J's Journal

If you read through the history of this journal, you will see countless transitions. Since 2003 I have tried so many methods. Recently i think i am relaxing into who i am as a participant in the markets. What i am doing is no "holy grail." To those in search of it, you have my sincerest best wishes!

MY STYLE:
Investor (vs scalp, day or swing trader)
Skilled hobbyist (vs career trader)
A no pressure, no sweat participant risking a small account that is increased monthly by additional small sums
Technician influenced by some fundamentals
Enjoy watching not just one pair, or all pairs, but just a few that are the smoothest traders.
Trade weekly charts
Use nested linear regression channels to "see" long term and shorter term trends
Use long term established support and resistance levels rounded to the nearest 100 pips
Also will watch the 50 SMA.
Will enter long just above support, move up to resistance level, exit and then look for a decent entry again.

Stevie T (Steviet) has influenced me more than anyone else. His recent move to longer term charts and his 50 SMA method have helped me to identify the smoothest longer term trending pairs. If you know him, besides knowing his stuff... he is just a good guy.

Some other good guys: FxChi, my2buoys (I wish he were still here), NoBread.

I'll post my progress monthly.

4/11/07 at 8:03 EST
Entry Long 5 Units GBPJPY at 235.79 on Mouteki entry signal; ATR SL 150

4/11/07 at 9:50ish
Took 2 units at 20 PIPs profit

4/11/07 at 11:30ish
Castor Fey says will probably go to 237

4/11 at 14:00
bouncing on, and penetrating 235.93 level. If it opens below that level on a 5 minute chart then i will close all but one unit at modest profit. Should i be using a 15 min chart instead of the 5?

4/11 14:05
opened below. closed all but 1 unit at 6 pip profit. ugh. in the context of the long term it is still no more than a normal retrace, but i am not comfortable with significant draw downs.

4/11 14:42
closed remaining unit at 76 pip loss. was planning to let it run, but totally unsure of myself at this point.

4/11/07 at 9:00 EST
Entry Short 5 Units USDCAD at 1.1435 on Mouteki entry signal; SL 50

4/11/07 at 11:21
Been bumping up against 1.1444 level

4/11/07 11:38
opened above 1.1444 and continued
Exited whole position at 20 pip loss

4/11/07 13:24
if i had stayed in it would be down to 1.422... a 13 pip profit

http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/progress.gif

4/11/07 at 9:45
4 Units EURJPY Long at 160.44 on Mouteki entry signal; SL 75

4/11 14:15
opened below 160.25; closed all but 1 unit at 22 pip loss

4/11 14:37
change in trade management expert resulted in mistake. close remaining unit at 21 pip loss.

4/11/07 12:09
Entered Long 5 units USDJPY at 119.41 on Mouteki signal; SL 60
Felt a little anxiety at entry.

4/11 14:40
after trade manager EA mistake, decided to close everything, call it day and rethink my strategy.
closed 5 units at 13 pip loss.

RESULTS:
2 units of GBPJPY at 24 = 48 pips per unit
2 units of GBPCHF at 3 = 6 pips per unit
5 units of USDCAD at -20 = -100 pips per unit
3 units of EURJPY at -22 = -66 pips per unit
1 units of EURJPY at -21 = -21 pips per unit
5 units of USDJPY at -13 = -65 pips per unit
1 units of GBPJPY at -78 = -78 pips per unit
19 units of Total at = -276 pips per unit
Average of -15 pips per unit

MOVES I MISSED:
EURCAD 100+
AUDCAD 65
USDCAD 55

EMOTIONS: discouraged. unsure.
THOUGHTS: could have taken more profits sooner resulting in smaller losses
DECISIONS: change take profits to 1 unit at 10 pips, 1 unit at 20 pips, 1 unit at 30 pips, 1 unit at 40 pips and 1 to let run to ATR take profit or stop.

29 Short Trades Closed
280 PIPs (one trade i accidentally set the TP for 0 profit)
4 Short Trades Left Open

1 Long Trade Closed 10 PIPs
10 Short Trades Closed 100 PIPs
11 TOTAL Trades Closed 110 PIPs
5 Short Trades left open

1 Long Trade Closed 0 PIPs (opened & then remembered how the entry broke my rules so closed at break even)
5 Short Trades Closed -160 PIPs
6 TOTAL Trades Closed -160 PIPs (hit one of my 200 pip SL. price exceeded my SL by 1 PIP! hm...)
4 Short Trades left open

May To Date +230 PIPs

One thing i have been doing is adjusting my TP for the swap. Is this a good thing? Should multiple day trades net less as an incentive to avoid them? If that is true, am i violating the core premise of my strategy... that if i identified the prevailing LT trend that the vast majority of my trades should result in profit?

At 5 GMT price broke bottom of long channel on one hour chart. Currently (14 GMT) been 117 pips below channel.

At noon GMT price moved into a range between daily 5SMA on low and S2. Wondering if it will range in that area until oversold condition on 4H and 1H is worked off. If i were going to be home all day, i'd try to take 10 pips on each short move across that range.

YEE HAW! At 14:15 GMT my last old trade (3 days old), was kicked to the curb!

HAVE AN APPOINTMENT SO MAY BE DONE FOR THE DAY :=[
(got back in time to gather up a few more pips) :=]
25 Short Trades Closed +270 PIPs
0 Trades still open :=]

May To Date +500 PIPs

I am wodering if FINALLY, maybe, probably, possibly, amazingly, perhaps too early to tell, and maybe too good to be true, but then again it resonates with me... yes... MAYBE FINALLY i have found my niche. Time will tell.

21 Short Trades Closed +210 PIPs
3 Trades still open

May To Date +710 PIPs

Yesterdays results were completed. Forgot to edit the subject line while it was still possible.

8 Short Trades Closed +112 PIPs
3 Long Trades - closed one before it hit TP... didn't want to take it through the weekend
3 Trades Still Open

May to Date +822 PIPs

Is what you are doing something like this? Preset the dates for you to the ones i am using.

Hey, BD. If you adjust the 3rd channel anchor date to 5/11 at 22:00... if you are on the same server as i am,... you should see that the price is following the channels and crosschannels almost perfectly.

Will check it out tonight. Thnks.

20 Trades Closed for 163 PIPs
4 Trades left open
1071 PIPs to date for May

Using a spread sheet now to record my trades. My manual calculations were shy 100 pips.

I am wondering if there is any value in recording the number of long and short trades separately. Hm.

One last thing. I know i am going to take another loss sometime. Having 3 of the 4 outstanding trades relatively close together in price puts me at increased risk of taking several large losses in the same day (600 PIPs in this case). Going to consider how i might minimize that risk.

10 Trades Closed for 104 PIPs
4 Trades left open
1175 PIPs to date for May

17 Trades Closed for 146 PIPs
4 Trades left open
1321 PIPs to date for May

7 Trades Closed for 0 PIPs
0 Trades left open
1321 PIPs to date for May

LT Trend Changed:
1. spinners on week and day
2. high / low in relation to 5 SMA on low, close and high on the day
3. confirmation of same (#2) on 4 & 1 hour
4. Long LT LRC. In the Short MT LRC Crosschannel,... price found support three times at bottom of LT LRC. Long ST LRC Crosschannel (across MT LRC) is established.

Closed short positions because of probable change in LT trend. Rule... trade only with the LT trend. Cooincidence that i was up 56 pips for the day and the closed position resulted in -56 pips

23 Trades Closed for 161 PIPs
2 Trades left open
1482 PIPs to date for May