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4 Hour Strategy (MACD)

  • #14,601
  • May 10, 2008 10:54pm May 10, 2008 10:54pm
Quoting Phillip Nel
The candle emotion plays an important role especially on the 1H. I like to switch to the 1H and see how that 89sma level on the 4H was approach on the 1H timeframe. According to that I set a plan. Sometimes if the approach candle was still fast I will keep it a bit wider but if it was with smaller candles I will tighten the stop etc. The amount of pips gained at that time also play a role.
Hope this has helped.
Excellent. Thanks.
I've been taking profit at the 89, but I've missed a few HUGE moves in the process.
Still learning more after a year of studying the 4H MACD.
  • #14,602
  • May 11, 2008 1:12am May 11, 2008 1:12am
Quoting Palmer
A long ever due to ira "Welcome Back!"

Can someone post an updated list of all of the people that are doing the translations for Phillip. I need to add the names to the website, thanks...

Nice trading everyone.
Thank you Plamer. OldDog has a list, I think he'll post it. I'm out of things a little bit.
  • #14,603
  • May 11, 2008 3:11am May 11, 2008 3:11am
I have been always interested how the other traders trade. I know that each one has it's own style, and you must find what suits you and not copy others (actually I have my style already), but I think a lot can be learned from that info. I don't mean the system, as we are all here learning the one , I mean the sequence, the exact procedure you do when you open the terminal in the morning.
OK, here is what I do... First of all I have a checklist (the credit goes to Golfer, I took his idea from 5 min thread, thank you) so I identify is there a trend. Then I look for price action together with rhythm, I write down if the price makes HH or HL in an uptrend, or vise versa for down. Where the price is in relation to MA's, how they look. Then I draw recent trendlines and note support and resistance. Then I look at candles, do they show me something? I note divergence, other patterns and then I write down my anticipations. Then all I have to do is wait for the right MACD signal to confirm the deal. The only weak point I see here, by the way I spotted it while I was writing, if the market does something different from my anticipation, and it's with the rules and there are some clear signs, I don't have enough flexibility to open position counter my anticipations. If I have enough time I can make new anticipations , but usually it happens very quickly. I think this will go away with experience, I will be prof and will be able to take trades as soon as I spot them, without proper planning. But for now my plan is my raft in the sea, it gives me confidence and protects me from strong waves.

I invite all other members to share your procedures, please.

Presently I'm cleaning my 4hour folder, re-listening all the mp3's and re-reading all important posts. I'm updating my 4h rules, will post them as soon as I finish.
Attached File(s)
File Type: doc Checklist4H.doc   28 KB | 784 downloads
  • #14,604
  • May 11, 2008 3:17am May 11, 2008 3:17am
Hey Ira; Useful post that because we all find other things significant. One thing occurs to me straight away is that i am looking for patterns. We are able to trade at all because the market repeats itself. The 4hr system relies,like all others, on this fact. Set ups by another name. I am looking for the best set up first thing in the morning. If it is not peachy it has the possibility of going pear shaped or turning into something i cannot see clearly. The more people study the history the more this can be seen. The more it can be seen the more intuitive it will become. Find the set ups you like most and look for them. See how they play out and so on.( Infact this is what i am looking at this morning, before i get stuck with the ironing, i am looking for more set ups on the 4hr using the 12 hour moving averages, so when they occur again i know what to expect.)

Thank you for being sensible and patient Ira.
  • #14,605
  • May 11, 2008 4:54am May 11, 2008 4:54am
Quoting ira
I have been always interested how the other traders trade. I know that each one has it's own style, and you must find what suits you and not copy others (actually I have my style already), but I think a lot can be learned from that info. I don't mean the system, as we are all here learning the one , I mean the sequence, the exact procedure you do when you open the terminal in the morning. ...
Hi, Ira! That's an excellent idea I think to share how one does his/her analysis and trades in general. Your's was very interesting for me, as well as Phillip's described in a number of his docs. I'm a beginner still (<400H on this system) and still "building" my scheme of work, so find it very useful to come to know how more expertienced traders work.

