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FXTradepro "LUCKY 7" Journal

  • #41
  • Apr 30, 2008 11:37am Apr 30, 2008 11:37am
Hi Dan, congrats on your strategy, I find it to be really nice, especially with the pound/u.s.

I'm just curious, with the gbp/usd, do you always use the same stoploss and if so, have you had any problems with the added volatility with ths pair compared with the eur for example?

thanks so much for sharing this!
  • #42
  • Apr 30, 2008 12:40pm Apr 30, 2008 12:40pm
Quoting Chartist
Hi Dan, congrats on your strategy, I find it to be really nice, especially with the pound/u.s.

I'm just curious, with the gbp/usd, do you always use the same stoploss and if so, have you had any problems with the added volatility with ths pair compared with the eur for example?

thanks so much for sharing this!
Hello Chartist.........Thanks for stopping by my Journal. Generally, I stick with my SL=10 Pips and TP=50 Pips for the "LUCKY 7" Strategy and I do Trade GBPUSD when I see a set-up I like. Sometimes too much volatility can cause problems, however, I select my entries and pairs very carefully and trade only when I see the right set-up.

Regards,
  • #43
  • Apr 30, 2008 1:08pm Apr 30, 2008 1:08pm
When I checked my Trade from last night at about 8 AM EST
this morning and saw that the Sequence had NOT hit the
Target overnight, I decided to watch for a few minutes and try
to close out early before the 8:15 News Release. Thankfully, I
was able to close this Sequence MANUALLY with a small,
but reasonable profit. It's a good thing I did as the Sequence
would have FAILED a short time later.


DATE: Wednesday, April 30, 2008

Time of Signal: Wednesday, April 30, 2008 - 1:08 AM EST

Currency Pair: EURUSD

Initial Entry: BUY @ 1.5576

EA Entry Option: Price Entry

TP & SL Settings: TP=50 SL=10

Lot Sequence using Standard Lots: 7 Entries
0.5 - 0.6 - 2.25 - 2.7 - 3.24 - 3.89 - 4.67


Trade RESULTS:

Initial Entry opened on Wednesday, April 30, 2008 @ 1:08 AM EST

Sequence Of Trades Closed EARLY (Manually) for 20 Pips at 4th Entry on Wednesday, April 30, 2008 @ 8:14 AM EST

2.7 Standard Lots for Final Entry

Net Profit: $205.00
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD 4-30-2008.jpg Size: 62 KB
  • #44
  • Apr 30, 2008 4:25pm Apr 30, 2008 4:25pm
DATE: Wednesday, April 30, 2008

Just a quick note to mention that I did NOT enter any Progression Scalp trades today (Wednesday).
With the FOMC Statement due at 2:15 EST I felt that Market conditions would be too High Risk.

Sometimes it's just better to sit-out and Trade another day - There is always Tomorrow.....
  • #45
  • Apr 30, 2008 7:51pm Apr 30, 2008 7:51pm
1) It appears that you manually discontinue the strategy if ANY news for the pair you're trading is going to be released. Would this be correct?

2) What is your entry strategy? It almost appears from your chart, that your entry is based upon a moving average crossover... but I'm sure it's probably more complex than that.

Thanks for your sharing this strategy!
  • #46
  • Apr 30, 2008 8:02pm Apr 30, 2008 8:02pm
Quoting tunaboy
1) It appears that you manually discontinue the strategy if ANY news for the pair you're trading is going to be released. Would this be correct?

2) What is your entry strategy? It almost appears from your chart, that your entry is based upon a moving average crossover... but I'm sure it's probably more complex than that.

Thanks for your sharing this strategy!
Hello Tunaboy.......Welcome to my Journal. I wouldn't say that I ALWAYS discontinue prior to News, however, I do tend to the more conservative side. Many times News could actualy take us to our profit Target BUT if the Sequence is not at a lower Progression Level or the price before the News is close to the Buy or Sell area, I will take my profit early and run.

My entry Strategy is NOT an MA Cross. The MA is on my Chart so that I can form a BIAS as to direction. I use a combination of things to determine my entry - however there are so many things that I look for that it would be difficult to explain in a single Forum Post. I would suggest that you look for a period of consolidation and try to time your entry so that you have a high probability of playing the break from that range.

If you want to discuss this further please contact me via email or PM.

Dan
  • #47
  • May 1, 2008 9:16am May 1, 2008 9:16am
I am on a ROLL, however, understand that results are NOT always this good.
Sometimes the Market cooperates - other times it does NOT.......


