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Cesarnc's market talk, gossips, rumours & fun

  • #8,141
  • May 3, 2008 10:58pm May 3, 2008 10:58pm
Now why didn't they have those parades back in the 30's and 40's in Deutchland. Maybe it would have mellowed out old Adolf.

Instead he must of got himself some crank or straw candy.
  • #8,142
  • May 4, 2008 12:10am May 4, 2008 12:10am
The Fed will boost its TAF auctions to $75 billion from the current $50 billion, beginning with the May 5 auction. It will also expand its swap agreements with the European Central Bank and Swiss National Bank.

http://www.forbes.com/markets/feeds/...fx4963162.html
  • #8,143
  • May 4, 2008 2:08am May 4, 2008 2:08am
Quoting Clouds
The Fed will boost its TAF auctions to $75 billion from the current $50 billion, beginning with the May 5 auction. It will also expand its swap agreements with the European Central Bank and Swiss National Bank.

http://www.forbes.com/markets/feeds/...fx4963162.html
What effect will the FED's boosting TAF auctions have on the dollar? Is it positive or negative for dollar?
Expected the unexpected
  • #8,144
  • May 4, 2008 2:53am May 4, 2008 2:53am
Quoting scyang
What effect will the FED's boosting TAF auctions have on the dollar? Is it positive or negative for dollar?
Feel free read the article.
  • #8,145
  • May 4, 2008 3:54am May 4, 2008 3:54am
Quoting Clouds
Feel free read the article.
Oh, I have seen this news, and it's probably already priced in on Friday. Do you think it will drive the pair further down on Monday? UK and Japanese markets are both closed Monday.
Expected the unexpected
  • #8,146
  • May 4, 2008 4:24am May 4, 2008 4:24am
Quoting scyang
Oh, I have seen this news, and it's probably already priced in on Friday. Do you think it will drive the pair further down on Monday? UK and Japanese markets are both closed Monday.
Not sure what pair you are referring too.
  • #8,147
  • May 4, 2008 6:25am May 4, 2008 6:25am
Quoting Clouds
Not sure what pair you are referring too.
Sorry I was referring to eurusd. It's dropped so much already in the last week or so.
Expected the unexpected
  • #8,148
  • May 4, 2008 10:07am May 4, 2008 10:07am
Back in business?!?

Strongly considering to buy GJ 209.20 (target 220 not far fetched - not far fetched at all)

- It would be breach of last month high, also above March's high - also breach of 100 days EMA (not closing above since November)
- March's and April's candles coupled form a pin-bar
- UJ seems to have breached 100 days EMA (first time closing above it since December)

Also thinking about shorting Euro on Apr's candle pin-bar.

(Cable has put 4 consecutive dojis in the monthly, which is screaming for a big fall)

Hopefully my long-expected long term entry...

Thoughts?
  • #8,149
  • May 4, 2008 10:29am May 4, 2008 10:29am
cesar,

Euro should fall to 1.49 before assuming an upward thrust, look at the charts. 1.49 was when 1.60 possiblity was first opened up as 1.4950 was major barrier before 1.50/1.54

As for GJ I don't think the bull trend is fully established yet. Looks like a triple top on 4hr with resistance holding tight at 208.90/209.00 area

UJ hasn't breached the downward channel yet still struggling with 105.54 fibo 78.6 of the move from 108 down to 96. All in all there are big resistances that need to be cleared before I believe that we're headed back to the 220/120 on the GJ/UJ.

Not to mention EJ is headed to below 160 on the daily, it tested the 160.60 trendline once on friday and bounced up.

Just my .02 btw I don't know how to post charts from GFT forex as I'm on a mac running parallels system. Sorry.
Patience + Humility + Study = Success
  • #8,150
  • May 4, 2008 1:03pm May 4, 2008 1:03pm
Quoting DutchTrader
cesar,

Euro should fall to 1.49 before assuming an upward thrust, look at the charts. 1.49 was when 1.60 possiblity was first opened up as 1.4950 was major barrier before 1.50/1.54

Pin bar in action, I think 1.49 is reasonable. Thanks for sharing.

As for GJ I don't think the bull trend is fully established yet. Looks like a triple top on 4hr with resistance holding tight at 208.90/209.00 area

That's why I'm calling long 209.20 (maybe a lil bit more? don't know yet). As to have upwards momentum confirmed before jumping in the bandwagon.

