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4 Hour Strategy (MACD)

  • #14,361
  • May 6, 2008 7:36am May 6, 2008 7:36am
I didnt take this trade on the Euro. I have looked at it for some hours now and still wouldnt have taken it. I post this chart again because the thick black line says 'Go Away' to me as does the 40sma i use. However, as Phil showed, there were afew pips there to put in your pocket........but it also shows the system throws up the odd marginal trade.
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  • #14,362
  • May 6, 2008 7:47am May 6, 2008 7:47am
Quoting napeharm
I didnt take this trade on the Euro. I have looked at it for some hours now and still wouldnt have taken it. I post this chart again because the thick black line says 'Go Away' to me as does the 40sma i use. However, as Phil showed, there were afew pips there to put in your pocket........but it also shows the system throws up the odd marginal trade.
Hi that "go-away" black line is the same reason I didn't get in as I already mentioned.

Last month I took a couple of trades in that sort of situation and got hurt on both, so prefer not to get in and am happy to have stayed out.
  • #14,363
  • May 6, 2008 7:53am May 6, 2008 7:53am
brettbox;Quite so. This was a marginal one depending i think on your confidence in handling it if it goes pear shaped. It really does say no trade, and is not the breakout we are looking for. Perhaps the interest rate decisions later in the week are weighing on people.
  • #14,364
  • May 6, 2008 7:55am May 6, 2008 7:55am
My entry was slightly different, my chart is GMT +1.

I thought the inverse head & shoulders & bullish divergence noted yesterday was working out, as well as 365 support. Heavy S/R level in region of 1.5535, so put in an order to buy at 1.5542, SL at 1.5522 (20 pips & also below 21ema of 5 min chart). My thinking was if price moved above 1.5540, then the trade was high probability. What I failed to take account was that the closing candle on the 4hr (which closed at 13:00 GMT on my chart) closed at 1.5333, i.e. below the proven resistance. I allowed my pending trade to open and then obviously watched it fall apart! Ooops!!

Closed half at 1.5538, and half again at 1.5535 leaving quarter running. Stopped out.

But, I haven't rejected the idea of the long, believe it is still a potentially valid trade and may re-enter. Depends on activity around 1.5535 area again. If price falls back below 21ema on 4 hr chart then I will obviously re-consider.
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May all your pips grow into great big fruitful trees
  • #14,365
  • May 6, 2008 8:05am May 6, 2008 8:05am
Hey,R.

Yup its a tinker right enough. On my 5 min chart the approximate 40sma from the 4hr is bang on 1.5542, so the price will need to break that. But to me has looked tired for awhile and lethargic. Commiserations on your trade.(you know, i had to look that one up in the dictionary!).
  • #14,366
  • May 6, 2008 8:27am May 6, 2008 8:27am
Thanks Napeharm, yes, it is rather tired.

I did re-enter for +10 pips then closed as not convinced. At least it made up in part for the loss. I'm still struggling with losses and the emotions that come with it, and to re-enter was a test of strength for me! I passed that little test but not with flying colours... I am still shaking!

I know I will get through this, I have absolute faith in this system - it's handling my own trades & my fears that requires a bit more faith from me! I'm getting stronger each time I enter a trade, whether it wins or loses. I shall leave it here and get a nice cup of tea in the garden now, settle my frayed nerves!!
May all your pips grow into great big fruitful trees
  • #14,367
  • May 6, 2008 8:29am May 6, 2008 8:29am
Quoting Phillip Nel
With a tail like that I expected the price to move much quicker to at least 25-30pips gain. When it stayed between 1.5500 and 1.5520 for some time I decided to close 50% after 15-20pips.
Price has retraced but I still favour the upmove. The +20 profit on 50% and -20stoploss on the remainder is a very defensive approach when uncertain but still give your decision a chance to mature with a BE at worst.
Right, I also anticipate this is the start of bullish of eu this week. Hope I can hold it a little longer.

