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Jacko's Forex House of Pleasure and Pain

  • #3,661
  • May 2, 2008 1:14pm May 2, 2008 1:14pm
Quoting rnl16616
Is there a strong discretionary component to what is considered a dip? It seems that there must be otherwise there is a real possibility of missing an upward trend. So either case below would be considered a dip dependent on circumstance and your own view of the market?

For example the price for the EUR/USD has recently dropped from 1.6000 to 1.5400. After the initial price fall 23-25Apr08 to 1.56000 it then consolidated for a few days and after a "high" of ~1.5650 the price "dipped" back to 1.5600? That would then be the buy on dip opportunity? [Of course it continued to fall to around 1.5400 but then hindsight is a wonderful thing! ]

Or is dip interpreted more mechanically using "peaks" and "troughs" and support lines [and the 50% line] view of price movement? So the support line was at ~1.5400 based on previous price action 24Mar08 and so the "dip" was actually the entire move from 1.6000 to 1.5400?
We look for entries using the 50% fib level. Since the overall trend is upward, after a small retrace, the market usually returns to its normal trend. Depending on the timeframe you choose to trade, your fib level will be different. I think most of us use the 4h chart in deciding our entries, anything less than that has too much noise. Hope that was helpful...
Live From Los Angeles
  • #3,662
  • May 2, 2008 1:45pm May 2, 2008 1:45pm
Where is the 50% fib draw from


Quoting panhandler
We look for entries using the 50% fib level. Since the overall trend is upward, after a small retrace, the market usually returns to its normal trend. Depending on the timeframe you choose to trade, your fib level will be different. I think most of us use the 4h chart in deciding our entries, anything less than that has too much noise. Hope that was helpful...
  • #3,663
  • May 2, 2008 2:58pm May 2, 2008 2:58pm
Quoting toddanderson
Where is the 50% fib draw from
Jacko's method looks for entries at the 50% fib. The exact place of your fib depends on the recent high and low you choose in the time period you are trading. Typically the market is headed upward, you select a high and low point for your fib, and you look for the market to take a retrace to the 50% fib level, at which point you enter the market with the anticipation of a trend resumption. There is more to this method than just the fib, so I suggest you read Jacko's recent post about the guidelines of this method. I have no idea where the 50% is right now, I would suggest you wait until the market is less volatile to look for an entry point. Hope this was helpful...
Live From Los Angeles
  • #3,664
  • May 3, 2008 6:46pm May 3, 2008 6:46pm
[quote=razldazl;1982458]
Quoting ernesto
Ernesto maybe you could send him a pm as this has absolutely nothing to do with Jacko style trading...this is Jackos journal afterall, thanks, Raz
I totally agreed. Guys and Gals, please please read this carefully: "Do on to others as you want it done on you" Imagine if YOU started a thread and people just go on there and start bombarding it with all others IRRELEVANT topics not RELATED to what you had envision the thread to be? How would you feel? Let me give you another example, you all are on here for Forex related trading and discussions that why it is called Forex Factory. What if all of sudden everyday you come in here to check and all the discussion is about STOCKS trading? It is not that stock trading is not good or not profitable? But there is another forum for that. Same thing with strategy, it is not that your (or anyone else) strategy or technique is not good, there is another thread or place for it. This is Jacko's PA thread and we all should keep it at that PERIOD.

Jacko has graciously and unselfishly take the time to share with us his technique....all he asked is that we keep this thread purely on PA an AH discussions because the same has happened before in another forum that he has to stop posting there. Myself and I believe all us whom has been following this thread for so long do not want that to happen here. Jacko is starting to post on here again just a couple of days ago. Let's show him some respect!

I RESPECTFULLY request that we all respect others, not just to Jacko, but to all members. Let this thread be all about Price Action and Anti-Hedging discussions. (With that said if any of you have any saying to rebute or comment for me I welcome you to PM me....do not post here. Let this thread start clean again with PA and AH.)

Thank you very much for your consideration in advance!!!!

And THANK YOU Jacko for starting to post again. Please continue to post because there are many, many more of us who are eagerly to learn.
  • #3,665
  • May 3, 2008 9:12pm May 3, 2008 9:12pm
[quote=ernesto;1982326]
Quoting SBrickman
Ok, Max.. Thank you. It's just easier to let the computer calculate and display support/resistance, fib projections, highest highs, lowest lows, etc... But some people prefer buttons over zippers.

Hi,
already saw lots of your postings... personally find your method great because I am a programmer myself and know about the power of computing... what I am very interested in: were you able to define a profitable trading method based on your computed projections?

