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Attachments: Scalping the pip out of it
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Scalping the pip out of it

  • #221
  • May 5, 2008 2:52pm May 5, 2008 2:52pm
It happened again,,,

the 1 2 3 happened again this morning on the 1 one minute chart, EUR/USD and i was able to pocket some profits as well.. when the market is this slow I use big lots, but i first need to make sure that there are no news coming out or that the london or new york sessions are closed...

the 40 and 64 EMA's i used them as references, as sometimes price would bounce off those 2 EMA's... if they do bounce then I cover my position...

be back in an hour to explain you more,,

Is good to be here...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: pipsrus2.GIF Size: 29 KB
  • #222
  • May 7, 2008 8:23pm May 7, 2008 8:23pm
I like what I am seeing here. I might just throw up a MACD on a 1 minute chart and start following price action. Do you only go off of a 3 cycle high/low macd or do you use normal 2 cycle high/low as well???

Please keep the charts coming. I like what I am seeing!
Thanks for manning up and showing a chart.

cheers.
  • #223
  • May 7, 2008 10:49pm May 7, 2008 10:49pm
Hi Apasionado,
I have attached a chart with a question about your technique that you posted. I am pretty sure that my number 1 example is a good example of your line. My technical question is about my example 2 where I am not sure if you would count the small fast line MA cycle high as the second of the 3 cycle MACD divergence.??

Is this a shades of grey issue? I know that I do not have any of the EMAs on the chart for reference. I just wanted to ask about the blue arrow MACD reading.

I hope to see some more of your stuff!

I REALLY LIKE THESE NEW EMOTICONS.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Sample MACD DIV 1 min chart.jpg Size: 403 KB
  • #224
  • May 7, 2008 11:13pm May 7, 2008 11:13pm
Anyone else exclusively scalp currencies late at night when the markets are closed?

I live around NY. I scalp from 7:30-12:00am. I focus on the big four and rarely mix it up with the currencies who's spreads are above 4-6.

Here is my philosophy, and I welcome all thoughts:

From 7:30-12:00am, both the US and Euro markets are closed. Theoretically, the prices shouldn't move much since there is absolutely no news hitting the markets. There should be a relatively predictable equilibrium that maintains itself a majority of the time. My goal is to look for sudden big drops that have no rational explanation whatsoever. The trickiest part is knowing when to enter. The exit seems to be pretty predictable if you trust and believe in the strategy, which I do.

Take a look at this sample pic.

http://img361.imageshack.us/img361/916/sampleii0.jpg

Is there any reason why USD/CHF went from 1.05675 to 1.06225 in a matter of fifteen minutes at 9:45 EST when markets were closed? No. And while most people might see a very interesting and tempting uptrend, I saw an unexplainable swing and betted that it would return. I was right, and I closed down soon after for a nice profit.

I admit - I haven't been in this game that long, and I just started posting here so there is no reason to listen to me yet, but I am doing real well so far and things seem to be working out in a favorable way. At best, I bring a different point of view to the forum and I look forward to hearing the opinions of people who might have more knowledge or shared techniques.

Thanks!
  • #225
  • May 7, 2008 11:32pm May 7, 2008 11:32pm
The Walrus said:Anyone else exclusively scalp currencies late at night when the markets are closed?

I live around NY. I scalp from 7:30-12:00am. I focus on the big four and rarely mix it up with the currencies who's spreads are above 4-6.

Here is my philosophy, and I welcome all thoughts:

From 7:30-12:00am, both the US and Euro markets are closed. Theoretically, the prices shouldn't move much since there is absolutely no news hitting the markets. There should be a relatively predictable equilibrium that maintains itself a majority of the time. My goal is to look for sudden big drops that have no rational explanation whatsoever. The trickiest part is knowing when to enter. The exit seems to be pretty predictable if you trust and believe in the strategy, which I do.

I definitely can appreciate the logic there. I trade whenever I can, most of which is off hours. What I tend to find is a rhythmic consolidating oscillation during closed markets. I trade mostly Yen crosses because they move more than major pairs in thin liquidity.

Do you just trade price action??? If you do congrats. That is some cowboy techniques.

Nice to meet you.

I would love to hear more about how you technically enter into trades
  • #226
  • May 8, 2008 12:03pm May 8, 2008 12:03pm
Hello Piitb, you might remember me from post 196, 199. I was scalping a short on e/j, and guess what happened... Literally straight up.. Well I thought I didn't have anything to offer this thread but I have had a change of mind. It's called "WHAT NOT TO DO WHEN TRADING". I rode this bull for 7 days because I knew it was coming back... 7 days later it came back... I now have raw balls and saddle sores riding the most ignorant thing I could have done in this business. The draw down, confusion, and mere stupidity, not to mention the raw balls riding a bull for 7 days, is "WHAT NOT TO DO WHEN TRADING". Great journal, and to think I thought I had nothing to offer..
  • #227
  • May 8, 2008 12:07pm May 8, 2008 12:07pm
Quoting miketodd
Hello Piitb, you might remember me from post 196, 199. I was scalping a short on e/j, and guess what happened... Literally straight up.. Well I thought I didn't have anything to offer this thread but I have had a change of mind. It's called "WHAT NOT TO DO WHEN TRADING". I rode this bull for 7 days because I knew it was coming back... 7 days later it came back... I now have raw balls and saddle sores riding the most ignorant thing I could have done in this business. The draw down, confusion, and mere stupidity, not to mention the raw balls riding a bull for 7 days, is "WHAT NOT TO DO WHEN TRADING". Great journal, and to think I thought I had nothing to offer..

