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4 Hour Strategy (MACD)

  • #14,581
  • May 9, 2008 8:56am May 9, 2008 8:56am
Here is my trades for today based on price action alone. I did not trade the GbpUsd. I did enter a sell on the GbpUsd but closed it as I was entering at the wrong place for -2 pips. I than decided to stay with the GbpJpy and trade it countertrend except for one trade which was at 13:02.
Once again to show that you can make it by studying the markets. I entered early this morning on the EurUsd for +20pips and then concentrated on the GbpJpy.

Once again not to show off but to encourage you to spend time studying a certain pair motions and behaviour. I can even countertrend the GbpJpy buying while it is running down for 300pips. Not one wrong deal on the GbpJpy. I know this pair as I have studied it for years.
Phillip
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #14,582
  • May 9, 2008 9:04am May 9, 2008 9:04am
Quoting maxster
I will be more selective as to which trades I will post in the future as the new ones will be confused. And the trade is very indeed against the 4H movement in terms of the MAs but in tuned with the 1H MAs.

I mainly elected to show this trade because of the beautiful price rounding on the 1H and it is basically what we should be looking for in all TC trades regardless of timeframe - this one is picture perfect. Like Phillip points out price action is the key to making your trading easier.
Thanks.
That setup was perfect. I just found that newones start to look for those setups on the 15min rather then seeing the setup on the 4H,1H and then get the entry and final confirmation on 15min. If the rhythm is on it will be in harmony in all timeframes. The better and quicker you can spot it busy forming on the 4H you can see it on the 1H especially the early 1H entry method.
It is however hard for someone new to Forex to spot that. It takes time and studying of each pair to learn its behaviour
  • #14,583
  • May 9, 2008 9:52am May 9, 2008 9:52am
Quoting Phillip Nel
12:00 4Hour candle close giving TC
Thanks Phillip. I am in Jamaica and for some reason my charts didnt show me that TC pattern as it showed you. I am using the same macd colored indicator as you use in your system. As you can see the candle that formed at twelve came down even further on your charts and formed a better candle. Have a look at my charts i have attached.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gby.GIF Size: 67 KB
  • #14,584
  • May 9, 2008 10:40am May 9, 2008 10:40am
Quoting Phillip Nel
Here is my trades for today based on price action alone. I did not trade the GbpUsd. I did enter a sell on the GbpUsd but closed it as I was entering at the wrong place for -2 pips. I than decided to stay with the GbpJpy and trade it countertrend except for one trade which was at 13:02.
Once again to show that you can make it by studying the markets. I entered early this morning on the EurUsd for +20pips and then concentrated on the GbpJpy.

Once again not to show off but to encourage you to spend time studying a certain pair motions and behaviour. I can even countertrend the GbpJpy buying while it is running down for 300pips. Not one wrong deal on the GbpJpy. I know this pair as I have studied it for years.
Phillip
Phillip, this results on real account?
  • #14,585
  • May 9, 2008 10:41am May 9, 2008 10:41am
Quoting Phillip Nel
Here is my trades for today based on price action alone. I did not trade the GbpUsd. I did enter a sell on the GbpUsd but closed it as I was entering at the wrong place for -2 pips. I than decided to stay with the GbpJpy and trade it countertrend except for one trade which was at 13:02.
Once again to show that you can make it by studying the markets. I entered early this morning on the EurUsd for +20pips and then concentrated on the GbpJpy.

Once again not to show off but to encourage you to spend time studying a certain pair motions and behaviour. I can even countertrend the GbpJpy buying while it is running down for 300pips. Not one wrong deal on the GbpJpy. I know this pair as I have studied it for years.
Phillip
hi, Phillip.
you are really masters!
yesterday I was wondering why you entered gj counter trend,
and now I know it is your countertrend strategy,
but it is so difficult to understand why you enter there

the information you showed here is very encouraging, thanks!

Dhalsim
Success is the small sum of efforts, repeated day in and day out.
  • #14,586
  • May 9, 2008 10:44am May 9, 2008 10:44am
Quoting maxster
I will be more selective as to which trades I will post in the future as the new ones will be confused. And the trade is very indeed against the 4H movement in terms of the MAs but in tuned with the 1H MAs.