If that may be useful for somebody - here's some detail of my work that maybe useful for especially newcomers. For my records on trades and not only I'm using a diary program WinOrganizer. On the screenshot below those who are interested may see how my info is organized.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: HowIDoIt.gif Size: 76 KB
  • #14,606
  • May 11, 2008 5:00am May 11, 2008 5:00am
Quoting ira
I have been always interested how the other traders trade. I know that each one has it's own style, and you must find what suits you and not copy others (actually I have my style already), but I think a lot can be learned from that info. I don't mean the system, as we are all here learning the one , I mean the sequence, the exact procedure you do when you open the terminal in the morning.
OK, here is what I do... First of all I have a checklist (the credit goes to Golfer, I took his idea from 5 min thread, thank you) so I identify is there a trend. Then I look for price action together with rhythm, I write down if the price makes HH or HL in an uptrend, or vise versa for down. Where the price is in relation to MA's, how they look. Then I draw recent trendlines and note support and resistance. Then I look at candles, do they show me something? I note divergence, other patterns and then I write down my anticipations. Then all I have to do is wait for the right MACD signal to confirm the deal. The only weak point I see here, by the way I spotted it while I was writing, if the market does something different from my anticipation, and it's with the rules and there are some clear signs, I don't have enough flexibility to open position counter my anticipations. If I have enough time I can make new anticipations , but usually it happens very quickly. I think this will go away with experience, I will be prof and will be able to take trades as soon as I spot them, without proper planning. But for now my plan is my raft in the sea, it gives me confidence and protects me from strong waves.

I invite all other members to share your procedures, please.

Presently I'm cleaning my 4hour folder, re-listening all the mp3's and re-reading all important posts. I'm updating my 4h rules, will post them as soon as I finish.
That is exactly what I do. The only thing I add is because the days news yet to come out are allready(most of the time) built into the price. What if the news is the opposit then expected. That normally has a quick sudden reversal. Or if it is much better than expected. Then there is huge oppertunities in the 5min system as the news are moving the market fast and if the 4H setup did not get you in the 5min(or a shortterm strategy) might give you some oppertunities to get some pips.

It is like hunting a lion and you have it in your vision waiting for the right moment to pull the trigger and all of a sudden it makes an unexpected move. What is the plan then. You must have an emergency plan as well. It is useless chasing the lion as you are now on his playing ground and he is the master there.
I then walk away to another spot(shorter term or other type of strategy) where I know I might get another shot at him where I will be safe.

It is all about survival. You must know when the odds is against you.
  • #14,607
  • Edited 5:22am May 11, 2008 5:08am | Edited 5:22am
Quoting Yorik
Hi, Ira! That's an excellent idea I think to share how one does his/her analysis and trades in general. Your's was very interesting for me, as well as Phillip's described in a number of his docs. I'm a beginner still (<400H on this system) and still "building" my scheme of work, so find it very useful to come to know how more expertienced traders work.

If that may be useful for somebody - here's some detail of my work that maybe useful for especially newcomers. For my records on trades and not only I'm using a diary program WinOrganizer. On the screenshot below those who are interested may see how my info is organized.
That is excellent.
By doing that you can make some finer observations like how long did it take in minutes to make your profit, minutes it took before it turns against you the times it did not work, what type of setup was it in terms of MACD and candle emotions. minutes it took before it moved in you favour etc.

Make notes of the ranges it moves related to minutes passed since entering. You can also link the news related to the news to it if there were any and give a severity scale to the news based upon the result of the news in relation to the move it created. etc etc etc.

You might find that certain setups if it does not move in the right direction within a certain time period(like tails for instants) it can save you pips by closing for a small profit and or loss. A smaller timeframe must be used to make those observations. Put them in a database where you can sort them by MACD setup type or Candle emotion type etc. You will be amaze by what you discover.

