  • May 9, 2008 8:27am May 9, 2008 8:27am
Quoting tunera
very nice girl
marpione
  • #29
  • May 9, 2008 12:56pm May 9, 2008 12:56pm
I'm trying to do this in Excel but I'm not getting the same results for the "Longest Line".

If I understood correctly, that represents the "mode", the most common value of the closing prices?

Is that correct or is it calculated in a different way?
  • #30
  • May 9, 2008 4:35pm May 9, 2008 4:35pm
Quoting DownRiverTrader
This will be the last update for this week as I am heading to my oldest son's graduation from college in Charleston, South Carolina tommorrow. One down, two to go. I will continue with the updates on Monday. Good luck all

I changed the format of the charts to more printer friendly colors. If this does not suit, let me know. The dashed lines are the 1% levels.


UPDATED 5/8 18:00(EST) Asian Session

+2% Deviation - 1.5608
+1% Deviation - 1.5535
Longest Line - 1.5462
-1% Deviation - 1.5389
-2% Deviation - 1.5316


Curve Structure Bias- BULLISH with Unbalanced top

Summary

The anticipated move up in price occurred today. So far our curve continues to follow expectations. The market gave several opportunities to set longs today for a move up to the monthly highs as we are eventually anticipating.

You will notice that the levels did not change , this is becuase we built value within the value area and the curve is stablilizing.

We built value near the -2% buying level at 5316 and moved up through the current -1% level of 1.5389. At this point the market is building value in this level and likely to make a move up to test the longest line resistance area at 1.5462. If we do not make it through this level, price could return to the 1.5389 level or a little below to continue balancing this area, before making a run to the upper zones.

If you are long stay long. There is no reason to exit at this point.

I would only be setting longs at this point. Aggressive traders can set shorts at 1.5462 if it holds for a move back to 1.5365 area.

Look to set new longs at 1.5389 or better and target the upper zones of the curve.

Our topside remains unbalanced at this point and I continue to expect price to develop this area more fully. Likely a run up to 1.57/1.58 in coming sessions.

Any move below the -2% area of 1.5316 that settles here and I would exit longs and look to set up shorts on a move back up to 1.5316.





http://www.morrisfunds.com/storage/f...205.9.2008.PNG
Downrivertrader,

I have been looking for your website for a long time.
Do you still have one? The one in last year 2007 can't browse any more.

Do you mind if I give you my e-mail address here?

[email protected]

Thanks and bless.
trader8686
  • #31
  • May 12, 2008 5:46am May 12, 2008 5:46am
I have not kept a blog for a while. It was a little too much for me. Took away too much of my fishing time you know. Hopefully we can keep in touch through the forum here. Take care.
  • #32
  • May 12, 2008 6:15am May 12, 2008 6:15am
UPDATED 5/12 7:00(EST) NA Session

+2% Deviation - 1.5596
+1% Deviation - 1.5529
Longest Line - 1.5462
-1% Deviation - 1.5394
-2% Deviation - 1.5326


Curve Structure Bias- BULLISH with Unbalanced top

Summary

Our curve continues to balance. As we discussed the move up ended near the longest line on Friday and we are now building in the area of -1% (1.5394) and the longest line. Since my last post the market has continued to give you opportunities to set longs for a move up to develp the top of the monthly range and our suspected target area of 1.57-1.58.

The -1% zone looks like it is a little more balanced now, but I would not be surprised to see price range trade between 1.5462 longest line and the -1% zone or a little below. If it does, take the opportunitiy to set up long again.


Hopefully, we will move beyond the longest line of 1.5462 and move up to test the upper zones that we have been positioned for. I think a directional move up is near and only a move and settle below 1.5326 would change my upward bias.

Notice that the levels have adjusted with the price action since Friday, but not significantly and the longest line continues to remain the same. So at this point, our move will come from this level.

Value Building

If you recall, I discussed value building or range trading in earlier post. The fact that the market spends 96% of its time building value or range trading. Hopefully, you can begin to see why. In our current case we are auctioning up and down to find a bullish/bearish consensus and then we will try to move on.



