4 Hour Strategy (MACD)

Quoting Palmer

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Paris:

I believe there were a few folks here that did go over a year or so of charts but only looked at the 'main' signals such as bounces off the 21 for a TC signal, etc. You may have to scroll through the thread or repost thi is a few days so enough people can see it. I remember reading that post(s) but can't put my finger on who did the backtest. There is a year's worth (2007) of 4hr and 1hr charts in pdf format on the website with the indicators plotted on them that you can download and print out, that might help a little.

There are certain people that only trade certain pairs so they may be able to chime in on those. This method is solid but it takes some time to recognize the high probability setups. I did have a trade, a bounce off the 89, that gave me 866 pips after a few weeks so I'm kind of biases as to 'yes you can make 300 pips a month' with this method.

On thing to remember is that this is a 4 hour method and it can take some time (a few days) for things to set up correctly for a trade. The patience and discipline to wait for this to happen MUST be part of you trading plan.

I've been absorbing Phillip's 5min system for the past several weeks and plan to be back here (like I was) in June. But, even with the 5min system the patience factor still has to be there as far as waiting for the correct set-up.

Hope some of this helps...

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Quoting napeharm

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Phil; I had another excellent day with the method, thanks for that!.

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Quoting Phillip Nel

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The answer is in the backtesting. When doing backtesting to see if the system works you dont take news into account. So that means that for the system to work it means that it must supports news. Therefore I only stay away from interest rates and NFP news. I will use the news as to how far it will take the price depending on the severity of the news

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Quoting Palmer

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kylekim:

No, I don't mind at all. But, more pips or more money? As far as the probability goes, because both of these methods are discretionary (not 100% black and white although the 5min is more systematical) so I limit myself to only taking the best set-ups or high probability entries. Such as on the 4hr when the price action is around the 21 or on the 5min when price has come back into the zone with the ADX screaming at me to do this or that. The money management and risk aspect of things is the same no matter what the timeframe because your account balance at the open of either trade is the same.

For me, I only follow the EURUSD and the USDJPY on the 4hr method to limit myself to only look for the clear set-ups and to avoid trade hunting by watching too many pairs. On the 5min method, these two pairs plus the USDGBP and the EURJPY. I have a 2 pip spread with all of the majors with ODL so this 'works' for me.

For about the past two months I have really been centered with th 5min method because of the simplicity of it all. It only takes me a few moments to see the set-up at any given time. With the 4hr method this can take me a lot longer. Sometimes I have let the charts just play out without even touching the mouse button. For me it's a matter of being in tune with the 4hr chart to make sure that I can see the rhythm, where the 5min in more 'black and white'. I added an ADX filter that has worked really well. I look for one trade a day from about 6am to noon CST USA and that's it. I look for the best, or what I feel is the best, set-up with these 4 pairs and just go with it. About 2 weeks ago things started coming together and I have put together a string of 12 winners in a row. My target is 5 pips on the first entry and no worse than b/e on the second. I have a lot of leave coming up in June and for the majority of that time I will be in front of the PC not only to take my one trade for the day but to also watch a re-entry pattern that I have been looking at for a possible 2 to 3 trade per NY morning session. This is important because I can't monitor the charts from work and if one of my goals is to do this for income there is really only one way to figure out if it's possible. But, I'll be back 'in touch' with the 4hr method sometime in June.

Sorry to ramble, but back to your original question. I think my best ending month with the 4hr method was about 1200 pips or so, this included closing out an 866 pips run. There's no way that I'll ever put in 1000 pip month on the 5min method if I'm only looking for 5pips per trade per day. But, I go in 'heavy' on the 5min method where one pip can be worth $20 or $30, etc. but my risk per trade or % risk of my account is the same as it is on the 4hr method. On the 4hr method I usually go in with 3 positions and take profit along the way. But, because I am so selective with the 4hr, it can take 3 or 4 days for a trade to set-up whereas on the 5min there is always 1 set-up every day. So in terms of which method makes more pips per month, it's the 4hr. In terms of money it's about the same.

Hope some of this helps...

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Quoting Phillip Nel

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You can give an expert a weak system and he will still manage something out of it, or you can give a good system to a nonexpert and he will ruin it. It all depends on the person if he wants to make it works. If it works for you I can only say well done as you made it work by hard work because this system takes hard work.
Phillip

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