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4 Hour Strategy (MACD)

  • #14,541
  • May 9, 2008 1:26am May 9, 2008 1:26am
Again EUR had a bullish move within a correction of the last 4H price drop from a couple of days ago.

This is again a smaller timeframe 1H trending move so I was very conservative with my profit target. If I was watching the market earlier I would of entered around 5410.

Because this trade was against the 4H/Daily momentum but in tuned with the 1h/15M momentum there was a very high chance that the 1.382 extension target will not be hit - so I took 20 pips profit after price stalled and pulled back and failed to break again on a tick basis.

Again this same trending - pullback rhythm but is always changing relative to price and time.
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  • #14,542
  • May 9, 2008 1:36am May 9, 2008 1:36am
Quoting maxster
Again EUR had a bullish move within a correction of the last 4H price drop from a couple of days ago.

This is again a smaller timeframe 1H trending move so I was very conservative with my profit target. If I was watching the market earlier I would of entered around 5410.

Because this trade was against the 4H/Daily momentum but in tuned with the 1h/15M momentum there was a very high chance that the 1.382 extension target will not be hit - so I took 20 pips profit after price stalled and pulled back and failed to break again on a tick basis.

Again this same trending - pullback rhythm but is always changing relative to price and time.
Thanks. It surely shows that you understand priceaction as well. We must just be cautious for the new ones coming in for the first time and are new in forex as well for they are going to try and analyse this trade according to the 1H/4H MACD system and they might get confused. I think we must not post trades on lower timeframes less than 1H.
When we post a 1H early entry I ask that we post the 4H chart as well giving some explanation as well as to how the 1H supports the 4H entry.
Thanks for the understanding as this is not to say you were wrong at all but just to protect some of the new ones to Forex.
Thanks
Phillip
  • #14,543
  • Edited 1:59am May 9, 2008 1:42am | Edited 1:59am
At weekends i spend the mornings often looking through the history of a pairing. I have an idea or angle and pursue it through the history to see what it does. I look at the 4hr signals, and then follow on a 5 min. time frame to see exactly what the price is doing on the ground as it were. My 5min charts also have the 4hr entries on them clearly so i can see everything i need to. I have researched counter trend trades, and have made the following observations. The reason why they are risky is that the market hasnt decided that is the direction to go in. Often the trades are short, and often awkward mixed trades sometimes with no clear direction. People who take them on need to be aware that the trading conditions are going to be much harder than a trend continuation trade, where the players are agreeing with the direction, they are not fighting over it. You have to ask yourself, can i sit through this kind of trading?, it can be very tiring emotionally, and you can realise very quickly that you have made a mistake.

The only answer i can find to trading them, as i have said in a previous post, is to find a short achieveable target and exit quickly.But is it worth it? Probably not, even more so for people new to the method. The difficulty is not only trading against the trend, but the mixed and uncertain conditions and the desire to jump out again. This is where the losses occur.It is the sudden changes of direction and uncertainty which lead to loss of confidence and this is not helpful to our trading.
  • #14,544
  • May 9, 2008 1:43am May 9, 2008 1:43am
Quoting Phillip Nel
Look how the price action forming some sort of rounding tops when in a downtrend and reaching the 21ema. Look how price action has changed by making a rounded bottom at the 21ema. That green bullish bar was the confirmation of some possible upmoves to come. Maybe a close above the 21ema and a pullback and then a move to the 89sma. that is what I will be looking for on EurUsd 4H.

Edit
There is also the top TL that can act as resistance. a Zero break, Bounce of Zero and TC for going short is not excluded. Let the market shows us what it wants to do
This is my observation. Any way, it is always my dream that using 4h strategy to catch a big trend
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Plan your trades and trade your plans
  • #14,545
  • Edited 2:26am May 9, 2008 1:59am | Edited 2:26am
Quoting napeharm
At weekends i spend the mornings often looking through the history of a pairing. I have an idea or angle and pursue it through the history to see what it does. I look at the 4hr signals, and then follow on a 5 min. time frame to see exactly what the price is doing on the ground as it were. My 5min charts also have the 4hr entries on them clearly so i can see everything i need to. I have researched counter trend trades, and have made the following observations. The reason why they are risky is that the market hasnt decided that is the direction to go in. Often the trades are short, and often awkward mixed trades sometimes with no clear direction. People who take them on need to be aware that the trading conditions are going to be much harder than a trend continuation trade, where the players are agreeing with the direction, they are not fighting over it. You have to ask yourself, can i sit through this kind of trading?, it can be very tiring emotionally, and you can realise very quickly that you have made a mistake.

The only answer i can find to trading them, as i have said in a previous popst, is to find a short achieveable target and exit quickly.But is it worth it? Probably not, even more so for people new to the method. The difficulty is not only trading against the trend, but the mixed and uncertain conditions and the desire to jump out again. This is where the losses occur.It is the sudden changes of direction and uncertainty which lead to loss of confidence and this is not helpful to our trading.

Euro; Ok,not strictly a CT, ( I am just making the point) but I was unlocking my garage during the first few minutes of this new 4hr bar. I return and see a fast 5 min trade is virtually over for +20 if i had been there. What happens next? we get a -40 pip retracement which is taking out your stops.........nice. How do you sit through that!.
  • #14,546
  • May 9, 2008 2:00am May 9, 2008 2:00am
usdjpy: a TC signal will be very interesting
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  • #14,547
  • May 9, 2008 2:16am May 9, 2008 2:16am
bshadroo,

Are you waiting for the TC signal on the 4H or 1H?

