Malaysia

gbp/jpy daily.

Stop scalping....

this cable play with me today...again open long...

:d:d:d

Hi guys......................
Thisi is the my last post for today....

Fisnbury_BetaV1


Good week for all traders and for my friends of Malaysia!!!!!

Byeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee

EU...Bingo bongo System...Finish number one........Go buy!!

:d:d:d:d

Highlights

 

1. Oh Man..Wait Until You Hear This...
   
   
2. Booked USDJPY Profits - Looking For Wave 2
   
   
3. 1420 In S&P 500 and 3.95% 10 yr Rejected..FINALLY!
   
   
4. Dollar Crushed As Oil Approaches $124//bbl
   
   
5. Short USDJPY Looking for 104 Break
   
   

Friday, May 09, 2008 - New York Update - 1:23 PM EST Ok traders, my USDJPY sell scenario #2 went into play last night. At around 2:00 AM EST I was stopped into our short position at 103.40 with 103.85 stop losses. It's a good thing I was not awake for it, because I had a huge position on and it immediately came in 103.60 bid. I definitely would have been sweating it, because prior to the trade I got permission from my fund COO to trade larger than my normal size. But in the end our stops were in a good spot and the selling continued to below 103.00. Now, here is where my morning got interesting. The 102.70 break in USDJPY was potentially very big - it was the April 22 lows - and our initial target was 102.50. Trade Balance numbers came out and they were slightly better than expected, which is dollar positive, yet the dollar couldn't hold a bid. Oh boy did my greed kick in because I decided to strap on an even larger position. I stopped in for more USDJPY and I was now size short USDJPY at an average of 103.05 as it was trading 102.60. My unrealized profit on this trade was roughly equivalent to what I have made in all of 2008. Oh yeah, greed and adrenaline were raging. So as you probably know 102.60 was the low and shorts begin to cover at 8:30 AM EST. A half hour later I cut the position with lunch money for profits, along with EURUSD hedge with a small profit.

Do I regret the way I played it? Not at all. It was a good setup that we have been waiting for really since the March 17th low. Many pieces of the puzzle fell together in the last few days, so I was swinging for the fences on this trade. And if 102.50 broke, we were golden and I would have booked just a gigantic trade. It just wasn't meant to be. But you know what- I do not regret a single thing about the trade. And actually something very positive that I can take from this trade, is that once the position moved against me, my trading mentor's words kept ringing through my head. “Constantly reassess the situation”. Well the situation was that USDJPY was back above 102.70 April 22 lows, and the S&P's were also back above 1382 April 30th lows. My premise for being in the trade was no longer valid, so without hesitation I cut the trade with a few points profit.


The benefit of sharing my trading experiences is twofold. First, it helps me to improve as a trader because I am forced to think about my trades (both before and after the trade goes on) before putting it down on paper. Secondly, I hope that you will learn something from my experiences -both the negative the positive- and you're trading will improve as we grow together. See you next week. -TG- Forex.com

The Week Ahead updated May 9, 2008


Oil keeps moving higher, threatening growth, inflation
Oil prices gained nearly 8% this week after a US investment house issued a report suggesting a ‘super-spike’ might be unfolding that could eventually see prices rise into the $150-200/bbl range. Rebel attacks in Nigeria, which temporarily disrupted crude exports, conveniently served as a nice background accompaniment to the steady grind higher in oil. Interestingly, the surge in oil defied a larger than expected weekly US inventory increase (5.6 mio bbls vs. forecast of 1.6 mio bbls), suggesting that market speculation rather than any demand constraint is actually behind the move. This makes the recent advance generally suspect and there is a lot of talk that the rally is overdone. But there are no imminent signs of a reversal, though momentum studies are overbought and currently showing a bearish divergence, suggesting potential for a reversal lower. While oil prices continue to move higher, global growth is going to be undermined and consumer sentiment will continue to deteriorate.

Rising oil prices have been repeatedly linked to USD weakness in the mainstream financial press, but that relationship appears to have largely broken down in recent weeks. Traders are cautioned against blindly selling USD if oil prices continue to gain. As well, should oil prices begin to decline, it does not necessarily follow that the USD should gain or the EUR decline. (No doubt, should the two events transpire together, oil declines will be portrayed as the result of a stronger USD, and vice versa.) Oil is its own animal and will trade according to its own market dynamic, while other forces are at work in the FX arena.

