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4 Hour Strategy (MACD)

  • #14,281
  • May 5, 2008 10:16pm May 5, 2008 10:16pm
Maxster,
Here is my version from what I can tell of the proper fib placements. However, I have some questions...1) Bo used the daily fibs as market directions. Does that mean that we are in an up trend with the EUR and I should only look to trade that way for now? 2) I believe the intraday can last greater than 24 hours if the fib levels are not broken, correct? Are the swing (in gray) correct?
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  • #14,282
  • May 5, 2008 10:20pm May 5, 2008 10:20pm
here's the hourly
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  • #14,283
  • May 6, 2008 12:25am May 6, 2008 12:25am
Two bar highs=lines drawn in the sand on both Euro and GBP, we will see if they hold.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Click to Enlarge Name: may6.2.bar higheuro.gif Size: 21 KB
  • #14,284
  • May 6, 2008 12:26am May 6, 2008 12:26am
Nice to see you back Ira.
  • #14,285
  • May 6, 2008 12:41am May 6, 2008 12:41am
Thank you Phillip and Napeharm, feels like home !
Yesterday TC on G/U was a nice one, too bad I didn't feel tuned with the market. I did some backtesting on EUR and GBP for March and April yesterday and the results are excellent. That again proves that we must be focused, not be looking for trades but take them without fear when they come, just like Phillip does!
Attached File(s)
File Type: doc test march2008EUR.doc   425 KB | 853 downloads
File Type: doc test aprilEUR 2008.doc   268 KB | 746 downloads
  • #14,286
  • May 6, 2008 12:50am May 6, 2008 12:50am
Exactly.Refreshing clarity........
  • #14,287
  • May 6, 2008 12:51am May 6, 2008 12:51am
GBPUSD
Time: 04:00 (GMT+1)
MACD: Possible Bearish TC (not confirmed)
Price: anticipating it going down after retracement to EMA21 (already made 1 on Mon, 05/05/08); under 1.9740 that may act as resistance
Calculations:
Open price: 1.9724
SL Price: 1.9752, SL: 28 pips
TP price: 0.5/1.9705, 0.5/1.9665, TP: 39 (19, 59) pips
SINGLE OPENING.
R:R-ratio: 1.39.
Conclusion: trade is OK.
Result:
waiting till bar closes and if we see a TC; if so and SL&R:R are Ok, enter, else - continue watching
Attached Image
  • #14,288
  • May 6, 2008 12:54am May 6, 2008 12:54am
I dont know about you people, but somehow i dont want the Euro to go up, its looking tired and ambiguous. Also i use a 40sma and its just under it implying to me resistance. We shall see.
  • #14,289
  • May 6, 2008 1:00am May 6, 2008 1:00am
My anticipations for EURUSD, GBPUSD for 06/05/08 according to rithm (first two pictures) and analysis of yesterday's anticipations with current data (second pair of images). On 05/05/08 GBPUSD went mostly according to red line and EURUSD gave some "hybrid" result - went down as according the blue line (like a TC after retracement) but then moved up (red line)
Attached Images
  • #14,290
  • Edited 5:28am May 6, 2008 1:00am | Edited 5:28am
The GbpUsd graph was created 2min before candle closure. It has given a red TC bar on the MACD at candle close.

I will enter on a retrace even that SL is less than 50.The reason being that we are in a triangle and price just came off the bottom TL yesterday on its way back up. Price has formed two bars with equal highs off the 21ema. I will go short on 50% retrace and set my stoploss at -30. That will give a chance to bail out of the trade should it goes above the previouse 2 bars indicating an up move. This will just provide me with some space to manage the position.

Will take 50% profit around 1.9700

Entered at 1.9733
SL 1.9763
TP 1.9674

Edit 1
Closed 50% at 1.9710 and set remainder at BE

Edit 2
1.9700 reached. Set remainder 25trailing stop

Edit 3
Remainder closed at 1.9670 by 25 trailing stop
Total gain (23+66)/2 = +44,5
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  • #14,291
  • May 6, 2008 1:02am May 6, 2008 1:02am
I got my wish then. Euro macd turned red on the last bar, so no ambiguity about going long. I am happy now.......
  • #14,292
  • May 6, 2008 1:05am May 6, 2008 1:05am
Euro.
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  • #14,293
  • May 6, 2008 1:20am May 6, 2008 1:20am
Quoting ira
Thank you Phillip and Napeharm, feels like home !
Yesterday TC on G/U was a nice one, too bad I didn't feel tuned with the market. I did some backtesting on EUR and GBP for March and April yesterday and the results are excellent. That again proves that we must be focused, not be looking for trades but take them without fear when they come, just like Phillip does!
Ira, you always do great job on becktesting. Thank you!
Plan your trades and trade your plans
  • #14,294
  • May 6, 2008 1:23am May 6, 2008 1:23am
Quoting Phillip Nel
The GbpUsd graph was created 2min before candle closure. It has given a red TC bar on the MACD at candle close.

Entered at 1.9733
SL 1.9763
TP 1.9674
Philip. I also entered for TC of GU. But I set SL @ 1.9755 which is the previous candle's high. Why do you detemine to set it @ 1.9763?
Plan your trades and trade your plans
  • #14,295
  • May 6, 2008 1:27am May 6, 2008 1:27am
You people have the jump on me then because i have no TC on GBP.
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  • #14,296
  • May 6, 2008 1:33am May 6, 2008 1:33am
Quoting Yorik
Sorry, I'm not sure if I understood you correctly.. In this case I could have put SL (if entered) below the low of 19:00 1H bar (GMT+1) which was 1.9678. I'm choosing SL on the chart - no calculations.
OK, you set your stop based on the lows of the 1-HOUR-Chart ??

Is that a technique you use: MACD analysis on 4h, and stops based on 1h development?
  • #14,297
  • May 6, 2008 1:34am May 6, 2008 1:34am
Quoting napeharm
You people have the jump on me then because i have no TC on GBP.
Same with me but that's a nice example of that MACD is just a confirmation. Similar case was last tuesday on EURUSD (29/04/08) (I had a TC with a bar equal to the previous)
  • #14,298
  • May 6, 2008 1:36am May 6, 2008 1:36am
Quoting napeharm
You people have the jump on me then because i have no TC on GBP.
My picture
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Plan your trades and trade your plans
  • #14,299
  • Edited 1:54am May 6, 2008 1:39am | Edited 1:54am
Quoting RemingtonTJ
OK, you set your stop based on the lows of the 1-HOUR-Chart ??

Is that a technique you use: MACD analysis on 4h, and stops based on 1h development?
In fact, I'm still searching. If I can find a "nice" place for a SL on 4H, I'll put it there (extremum, bar's high/low etc). But rather often such a SL appears to be too big (and not long ago that made me miss a number of good trades - remember Phillip posted his charts with possible trades for the month?) So I either need to pass the trade or I go to 1H or even 5min searching for a "technically" valid point to put my SL.

Edit: Here it is, that my post - having analysed Phillips possible trades I came to a conclusion that I missed 4 out of 7 or 7 out of all 12 trades because of a SL>50 pips. So I decided that I should be looking for possible smaller SL on lower TF
  • #14,300
  • May 6, 2008 1:41am May 6, 2008 1:41am
Cheers saka, thats what i wanted to see, we looking at differant stuff on our charts.
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