The range it moves within each 5min or 15min might also reveal some usefull info. It will help for the emotions to know that for a certain setup the price first moves 20 or so pips against you before it goes in the right direction. Or based upon that info you might enter later getting an even better spot.
  • #14,608
  • May 11, 2008 7:22am May 11, 2008 7:22am
Just wanted to say thanks for providing such a thoroughly presented, documented and parented thread.

Few people have put this much work into anything, let alone trying to help others.

I find this is really something and I sympathize all the more since you use a lot of price action (and things like MA + rhythm) in your trading as well

I think there are some very key elements to understanding the market and how it moves in all of this.
I've already posted once or twice here before, quite a long while ago. It's nice to see this is still one of the strongest runners around.
Trust price. Know yourself.
  • #14,609
  • May 11, 2008 7:42am May 11, 2008 7:42am
Quoting Yorik
Hi, Ira! That's an excellent idea I think to share how one does his/her analysis and trades in general. Your's was very interesting for me, as well as Phillip's described in a number of his docs. I'm a beginner still (<400H on this system) and still "building" my scheme of work, so find it very useful to come to know how more expertienced traders work.

If that may be useful for somebody - here's some detail of my work that maybe useful for especially newcomers. For my records on trades and not only I'm using a diary program WinOrganizer. On the screenshot below those who are interested may see how my info is organized.
Very well done Yorik!!! I have recently started to collect good setups in separate file too, as napeharm said to recognize them at once. But your database is very good, it shows that you do a lot of work.
  • #14,610
  • Edited 7:48am May 11, 2008 7:45am | Edited 7:48am
Quoting Phillip Nel
That is exactly what I do. The only thing I add is because the days news yet to come out are allready(most of the time) built into the price. What if the news is the opposit then expected. That normally has a quick sudden reversal. Or if it is much better than expected. Then there is huge oppertunities in the 5min system as the news are moving the market fast and if the 4H setup did not get you in the 5min(or a shortterm strategy) might give you some oppertunities to get some pips.

It is like hunting a lion and you have it in your vision waiting for the right moment to pull the trigger and all of a sudden it makes an unexpected move. What is the plan then. You must have an emergency plan as well. It is useless chasing the lion as you are now on his playing ground and he is the master there.
I then walk away to another spot(shorter term or other type of strategy) where I know I might get another shot at him where I will be safe.

It is all about survival. You must know when the odds is against you.
Phillip, your wisdom doesn't stop to amaze me. This analogy is simple and yet so true!
  • #14,611
  • Edited 8:23am May 11, 2008 8:07am | Edited 8:23am
Quoting SeekingLight
Just wanted to say thanks for providing such a thoroughly presented, documented and parented thread.

Few people have put this much work into anything, let alone trying to help others.

I find this is really something and I sympathize all the more since you use a lot of price action (and things like MA + rhythm) in your trading as well

I think there are some very key elements to understanding the market and how it moves in all of this.
I've already posted once or twice here before, quite a long while ago. It's nice to see this is still one of the strongest runners around.
I remember you posting now and then. Nice to see you visiting from time to time. Yes it is difficult to show new ones to Forex the motion and Rhythm. I found that people that have been trading live or demo for some time when they come to this thread it helps them putting the pieces together. They however does not trade this system then but it hepled them in putting there system and way of trading together.
There is a lot of people that starts this system but then wonders off because of a lack of action and they get bored. They want to trade more regularly then the 10-12 trades per month.
If only they can discipline themselfs they will make 300pips per month a certainty.
Then there is the systems that gets sold everyday promising hundreds of pips per month with no effort what so ever. "Trade like the pros in less then 5minutes" sort of systems.

I was asked in a feedback reply that I posted why am I doing this. All the effort for no reward. I am trying to give something valuable for free as there is no easy systems out there.

..."$16,858'' he said...''Could you repeat that?!'' I replied... "We've just made Sixteen-Thousand-Eight-Hundred -and-Fifty-Eight-Dollars-in 24 Hours''... I dropped the phone...The game was about to begin...
"Since Then I've Generated A $1,000,000 Cash Windfall In 12 Months Working From Home And I'm About To Reveal EXACTLY How You Too Can Replicate My Success With Step-By-Step Blueprints And A System So Powerful You're Guaranteed To Make Money Or I'll Refund Every Cent.''


