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4 Hour Strategy (MACD)

  • #14,341
  • May 6, 2008 5:12am May 6, 2008 5:12am
Quoting Yorik
What do you people think about EURUSD now? It has formed a TC (actually counter-trend, but from broken EMA21), I haven't entered on bar's close - watching and waiting for a possible retracement to about 1.55. What about you?
Price just went down 80pips then up 80 pips that is risky ranging movement

I would wait for clarity .....

You can't just look at the MACD and use R:R to filter signals - watch price itself and its movement and rhythm then use MACD as trigger with R:R when the price movement is ideal.
  • #14,342
  • Edited 9:42am May 6, 2008 5:14am | Edited 9:42am
EurUsd
I have to believe in the system. That tail tells me the odds may be good. Stoploss I have set 33 pips down as I believe the tail has done the damage.

The reason for the trade is I like trading tails at the right place. This was a pullback to the breakout TL and that price has closed above the 21ema and pulled back to it(below it and went above it with a tail) satisfying the rule that says it might go to the 89sma.

The price action worries me a bit as it went down and up some distance. Lets see if this one is going to work.

I have to believe the system otherwise my word is not worth it.

Entered 1.5524
SL 1.5491
TP 1.5595+

Edit 1.
Closed 50% after 20pips. Set remainder to -20pips for BE at worst

Edit 2
Price went through 1.5550 so set remainder on 30 trailing stop.

Edit 3
Closed out at 1.5574

Average gain (+20+50)/2 = +35
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #14,343
  • May 6, 2008 5:23am May 6, 2008 5:23am
GBPUSD also formed a tail
  • #14,344
  • May 6, 2008 5:28am May 6, 2008 5:28am
Phil; .......' i have to believe the system otherwise my word is not worth it!'


Hahahahahaha........nice one Phil!......all systems are tempered by common sense!.
  • #14,345
  • May 6, 2008 5:34am May 6, 2008 5:34am
Quoting napeharm
Phil; .......' i have to believe the system otherwise my word is not worth it!'


Hahahahahaha........nice one Phil!......all systems are tempered by common sense!.
Agree. But if the guy walking in front is constantly looking backwards with fear in his eyes I will wait till he looks in front again and if he decides to look back again I am not goint to be there anymore.
  • #14,346
  • May 6, 2008 5:38am May 6, 2008 5:38am
Quite so, quite so.......
  • #14,347
  • May 6, 2008 5:39am May 6, 2008 5:39am
Hey! this threads starting to be fun..........you will have to give up your day job Phil!
  • #14,348
  • May 6, 2008 5:39am May 6, 2008 5:39am
I didn't use 1 hour charts in my trading before, Saka has stated the reason - they are very risky, and there is too much temptation for me. That's why I didn't take this trade too. But, recently I have re-evaluated my point of view, 1hour early entries and retracment entries are part of the system, so I should use it too.
I think we have some problem in terminology , 1 hour early entry we use only when we see that a TC forming on the 4 hour. My candle on G/U closed at 8:00 GMT+3, I missed signal by few pips, and as the London was opening I understood that the price might start running and at 12:00 my signal candle will be too huge for entry, my stop loss will be huge, that was the right time to turn to the 1 hour to see if the price started to run and where to enter.

As for retracment entries, that is a different case. You must have already a signal candle, but you are sure that price will run more in the direction, for example there is enough space to some MA, then you enter on retracment, if retracment doesn't happen then you miss the trade. I don't see how this two techniques can be combined, they work in different conditions.
1 hour entries are more advanced, and should be tested first, that's what I plan to do, if I find something interesting I'll post it here.
  • #14,349
  • Edited 6:41am May 6, 2008 5:45am | Edited 6:41am
ira;Quite so , '1 hr early entry' has been taken to mean alot of differant things recently and confusion has set in. However your post did trip over an interesting idea, if it worked. There might be another way to see retracements.The whole benefit of this thread both to ourselves, and to Phil is to spark off ideas which we can all use.
  • #14,350
  • May 6, 2008 5:48am May 6, 2008 5:48am
Quoting Phillip Nel
EurUsd
I have to believe in the system. That tail tells me the odds may be good.
Phillip you are always ahead of me, my candle closes only in two hours . I will be causious and wait for signal.
Attached Image
  • #14,351
  • May 6, 2008 5:49am May 6, 2008 5:49am
Quoting ira
I didn't use 1 hour charts in my trading before, Saka has stated the reason - they are very risky, and there is too much temptation for me. That's why I didn't take this trade too. But, recently I have re-evaluated my point of view, 1hour early entries and retracment entries are part of the system, so I should use it too.
I think we have some problem in terminology , 1 hour early entry we use only when we see that a TC forming on the 4 hour. My candle on G/U closed at 8:00 GMT+3, I missed signal by few pips, and as the London was opening I understood that the price might start running and at 12:00 my signal candle will be too huge for entry, my stop loss will be huge, that was the right time to turn to the 1 hour to see if the price started to run and where to enter.

As for retracment entries, that is a different case. You must have already a signal candle, but you are sure that price will run more in the direction, for example there is enough space to some MA, then you enter on retracment, if retracment doesn't happen then you miss the trade. I don't see how this two techniques can be combined, they work in different conditions.
1 hour entries are more advanced, and should be tested first, that's what I plan to do, if I find something interesting I'll post it here.