DATE: Thursday, May 1, 2008

Time of Signal: Thursday, May 1, 2008 - 12:47 AM EST

Currency Pair: EURUSD

Initial Entry: SELL @ 1.5633

EA Entry Option: Price Entry

TP & SL Settings: TP=50 SL=10

Lot Sequence using Standard Lots: 7 Entries
0.5 - 0.6 - 2.25 - 2.7 - 3.24 - 3.89 - 4.67


Trade RESULTS:

Initial Entry opened on Thursday, May 1, 2008 @ 12:47 AM EST

Sequence Of Trades Closed at 3rd Entry on Thursday, May 1, 2008 @ 3:20 AM EST

2.25 Standard Lots for Final Entry

Net Profit: $1,015.00
Attached Image
  • #48
  • May 1, 2008 11:51am May 1, 2008 11:51am
A "Lucky 7" Progression Scalp that I took during
the NY Session Today.....


DATE: Thursday, May 1, 2008

Time of Signal: Thursday, May 1, 2008 - 10:47 AM EST

Currency Pair: GBPUSD

Initial Entry: SELL @ 1.9717

EA Entry Option: Immediate Entry

TP & SL Settings: TP=50 SL=10

Lot Sequence using Standard Lots: 7 Entries
0.5 - 0.6 - 2.25 - 2.7 - 3.24 - 3.89 - 4.67



Trade RESULTS:

Initial Entry opened on Thursday, May 1, 2008 @ 10:47 AM EST

Sequence Of Trades Closed EARLY for 20 Pips at 2nd Entry on
Thursday, May 1, 2008 @ 11:20 AM EST

.60 Standard Lots for Final Entry

Net Profit: $70.00
Attached Image
  • #49
  • May 1, 2008 12:07pm May 1, 2008 12:07pm
Dan,
Your sense of timing is amazing... I was 1 out of 2 last night. I profited on the eurusd, but lost on the gbpusd. I was using a 12/60 sl/tp ratio for both currency pairs. I'm considering transistioning to a swing method by increasing the sl/tp ratio to 50/250 or 75/350 for these pairs. This will give the pairs more room to withstand the "whipsaw" effect and await the breakout... in such a case a trend break-out over the coarse of a few days or a week is the plan. And if I'm concerned about the trend, then I'll have a chance to take a partial profit...

Walt
  • #50
  • May 1, 2008 12:33pm May 1, 2008 12:33pm
Quoting jones247
Dan,
Your sense of timing is amazing... I was 1 out of 2 last night. I profited on the eurusd, but lost on the gbpusd. I was using a 12/60 sl/tp ratio for both currency pairs. I'm considering transistioning to a swing method by increasing the sl/tp ratio to 50/250 or 75/350 for these pairs. This will give the pairs more room to withstand the "whipsaw" effect and await the breakout... in such a case a trend break-out over the coarse of a few days or a week is the plan. And if I'm concerned about the trend, then I'll have a chance to take a partial profit...

Walt

They say that "TIMING" is everything (LOL).......Actually, timing is very important but not the whole thing.

I have traded this set-up with larger TP/SL settings as you suggest but I personally prefer less exposure and shorter periods of being in the Market with this Strategy. One of the nice things about this Method is that Traders can determine what fits best for them and trade the Strategy accordingly.

You will see how often I am wrong on direction, yet I can still win my Sequences. The key is to avoid the tight range and enter at a time and place where the Market is poised to move either way. When we don't get that right we lose.
  • #51
  • May 1, 2008 3:29pm May 1, 2008 3:29pm
Quoting jones247
Congrats Dan!!!

This system (the Lucky 7) with a r:r of almost 1:1 is absolutely awesome. The only drawback is that the 1st two sequences give a relatively modest payout. Although, such a payout each day would yield a 50% return on a $10k equity balance in one month, assuming 20 such days of modest winnings.
I am calling for calm
The maximum risk/reward is 1.75 :1 which is closer to 2:1. As you mentioned some winners close out for only 25% of the maximum, making the risk reward on the strategy much worse. You need to win at least twice as many times as you lose but, given the smaller profit on early closed winners, It becomes more like needing 3 winners to every one loser to be successful. This strategy takes skill as much as any other technique. Remember Dan has spent years of focus developing this. A beginner will need to practice and expect to lose before he is able to pick the optimal market conditions and accurately time the entry.
Quote
The only drawback is that the 1st two sequences give a relatively modest payout. Although, such a payout each day would yield a 50% return on a $10k equity balance in one month,
Given the risk involved, the returns you are suggesting here will gut your account on a bad month. you are risking 17.55% on the first trade and will have lost half your account balance after only 3 consequitive losers. To take the next trade you will be risking 37% of your remaining balance. This is not a holy grail! It can lose and have losing streaks. Correct risk management is required
I like the system very much but thought I would mention these points before we get some newbies toasting there accounts believing the worst they can do is 50% return every month
BTC Return This Year: na
  • #52
  • Edited 4:54pm May 1, 2008 4:31pm | Edited 4:54pm
MAC you are correct in many of your assumptions. Bear in mind that the typical Sequence (in my personal case) does not close on the first 2 entries. This does occur, but more often the Sequences close after the 3rd Level. That is one of the reasons that the gains at Levels 1 and 2 were calculated with lower amounts. This helps to control the worst case scenario. I am not talking about the "Progression Scalps" here, but the usual "let it run" Sequence.