Like this one. It claims to make $2000 per day. It never tells you of what capital base this is made. How much is needed to make this. Why will someone show other people how he make $2000 per day and let you pay for that. If I have a system preducing $2000 per day and I want to share it I will do so for free as I make my money using it. When someone is posting something like that I know it is about the seller wanting to make money out of his system. When the system does not produce and you querry them they will have dozen of reasons why you did not succeed and it is never the system's fault but yours. Then for you to be able to understand the system you have to cintinually buy some add ons and it never ends.


That is why I am doing it. To hopefully save some people from these preditors.


Thanks for chatting.

  • #14,612
  • May 11, 2008 9:16am May 11, 2008 9:16am
The EurUsd market rhythm during this last downmove
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #14,613
  • Edited 11:00am May 11, 2008 10:46am | Edited 11:00am
Phil; You are right that people want to trade more times than the 4 hr system allows, to be realistically safe and applying the method properly. As we know this is clearly shortcoming in the person themselves though and not the system. A matter of trading maturity. I made fewer trades last week than the week before and felt comfortable with that, and beleived they were also better trades.Yet i sympathise with peoples need to trade but it takes focus and discipline to contain this emotion. Of course their time should be taken up between trades by studying and practising the method. The worst thing would be to have a trade come along and then not take it having waited!.

I was reading a thread on another fourm, and i look at it from time to time, where people are taking indicators and putting them on and off and trying differant things. I look at them and it is clear to me they know nothing about trading or forex. They are lost, they are simply going around and around in circles. Of course i have been there myself, but looking at them now it is so clear that they are going nowhere at all. I find it sad really, they are like children in a sandpit full of toys and have no direction as to what to do with them. I felt like posting and telling them to stop wasting their time there and start learning about trading and the market. But of course, their thread is none of my concern and i have better things to do and people are on a differant learning curve and they may learn and move on or simply drop off the trading radar. They probably wouldnt listen even to the best advice either, they must find their own way through the maze. I found it sad though, looking at people as lost as they seemed to be. I want everyone to be successful in their trading, it is a mighty task at the best of times, but i felt these people also were being misdirected, and certainly not helped by anyone on that forum.

I think that from a trading point of view that finding this method is the best that people can expect. It is their lucky day when they come to this thread. It is a great deal of work though to learn the method and all the other aspects of trading which lie behind it. Self development, emotional control, experience, judgement charting and so on. Not falling into the usual pitfalls along the way. For those new to this method this is just the beginning.But its a great beginning.
  • #14,614
  • May 11, 2008 11:08am May 11, 2008 11:08am
Quoting napeharm
Phil; You are right that people want to trade more times than the 4 hr system allows, to be realistically safe and applying the method properly. As we know this is clearly shortcoming in the person themselves though and not the system. A matter of trading maturity. I made fewer trades last week than the week before and felt comfortable with that, and beleived they were also better trades.Yet i sympathise with peoples need to trade but it takes focus and discipline to contain this emotion. Of course their time should be taken up between trades by studying and practising the method. The worst thing would be to have a trade come along and then not take it having waited!.

I was reading a thread on another fourm, and i look at it from time to time, where people are taking indicators and putting them on and off and trying differant things. I look at them and it is clear to me they know nothing about trading or forex. They are lost, they are simply going around and around in circles. Of course i have been there myself, but looking at them now it is so clear that they are going nowhere at all. I find it sad really, they are like children in a sandpit full of toys and have no direction as to what to do with them. I felt like posting and telling them to stop wasting their time there and start learning about trading and the market. But of course, their thread is none of my concern and i have better things to do and people are on a differant learning curve and they may learn and move on or simply drop off the trading radar. They probably wouldnt listen even to the best advice either, they must find their own way through the maze. I found it sad though, looking at people as lost as they seemed to be. I want everyone to be successful in their trading, it is a mighty task at the best of times, but i felt these people also were being misdirected, and certainly not helped by anyone on that forum.
What I also found is that people are jumping around between currencies and timeframes searching for oppertunities and lose track of time or have a 5,15,30min trade open when the 4H give an oppertunity and they dont enter because they are allready in an open trade.
One has to be disciplined to be there each 4H candle close you choose to look at according to your sleeping times and availability.
Another thing is that before price ran there is very little volatility and I have heard someone say "there is nothing going on now so I will go to the shop etc etc". It is when price is stalling and seems to go nowhere that you should be alert. Especially in the shorter timeframes.