HEHEHE I LOVE IT! This is just the kind of sh!!t you have to go through to learn this market. I remember that trade. It did break about 40 pips short but directly turned around and shot up.

There is a nice trade setting up I will attach a chart in my next post. Tell me what you think
  • #228
  • May 8, 2008 12:16pm May 8, 2008 12:16pm
What I have here is a pretty good trade setup in my humble opinion. Price may not ever engage my entry but I try to look ahead in this market for entries:nerd:
There are overlapping fibonacci's . One from the long run down. The other an extension from the short move back up.

I have attached a 15 min and 4hr. Not the usual 5 min and 15.

You can see that on the 4 hr chart the fib level is at a major SWING LOW!!

The other key point here is that we are in a downtrend. Also using a little jedi mind trick I can infer that if price moves up 50 pips from here Stochs will be over bought and it will be a great time for a collapse

Price may never go back up but it is a good look I think.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Trade Setup 5 8 08 EJ.jpg Size: 556 KB
  • #229
  • May 8, 2008 12:44pm May 8, 2008 12:44pm
Piitb, had to leave for 10 minutes, just saw a short on e/j, took it, got a few pips, now looking at your charts..
  • #230
  • May 8, 2008 12:56pm May 8, 2008 12:56pm
Piitb, I like your fib direction, I like even more the 50 point move to put e/j in overbought territory... I now think it's heading up but predicting e/j is like predicting a 5 day wheather forcast, each day closer to the target creates more room for excuses as to why it didn't end up cloudy with thunderstorms, but hot and sunny...
  • #231
  • May 8, 2008 1:03pm May 8, 2008 1:03pm
Quoting miketodd
Piitb, I like your fib direction, I like even more the 50 point move to put e/j in overbought territory... I now think it's heading up but predicting e/j is like predicting a 5 day wheather forcast, each day closer to the target creates more room for excuses as to why it didn't end up cloudy with thunderstorms, but hot and sunny...


Well put
  • #232
  • May 8, 2008 5:09pm May 8, 2008 5:09pm
Quoting Piitb
Do you just trade price action??? If you do congrats. That is some cowboy techniques.
Right now I look for irrational movements in periods of time when the currency is sleeping aka when the markets are closed. There should be no news that seriously impacts USD or EUR at 9pm EST. So I look for sudden big swings and bet that they will return to an equilibrium. It worked so well that at first I thought I was a prodigy. My first 70 trades resulted in positive cashflow. I started getting ahead of myself and lost some trying to look for bigger swings or longer periods of time (like trend following) but I didn't seem to be good at that. So, I returned to scalping.

Quote
Nice to meet you.

You too

Quote
I would love to hear more about how you technically enter into trades

The entrance is the tricky part. For instance a quick run-up of, lets just say 30 pips, in 5 minutes for no reason means to me that it should return down. There's no justification. But it might in fact run up 50 pips, so normally if I first sold at 30 I would double-dip aka open a second sell as it continues to ride and I've been lucky enough to have the majority of my trades return after 20mins to an hour. I find in circumstances like that I tend to make even more money because I trust the strategy and make profits on two trades, one naturally bigger than the other.

I seem to be much better shorting/selling.
  • #233
  • May 8, 2008 5:24pm May 8, 2008 5:24pm
Walrus, do you trade this naked? No indicators. I thoroughly enjoy piitb's style of trading, but like I myself trade as cowboy as possible. If I could incorporate the 2 strategies together then I would have more time to play golf rather than write in a forum.....
  • #234
  • May 8, 2008 8:59pm May 8, 2008 8:59pm
Quoting miketodd
Walrus, do you trade this naked? No indicators. I thoroughly enjoy piitb's style of trading, but like I myself trade as cowboy as possible. If I could incorporate the 2 strategies together then I would have more time to play golf rather than write in a forum.....
I take a few things into account. General trends for the last few days using a 15-30 minute chart, other currencies (i.e. if USD is going down in one basket significantly by staying the same in all others), but mostly I look for big noticeable spikes that don't belong.

