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Drawing correct resistance and support-lines

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  • #1,601
  • May 8, 2008 1:22am May 8, 2008 1:22am
Quoting aediaz1

In my experience, double tops have proven to increase the probability for reversal by a significant amount as shown on 4h chart here;
Reversal it was by 500 pips. Price landed on support for now. Shall we see 198 or 209 first ?
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Measure twice, cut once
  • #1,602
  • May 8, 2008 1:26am May 8, 2008 1:26am
And look at e/u. Really interesting development to the downside. I didn't see price going down below this support but I couldn't be more wrong. Unless this is a fake-out like e/u loves to do. If not, this drop should be significant.
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Measure twice, cut once
  • #1,603
  • May 8, 2008 2:33am May 8, 2008 2:33am
Quoting aediaz1
And look at e/u. Really interesting development to the downside. I didn't see price going down below this support but I couldn't be more wrong. Unless this is a fake-out like e/u loves to do. If not, this drop should be significant.
Good morning Aediaz,
I am expecting the E/U to go up, but it is not ready to move yet. When I look at the G/J Daily it really looks down. I am just watching now.
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  • #1,604
  • May 8, 2008 6:21am May 8, 2008 6:21am
I have to sign off. I waited for the BOE rate announcement. I had a gain of 28 pips, but I believe it will continue down. Have a good day of trading.
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  • #1,605
  • May 8, 2008 3:42pm May 8, 2008 3:42pm
Quoting Dcb
Good morning Aediaz,
I am expecting the E/U to go up, but it is not ready to move yet. When I look at the G/J Daily it really looks down. I am just watching now.
Late respond, haven't been around today. Seems like you where right. G/J going down and e/u haven't decided yet.
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Measure twice, cut once
  • #1,606
  • May 9, 2008 2:40am May 9, 2008 2:40am
Looks like price is heading for 198.20 area on G/J.

E/u closed above daily support so let's see how price reacts to 4h TL.

See you guys later.
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Measure twice, cut once
  • #1,607
  • May 9, 2008 2:43am May 9, 2008 2:43am
Quoting aediaz1
Late respond, haven't been around today. Seems like you where right. G/J going down and e/u haven't decided yet.
Aediaz,
It is decision time for the E/U. Will it go up, or will it hit my TL and go down? GJ still wants to go down.
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  • #1,608
  • May 9, 2008 5:16am May 9, 2008 5:16am
Hello Aediaz,
Check my thougts about the U/C. I am thinking it should go down, and the first target will be 100 pips. Of course, it can go up from where it is now, and move up pips. Time will tell. How would you play this?
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  • #1,609
  • May 9, 2008 5:19am May 9, 2008 5:19am
Good day,

look at USD/CHF, seems that its time to go down?
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  • #1,610
  • May 9, 2008 5:32am May 9, 2008 5:32am
Quoting sDRs
Good day,

look at USD/CHF, seems that its time to go down?
Hi sDRs,
Thank you for your observation. I agree. I sold the U/C at 1.04251. Time will tell if we are correct.
  • #1,611
  • May 9, 2008 6:25am May 9, 2008 6:25am
Looks like cable is going in the same direction, failed to brake upper line, should try to seek for new lows
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  • #1,612
  • May 9, 2008 7:18am May 9, 2008 7:18am
Have a look....
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  • #1,613
  • May 9, 2008 9:03am May 9, 2008 9:03am
Complete fakeout...

E/J bounced back over support...
  • #1,614
  • May 9, 2008 10:53am May 9, 2008 10:53am
Well another lesson learned. I was so confident with my trade of selling the U/C that I left it open even though I would have trouble monitoring it. I was able to look at it after the U.S. trade balance report came out. I saw the trade was going against me so I was able to close my position at 1.04340, about a 9 pip loss. I usually trade only the first 3 or 4 hours of the London session, and I always close my position regardless of price action no later than 11:30 GMT. After that it is very difficult to look at the trade. I did not do that today, and shame on me. Oh, well, Monday we start again, and do it right. Have a great weekend.
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  • #1,615
  • May 9, 2008 6:33pm May 9, 2008 6:33pm
Hi Aediaz, DCB and every one else,

Can any one tell if there is a rule of thumb for fake breaks? Is there any indication? Perhaps Stochastics being at its limit while at the breaking point?

One other thing dcb, I am not sure, but the break might of have pulled back due to the news???? (not sure, because it would not make much sense...)

Wish you all the best.

Jupiter.
  • #1,616
  • May 11, 2008 6:09am May 11, 2008 6:09am
Quoting Dcb
Aediaz,
It is decision time for the E/U. Will it go up, or will it hit my TL and go down? GJ still wants to go down.
Hi

On 4h TL we still got some space for the upside. For the long-term, as long as we stay above daily support, longs are in favor, IMO.

Double top on G/j have played along really well so far. I'm looking for price to hit down on 198.20 area and then re-evaluate.
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Measure twice, cut once
  • #1,617
  • May 11, 2008 6:24am May 11, 2008 6:24am
Quoting Dcb
Hello Aediaz,
Check my thougts about the U/C. I am thinking it should go down, and the first target will be 100 pips. Of course, it can go up from where it is now, and move up pips. Time will tell. How would you play this?
This could of course go both ways, but I will follow 1h chart to might get a clue on where/how the next leg in this pair develop. If 1h triangle breaks we might see price head down to 4h TL. I saw you had s/r levels on your charts so I only post mine with some TL if it helps;
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Measure twice, cut once
  • #1,618
  • May 11, 2008 6:41am May 11, 2008 6:41am
Quoting sDRs
Looks like cable is going in the same direction, failed to brake upper line, should try to seek for new lows
Got wedge on 4h. If we look at daily we have more room to the downside. Been channeling downward slowly since end of February;
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Measure twice, cut once
  • #1,619
  • May 11, 2008 1:56pm May 11, 2008 1:56pm
Quoting jupiter_peak
Hi Aediaz, DCB and every one else,

Can any one tell if there is a rule of thumb for fake breaks? Is there any indication? Perhaps Stochastics being at its limit while at the breaking point?

One other thing dcb, I am not sure, but the break might of have pulled back due to the news???? (not sure, because it would not make much sense...)

Wish you all the best.

Jupiter.
Fake breakouts do happen from time to time thats why SL is so important.

If you suffer from many fake breakouts, I would consider larger TF or look on how you draw your lines. A great tip Umairs gave us was; take picture of your charts from every trade you take. Use it as an research-tool and go back and study hard on what went wrong with your trades. In most cases you had missed something.

I haven't found any indicator which could reduce potential fake breakouts but it would be interesting if someone found any useful indicators to "measure" breakouts.
Measure twice, cut once
  • #1,620
  • Edited 7:32pm May 11, 2008 6:22pm | Edited 7:32pm
Quoting aediaz1
Got wedge on 4h. If we look at daily we have more room to the downside. Been channeling downward slowly since end of February;

Cable:
I could be wrong, but this is my GBP/USD analysis:

D1 - Broke LTL this last week and just rebounded from the 4H LTL. Should go up for today. Down for tomorrow.... It should be limited by a strong LTL for this week that should bring it back up(support).

H4 - Got falling wedge but there's still room to go down. It should go down for a few more candles and then back up. Limited by Daily Strong LTL (support).

H1 - Falling wedge with still some room to go down. It should go up some time during this week.

Lets see how it plays out.

Jupiter.
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