Rather than focusing on the purported linkage between oil and the USD, traders are likely better off looking at high and rising energy prices as a major drag on global growth and a source of inflation. Higher energy costs will tend to have a disproportionate effect on US growth due to the higher energy intensity of the US compared to other economies. It goes without saying that consumer sentiment has been devastated by higher energy prices, but the real pain has yet to be felt as gasoline pump price increases look to have lagged significantly behind crude price developments. But the US consumer is not alone in feeling the pressure from high energy costs, so we’re really talking about a drag on overall global growth. From the growth perspective, then, stock markets appear increasingly fragile after a six-week recovery that is now having a serious look in the mirror and does not like what it sees.

Turning back to FX, downside breaks in global stocks due to deteriorating growth outlooks suggest that JPY-crosses, like EUR/JPY and GBP/JPY, are likely to remain under pressure in the near term. USD/JPY, in particular, flirted with a key support zone on Friday at 102.50/60, just above the Ichimoku cloud, with the top of the cloud as the next support at 102.19. A USD/JPY drop through that 102.19-50 support zone suggests a fresh push lower below 100 USD/JPY in the near future, though the base of the cloud is at 100.35-50 next week.

Higher energy and commodity prices also fuel inflation pressures and these are being acutely felt in Asia in particular, as the region continues to function as a commodity importer/manufactured goods exporter. One way countries can offset such inflationary pressures is to allow their currencies to appreciate more rapidly. China has halted Yuan appreciation over the past month, but if oil prices don’t recede soon and with April Chinese CPI to be reported on Monday, the Yuan is likely to resume gains, providing additional pressure for other Asian currencies to appreciate. Japanese officials are also less likely to resist JPY-appreciation given the sharp increase in commodity prices, again suggesting a lower USD/JPY and JPY-crosses.



Eurozone finance ministers meet next week
Eurozone finance ministers will gather on Tuesday evening for a regularly scheduled monthly meeting which will continue on Wednesday. Euro-area officials have generally welcomed the pullback of the EUR, but they clearly desire a more substantial EUR adjustment lower. I expect there will be some verbal intervention to that effect and I expect the EUR’s upside to remain limited as a result. I’m focused on the 1.5550-90 area as the likely extent of EUR/USD gains; strength beyond suggests another try at 1.6000. This past week, EUR/USD made a false break to the downside, briefly dropping to 1.5285, but then rebounding and closing above key support between 1.5300-40. Such a false break does increase the prospects for a further upside recovery in EUR/USD, and I prefer to use such strength as an opportunity to sell. Higher energy prices are also affecting European growth outlooks and the market is still in the process of marking down EUR and GBP in this light. Finally, several major Eurozone banks will be reporting 1Q earnings next week, and additional losses are likely, further souring the mood on the Continent. 1.5270/80 now looks to be the key downside trigger in EUR/USD, suggesting a test of the Ichimoku cloud base at 1.5170/80, below which sees sharper losses to the 1.48-49 area.



Risk aversion comes back with a bang
It started a week ago with a major US bank waffling on whether it would complete its buyout of the largest US mortgage lender and continued this week with a nearly $8 bio loss by a major US insurer. Credit market concerns and housing-related write downs are continuing and the only thing we can be sure of is that we can’t be sure of anything. News that the SEC will require investment banks to make greater public disclosure of capital and liquidity positions generated a horrific reaction in the markets. It was as if investors who were willfully ignoring the prospects of deeper losses suddenly realized they couldn’t breathe with their heads in the sand any longer. And on Friday, Moody’s was reporting that another major US mortgage lender might be shut off from funding by its foster-parents, leaving another smoldering wreck on the sub-prime highway.

