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4 Hour Strategy (MACD)

  • #14,641
  • May 12, 2008 2:33am May 12, 2008 2:33am
E/U setting up for possible ZB or BOZ...
  • #14,642
  • May 12, 2008 2:35am May 12, 2008 2:35am
Closed the remainder of Euro position at 1.5403 (+42) for 33.5 average pips.
  • #14,643
  • May 12, 2008 3:00am May 12, 2008 3:00am
One of my friend asked me that Whether I have felt of the earthquake. I say the Fx market? She said,no, there was a 7.6M earthquake in Sichuan Province, Southwest of China 1h ago, but even in Beijing, people felt shake too. Bless there were not so many people died or injured. Most of China has felt the shake!
Plan your trades and trade your plans
  • #14,644
  • May 12, 2008 3:05am May 12, 2008 3:05am
Yup. It was felt in Thailand also. Hope everyone ok in China.
  • #14,645
  • May 12, 2008 3:18am May 12, 2008 3:18am
According to my analysis, during the prev. week (May 05-09 2008):
- there were 4 setups on 4H, from which if to be conservative ("only TCs") one could have made up to +43 pips (trade #63 on the image); #64 could also be taken but it was counter-trend (up to +35 pips with my SL/TPs);
- there were 4 nice setups on 1H (TCs on 1H when price bounced from EMA8 or EMA21 on 4H) - b, c, e and f on the image, which could have brought about +100 pips; also 2 setups (a and d) could have been made on price movement and emotion signs (candles) only, not supported by MACD on 1H.

My result: 1 trade (#63), +26 pips (enter not bad, closing should have been better).
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #14,646
  • May 12, 2008 3:24am May 12, 2008 3:24am
Quoting saka
One of my friend asked me that Whether I have felt of the earthquake. I say the Fx market? She said,no, there was a 7.6M earthquake in Sichuan Province, Southwest of China 1h ago, but even in Beijing, people felt shake too. Bless there were not so many people died or injured. Most of China has felt the shake!

nuclear test，， maybe ,,

do u believe the gov. news said ?
  • #14,647
  • May 12, 2008 3:41am May 12, 2008 3:41am
Quoting Cinema007
nuclear test，， maybe ,,

do u believe the gov. news said ?
...... I don't know. It has nothing about FX, I don't care about it. The ppi of GBP is good, there maybe a correction of gu's down trend.

I can't catch this trend, maybe after much experience, I will catch one like this. What I concern about is whether EU will form a ZB? I don't know if this 4h candle of eu finishes at this level, it is the signal of ZB?
Plan your trades and trade your plans
  • #14,648
  • May 12, 2008 4:01am May 12, 2008 4:01am
Quoting Phillip Nel
That is exactly what I do. The only thing I add is because the days news yet to come out are allready(most of the time) built into the price. What if the news is the opposit then expected. That normally has a quick sudden reversal. Or if it is much better than expected. Then there is huge oppertunities in the 5min system as the news are moving the market fast and if the 4H setup did not get you in the 5min(or a shortterm strategy) might give you some oppertunities to get some pips.
That's incisive Philip! Today's gu is fit the case. When price turned around, making the TC signal fail. I thought maybe the ppi of GBP released at 10:30 GMT+1 is better than expected, and the price will go back to 21ema and weekly pp which is 1.9582. So, I think the only chance of me to long gu is 10:25 which shows a opportunity at 5min chart and I can use a little sl to gamble a big trend.
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Plan your trades and trade your plans
  • #14,649
  • May 12, 2008 4:25am May 12, 2008 4:25am
I think GBPUSD may have reacted due to s/r at those levels and EURUSD hitting the .618 retracement / right eye level at 1.5365 parallel to it(causing EURUSD to rise and USD to weaken).

Then GBPUSD pinned / stalled with a doji on 4h and triggered that.
It's now passed a small descending TL as well and may or not close above it in 3 hours.

Just trying to give a possible explanation other than news

The 4h PB would have been a giant warning for bears.
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Attached Image
Trust price. Know yourself.
  • #14,650
  • May 12, 2008 4:32am May 12, 2008 4:32am
looks like divergence won out at the TC bottom...now at Phils line from earlier
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  • #14,651
  • May 12, 2008 4:36am May 12, 2008 4:36am
According to my analysis, during the prev. week (May 05-09 2008):
- there were 8 setups on 4H + 1 on 1H which supported/duplicated a signal on 4H (setup #54). Among those 8 I "should have to be taken" (as it can be seen now): a) for sure #54 (TC on 4H, open at 50% retracement or a TC on 1H) - about +40 pips (my targets) + smth maybe on trailing; b) also nice but were more difficult or seemed more risky: 51 (open possible only on retracement; possible +40) and 57 (but that long tail made me pass it; possible +50). Other setups didn't look good for me neither then, nor now.

So, an experienced conservative trader could have gained about +40 pips. More risky or experienced - +130 or more pips.

My results: 0 trades - was late for #54, still have fear and learning to enter on retracements (#51) and was unsure for that tail on #57. Didn't enter against trend on #55.
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  • #14,652
  • May 12, 2008 4:47am May 12, 2008 4:47am
Quoting saka
That's incisive Philip! Today's gu is fit the case. When price turned around, making the TC signal fail. I thought maybe the ppi of GBP released at 10:30 GMT+1 is better than expected, and the price will go back to 21ema and weekly pp which is 1.9582. So, I think the only chance of me to long gu is 10:25 which shows a opportunity at 5min chart and I can use a little sl to gamble a big trend.