I mainly elected to show this trade because of the beautiful price rounding on the 1H and it is basically what we should be looking for in all TC trades regardless of timeframe - this one is picture perfect. Like Phillip points out price action is the key to making your trading easier.
hi, maxter

I am a fan of your chart, every time you post I ask myself why I did not see the market the same way.
and I think you should start a thread to explain the way you trade.
It will help a lot!
best regards!

Dhalsim
Success is the small sum of efforts, repeated day in and day out.
  • #14,587
  • May 9, 2008 10:53am May 9, 2008 10:53am
Quoting maxster
I will be more selective as to which trades I will post in the future as the new ones will be confused. And the trade is very indeed against the 4H movement in terms of the MAs but in tuned with the 1H MAs.

I mainly elected to show this trade because of the beautiful price rounding on the 1H and it is basically what we should be looking for in all TC trades regardless of timeframe - this one is picture perfect. Like Phillip points out price action is the key to making your trading easier.
Thanks Phillip_Nel and Maxster to show your understanding of price action while trading 4H system.

Ren
  • #14,588
  • May 9, 2008 11:07am May 9, 2008 11:07am
Quoting Phillip Nel
Here is my trades for today based on price action alone. I did not trade the GbpUsd. I did enter a sell on the GbpUsd but closed it as I was entering at the wrong place for -2 pips. I than decided to stay with the GbpJpy and trade it countertrend except for one trade which was at 13:02.
Once again to show that you can make it by studying the markets. I entered early this morning on the EurUsd for +20pips and then concentrated on the GbpJpy.

Once again not to show off but to encourage you to spend time studying a certain pair motions and behaviour. I can even countertrend the GbpJpy buying while it is running down for 300pips. Not one wrong deal on the GbpJpy. I know this pair as I have studied it for years.
Phillip
all of gbpjpy trades are countertrend,some of them are even in the middle of the m5 candle,in wich timeframe u decide to enter ?i think u went down to M1,yes?
and whould u plz show us how u trade (for example one of them)?
  • #14,589
  • May 9, 2008 11:12am May 9, 2008 11:12am
Quoting 4newbie
Phillip, this results on real account?
Hi
No that was not my live account. On my live account I use very small size to trade. I have done that to show how important price action is even with the 4H system. then you will know when a trade is really turning against you and you can close it earlier. With that you will also know when to let a trade run and give it room to run. That all in all will make you more pips on the same trades you normally would have taken less pips. That is the whole reason for me trading price action as well
  • #14,590
  • May 9, 2008 11:20am May 9, 2008 11:20am
Phil,

I went over your spread sheet with trades you took. I noticed that most of the trades you closed have a risk/reward that is less than 1:1. So in a sense you are willing to lose more than you are usually making. Your system obviously works, I just thought I would point it out and ask you to comment.

Also, on your demo postings, the counter trades you have taken...I don't seen stop losses or take profits...
  • #14,591
  • May 9, 2008 11:45am May 9, 2008 11:45am
Quoting jeta
Phil,

I went over your spread sheet with trades you took. I noticed that most of the trades you closed have a risk/reward that is less than 1:1. So in a sense you are willing to lose more than you are usually making. Your system obviously works, I just thought I would point it out and ask you to comment.

Also, on your demo postings, the counter trades you have taken...I don't seen stop losses or take profits...
1. Because of my work conditions and limited internet access I have to set a first TP of 20-30 on 50% and set the remainder on a 20-30 trailing stop to assure profit after the price have moved past my 1st take profit.
The risk:reward worked out to validate the trade and the one realised is not the same due to this way of trade. Bur I got very fimiliar this way and feel safe as I am doing it now for more than 2years. The TC trades also give a above 80% accuracy making it possible.
2. Those were demo trades and i were live. If it was real money I will set a crash stop for if something goes wrong. I hardly set a Take profit as price action determines the exit point. If I have to go somehere I set a trailing stop. I also exit on price action when a trade goes wrong.

Hope this answers you
  • #14,592
  • May 9, 2008 11:57am May 9, 2008 11:57am
Aaaah, so you are using the risk/reward as another indicator.


What is your usual crash stop set to in terms of % of account per trade if you were using your live account? 2%-3% still? Around how many pips is your crash stop on EURUSD for example?
  • #14,593
  • May 9, 2008 12:06pm May 9, 2008 12:06pm
Phillip,
What do you do when price reaches the 89 with your remaining open position? Do you TP, tighten your stops or just let it run? Or does it depend on the angle of the move?
  • #14,594
  • May 9, 2008 12:11pm May 9, 2008 12:11pm
Quoting jeta
Aaaah, so you are using the risk/reward as another indicator.