Also, I do not advocate trading my Lot Sizing with only $10,000, however, you do not need to keep more than this with your Broker at any one time. The advantage of this should be obvious given the fact that many Brokers have had trouble staying in business. Also, the Strategy can easily be scaled down so that smaller amounts can be traded safely.

It is true that there is skill involved in Trading this method successfully. Any aspiring Trader needs to understand that there really is no "set and forget" system that will bring consistant profits. I have NEVER maintained that this is a "Holy Grail, however, for me, this Strategy has worked well and continues to work well. Also, I do Teach this method of Trading privately, which can help shorten the learning curve. Please feel free to contact me if you have an interest.

As I always say....Trade CAREFULLY.

Dan
  • #53
  • May 1, 2008 6:42pm May 1, 2008 6:42pm
I have some personal Family Business to attend
to on Friday and with the Non-Farm Payroll report due,
it is a good day to take off and stay out of the Market.

As a NOTE - The Results I have experienced for the past
2 weeks are BETTER than usual. I do experience periods
like this, however, they are not Typical. I tend to view my
results on a Monthly Horizon & while I am almost always
positive for the month, I do experience some losses.

I just wanted everyone to understand that some losses
are part of the "Game".

Have a GREAT WEEKEND !


Winning Sequences: 7
4 Full Sequences
3 Progression Scalps

Losing Sequences: 0

TOTAL Profit for the Week: $2,800.00

2 Week TOTAL: $8,040.73


I invite Forex Factory Members to comment on this Journal.
Your input is appreciated !
  • #54
  • May 2, 2008 7:42am May 2, 2008 7:42am
Just a quick note before I get busy with my personal
Family Business today:

Had I traded EURUSD overnight the Sequence would
most likely have been a loss (many other pairs would
have been fine).

I just wanted everyone to understand that not every
trade will be a winner. Even if I had sustained a loss
from that trade, however, the week would still have
been Net Positive.

Have a Great Weekend !
  • #55
  • May 4, 2008 12:11pm May 4, 2008 12:11pm
I received a PM today from one of the Moderators here at Forex Factory that someone complained to them that I was selling EA's HERE. Because of that I have received an Infraction.

While I do use my own EA for this Strategy, it is not available at this site.

There are many "clones" of that available here at FF, but please trade them carefully in any LIVE Account.

The Journal continues..........
  • #56
  • Edited 4:06am May 5, 2008 3:46am | Edited 4:06am
Quoting FXTradepro
I received a PM today from one of the Moderators here at Forex Factory that someone complained to them that I was selling EA's HERE. Because of that I have received an Infraction.
I've been paying close attention since the first of your Progression Sequence postings.

For what it's worth, I have a very high regard for the tone, the quality, and the value of your contributions to this Forum.

Thank you!
  • #57
  • May 5, 2008 4:33am May 5, 2008 4:33am
Quoting Technical
I've been paying close attention since the first of your Progression Sequence postings.

For what it's worth, I have a very high regard for the tone, the quality, and the value of your contributions to this Forum.

Thank you!
I second that, keep going Dan, I really enjoy reading this thread
  • #58
  • May 5, 2008 9:05am May 5, 2008 9:05am
Quoting Technical
I've been paying close attention since the first of your Progression Sequence postings.

For what it's worth, I have a very high regard for the tone, the quality, and the value of your contributions to this Forum.

Thank you!
Thanks Tech and Alex for the kind words.....

Dan
  • #59
  • May 5, 2008 9:09am May 5, 2008 9:09am
Not a great way to start the Week. Here is one
of those Lost Sequences I've been talking about.



DATE: Sunday, May 4, 2008

Time of Signal: Monday, May 5, 2008 - 12:55 AM EST

Currency Pair: USDCHF

Initial Entry: SELL @ 1.0542

EA Entry Option: Price Entry

TP & SL Settings: TP=50 SL=10

Lot Sequence using Standard Lots: 7 Entries
0.5 - 0.6 - 2.25 - 2.7 - 3.24 - 3.89 - 4.67



Trade RESULTS:

Initial Entry opened on Monday, May 5, 2008 @ 12:55 AM EST

Sequence Of Trades Closed at a LOSS at the 7th Entry
on Monday, May 5, 2008 @ 7:08 AM EST

4.67 Standard Lots for Final Entry

Net LOSS: - $1692.20
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDCHF 5-5-2008.jpg Size: 51 KB
  • #60
  • May 5, 2008 10:16am May 5, 2008 10:16am
Hi Dan,

here is another Dan
I read about your sequences some time last week.
Using my own entry criteria I made 2 trades last week. "Unfortunately" winning both on the first level.

Today I also traded a short Swissy first, but fortunately I started the sequence a little later. So I won the 6th level to the north.

I would really like to say thank you for sharing this sequence with us.

I love the way it works and accepting losing trades as a part of the trading without destroying ones account.

Keep up posting
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