GbpUsd PPI 30% better than forcast. The turnaround was quick.
  • #14,653
  • May 12, 2008 4:51am May 12, 2008 4:51am
Eu is about to form a ZB, but 21&8 EMAs are getting together. And the resistant line is up there. Maybe the price will overcome this level and start a new bullish trend. This is the ZB that I usually miss but it is always a big trend according to Philip's strategy.
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Plan your trades and trade your plans
  • #14,654
  • May 12, 2008 4:53am May 12, 2008 4:53am
Quoting Phillip Nel
That is exactly what I do. The only thing I add is because the days news yet to come out are allready(most of the time) built into the price. What if the news is the opposit then expected. That normally has a quick sudden reversal. Or if it is much better than expected. Then there is huge oppertunities in the 5min system as the news are moving the market fast and if the 4H setup did not get you in the 5min(or a shortterm strategy) might give you some oppertunities to get some pips.
.
It is like hunting a lion and you have it in your vision waiting for the right moment to pull the trigger and all of a sudden it makes an unexpected move. What is the plan then. You must have an emergency plan as well. It is useless chasing the lion as you are now on his playing ground and he is the master there.
I then walk away to another spot(shorter term or other type of strategy) where I know I might get another shot at him where I will be safe.

It is all about survival. You must know when the odds is against you.


I dont suggest here to go to 5min to enter every trade on the 4H MACD strategy. What happened is I was waiting for a downmove and then there was a sudden turnaround fueled by better than expects news. The move is quickly with maybe a lot of up and down movements as orders get filled. To switch to a short term strategy to get an entry with manageable stoploss is the answer then. Look at the 5min chart I included.
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  • #14,655
  • May 12, 2008 4:56am May 12, 2008 4:56am
People, what do you think about this TC/ZB (GMT+1) on EURUSD and about my thoughts?

We are still in downtrend. So it's better to enter a) either from EMA21 down or b) from EMA21 up after/if EMA21 is broken up and retested. Now we have a ZB on MACD with signal bar closing at EMA21. So waiting for possible retest to enter long. Entering at 38-50% retracement to my mind is not so good cos that means that price is going down and in the end we may see a bounce down from EMA21. So if to enter during the next 4H bar then only if price goes down and then returns back so that we see a retest of EMA21 - and then we can look for a place to enter at or higher than EMA21. What would you say? Is that right?
Attached Image
  • #14,656
  • May 12, 2008 5:05am May 12, 2008 5:05am
Actually, I was surprised to see $ strengthen in the morning, as oil makes new highs and it's always bad for $. One more possible explanation. I'm not good at fundamentals, only starting my way there. Anyway the lion has made a sudden unexpected move and we must move to another spot.

I wouldn't consider long on E/U at the moment - too many obsticles. Will wait close above TL and maybe a pull back.
Attached Image
  • #14,657
  • May 12, 2008 5:13am May 12, 2008 5:13am
Quoting ira
Actually, I was surprised to see $ strengthen in the morning, as oil makes new highs and it's always bad for $. One more possible explanation. I'm not good at fundamentals, only starting my way there. Anyway the lion has made a sudden unexpected move and we must move to another spot.

I wouldn't consider long on E/U at the moment - too many obsticles. Will wait close above TL and maybe a pull back.
Anyway, I have longed eu already, price has touched 55ema in its down trend already. The trend seems flat and I think it still can touch 55ema again
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Plan your trades and trade your plans
  • #14,658
  • May 12, 2008 5:18am May 12, 2008 5:18am
No deals on Euro for me, huge stoploss and congestion.Daily and weekly pivot also...........You choose.
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  • #14,659
  • Edited 12:36pm May 12, 2008 5:20am | Edited 12:36pm
EurUsd

I entered on the BOZ(very slight) but also the bullish signal candle. Trichet was speaking last week also indicating euro stability. Therefor bullish sentiment.

Entered 1.5441
Stoploss 1.5391(max 50 for my risk profile) Just below candle body as i believe the tail show bullish move
TP at 89sma 1.5550 more or less

Will go breakeven after 25pips depending on the speed of the move up to then.

Edit 1
It is moving slow from the entry price. I will move my stop with the price so that my stop remain 50 below the high. After 25pips gain I will close 50% and set remainder at BE

Edit 2
Stoploss set to 1.5406
SL to 1.5412

Edit 2
It is slow in its move up. I expected a faster move. So I will sell 50% for +20 and set remainder at -20 stoploss to go BE if hit.

Got filled with +16. Will keep remainder on -20

Edit 3
1.5466 was reached. Put remainder on BE and on a 30 trailing stop

Edit 4
1.5549 was reached. Stoploss tightened to 1.5530 with 20 trailing stop

Edit 5
Remainder closed at 1.5549

Total average gain (16+108)/2 = +62
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  • #14,660
  • May 12, 2008 5:42am May 12, 2008 5:42am
1 tp has reached, set remainder BE and tp @1.5490 which is 55ema.

But I still think if I have more lots, I will leave some, because I think this maybe a reserve trend of eu. The more and more flat trend and Tchichet's speech are the evidence
Plan your trades and trade your plans
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