Here is an example of what I generally look for:

http://img81.imageshack.us/img81/2338/sample2yj4.jpg

Notice that... right when the US markets closed... the currency generally traded within an equilibrium for a few hours... but for some unsubstantiated reason, it shot up a significant amount in the span of about five minutes? I sold it when I saw the spike... and as you can see, it eventually came back down into the "center".

That explain it a bit?
  • #235
  • May 8, 2008 9:11pm May 8, 2008 9:11pm
Nice... My next question was going to be what time frame? I assume it's the 5 to 30 min.
  • #236
  • May 8, 2008 9:17pm May 8, 2008 9:17pm
Quoting miketodd
Nice... My next question was going to be what time frame? I assume it's the 5 to 30 min.

I actually use the minute time frame almost exclusively. I bump it up to 15 or 30 minutes just to see the general trends of the evening. But I would assume that in order to scalp aka take short term gains, a lot of the long-term information would be useless since the technical aspects differ.

What strategy works best for you?
  • #237
  • May 8, 2008 11:39pm May 8, 2008 11:39pm
Quoting TheWalrus

The entrance is the tricky part. For instance a quick run-up of, lets just say 30 pips, in 5 minutes for no reason means to me that it should return down. There's no justification. But it might in fact run up 50 pips, so normally if I first sold at 30 I would double-dip aka open a second sell as it continues to ride and I've been lucky enough to have the majority of my trades return after 20mins to an hour. I find in circumstances like that I tend to make even more money because I trust the strategy and make profits on two trades, one naturally bigger than the other.

I seem to be much better shorting/selling.

I have a confession to make. And I must disclaim this to my viewers that I do not suggest this!! I took a long position for wednesday on the GJ. Price immediately turned against me so I doubled down. Price kept going against me so I added a thrid, and finally added a fourth at the bottom some time before rollover. Not the happiest idea.

The reason that I stayed for it all was because it was the end of a session winding down. Price had already put in its daily range, and it was wednesday so it was triple interest. I also had some indicators going my way.

Blah blah blah. Long story short, I was able to average out my postion on the last surge before rollover. I covered my average and killed it on the carry.

The main idea behind this is elasticity ranges. When you are in a market that had done its daily range it is very probably that price will consolidate, So averaging down against positions can save you a lot of lost spread from getting in and out at a loss.I like your idea of taking advantage of elasticity ranges by trading off session. I had someone bring this up to me years ago and I thought they were crazy, Back when i thought i still knew everything

So do you mostly trade in the direction of the trend? Have ever gotten burned badly averaging a position??

I blew a whole account one time doing that. hehehe. Price sometimes never comes back. Literally the whole account on one trade. Good thing it was my own money.

I would love to hear success/fail stories from anyone brave enough to post!!!
  • #238
  • May 10, 2008 7:02pm May 10, 2008 7:02pm
Quoting Piitb
I have a confession to make. And I must disclaim this to my viewers that I do not suggest this!! I took a long position for wednesday on the GJ. Price immediately turned against me so I doubled down. Price kept going against me so I added a thrid, and finally added a fourth at the bottom some time before rollover. Not the happiest idea.
I've only been burned once doing this, but that was when I was aiming for long term trending. I'm not good at following trends, but I seem to be very good at short price movements and... literally... scalping the pip out of irrational short term swings during times of poor liquidity.

Double dipping is more risky, but with more risk comes more reward. It's tough.. I try not to do it often

Quote
I like your idea of taking advantage of elasticity ranges by trading off session. I had someone bring this up to me years ago and I thought they were crazy, Back when i thought i still knew everything

So do you mostly trade in the direction of the trend? Have ever gotten burned badly averaging a position??
I've had incredible luck for the few weeks I've done this. At one point I closed down 70 straight trades positive in a period of 5 nights. Logic would dictate that it wasn't "luck", but a strategy that was working well. I'm literally scalping 4-7 pips at a time, never trying to be greedy and always comfortable with modest stop losses.

I don't necessarily bet for or against trends but I take a look at the trend of the past day or two to see where the currency was headed to most day. I try to factor that in my decision: is it slowly trending down? If so, I might expect a shorter rebound on a big dip.


Quote
I blew a whole account one time doing that. hehehe. Price sometimes never comes back. Literally the whole account on one trade. Good thing it was my own money.

I would love to hear success/fail stories from anyone brave enough to post!!!
Ouch! I'm hoping to double my money in a month and then withdraw my contributed capital and play with house money.

I'd also love to hear from anyone who focuses on elasticity during off session hours...
  • #239
  • May 11, 2008 2:39am May 11, 2008 2:39am
Hi TheWalrus,

That's some great stuff Keep it up and I wish you success with it.
I'll defenitely look into it myself, problem is for me that's mostly the middle of the night... What's the full range of hours that you trade this ? Like about a couple of hours after NY close till about a couple before London open, I assume ?

Thanks
On the path to Enrichment.
  • #240
  • May 13, 2008 12:35pm May 13, 2008 12:35pm
Piitb, where you at..... We need some piitb attitude around here...
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