Thanks for giving some insight.
I started another thread AS REQUESTED. We can discuss it there.
  • #3,666
  • May 4, 2008 7:03am May 4, 2008 7:03am
I just posted some new eur charts in my journal if anyone is interested. All PA is pointing down on weekly, daily and 4hr timeframes, so I wont be looking for any long entry just yet...take care, Raz
Never say never.
  • #3,667
  • May 4, 2008 11:05am May 4, 2008 11:05am
Quoting razldazl
I just posted some new eur charts in my journal if anyone is interested. All PA is pointing down on weekly, daily and 4hr timeframes, so I wont be looking for any long entry just yet...take care, Raz
Indeed. Patience is the key. There was a lot of potential to lose a lot of money in the last 10 days.
The market reveals who we really are...
  • #3,668
  • May 4, 2008 12:01pm May 4, 2008 12:01pm
Quoting shadowninja
Indeed. Patience is the key. There was a lot of potential to lose a lot of money in the last 10 days.
Those are some words of wisdom indeed!

Patience is THE KEY to this method, and it takes time to develop if your used to tradeing quite frequently.

I'm finding it a challenge to stay out of trades and wait to buy on the dips.
I'm sure it gets easier over time.

This method is still the BEST I've seen and useing the AH is very impressive.
It has been a difficult 10 days because if you bought at the AH from a previous long you would of got stopped out on the AH trade and would have to be patiently sitting on the sidelines, since you don't AH an AH position.

I must admit I did go short, seeing the opportunity, yet I do know this is not standard procedure, neither will it be, this trend will resume.
  • #3,669
  • May 4, 2008 10:13pm May 4, 2008 10:13pm
Actually, if you look at the weekly chart, you'll see that this dip is a normal retracement for EU. According to the method, you'd want to buy at about 1.5200, which is the 50% retracement from the latest weekly swing, and a psychological even number level. Personally, I'll be waiting for a confirmation of the end of this retracement, then jumping in long... OR, if there is a confirmation that the trend has in fact changed, I'll go short. But there is absolutely nothign in my charts that tells me this is a trend change.

Regards,
C

Quoting rnl16616
Is there a strong discretionary component to what is considered a dip? It seems that there must be otherwise there is a real possibility of missing an upward trend. So either case below would be considered a dip dependent on circumstance and your own view of the market?

For example the price for the EUR/USD has recently dropped from 1.6000 to 1.5400. After the initial price fall 23-25Apr08 to 1.56000 it then consolidated for a few days and after a "high" of ~1.5650 the price "dipped" back to 1.5600? That would then be the buy on dip opportunity? [Of course it continued to fall to around 1.5400 but then hindsight is a wonderful thing! ]

Or is dip interpreted more mechanically using "peaks" and "troughs" and support lines [and the 50% line] view of price movement? So the support line was at ~1.5400 based on previous price action 24Mar08 and so the "dip" was actually the entire move from 1.6000 to 1.5400?
{Promotion Removed}
  • #3,670
  • May 5, 2008 10:08am May 5, 2008 10:08am
In post 3649, I had suggested an entry at 1.5400, due to it being an area of prior support and resistance and a big dip. The bounce up has not been as strong as I would have thought so I think it would be prudent to colse the trade now at 1.5475 for 75 pips and wait for another stronger entry. I only posted this in case anyone else bought my argument and also entered at 1.5400 and I wanted to let them know what I was doing.
Camptrader
  • #3,671
  • May 5, 2008 11:53am May 5, 2008 11:53am
Quoting camptrader
In post 3649, I had suggested an entry at 1.5400, due to it being an area of prior support and resistance and a big dip. The bounce up has not been as strong as I would have thought so I think it would be prudent to colse the trade now at 1.5475 for 75 pips and wait for another stronger entry. I only posted this in case anyone else bought my argument and also entered at 1.5400 and I wanted to let them know what I was doing.
I was planning on entering at 1.5400 as well, as I discussed in my journal. I decided to leave the area alone as I saw no evidence that the market was near a bottom ( no increased "spikiness" or PA). I think I will hold off until we see some better price action, or a lower level, or both.

You still made some nice pips! Not a bad trade.
  • #3,672
  • May 5, 2008 3:50pm May 5, 2008 3:50pm
Hi Static, thanks for your input but I think you are wizer than I since I made less pips than I risked. Banked 75 pips but risked 100 pips. I only placed a small size trade since I thought it was a higher risk than I would like but in my own defense I was also relying on the AH if the trade closed for a loss.
Camptrader
  • #3,673
  • May 5, 2008 4:33pm May 5, 2008 4:33pm
I'm waiting for higher highs and higher lows. Basic definition of a trend.
The market reveals who we really are...
  • #3,674
  • May 5, 2008 4:42pm May 5, 2008 4:42pm
Quoting camptrader
In post 3649, I had suggested an entry at 1.5400, due to it being an area of prior support and resistance and a big dip. The bounce up has not been as strong as I would have thought so I think it would be prudent to colse the trade now at 1.5475 for 75 pips and wait for another stronger entry. I only posted this in case anyone else bought my argument and also entered at 1.5400 and I wanted to let them know what I was doing.
I was looking at 1.5400 as a possible entry mainly due to my belief there had been a resistance turned support level around that number back in March (I posted this in Zoopy's journal at the time). As I had already taken a losing trade on the way down around the 1.5700 level I decided to wait to see what would happen once it hit this level. Personally I see that it went through and then came straight back to the 1.5400 and used it as a minor support before now slowly heading north again. I showed patience but I believe it cost me a reasonable trade through possible fear of another loss.

