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  • #381
  • Jan 25, 2007 10:31am Jan 25, 2007 10:31am
Quote
Furthermore, even if I did choose to share strategies with ppl here, most will not have access to the fx derivatives I trade.

Ok, last word on the subject. You're probably doing abitrage with fx options. And if you are, options are too risky for me anyway, despite the fact I work in investment banking.
If it's too good to be true, it probably is.
  • #382
  • Jan 25, 2007 10:42am Jan 25, 2007 10:42am
Quoting SimonK
Whatever the strategy is, you can bet it has already been discussed somewhere on this forum

Correct me if I'm wrong, but the only strategy that sccz97 has hinted at is abitrage (possibly between retail and direct-to-market) brokers. Even then, after taking into account the spread, I dont know if you could make more than a few pips profit.

Maybe you could enlighten us a little more sccz97, or even drop a few more subtle hints
there are too many fx arb strategies that you can find simply by scourign the web. And tbh, with the advent of electornic trading and the wealth of different markets available, those that you'd think would not be feasible in an already efficient market like fx can actually be done by retail traders. You just need to think a little outside the box and apply anything you might know wrt engineering/physics. I can divulge some simple information on one strategy simply because my implementation has become less profitable in the last few months due to a change in the way cnx chooses to handle ioc orders. Triangular arb has existed for a very long time and a lot of prop desks used to have systems that did just this 24/5. With spreads as tight as they are on the majors this can be very profitbale indeed if done correctly. A ex-colleague at the last fund I was at was in the process of developing a modified version of this with the quant desk that adapted metropolis transport techniques and quasi monte carlo simulations to provide almost real time probabilities of each potential trade. I believe they calculated the input parameters from years worth of tick and market depth fx data.

As to your comment on 'only a few pips', this is exaclty what scalping or high freq trading in general aims to achieve. Once you have a system that is profitable, it will take a large change inthe market to break your system and you'll most likley notice this quite soon. THe fact that your number of trades is so high, your pnl volaitlity is not affected so much by the bad trades.

And, while I may have mentioned an arb that is possible (not really feasible) between diff retail brokers due to the high freqency of differing prices, it's not something I would choose to do as spendign the time to transfer money between accounts to keep margins up would be a waste of time and most likely trigger any anti-money laundering checks all fsa regulated firms must have.
  • #383
  • Jan 25, 2007 10:43am Jan 25, 2007 10:43am
Quoting SimonK
Ok, last word on the subject. You're probably doing abitrage with fx options. And if you are, options are too risky for me anyway, despite the fact I work in investment banking.
trading options outright of course is risky, just like trading any instrument outright. I suggest you read up on gamma trading/hedging
  • #384
  • Jan 25, 2007 10:47am Jan 25, 2007 10:47am
Well, thanks for sharing some info Sccz97, after all that is what this forum is about.

And even if you dont think you shared much with us, it gets the wheels of thought into motion and perhaps leads us to new strategies.
If it's too good to be true, it probably is.
  • #385
  • Jan 25, 2007 11:05am Jan 25, 2007 11:05am
Quoting SimonK
Well, thanks for sharing some info Sccz97, after all that is what this forum is about.

And even if you dont think you shared much with us, it gets the wheels of thought into motion and perhaps leads us to new strategies.
no problem ... just that ppl need to realise that those who have really made a lot of money trading (excluding those in the banks) have been innovators.
  • #386
  • Jan 25, 2007 11:20am Jan 25, 2007 11:20am
Quoting sccz97
Your thoughts on me smashing others trading systems couldnt be more wrong. The very fact that you think that rather than me picking out potential flaws says more about you than you care to show.

What I will say is that I have more than one trading system. HAving just one system is the problem most traders have when their systems start losing money. You need more than one trading system, preferable across a diverse instrument set to decrease pnl volatility. Furthermore, even if I did choose to share strategies with ppl here, most will not have access to the fx derivatives I trade.

Lastly .... smthing for you to think about. If you had a strategy that you knew would be become less profitable the more ppl traded it, would you really share it with anyone? IF the answer is yes, then you're either lying through your teeth, or incredibly naive
Well, thanks my friend, for the long lecture.. two, I guess.
You are not answering our question yet. What's the fastest way to get order fill in besides autoclick software?

Another lecture is ignorance
Trade the Possibilities
  • #387
  • Jan 25, 2007 11:36am Jan 25, 2007 11:36am
Quoting Fisher
Well, thanks my friend, for the long lecture.. two, I guess.
You are not answering our question yet. What's the fastest way to get order fill in besides autoclick software?