Thanks.
  • #14,548
  • May 9, 2008 2:41am May 9, 2008 2:41am
gud day Mr. phil, please i need an urgent help from you or anyone for 1min & 5minutes tf m.a's. Please it shud be for eu, uj or gj.Thanks Mr. phil,thanks every one
Respect a man, and he will do all the more.
  • #14,549
  • May 9, 2008 3:18am May 9, 2008 3:18am
Quoting urchman
gud day Mr. phil, please i need an urgent help from you or anyone for 1min & 5minutes tf m.a's. Please it shud be for eu, uj or gj.Thanks Mr. phil,thanks every one
10ema
21ema
50sma
  • #14,550
  • May 9, 2008 3:34am May 9, 2008 3:34am
Quoting lemyx
bshadroo,

Are you waiting for the TC signal on the 4H or 1H?

Thanks.
im waiting for tc in H4 to stay in longer.but i'll look for smaller TFs to catch some pips also .
  • #14,551
  • May 9, 2008 4:57am May 9, 2008 4:57am
I am a little worry about this, there is big support line there, and also a little divergency. Any comment?
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Plan your trades and trade your plans
  • #14,552
  • May 9, 2008 5:03am May 9, 2008 5:03am
Quoting saka
I am a little worry about this, there is big support line there, and also a little divergency. Any comment?
It has been ranging between recent lows and 61.8 ret level, showing tails and indecision since Wednesday, I'd prefer a more pronounced bounce from 21ema.
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  • #14,553
  • May 9, 2008 5:06am May 9, 2008 5:06am
saka; I look at things slightly differantly, as you probably know. I am looking at the GBP and see little as the moment. It has stopped on my lower trendline as its low this morning. That is also the low from the previous day, which is find significant. My rule of thumb for entering a 4hr bar is to take the high/low of the bar. That keeps me out of the Euro and GBP right now. This is not part of the rules per se, but keeps me out of trouble until i can find a better way to enter when the price is this far from the high/low of the bar. I have looked at my 5 min chart for the GBP and is doesnt excite me right now. We shall see how it turns out.
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  • #14,554
  • May 9, 2008 5:18am May 9, 2008 5:18am
OK; well i did an experiment and entered the GBP, slightly late,1.9525, and exited fractionally above the low for the previous day ,my target,for +17. A better entry would gave given me another +6 or so, possibly a +25 trade there, which with one lot, would have been fine for me.
  • #14,555
  • May 9, 2008 5:20am May 9, 2008 5:20am
I have shorted gu already. 1 tp 20pips, then GU has reached this level already. I have set the others as 20pips trailing stop

My enter was based on eu which has same trend with gu thesedays. Now it has faced a daily resistant line already and I anticipate it will go down. So gu will also fall. Due to the divergency and the support line down. I set 1tp 20 pips
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Plan your trades and trade your plans
  • #14,556
  • May 9, 2008 5:22am May 9, 2008 5:22am
No one really talks about these things on the thread, which is a shame. Simple targets like this made that trade possible, and relatively safe. The 4hr signal was in my favour and the target was close to the previous low. The price will stop on the high and low for the previous day, and the 50% retracement line, and i have used them many times to take a profit safely. If i had 4 lots there instead of one and entered at the close of the bar, and exited there with all of them, i would have been +100 for the day.........you cant really complain about that!.
  • #14,557
  • May 9, 2008 5:24am May 9, 2008 5:24am
Great stuff saka. You are a modest person and successful, i like that!
  • #14,558
  • May 9, 2008 5:28am May 9, 2008 5:28am
Quoting saka
I have shorted gu already. 1 tp 20pips, then GU has reached this level already. I have set the others as 20pips trailing stop

My enter was based on eu which has same trend with gu thesedays. Now it has faced a daily resistant line already and I anticipate it will go down. So gu will also fall. Due to the divergency and the support line down. I set 1tp 20 pips
Great trade saka, I can learn a lot from your example... I didn't think of just targeting the recent lows which would have given a decent 20 pips +...
well, still learning something by watching you guys and of course the price rhythm.
  • #14,559
  • May 9, 2008 5:29am May 9, 2008 5:29am
Hi

I just finish my trade oh gbp-Usd .. have a look on thr chart
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  • #14,560
  • May 9, 2008 5:31am May 9, 2008 5:31am
Quoting napeharm
No one really talks about these things on the thread, which is a shame. Simple targets like this made that trade possible, and relatively safe. The 4hr signal was in my favour and the target was close to the previous low. The price will stop on the high and low for the previous day, and the 50% retracement line, and i have used them many times to take a profit safely. If i had 4 lots there instead of one and entered at the close of the bar, and exited there with all of them, i would have been +100 for the day.........you cant really complain about that.
As to profit target like this case. The previous 4h canle has form a tail down. You can also see gu has faced a support line which is 1.9500 these 4hs. I think risk management in a right way can prevent us from big losing. Phillip always set 1 tp as 25 pips, if the risk is bigger, he will set 20 pips, then set the other BE and trailing stop. I definitely have set 1 tp 25pips and when pirce went to this level. I thought that this would be a big trend and set 1tp bigger, then price went back and touched my sl. So I think that conservative is more better in this market.
Plan your trades and trade your plans
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