I have close 50% with 25pips, set remainder with -25 sl
Plan your trades and trade your plans
  • #14,368
  • May 6, 2008 9:10am May 6, 2008 9:10am
Boy I am out of tune with the market movement today - good thing I didn't put on any trades.

From now on I am not trading if I am not feeling well - I even overlooked the thing I look for day in day out - price bouncing from previous day's support levels. For me not seeing that is like not knowing how to walk!!

Good night all.
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  • #14,369
  • May 6, 2008 9:13am May 6, 2008 9:13am
I took a small hit of -7 on a 5 min Euro trade,and then made another +22.
  • #14,370
  • May 6, 2008 9:46am May 6, 2008 9:46am
If I was'nt in the EurUsd trade I would have done this one. (Closed EurUsd at 1.5574 for Average gain of (20+50)/2 = +35).

Look at the emotion involved with the graph. It is begging to be traded.

Edit 1
+25 allready so BE was worst case.
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  • #14,371
  • May 6, 2008 11:05am May 6, 2008 11:05am
Quoting irusoh
I posted a new version of MACD colored indicator on my thread
This one includes signals showing on the indicator and alerts.
Alerts can be emailed. Repeated alerts can be specified on the same singal at predefined intervals.
It includes doc describing new features.
Post me on my thread with questions and such.
Could anyone show me how to add Zero Break in irusoh's http://www.forexfactory.com/images/attach/mq4.gif MACD_Colored_v103.mq4 indicator? Currently there is a "zero line bounce" alert in it. Since I barely know coding, I found I couldn't even understand the logic when I was trying to change zero line bounce to Zero Break. Please kindly show me which line of code I need to change and change to what. Thanks a lot.
  • #14,372
  • May 6, 2008 11:52am May 6, 2008 11:52am
Quoting axdw745
Could anyone show me how to add Zero Break in irusoh's http://www.forexfactory.com/images/attach/mq4.gif MACD_Colored_v103.mq4 indicator? Currently there is a "zero line bounce" alert in it. Since I barely know coding, I found I couldn't even understand the logic when I was trying to change zero line bounce to Zero Break. Please kindly show me which line of code I need to change and change to what. Thanks a lot.
axdw, --Give us a better understanding of what you've studied in this thread. It looks like you're emphasizing the wrong thing. You need to be able to recognize the various MACD formations just by looking at them. Go to page 1 on this thread, and study the PDF that introduces this system. Then, either listen to Phillip's thirteen lessons in mp3 form or read the written copies of them. You can find their location in the index on that same page 1. You can also find them on Palmer's website, http://www.fxtradeblog.com. You'll begin to see that the MACD signals are only part of a much richer system, involving how price reacts to the moving averages, to trend lines, and how candle formations combined with support and resistance help you to decide whether to take a MACD signal or not. After you've gone that far, I think you might find that you want to read further into the thread. There's so much richness spread throughout it, and you'll find the answer to just about any question you could think to ask. Good luck. --Tony
  • #14,373
  • May 6, 2008 12:05pm May 6, 2008 12:05pm
Quoting Phillip Nel
If I was'nt in the EurUsd trade I would have done this one. (Closed EurUsd at 1.5574 for Average gain of (20+50)/2 = +35).

Look at the emotion involved with the graph. It is begging to be traded.

Edit 1
+25 allready so BE was worst case.