Another lecture is ignorance

And I've already told youthat I wouldnt divulge that information. Other ppl knowing my edge will decrease my bottom line. I'm all for helping by pointing out potential pitfalls in others' strategies but my charity will not reach as far as affecting my pnl. The only thing I'll say is think about each and every step that happens when you trade the news via some autoclick software. If you can find a way of decreasing latency then you prob wouldnt be able to do it even if I told you. You cant do any of this stuff with off the shelf products and online signals
  • #388
  • Jan 25, 2007 11:48am Jan 25, 2007 11:48am
Quoting mazidah37
Today my AmazingEA-1.1.8.ex4 went a strange behaviour
Mazidah37 I pm You answer.

Regards,

Andrew
  • #389
  • Jan 25, 2007 5:20pm Jan 25, 2007 5:20pm
Quoting Andrew_e
Mazidah37 I pm You answer.

Regards,

Andrew
You was already PM to me or will be, I still havent received any PM yet....anyway thnks for your help Andrew.
  • #390
  • Jan 25, 2007 6:20pm Jan 25, 2007 6:20pm
Quoting sccz97
Furthermore, even if I did choose to share strategies with ppl here, most will not have access to the fx derivatives I trade.
If you're trading retail FX or cnx, you won't get to the "derivative" he mentions. It's in a different universe, but liqiud.


And I agree, if more and more people trade one "way" pnl goes away. Keep the edge as long as possible.
Let the music set you free
  • #391
  • Jan 25, 2007 7:59pm Jan 25, 2007 7:59pm
Quoting sccz97
you've obviously not understood anything I've written otherwise you'd already know that I'm not going to share anything. If more ppl traded the way I do, my pnl would decrease dramatically. WHat I've achieved has been over many years as a developer and trader at institutions. I'm finally ata stage where I can trade my own money and make more than I did while at the banks. As i said before ... you can simply ignore what I say or perhaps take heed and start thinking ahead before your current strategy ceases to be profitable.
Point taken that you do not want to share your trading strategy which must be an arbitrage play. But no arbitrage will last forever so just like news trading if you have an edge, make the most of it. You have mentioned the pitfalls of news trading several times and sometimes it comes across as if you dont consider news traders worthy. No trading strategy is safe or foolproof including news trading but I dont think anyone should assume that news traders only have one trading strategy or dont know how to trade.

Does an arbitrageur, for example, know how to trade apart from setting up his arbitrage whether it be triangular arbitrage or otherwise ? May be, may be not. It's obvious that news traders have changed the dynamics of the forex market to the extent that it has affected the bottom line and the trading strategies of some participants; just look on the forum of one popular retail forex broker and you will see that news traders have not received a particularly warm welcome. In the end though, what matters is the P & L and if you making pips, you are doing something right.
  • #392
  • Jan 26, 2007 1:51am Jan 26, 2007 1:51am
Quoting PipStar
Point taken that you do not want to share your trading strategy which must be an arbitrage play. But no arbitrage will last forever so just like news trading if you have an edge, make the most of it.
I woudlnt say no arbitrage lasts forever. There's always arbitrage, it's just that as more and more ppl take advantage of it, the harder ir becomes unless you're the person who is consistently the fastest to arb the market back inline. THe last fund I was at focussed on capital structure arbitrage and convertible arbitrage. Both funds returned over 20% each year in their heydays. To say that these arb strategies will soon become unprofitable is untrue. It all depends on what is involved in finding the arb opportunities. At the moment, the bulk of new opportunities lies in the credit space with cdos. The reason for the massive amount of opps there is because there is no closed form solution to pricing these instruments and therefore most are offered at a discount. This is no different from the way option traders made money long before the black scholes option pricing model provided the market with an accurate method to price american and european options. But yes, you do need to make the most of the opps when they are abundant.

Quoting PipStar
You have mentioned the pitfalls of news trading several times and sometimes it comes across as if you dont consider news traders worthy. No trading strategy is safe or foolproof including news trading but I dont think anyone should assume that news traders only have one trading strategy or dont know how to trade.
IF that's the way I've come across let me make it clear now that that was not my intention. I've merely tried to show those who think they've come across the holy grail in these autoclick signal providers that there are merely taking advantage of the way retail brokers and their platforms work. It would indeed be presumptious of me to think that many news traders have only one straegy, or dont know how to trade. Let me clarify that I am usually talking aobut the autoclick traders who blindly follow their signal provider without understanding ... or worse... wanting to understand why they trade and how. For example I coulndt not help but sigh when I read of somone asking why he could not trade usdchf for uk figures, (and before you think anything, yes, usdchf can be influenced by certain uk figures like surprise rate hikes but for the most part not). The likes of bk on this forum show the makings of a trader that will in the long run be profitable, willing to learn and do research on his own to understand why certain trades went wrong etc. I've made comments on this site that in my eyes shoudl prove helpful to ppl for those who wish to learn and try and discover things by themselves but it seems that all too often ppl want things handed to them on a plate making comments like "Tell us your strategy then".
  • #393
  • Jan 26, 2007 5:29am Jan 26, 2007 5:29am
and your signature ..... if you like the film you shoudl read den of theives where the quote greed is good originates
  • #394
  • Edited 5:13pm Jan 30, 2007 3:48pm | Edited 5:13pm
Hi,