I continue to hold my longs from last week. If you are long stay long. There is no reason to exit at this point.

I would only be setting longs at this point. Aggressive traders can set shorts at 1.5462 if it holds for a move back to 1.5394 area.

Look to set new longs at 1.5394 or better and target the upper zones of the curve.

Our topside remains unbalanced at this point and I continue to expect price to develop this area more fully. Likely a run up to 1.57/1.58 in coming sessions.

Any move below the -2% area of 1.5326 that settles here and I would exit longs and look to set up shorts on a move back up to 1.5326.


http://www.morrisfunds.com/storage/f...05.12.2008.PNG
  • #33
  • May 12, 2008 6:17am May 12, 2008 6:17am
Quoting Potax
marpione
:°°°D ashshahsahsa lol
  • #34
  • May 12, 2008 7:27am May 12, 2008 7:27am
DownRiverTrader, when you return, could please confirm if the Longest Line is in fact the statistical mode function calculated for the price occurrences in a specific time frame?

Still trying to do this in Excel....
  • #35
  • May 12, 2008 7:58am May 12, 2008 7:58am
Sounds right to me. I have the data interval in my charts set to 60 minutes. So they are updated every 60 minutes. So the longest line is the price at which the EURUSD has traded most often during the current month based on 60 minute updates.

As far as any functions in Excel, I know very little about them.

I just put the software on my payroll and let them do it for me. Good business you know.
  • #36
  • May 12, 2008 8:01am May 12, 2008 8:01am
Price action leading up to the US equities open makes me think we may try a run up above the longest line today to test the waters a little.
  • #37
  • May 12, 2008 8:52am May 12, 2008 8:52am
Now that many analysts and Bloomberg are focusing on the dollar and oil.....everyone says Dollar will strengthen/Euro may weaken and Oil is too high.

Now this is a sure indicator that the EURO will now proceed directly to 1.65/69.
  • #38
  • May 12, 2008 9:02am May 12, 2008 9:02am
Quoting DownRiverTrader
Sounds right to me. I have the data interval in my charts set to 60 minutes. So they are updated every 60 minutes. So the longest line is the price at which the EURUSD has traded most often during the current month based on 60 minute updates.

As far as any functions in Excel, I know very little about them.

I just put the software on my payroll and let them do it for me. Good business you know.

The Mode is not a specific Excel function.

I was referring to the statistical mode.

Quote
In statistics, the mode is the value that occurs the most frequently in a data set or a probability distribution. In some fields, notably education, sample data are often called scores, and the sample mode is known as the modal score.[1]
Like the statistical mean and the median, the mode is a way of capturing important information about a random variable or a population in a single quantity. The mode is in general different from mean and median, and may be very different for strongly skewed distributions.
The mode is not necessarily unique, since the same maximum frequency may be attained at different values. The worst case occurs in uniform distributions, in which all values are equally likely.

from Wikipedia

Anyway, it's perfect if it represents the mode then, thank you for confirming.This Tradestation analysis should be fairly easy to replicate in Excel.
  • #39
  • Edited 9:17am May 12, 2008 9:03am | Edited 9:17am
We are continuing to hold just above the longest line as we approach the North American Fix. If we move up then look for

1.5529/35
1.5596

Any strong move up through our +2% level of 1.5596 may see some large buyers and sellers enter so be nimble and watch for an extension of value up to 1.57 or greater.


I realize it is only Monday and Monday's are not know for aggressive moves, but you can not think that way. If it happens then so be it.

Likewise, I am always ready for a fall of 200 points.


I read something a while back that has always stuck with me. Very simple. Very profound. It was something from Mark Fisher.

BULL MARKETS DIE WITH A WHIMPER

  • #40
  • May 12, 2008 9:48am May 12, 2008 9:48am
DownRiverTrader:
Your analysis sounds interesting. I would like to learn more. Can you please guide me to more materials so I can get a better understanding of this method.

Thank you.
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