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  • #941
  • Apr 24, 2008 9:25pm Apr 24, 2008 9:25pm
Well its been hectic on my charts Mike looking forward to see an update on the big picture.
On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #942
  • Apr 26, 2008 11:40am Apr 26, 2008 11:40am
Quoting Bones
Well its been hectic on my charts Mike looking forward to see an update on the big picture.
I hate to say it, but I agree entirely with you. These charts lately just don't seem like what they used to be and I can't quite get a picture on it. It's still easy to make some profit, but it seems like I'm just out of my head with it and I'm not sure as to why. Hell, I can't even look at g/j right now with the mess that it's in, whereas a month or so ago I could've told you every move it would make lol That's the way this business goes and it is taxing on a person, I don't care what anyone says, because I know this is true. On another note, I'll be posting charts here tomorrow or so. The aussie is looking good for a short after 94 or even a little higher and other than that, I'm just still in my other positions that I previously posted about.

I'm looking for the euro to come down a bit more yet and then I'll be setting up for more longs to come. This could possibly be the same scenario with g/u. We're stuck in consolidation right now and there is good reason for it - to the downside, we have immediate support and to the upside, we have immediate resistance. I'm thinking of posting about losses soon because I'm still sour about that fairly large g/j loss I took about 8 weeks ago. I've made it all back, but I can't stop thinking about it and I really think it's affecting me so I'd like to get that thought completely gone and move on - after all, it's just another hurdle to jump which gets easier with time.
I dream, therefore I become.
  • #943
  • Apr 26, 2008 12:20pm Apr 26, 2008 12:20pm
That’s right Mike the really big moves don’t seem to be there right now( on cable anyway)
I suppose the credit crunch has given everyone the jitters.
On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #944
  • Apr 26, 2008 4:14pm Apr 26, 2008 4:14pm
Quoting mike w
Ok, this is a historic chart of the GBP/USD. Yes, I know hindsight is always correct. This is why I am testing this method.
On this chart, price began movement upwards on around March 13, 2007. After the initial upwards move, it came back down on the 14th to test the 'tunnel' that I spoke of earlier. This would be a fairly good entry point for a long as it was not far off from the first dynamic fib level. After this, we saw solid upwards momentum, then it tested the tunnel area again and bounced yet again.
I wouldn't take that as an A+ trade until after the price action told you that was all the further it would move down.
Now, around March 30th, after solidly moving upwards form our previous entries, we see a test of the first fib level, then price shoots upwards again. Chances are you wouldn't hae gotten into that trade until a much higher price- although it would still be a good trade. Moving on, we'll see an area where you would have gotten burnt, unless you applied the use of channels. This was right around the 5th of April- we saw price move down to test the tunnel area and then we got a reversal signal in the form of a hammer. If you had'nt used channels to show that you were trading right into resistance, you would have lost there.
Moving forward again, we will see that on April 6th we got a test of the first fib level yet again. It breached the first fib level and moved toward the second, only to be stopped halfway having the price action show a bullish/indecisive pin bar. I would have entered here again and loved that ride upwards.
A few days pass and on April 15th, we would see another clear challenge of the tunnel, which ended as a solid bullish pin- another buying point. Can you see how it works now? I will keep posting more charts to confirm. As I sid earlier, if you hadn't used other forms of technical analysis such as the use of channels, you would have had a few losing trades in there. The gains outweigh the losses tremendously though. Any questions or comments so far?
I agree with you man. Hardwork, dedication, desire to succeed are very essential aspects of making it in the forex market. My watchwordmin this market is patience. Cheers
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  • #945
  • Apr 28, 2008 7:55am Apr 28, 2008 7:55am
I placed a short order on the usd/jpy last nightand it rolling inside of consolidation right now. I highly doubt we will surpass that earlier double top so my stop loss is right above there. I'm waiting for a solid time to short g/j down to 189 and add to shorts on u/j down to 85. I'll post charts in a bit, I gotta get some breakfast lol
I dream, therefore I become.
  • #946
  • Apr 28, 2008 7:57am Apr 28, 2008 7:57am
Quoting mike w
I placed a short order on the usd/jpy last nightand it rolling inside of consolidation right now. I highly doubt we will surpass that earlier double top so my stop loss is right above there. I'm waiting for a solid time to short g/j down to 189 and add to shorts on u/j down to 85. I'll post charts in a bit, I gotta get some breakfast lol
Mike my man, agree completely with the double top analysis. Look forward to your further thoughts, enjoy b'fast
Patience + Humility + Study = Success
  • #947
  • Apr 29, 2008 8:35am Apr 29, 2008 8:35am
Quoting DutchTrader
Mike my man, agree completely with the double top analysis. Look forward to your further thoughts, enjoy b'fast
Hey thanks DT, I ended up placing short orders all around lol I put them on the u/j, e/j, and g/j. Yesterday closed as a double high lower close for u/j, a pin bar for g/j, and I just assumed e/j would follow suit. I cashed out most of the positions today but still have a little running on them. We're at support right now on all of them and I think we'll see a bounce from here before heading any lower. I do see those lows on the horizon again though.
I dream, therefore I become.
  • #948
  • Apr 29, 2008 8:38am Apr 29, 2008 8:38am
Quoting mike w
Hey thanks DT, I ended up placing short orders all around lol I put them on the u/j, e/j, and g/j. Yesterday closed as a double high lower close for u/j, a pin bar for g/j, and I just assumed e/j would follow suit. I cashed out most of the positions today but still have a little running on them. We're at support right now on all of them and I think we'll see a bounce from here before heading any lower. I do see those lows on the horizon again though.
Very nice Mike, I did the same...but only with U/J and E/J...great work keep it up...Im still with you on the long run down
The only sovereign I can allow to rule me is reason.
  • #949
  • Apr 29, 2008 8:38am Apr 29, 2008 8:38am
Here are the support attacks that I just mentioned. I'm pretty sure a bounce is in order now to load up the shorts for the ride down although I could be very wrong about this so I am playing it conservatively.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: support attack ej.gif Size: 12 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: support attack gj.gif Size: 12 KB
I dream, therefore I become.
  • #950
  • Apr 29, 2008 8:39am Apr 29, 2008 8:39am
Hey Zack (pearson), you were right on the money with your analysis of g/j brother! Excellent work man!
I dream, therefore I become.
  • #951
  • Apr 30, 2008 8:19am Apr 30, 2008 8:19am
Quoting dagoods
i was joking around good to see ya all haveing some fun
Hey dagoods I'm only here to tell you we all miss you in auslanco's thread ... come back
Discipline + Patience - Fear - Greed = Success
  • #952
  • Apr 30, 2008 1:14pm Apr 30, 2008 1:14pm
Quoting arezab
Hey dagoods I'm only here to tell you we all miss you in auslanco's thread ... come back