What is your usual crash stop set to in terms of % of account per trade if you were using your live account? 2%-3% still? Around how many pips is your crash stop on EURUSD for example?
Those demotrades I did today the crash stop is only for if something goes wrong and I would say max 40-50pips. I normally closes that before that so my % risk is far less than 2% making it good for the GbpJpy as I can be wrong 4 times in a row and right only ones and still make good pips because if the GbpJpy runs it runs 100-200 pips at a time so I can afford 4 losses for 10-15 pips at a loss.
  • #14,595
  • May 9, 2008 8:45pm May 9, 2008 8:45pm
Quoting feodras
Thanks Phillip. I am in Jamaica and for some reason my charts didnt show me that TC pattern as it showed you. I am using the same macd colored indicator as you use in your system. As you can see the candle that formed at twelve came down even further on your charts and formed a better candle. Have a look at my charts i have attached.
feodras:

There is nothing wrong with your MACD indicator. You just have a different server time on your broker. I have tested several brokers +0, +1, +2 GMT and recommend MIG (same timeframe as Phillip).

Cheers
  • #14,596
  • May 10, 2008 1:05am May 10, 2008 1:05am
Quoting Hookem28
Phillip,
What do you do when price reaches the 89 with your remaining open position? Do you TP, tighten your stops or just let it run? Or does it depend on the angle of the move?
The candle emotion plays an important role especially on the 1H. I like to switch to the 1H and see how that 89sma level on the 4H was approach on the 1H timeframe. According to that I set a plan. Sometimes if the approach candle was still fast I will keep it a bit wider but if it was with smaller candles I will tighten the stop etc. The amount of pips gained at that time also play a role.
Hope this has helped.
  • #14,597
  • May 10, 2008 8:43am May 10, 2008 8:43am
A long ever due to ira "Welcome Back!"

Can someone post an updated list of all of the people that are doing the translations for Phillip. I need to add the names to the website, thanks...

Nice trading everyone.
  • #14,598
  • Edited May 11, 2008 2:53am May 10, 2008 8:59am | Edited May 11, 2008 2:53am
Research;I like sometimes looking at something from a completely differant angle..........So I have posted two charts of the Euro this week, one is an 8hr chart, and the other a 12 hr. The immediate disadvantage of trading bigger time frames is possibly having huge stop losses but i thought it was fun to look at them anyway, to see how they worked and if they offer insights..........or not! ( It is certainly easier to draw trendlines on them, because you have fewer candles to choose from!.)
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  • #14,599
  • Edited May 11, 2008 3:06am May 10, 2008 9:26am | Edited May 11, 2008 3:06am
In a way, this is a slightly academic exercise because mt4 doesnt make these time frames real time. Shame really, you can only do it with a period converter and they are offline. Having said that you they would only need up dating every 8 or 12 hours, but hey!, i am only shooting the breeze here. This chart is the 4 hr one, involving an awkward trade some took and others didnt. Now............where is the limit of the trade and your exit?, what happend at the end of it? and what happend next? All is revealed.

Out of curiousity, i put the 12 hour equivalent moving averages onto a 4 hr chart, and found out also why the price formed that 4 bar high on April 30. Because the price has stopped just under the 89sma.My point here is, that if i had been keeping an eye on this time frame in this way, i would know the price had fallen below the 89sma, and when it returned, touched it, then moved down, that would have explained the 4 bar high and not considered it a long trade. One person did that morning. Another reason on that day not to looking for long trades.
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  • #14,600
  • May 10, 2008 9:39am May 10, 2008 9:39am
You see, i was thinking about this awhile ago. I havent really found a great deal of use for these bigger time frames. We can only have so many charts open at one time, and only so many lines on our charts. Phil has pared down the 4hr chart to the least lines to do the most effective job, and the 4rh system works perfectly most of the time. However, people do post on the thread questions like, 'why didnt the price go to the 89sma as we expected? and so on. The short answer is the price doesnt do what we want it to. The second answer is highlighted here. The price is just as likely to be referencing a moving average from another time frame, in this case, a multiple of 4 hours. A daily chart is also only a multiple of a 4hr chart x6. The 4hr candle reaching that moving average, forming a pin, and falling is not just coincidence.
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