One has to be awake and alert with a plan for the day if there is a possibilty of a setup on the 4H. When the setup is there all homework should have been done allready.
Thanks. Just spilling my mind.
Phillp
  • #14,615
  • Edited 11:27am May 11, 2008 11:17am | Edited 11:27am
Quite so, trading is all about focus and discipline. But this is learned the hard way, but is possible if people show willingness to learn and understand themselves. People naturally start looking elsewhere when the market is slow, differant markets and pairings and so on, and all the while their focus is being lost on the pairing which might give the real trade!, as you say. People must find their way to this understanding, it takes along time though. Regretably these are the intangible things of trading which people must learn themselves.

But also, as i said in my emails to you, that there is a 'knowing' which can be so valuable with this method. When you 'know' you will make your 300 pips a month, because the method allows you to do this, then you can stop looking for other things. But you cannot sell people the 'knowing' they must find it in themselves, and they will stop so many of their bad habits!!!! This is a quality that i have found most useful.
  • #14,616
  • Edited 3:54pm May 11, 2008 3:22pm | Edited 3:54pm
hi all,
i have been reding this thread for 2 weeks, which is when i first discovered it and have so far been trying my best to get a good understanding of the system. i am still in the process of reading all the pdfs and listening to the lessons.

at first i made a mistake of only looking at the macd the signals but have realized these should be used in conjunction with other factors like price action, range etc... so looking at the current eur usd chart it seems as if the price has broken the trendline (conecting the high of the 23rd arp and 6th and 9th of may).

as per phil's 14613 it seems that since the price has closed above the 21 ema there could be a potential long position, but maybe not just yet as there is still no macd signal, but would you also interpret this as a tail end of the recent price action, with a possibility to fall back under the recent trendline, hence a possible short.

from my understanding, or lack of, since there is no clear indication i should wait for a macd signal to determine whether this is a long or short.

would be greatful if you could let me know where you stand on the current position and if i am reading the system in the right way.

thanks for this system, i can see it can be very profitable but takes patience and commitment to understand.

thanks!!!

just had another look...do you see a higher high or the macd touching the 0.15 macd level and going back...i.e. the first giving abuy and the second signal a sell. i am confused.

thanks again
Attached Image
  • #14,617
  • May 11, 2008 6:38pm May 11, 2008 6:38pm
Hi Philip, I have not been able to locate the market rhythm page. I am quite new on this thread, so I am trying to understand this system. I would appreciate your help. Thanks.
PIPS AND PIPS ONLY... + OF COURSE
  • #14,618
  • May 11, 2008 7:10pm May 11, 2008 7:10pm
There is an attachments link in the type right of the thread (paperclip with a number beside it)

Or just search the thread for market rhythm with the search tool.
Someone humble lies about being lucky, someone arrogant simply lies.
  • #14,619
  • May 11, 2008 7:33pm May 11, 2008 7:33pm
Quoting Sky Walk
There is an attachments link in the type right of the thread (paperclip with a number beside it)

Or just search the thread for market rhythm with the search tool.
Thanks a lot... I got the whole lesson on http://www.fxtradeblog.com/lesson.html
PIPS AND PIPS ONLY... + OF COURSE
  • #14,620
  • May 11, 2008 10:46pm May 11, 2008 10:46pm
Sell EURUSD 1.5446
SL 1.5488
TP1 1.54021

Edit: set remainder to BE

Reasons for entry: Reverse hammer, tweezer tops and MACD VT.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eur 510 4h.gif Size: 24 KB
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