thanks ...appreicate the kind words.... unfortunately i have not much that i can post/offer u all.... i am simply scalping along nowadays ...i was demoing for a long time....getting my mojo back going live with a substatial account this week though....i still read what u guys are posting when i get the chance though..... keep up the great work....

ps just listen to quecee and mike and follow your trendlines too.... u dont need me for cripes sake lol
  • #953
  • May 1, 2008 8:16am May 1, 2008 8:16am
I woke up and figured I'd make a post in here as I took a new trade last night. I placed a short order on the eur/gbp and my target is initially going to be 7700. Other than that, my eur/jpy longs and shorts are still going great, along with the eur/usd, gbp/usd, aud/usd, and nzd/usd shorts are still on and I'm waiting for my take profit areas on all of those trades. I'm about to take the eur/jpy shorts off the table though and quite possibly the same with the usd/jpy shorts. I'll post if anything comes up tonight. Have a great day ladies and gentlemen.
I dream, therefore I become.
  • #954
  • May 1, 2008 8:30am May 1, 2008 8:30am
I'd hold on to those shorts on E/J, MW. The 200 ma was just breached and frankly I see a break below that to get us below 159 by the end of the week, or beginning of next week. Your thoughts?
Patience + Humility + Study = Success
  • #955
  • May 2, 2008 11:31am May 2, 2008 11:31am
Quoting DutchTrader
I'd hold on to those shorts on E/J, MW. The 200 ma was just breached and frankly I see a break below that to get us below 159 by the end of the week, or beginning of next week. Your thoughts?
Hey DT, I was thinking the same thing. My stop got taken out but I still ended in profit by taking partial off the table and putting it in the positive. My longs are still good though. Looking at the weekly now, it's a whole new ballgame again and I plan on adding to my previous long position because of the weekly pin bar coming up. I'm looking to see this surpass the previous high of 165 and so I will place one target there and others higher up. The news changed everything for the course of this week. I was really looking to see at least 159 before buying again however, and it does seem like it could be a possibility looking at the monthly chart's 5 sma placement.
I dream, therefore I become.
  • #956
  • May 2, 2008 11:33am May 2, 2008 11:33am
It looks like u/j could be headed up to 107 now and that would pull g/j up to 210, which is that area everyone's been talking about now that has the potential to end this wave up and start the continuation on down. I'll be tentative once we get to this area.
I dream, therefore I become.
  • #957
  • May 2, 2008 11:46am May 2, 2008 11:46am
Good stuff, I've been calling for 107. I'm flat today, took profit but will re-enter UJ once we open on Sunday looking for 107. EJ is bullish as well. The only bearish Jpy crosses imvho are the commodities.
Patience + Humility + Study = Success
  • #958
  • May 2, 2008 11:58am May 2, 2008 11:58am
Quoting DutchTrader
Good stuff, I've been calling for 107. I'm flat today, took profit but will re-enter UJ once we open on Sunday looking for 107. EJ is bullish as well. The only bearish Jpy crosses imvho are the commodities.
I agree with you 100% man. Good analysis!
I dream, therefore I become.
  • #959
  • May 2, 2008 1:24pm May 2, 2008 1:24pm
Quoting mike w
I agree with you 100% man. Good analysis!
Right now UJ is struggling with the 78.6% fibo of the move down from 108, once that goes, we're going to reclaim 107/108 imvho. Let's see what Asia brings us on Sunday night.
Patience + Humility + Study = Success
  • #960
  • May 2, 2008 2:54pm May 2, 2008 2:54pm
Quoting mike w
It looks like u/j could be headed up to 107 now and that would pull g/j up to 210, which is that area everyone's been talking about now that has the potential to end this wave up and start the continuation on down. I'll be tentative once we get to this area.
Quoting DutchTrader
Right now UJ is struggling with the 78.6% fibo of the move down from 108, once that goes, we're going to reclaim 107/108 imvho. Let's see what Asia brings us on Sunday night.
Great stuff guys. My analysis tells me the same. I have no open positions now but it has been a great week . I am looking to get in Sunday night as well on a pullback of gj to 205 area looking for 210, also looking to reenter gu short in the 1.9800 area. I have been shorting rallies all week on the gu. I scalped the gj a bit but not much. The charts are also indicating that the gj could be on the way up to 221ish soon but I have reservations because of the weak pound. Anyway, as usual, we will let price action be our guide and ride the waves which follow, whichever direction it takes us.

Have a great weekend guys.

Bless
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: day2.GIF Size: 25 KB
Patience + Discipline - Greed = Success
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