UJ hasn't breached the downward channel yet still struggling with 105.54 fibo 78.6 of the move from 108 down to 96. All in all there are big resistances that need to be cleared before I believe that we're headed back to the 220/120 on the GJ/UJ.

UJ on its way to crack the channel (in the weekly). I think when (if) GJ cracks 209, UJ will be out of the channel. I'll keep it under the glass.
  • #8,151
  • May 4, 2008 1:13pm May 4, 2008 1:13pm
Quoting cesarnc
Back in business?!?

Strongly considering to buy GJ 209.20 (target 220 not far fetched - not far fetched at all)

- It would be breach of last month high, also above March's high - also breach of 100 days EMA (not closing above since November)
- March's and April's candles coupled form a pin-bar
- UJ seems to have breached 100 days EMA (first time closing above it since December)

Also thinking about shorting Euro on Apr's candle pin-bar.

(Cable has put 4 consecutive dojis in the monthly, which is screaming for a big fall)

Hopefully my long-expected long term entry...

Thoughts?
Also on uj we have bullish (rsi) divergence on weekly and daily charts...same with usdchf, and bearish divergence on aussie, following weekly pin and most recently a 4hr pin...
Never say never.
  • #8,152
  • May 4, 2008 1:29pm May 4, 2008 1:29pm
wou nice analises...might add only that 160.66 might act as support if tested since thats the third time or the fourth we are above 160s, euro below 5444 looks cheap, since this level was tested a couple of times on the way up ....and if holds on the way down, we are in a big 600 pip range...400 up 200 down etc,...gu...since the rate diferental 3%,...the devils was tested 2 times recently after rebound, it looks like the level below 700 is a buy for a retest the 2.0, ...so i see 2 rebounds and 1 continuation, untill the sell on may and go away takes its place,...
its just money
  • #8,153
  • May 4, 2008 1:54pm May 4, 2008 1:54pm
Commodities in general are also off highs (oil sort of an exception).

Commentaries have it cash is moving out from commodities inflation-hedge trades back into stocks. This is likely to push dollar up, too.

Dissonant voice is Cramer's (WHO KNEW!?!?!), who says this move to stocks will be short lived. However, you might like to go against him given recent history :

Ranges are also being squeezed, what calls for breakout. Breakout is a bitch to call, so let's leave it as a strike of luck, if happens.

All in all, it's supermarket time to me. Currencies are gonna jump in the basket tomora
  • #8,154
  • May 4, 2008 2:19pm May 4, 2008 2:19pm
Good stuff, cesar. You're right on the 209, that means we've got bullish momentum indeed.
Patience + Humility + Study = Success
  • #8,155
  • May 4, 2008 3:01pm May 4, 2008 3:01pm
be carefull Bull, a Bear is hungry................
I Deeply Love My Virtual Life In Virtual World , RLC
  • #8,156
  • May 4, 2008 4:04pm May 4, 2008 4:04pm
Quoting notme32
be carefull Bull, a Bear is hungry................
Be careful: I'm coming

http://wildernessafrica.com/blog/wp-...007hyena-0.jpg
  • #8,157
  • May 4, 2008 4:35pm May 4, 2008 4:35pm
I'm thinking some nzd/jpy sounds good, what does anybody else think?
  • #8,158
  • May 4, 2008 4:47pm May 4, 2008 4:47pm
Clouds,

Nzd/Jpy hasn't been able to break thru 82.87 it's been capped. It's about 70 pips from that level. I would watch till europe comes in.
Patience + Humility + Study = Success
  • #8,159
  • May 4, 2008 5:52pm May 4, 2008 5:52pm
Microsoft-Yahoo deal is off. History will tell whether Yahoo's officers are greedy bastards or smart tycoons...

This was a Forbes-or-Mad Magazine decision
  • #8,160
  • May 4, 2008 6:09pm May 4, 2008 6:09pm
Quoting cesarnc
Back in business?!?

Strongly considering to buy GJ 209.20 (target 220 not far fetched - not far fetched at all)

- It would be breach of last month high, also above March's high - also breach of 100 days EMA (not closing above since November)
- March's and April's candles coupled form a pin-bar
- UJ seems to have breached 100 days EMA (first time closing above it since December)

Also thinking about shorting Euro on Apr's candle pin-bar.

(Cable has put 4 consecutive dojis in the monthly, which is screaming for a big fall)

Hopefully my long-expected long term entry...

Thoughts?
Probably won't know until Tuesday (with Japan and UK closed) but if the speculation is that the BOE will be on hold then another attempt could be in the cards......

HOLLA
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