Good eye spotting that H&S

I was already in due to it breaking resistance at 1.9750
  • #14,374
  • May 6, 2008 12:16pm May 6, 2008 12:16pm
finnaly breaks the daily TL and im waitnig for a TC in H4
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  • #14,375
  • May 6, 2008 1:17pm May 6, 2008 1:17pm
This thread has been around a long time so the system must work and be consistent. I'm looking at pairs EUR/USD, cable and EUR/JPY. Does anyone have any back tests or foward tests for these 3 pairs for the past couple of years on the 4 hr. or daily time frames? How many pips is it averaging per month? And has it encountered any losing months for the 3 pairs? Any answers are appreciated. Thanks, Paris
  • #14,376
  • May 6, 2008 3:26pm May 6, 2008 3:26pm
Quoting Paris Hilton
This thread has been around a long time so the system must work and be consistent. I'm looking at pairs EUR/USD, cable and EUR/JPY. Does anyone have any back tests or foward tests for these 3 pairs for the past couple of years on the 4 hr. or daily time frames? How many pips is it averaging per month? And has it encountered any losing months for the 3 pairs? Any answers are appreciated. Thanks, Paris
Firstly the system is only consistant and works because you have traded it and know these things, anything else is just guessing. If you had traded it or read about it and understood it, the answers to your questions would be apparent. This thread is not a numbers game but one of experience and effort and understanding.This is above all not the same as threads you may have visited before.That is why your questions are irelevant. If your are actually interested in this method, read it, and make your own mind up instead of relying on 'results'. I suspect you are in the wrong place if these are your concerns my friend.
  • #14,377
  • May 6, 2008 4:17pm May 6, 2008 4:17pm
Let me add to the comments.
Trading is tough. I've been doing it for 8 years of necessity since I'm retired and supporting expensive homes.
I've worked out futures and stock trading systems that work. Trade them everyday.
Forex has been tough until I landed on this site.
It's still work to grasp everything on here.
But it works. Cut down on the stop risk and take profits.
  • #14,378
  • May 6, 2008 4:43pm May 6, 2008 4:43pm
Perhaps you can share some of your futures systems? I understand if you don't want to share stock systems since most profitable stocks systems trade not very liquid entities, but futures should be liquid enough for you not to mind sharing....

Quoting mdowd
Let me add to the comments.
Trading is tough. I've been doing it for 8 years of necessity since I'm retired and supporting expensive homes.
I've worked out futures and stock trading systems that work. Trade them everyday.
Forex has been tough until I landed on this site.
It's still work to grasp everything on here.
But it works. Cut down on the stop risk and take profits.
  • #14,379
  • May 6, 2008 5:21pm May 6, 2008 5:21pm
No problem.
There is a book called The Logical trader by Mark B Fisher. He is and was an oil trader on the NYMEX. It works. But not on the index futures. Only on oil and derivatives and and metals. maybe on grains.
The secret is the variable on the buy-or sell calculation which he doesn't disclose. From the internet I discovered that it was the opening range plus or minus 10% of the ATR.
Try it. It was profitable today. Lightly. But overall it works.
  • #14,380
  • May 6, 2008 6:13pm May 6, 2008 6:13pm
Quoting Paris Hilton
This thread has been around a long time so the system must work and be consistent. I'm looking at pairs EUR/USD, cable and EUR/JPY. Does anyone have any back tests or foward tests for these 3 pairs for the past couple of years on the 4 hr. or daily time frames? How many pips is it averaging per month? And has it encountered any losing months for the 3 pairs? Any answers are appreciated. Thanks, Paris
Paris:

I believe there were a few folks here that did go over a year or so of charts but only looked at the 'main' signals such as bounces off the 21 for a TC signal, etc. You may have to scroll through the thread or repost thi is a few days so enough people can see it. I remember reading that post(s) but can't put my finger on who did the backtest. There is a year's worth (2007) of 4hr and 1hr charts in pdf format on the website with the indicators plotted on them that you can download and print out, that might help a little.

There are certain people that only trade certain pairs so they may be able to chime in on those. This method is solid but it takes some time to recognize the high probability setups. I did have a trade, a bounce off the 89, that gave me 866 pips after a few weeks so I'm kind of biases as to 'yes you can make 300 pips a month' with this method.

On thing to remember is that this is a 4 hour method and it can take some time (a few days) for things to set up correctly for a trade. The patience and discipline to wait for this to happen MUST be part of you trading plan.

I've been absorbing Phillip's 5min system for the past several weeks and plan to be back here (like I was) in June. But, even with the 5min system the patience factor still has to be there as far as waiting for the correct set-up.

Hope some of this helps...
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