I came across this software which claims to be able to enter a trade in < 250 milliseconds after receiving a trigger on the news released from a server and people are claiming that it is making money.

It is from {link removed, see rule #3} and I just subscribed $2.99 for a 14 day trial. Has anyone heard of / used this service ?

We developed an api to help put in orders for straddle type news trades at oanda, but I am getting the impression that they really don't like news traders.

Feedback most appreciated.

Many thanks,
  • #395
  • Jan 30, 2007 5:53pm Jan 30, 2007 5:53pm
They probably can deliver your order to your broker in nano seconds, but that does not mean you will be filled before the spike. I think it is probably a better idea to learn how to trade utilizing both fundamental and technical concepts. I believe the brokers will close the door on auto-click trading immediately after economic releases. Please let us know about your results .

best of trading to you!
  • #396
  • Jan 30, 2007 9:03pm Jan 30, 2007 9:03pm
any thoughts on tomorrows news in the AM for the usd?
  • #397
  • Jan 30, 2007 11:39pm Jan 30, 2007 11:39pm
Heres are my 2 cents on what going to happen tomorrow. The info coming out for the US in the morning will be positive for US and hence traders will buy up USD. Then later on the interest rate statement comes out( i beleive it will be held constant at 5.25%). The American economy seems to be doing good, so there should be no need to reduce or raise interest rates.

Again, this is my sepculation. I have no clue if im correct, i guess i will find out tomorrow.

Whatever happens, i hope i am on the right side of the trade

happy trading all
  • #398
  • Jan 31, 2007 4:38am Jan 31, 2007 4:38am
I really don't know how good the service is yet, will report my progress this week and next.


Quoting lordo
They probably can deliver your order to your broker in nano seconds, but that does not mean you will be filled before the spike. I think it is probably a better idea to learn how to trade utilizing both fundamental and technical concepts. I believe the brokers will close the door on auto-click trading immediately after economic releases. Please let us know about your results .

best of trading to you!
  • #399
  • Jan 31, 2007 5:11am Jan 31, 2007 5:11am
Whats the general consensus on cable going below and staying below based on todays economic events?
  • #400
  • Feb 1, 2007 2:37pm Feb 1, 2007 2:37pm
Quoting jansher21
Hi,

I came across this software which claims to be able to enter a trade in < 250 milliseconds after receiving a trigger on the news released from a server and people are claiming that it is making money.

It is from {link removed, see rule #3} and I just subscribed $2.99 for a 14 day trial. Has anyone heard of / used this service ?

We developed an api to help put in orders for straddle type news trades at oanda, but I am getting the impression that they really don't like news traders.

Feedback most appreciated.

Many thanks,

I've used this service for 2 months now.

In 2 months I have placed 7 trades (I have been preapred to place another 6-8 but the software did not recommend entry therefore I made no entry on those). There were about 2-3 more trades tha the software did recommend entry that I was unable to be at my computer for. I watched the live video of those trades (and he records every trade for you to watch back) and they made anywhere from 8-30 pips, as well.

Here are my personal results from Dec 1, 2006 through Jan 31, 2007:

trade 1: 1 pip (I think I was pretty nervous on this one, being new)
trade 2: 28 pips
trade 3: 40 pips
trade 4: 4 pips
trade 5: 27 pips
trade 6: 11 pips
trade 7: 8 pips

Overall, Dustin delivers exactly what he promises. He advises entry and exit points, based on technical support and resistance analysis. He warns about conflicting data (and his newest version of the software gives an audible call with a voice saying "CONFLICTING DATA" while you are in the middle of the trade so that you can decide to exit).

He also advises everyone to keep their finger on the on/off button for the autoclick function. If you see the price jump before the release (leaked information, possibly), you are supposed to turn off your autoclick so that you don't get in too late. This is EXACTLY what happned this morning with the ISM Manufacturing news release. I saw the price jump so I turned off my autoclick. If I had not done that I would have lost 2-7 pips (which was the report from most people who didn't turn it off).
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