This is not an environment conducive to investors bringing in money from the sidelines, but rather for the opposite. Risk aversion has come back yet again. Markets finally seem to be coming around to the view that even if the financial sector crisis is nearly over, which it probably isn’t, we still have a crumbling consumer-led economy that is going to be with us much longer. Higher energy prices are the icing on the cake, hastening a sharper contraction in personal consumption and threatening a much hoped-for recovery in 2H 2008. Heightened risk aversion will be another factor adding to pressure on the JPY-crosses in particular and stock markets more generally. I look to re-sell rebounds in JPY-crosses, using 160.50-161.50 in EUR/JPY and 202.00-203.00 in GBP/JPY as the preferred sell zones.


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18:07 EUR/USD: Gun Against Your Head What Do You Do?

ew York, May 9th. Sometimes, when FX markets hit neutral territory and nobody is confident about their predictions the question will arise after protestations of no preference, "Ok, gun against your head, what would you do buy or sell?" It has been quite a week for EUR/USD, it ploughed 2-mth lows, stopping conveniently at the March 11 lows, but on the topside failed to break above the 11-wk moving average at 1.5575 - the average trend cycle according to cycle gurus. The formation on the last weekly Japanese candle stick resembles close to a doji, opened Asia at 1.5435 closing New York around 1.5470, a sign of indecision and trend change.

The last time we had two consecutive closes below the 11-wk average (back in December) presaged a choppy 1.4310/1.4955 sideways chop and record highs. The dailies look bullish, yesterday's lows bouncing off daily oversold Bollingers; the monthly looks bearish, but we have a long way to go. Given the recent sovereign demand, the best bet is a rally that peaks before 1.5675 (daily Bollinger overboughts and top of the weekly normal distribution channel & 20-day M/A). Buy 'em here short term, sell rallies long term. Risk, spot remains below 11-wk M/A, rally could disappoint, sell a failure. -thomson.com /rs

欧元兑美元：主权帐户买盘增加

　越来越多的报道称主权帐户买入欧元/美元，这些买盘在破败1.5300后有所增加。欧元区经济形势恶化，可能最终影响欧央行态度，带来减息，长线交易商 认为美元利淡已经被消化，战略投资者将转为做多。欧元/美元突破1.6020再创新高的希望日益渺茫。欧元/美元现报1.5430/35。

Buy?

This software is actually developed by a Malaysian Company!

TAYOR, especially there may be GAP when market is opened in Monday!

Hello guys, .......
Congratulations to all ...... this 3ad is very very Like to me, because we do not speak about our ideas….but we make to speak our diagrams….

The market is the sovereign king ..... all the analysts and the rest does not count.

anybody wanna share their trading ideas for next week?

TAYOR, especially there may be GAP when market is opened in Monday!

TAYOR

Confluence Sign Williams %R - suggests either Oversold/Overbought
Stoichastic suggests Oversold

if not disturbing u... can i ask u where to get all that u post on... i mean #12577 post...

thx in advance...

I sense lots of PANIC action next week... PANIC ENVIRONMENT

Join the crowd or STAY ASIDE. I'll make a few Entries first... test the water. If SPIKY environment... a few SL hit on RED. I'll take a vacation from trading.

Not good... my system don't work well under IRRATIONAL condition. Learnt from mistakes... don't wanna repeat it.

Hi to all trader- Ciao Daniele-Finsbury and Malasya.http://img49.imageshack.us/img49/1886/xforumel7.jpghttp://img49.imageshack.us/img49/188...339655b2e8.jpgAfter the Bear.Trap ther'sa return in rectangle area. Only a breakout of the bleu trend dinamic,will go to top the rectangle.A return to down side and break- out, we entry in zone short.I'm a daily trader .Bye

Welcome WINDSERF(francesco)..........guys....Windserf is number one!!!!I'm very happy the your Post......I believe that all will be many contents of your analyses..........So in this post...the first cross is GBP/USD.....after....EUR/USD-GBP/JPY......please....if you can mail also an analysis of the cable...we are very happy...Thank you very much....!!!!

See you in 3ad Malasya or Investireoggi...........

Have a nice Week......!!!!!

byeeeeeeeeeeee

Yosh!

These are my trading ideas for next week:
Short EUR/GBP - less than 200 pips from the highest high
Short NZD/USD - less than 600 pips from the highest high

p/s: I like to swing