You have the concept absolutely correct. If you miss a trade by a few minutes and it ran so that your stoploss is to big you can switch to lower timeframe to time a better entry then just blindly going in. It takes some experience and some backtesting to prove the validility of it.
  • #14,352
  • May 6, 2008 6:00am May 6, 2008 6:00am
I find these bar highs interesting. They are like buses. you wait for ages for one and then three come at once!. They do seem to be holding the price recently. This latest one is not quite a three bar high, but very near. The line is question is around 1.5532.
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  • #14,353
  • May 6, 2008 6:04am May 6, 2008 6:04am
Quoting ira
As for retracment entries, that is a different case. You must have already a signal candle, but you are sure that price will run more in the direction, for example there is enough space to some MA, then you enter on retracment, if retracment doesn't happen then you miss the trade. I don't see how this two techniques can be combined, they work in different conditions.
1 hour entries are more advanced, and should be tested first, that's what I plan to do, if I find something interesting I'll post it here.
Yes, after candle has been closed and the signal comes, sometimes the price is retraced, sometimes it is not.
It is hard to tell whether the price will be retraced so that we can get a better entry.
Maybe we can watch the previous candle body or strength to decide if the price will retrace.
Who has better idea about the candle retracement? Thanks.
Rhythm, Motion, Emotion and Risk Reward.
  • #14,354
  • May 6, 2008 6:07am May 6, 2008 6:07am
Quoting napeharm
ira;Quite so , '1 hr early entry' has been taken to mean alot of differant things recently and confusion has set in. However your post did trip over an interesting idea, if it worked. There might be another way to see retracements.The whole benefit of this thread both to ourselves, and to Phil is to spark off ideas which we can all use. Not simply following what Phil does.
As long as the ideas tap into and align itself with the rhythm of the market as set out in this system as price moves in correlation with the moving averages then it is fine. The moment it deviates from that then it is no longer the system as taught. People can use whatever indicators as long as it brings you into the rhythm of the market as taught here.
  • #14,355
  • May 6, 2008 6:09am May 6, 2008 6:09am
Exactly, you know that is what i meant!
  • #14,356
  • May 6, 2008 6:55am May 6, 2008 6:55am
This trade was a bit iffy for me, but I took it as a live trade. Not so much from the point of making money, but more to gain confidence in pulling the trigger when real cash is involved, which is where I can struggle sometimes.
Out on 1 lot for 25, 2nd lot to BE.

Thanks Phillip

Quoting Phillip Nel
EurUsd
I have to believe in the system. That tail tells me the odds may be good. Stoploss I have set 33 pips down as I believe the tail has done the damage.

The reason for the trade is I like trading tails at the right place. This was a pullback to the breakout TL and that price has closed above the 21ema and pulled back to it(below it and went above it with a tail) satisfying the rule that says it might go to the 89sma.

The price action worries me a bit as it went down and up some distance. Lets see if this one is going to work.

I have to believe the system otherwise my word is not worth it.
  • #14,357
  • May 6, 2008 7:08am May 6, 2008 7:08am
BenStevo;Bravely done,nice one!
  • #14,358
  • May 6, 2008 7:12am May 6, 2008 7:12am
Quoting BenStevo
This trade was a bit iffy for me, but I took it as a live trade. Not so much from the point of making money, but more to gain confidence in pulling the trigger when real cash is involved, which is where I can struggle sometimes.
Out on 1 lot for 25, 2nd lot to BE.

Thanks Phillip
I didn't take the E/U because it seemed to me there was still a trend line right above the price at first entry point, this was eventually overcome although for the first hour it held. Once broken the stop was too big and the trade therefore no good.
  • #14,359
  • May 6, 2008 7:19am May 6, 2008 7:19am
Quoting Phillip Nel
EurUsd
I have to believe in the system. That tail tells me the odds may be good. Stoploss I have set 33 pips down as I believe the tail has done the damage.

The reason for the trade is I like trading tails at the right place. This was a pullback to the breakout TL and that price has closed above the 21ema and pulled back to it(below it and went above it with a tail) satisfying the rule that says it might go to the 89sma.

The price action worries me a bit as it went down and up some distance. Lets see if this one is going to work.

I have to believe the system otherwise my word is not worth it.

Edit 1.
Closed 50% after 20pips. Set remainder to -20pips for BE at worst
Oh, Phillip, I enter also, and set 1 TP 30pips. Now the price has retraced. I am really aggressive than you. It seems that this is not a good habit.
Plan your trades and trade your plans
  • #14,360
  • May 6, 2008 7:36am May 6, 2008 7:36am
Quoting saka
Oh, Phillip, I enter also, and set 1 TP 30pips. Now the price has retraced. I am really aggressive than you. It seems that this is not a good habit.
With a tail like that I expected the price to move much quicker to at least 25-30pips gain. When it stayed between 1.5500 and 1.5520 for some time I decided to close 50% after 15-20pips.
Price has retraced but I still favour the upmove. The +20 profit on 50% and -20stoploss on the remainder is a very defensive approach when uncertain but still give your decision a chance to mature with a BE at worst.
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