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4 Hour Strategy (MACD)

  • #14,241
  • May 5, 2008 1:40am May 5, 2008 1:40am
I saw 7 setups on GBPUSD last week.

Among them 3 had SL<50 pips and R:R>=1 (with my SL and TP-s) - #42 or 43, 47 (#42 and 43 were on the same RT, just on successive bars, so they may be treated almost as 1 setup).

(For me) "Should have been taken" trade was #47 - 47 (0.5/22+0.5/0=1/11).
#42 (43) was a nice setup as well but counter-trend (1), one had to open "against" SMA200 (2), #42 was at (my) night and #43 - one should enter after retracement, after it formed the upper shadow (3), what I yet don't practice, so I passed it. If taken, it could bring from 31 (0.5/20+0.5/43=1/31) to 10 (0.5/20+0.5/0=1/10) pips.

My practical result was: #47, +11 pips.
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  • #14,242
  • May 5, 2008 2:08am May 5, 2008 2:08am
Yorik; It is generally accepted that the 4hr signal has factored in the news events.Most of them are not high volatility items and so signals have accounted for the direction already when the signal is evident. However there are two exceptions. US interest rate announcements and NFP.

The latter two represent a much greater risk and need to be avoided. Since the system produces all the necessary pips during the month without risk, trading these events is pointless and uncessary..........even if they appear to work.
  • #14,243
  • May 5, 2008 2:46am May 5, 2008 2:46am
Last week I got a wrong deal with Gu's TC(Philip successed quit with BE for his good risk management and low spread). I find that I forget the important line 1.9740 of GU which plays an important role in GU's trend. See different TF below
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Plan your trades and trade your plans
  • #14,244
  • May 5, 2008 2:53am May 5, 2008 2:53am
I dont think i would trade the GBP even if it blew me a kiss!.This is my take on the pairing and with an extended view suggesting the coloured support and resistance areas go back some way.
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  • #14,245
  • May 5, 2008 2:58am May 5, 2008 2:58am
Euro.....
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  • #14,246
  • May 5, 2008 3:38am May 5, 2008 3:38am
[quote=napeharm;1983872]I dont think i would trade the GBP even if it blew me a kiss!.



Napeharm, it's like someone's opened the door and a blast of fresh air has come in! Hello to you, and all the new faces here.

UK bank holiday today so I shall be at the garden centre with all the other middle-aged Brits - went to the beach last time and it snowed, so maybe give that a miss this year!!!!

I've been taking a bit of time to get my head around the 5 min system and how to make it fit my trading style. I shall post trades again when I'm sure I've got it OK, don't want to lead anyone astray while I'm still at the early stages. Just had to pop in and say thanks to the newer faces who have injected a real boost back into this thread!

See you all soon,
Rebecca,x.
May all your pips grow into great big fruitful trees
  • #14,247
  • Edited 8:04am May 5, 2008 3:42am | Edited 8:04am
Hey Bag Lady!, lovely thing to say .......thanks. I shall be spending two weeks in and around Kelso in August, i have been there twice before and its my first holiday for 10 yrs!, really looking forward to that its a beautiful place......
  • #14,248
  • May 5, 2008 4:07am May 5, 2008 4:07am
Just thought I'd quickly post my take on EU.

If you look at the daily (first chart) you'll see a support line around 1.5338, and price has bounced up off there with a sort of a pin. This is developing into what may possibly be an inverse head & shoulders on the 4hr, plus MACD bullish divergence (shown by convergence of lows on price & MACD). Support from 365ema on 4 hr. I shall be looking for signs of a move up towards the 200sma / 89ema on the 4hr, this will depend on what happens around the 21.

It'll probably all happen while I'm looking at flowering perennials, but I shall be back in business tomorrow so will find out then. Good trading everyone, see you later, Rebecca,x.
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May all your pips grow into great big fruitful trees
  • #14,249
  • May 5, 2008 4:12am May 5, 2008 4:12am
Quoting napeharm
Hey Bag Lady!, lovely thing to say .......thanks. I shall be spending two weeks in and around Kelso in August, i have been there twice before and its my first holiday for 10 yrs!, really looking forward to that its a beautifal place......
The border towns are really bonny, and of course August is Edinburgh festival month, you must go along the Royal Mile and see the street entertainers if you get a chance! I won't hog the thread with Travel Scotland stuff, but send me a PM if you want any help with your holiday plans!! R.x.
May all your pips grow into great big fruitful trees
  • #14,250
  • May 5, 2008 4:42am May 5, 2008 4:42am
If anyone had a 5 min method to follow there was an entry above the 1.5481 on the Euro to the high of the previous day. This was also around the 21 ema also. This wasnt strictly within my criteria for trading that time frame since i am taking trades with the 4hr system signals not against, but took +7 to the weekly pivot anyhow. Something to do whilst i am waiting.
  • #14,251
  • Edited 10:17am May 5, 2008 5:01am | Edited 10:17am
TC off the 21ema.
SL to 1.9768.
If to much try to enter on 38% Fib retrace

I am just concern for a possible tripple bottom in the price 1st and 2nd of May with this candle. Lets see how it works out.