As I write I would have around 20 pips locked in with a 100 pip TSL (as would yourself if the trade had been left open). Having a look at your trade I am curious why you closed the trade as opposed to setting the stop at B/E as it had made the 1.5500 a couple of hours prior to your post, and then letting your trade play out as per the TSL?

Still 75 pips can't be shunned, especially in this market climate.

Cheers,

K8
  • #3,675
  • May 6, 2008 4:32am May 6, 2008 4:32am
Quoting shadowninja
I'm waiting for higher highs and higher lows. Basic definition of a trend.
Good idea - patience is a virtue. I think Jacko would likewise wait but, being relatively new to forex and Jacko's style of trading in particular, I am happy to be corrected if wrong.
Good luck with your trades.
every Saint has a past. Every Sinner has a Future
  • #3,676
  • May 6, 2008 8:11am May 6, 2008 8:11am
Hi!

Would you say the upward trend is strong enough at the moment to be entering long any time soon?

I see upward trend from open on sunday night, tha last day and the last 4 hours. I`m I right, or do I have to get me a 5 year old?

Based on fundamentals I would go long, but I just wondered if anyone had some toughts on this...

Felix
  • #3,677
  • May 6, 2008 8:27am May 6, 2008 8:27am
From my very limited experience I can see that we now have 2 up candles on the daily chart and what appears to be a rising trend channel on the 4 hour chart. Interesting PA at 15400 level where the down move stopped. Also interesting PA today at the 15500 level. However this may just be a small correction for the down move from 16000. I'm still waiting patiently but if I am honest I dont know what for.

Perhaps we should share our thoughts on Higher Highs and Lower Highs etc. If that is in the spirit of this thread.

TP
  • #3,678
  • May 6, 2008 10:46am May 6, 2008 10:46am
I am currently in a AH.
I just posted this in Bo's thread, since the Skunny one appears to be dead. The Fibs on the weekly look interesting for a long - don't you agree?

If people think that this is too 'Zipperish' , I will refrain from posting non Jacko style Fibs here.

Ian
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eu-weekly-6may08.gif Size: 22 KB
  • #3,679
  • May 6, 2008 11:33am May 6, 2008 11:33am
Quoting Khornate8
I was looking at 1.5400 as a possible entry mainly due to my belief there had been a resistance turned support level around that number back in March (I posted this in Zoopy's journal at the time). As I had already taken a losing trade on the way down around the 1.5700 level I decided to wait to see what would happen once it hit this level. Personally I see that it went through and then came straight back to the 1.5400 and used it as a minor support before now slowly heading north again. I showed patience but I believe it cost me a reasonable trade through possible fear of another loss.

As I write I would have around 20 pips locked in with a 100 pip TSL (as would yourself if the trade had been left open). Having a look at your trade I am curious why you closed the trade as opposed to setting the stop at B/E as it had made the 1.5500 a couple of hours prior to your post, and then letting your trade play out as per the TSL?

Still 75 pips can't be shunned, especially in this market climate.

Cheers,

K8
K8,
I guess the answer to your question as to why I closed the trade is that, I thought 1.5500 might act as a stronger resistance than it did (FEAR) and since we are still trending down in the short term the moves down can be fast. So I thought 75 pips would be a reasonable place to exit. It was a judgement call.
It looks like we might see the downward push now but starting from 1.5600 and not 1.5500 as I thought might happen.
Camptrader
  • #3,680
  • May 6, 2008 12:13pm May 6, 2008 12:13pm
Quoting ianf0ster
I am currently in a AH.
I just posted this in Bo's thread, since the Skunny one appears to be dead. The Fibs on the weekly look interesting for a long - don't you agree?

Ian
Hey Ian,

I do believe that we hit the .382 retrace level of that swing and that your fib is upside down

-

On another note: IMHO SBrickman the whole point of starting that other thread was that you would stop posting indicator ridden items into this one. Other thread participants may feel inclined to press the "cleanup" button for off-topic posting eventually.

I'm staying out of the whole "should or should not be here" stuff personally(I used to think a journal were to be 90%+ journal owner posts), but I would rather prefer it if people made sense(=> if there is a thread for it, put it there and lay things here to rest, else why have another one in the first place). It just incites unrest otherwise.
Trust price. Know yourself.
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