Edit 1
Sorry. Was in a restaurant so did quickly post the signal
Entered at 1.9708
SL 1.9758(decided to take 10off to make SL 50). The candle closed strong so I was convinced that it will go.
TP 1.9630 or there about.

Closed 50% after 40pips. Was able to watch a bit live so let it run past the normal25-30 profit taking.Set remainder at BE.

Edit 2
Set remainder on a 30 traling stop

Edit 3
Closed remainder at 1.9660 When TL was hit for the second time.
Total average gain = (+40 +48)/2 = +44
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  • #14,252
  • May 5, 2008 5:07am May 5, 2008 5:07am
Quoting Phillip Nel
TC off the 21ema.
SL to 1.9768.
If to much try to enter on 38% Fib retrace
Philip, I still worry about 1.9700 line, which makes lots of bounces and undesicions
Plan your trades and trade your plans
  • #14,253
  • May 5, 2008 5:10am May 5, 2008 5:10am
Quoting Phillip Nel
TC off the 21ema.
SL to 1.9768.
If to much try to enter on 38% Fib retrace

I am just concern for a possible tripple bottom in the price 1st and 2nd of May with this candle. Lets see how it works out.
Ive been watching this since first thing this morning. Price first broke the 1H trend line and this was also an early 4H TC signal. But there was still another 4H trend line just below and I didn't take the trade because of this. Now this has been broken although my 4H has still not closed the TC looks fairly certain but now my stop is too big. 9700 is now being tested and I suppose it could rebound here and 9733 would seem like a nice area to get in for me, but I will wait now for the 4H close because I still have 2 hours to go before the close and I also wonder whether any possible bounce off 9700 could be so strong as to cancel the TC signal on the 4H.
  • #14,254
  • May 5, 2008 5:13am May 5, 2008 5:13am
Signal bar closed with a too big SL for me and I cancelled entering at bar close. Maybe will enter if it retraces to the 1.9720 or 1.9740-50.

What would you say, people? What were your actions?

Edit: while I was writing and looking at the chart, answers for my questions have been posted already
  • #14,255
  • May 5, 2008 5:18am May 5, 2008 5:18am
Quoting Yorik
Signal bar closed with a too big SL for me and I cancelled entering at bar close. Maybe will enter if it retraces to the 1.9720 or 1.9740-50.

What would you say, people? What were your actions?

Edit: while I was writing and looking at the chart, answers for my questions have been posted already

A bit wide for me too.. wait for a retracement as well. Those double 00s may give a retrace..
  • #14,256
  • May 5, 2008 5:24am May 5, 2008 5:24am
I am thinking about shorting EURJPY based on a possible rounded MACD top and resistance at the 89SMAvg
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  • #14,257
  • May 5, 2008 5:32am May 5, 2008 5:32am
Quoting RemingtonTJ
I am thinking about shorting EURJPY based on a possible rounded MACD top and resistance at the 89SMAvg
Might be better to wait for the close of current candle... Looks like a double top as well.
  • #14,258
  • May 5, 2008 5:35am May 5, 2008 5:35am
Quoting winston
Might be better to wait for the close of current candle... Looks like a double top as well.
right, I'll wait
  • #14,259
  • May 5, 2008 5:41am May 5, 2008 5:41am
GBP did blow me a kiss in the end. I took the TC short at 1.9717 then and exited at the low for the previous day for +10 where the price has stalled, for the moment. I did have a longer target of a trendline at around 1.9670. Realistically after the price has fallen 83 on a Bank Holiday with little news, what are the chances?. I thought not much in the short term so i took profit when i could.
  • #14,260
  • May 5, 2008 5:53am May 5, 2008 5:53am
You pays your money and takes your choice. The GBP heading further south. I am glad i exited so as not to wait another 45 mins for that. We shall see if it reaches anyones target. Mine if the red dashed line. I have not re entered on 5 min chart, just watching.
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